You'll have to pardon the pun, but I couldn't resist considering how many times I've heard Milwaukee Brewers named in various trade rumors as we get closer to the non-waiver trade dealine.
Prince Fielder is certainly the highest profile name out there in the ethos, and would be an absolute game changer for the right club. Corey Hart is also prominently mentioned, and those two got me thinking (scary, I know), that the Reds division is shaping up to be a hot bed of potential trade activity.
Of the six teams in the division, two are clearly buyers while four are clearly sellers. That's saying something considering there's only one division in all of baseball, the AL West, that looks like a runaway. In fact, I calculate 16 teams still with playoff aspirations, leaving only 14 clearly as sellers across baseball. Four of those are in the NL Central! Of course that's because 2 of the worst teams in baseball, Pittsburgh and Houston reside in the division and Milwaukee and Chicago are probably the most disappointing teams in the NL.
So let's take a look at the buyers first. Cincinnati and St. Louis look as though they will continue to fight for the division AND a wildcard spot all year, and both teams have needs. The Reds appear to have gotten a huge boost from the return of Edinson Volquez to the rotation, but have real bullpen needs beyond Rhodes and Cordero. The lineup looses major punch when Rolen is out, and could use a RH stick, but additions are not likely. Two names that are interesting offensively would be Ty Wigginton and Jermaine Dye. Wigginton is in the Mark Derosa mold, a little pop and an okay glove at a lot of positions, who'd fill in for Rolen much better than Cairo. Dye is a bat I'd rather have than Gomes, but I don't see the payroll strapped Reds paying the free agent for less than half an overpriced season. He's awful defensively as well, so he'd have to be subbed for by Gomes or Heisey. Unfortunately, I think the Reds will continue to reward Gomes for a torrid May with playing time too often down the stretch.
The Cards have a tremendous rotation, but perennially have problems in the bullpen as well. While they've not gotten the offensive production the Reds have this season, it's also hard to envision them adding more than a complimentary offensive piece. The common denominator is a need for bullpen arms, but there just aren't that many out there at a fair price right now. The Reds are currently dumpster diving for veteran free agent arms like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen, which shows you both what the Reds payroll is like and what the trade market is like. Not good either way. It's a sellers market folks, and the prices are very high right now.
I don't predict either team brings in a big name like a Dan Haren. The division may very well come down to what complimentary pieces are able to best contribute down the stretch, more than the impact of a hired gun.
So what about the sellers? Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Chicago all have pieces they'd like to deal. Some are more attractive than others.
Houston has had Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt available for some time. Brett Myers has been added to that list, and is probably the most attractive. Berkman and Oswalt have big salaries, while Myers is more affordable AND has pitched in both the rotation and the pen successfully. My guess is he's the most likely to be moved. I'd thrown out the idea of trading closer Matt Lindstrom, but he's cheap for the Stros for a couple more years, so it would take some good prospects coming back to make it happen. The Astros minor leagues are horrid, probably the worst in the league, so they need numbers more than a single stud prospect. This reminds me of where Pittsburgh was when Neal Huntington took over a couple years ago. It was quantity over quality, and perhaps someone can take advantage of that. The Astros will not take on salary, however, and are notoriously difficult to deal with. Prediction: Myers is it.
Pittsburgh has Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit, Octavio Dotel, and possibly Joel Hanrahan and Brandon Donnelly out of the pen. As bad as the Pirates starting pitching has been, I don't see the starters going anywhere. Dotel is probably the one they'd like to move the most, and the team certainly has been active the last couple of years at the deadline (McLouth, Bay, Nady, etc.). Donnelly has pitched big innings in the playoffs for the Angels and Hanrahan had a brief stint as a closer. 1st time all-star Evan Meek is a name you hear, but I can't see the Pirates trading a good young player that far from arbitration. They only deal guys once they get expensive. They've been rumored to want to move Doumit for two years, but he's poor defensively and has a history of injuries. I don't see it. Prediction: Dotel finds a new home, and maybe they move another reliever.
Milwaukee has Fielder and Hart as mentioned. Fielder is in the last year of an $18M extension, but he's still under team control. Their options are to trade him now, extend him (which seems less and less likely), or offer arbitration. I really think trading him now is the best option. They have Matt Gamel who I still think I can become a good offensive player, and as you can see this year, they need more starting pitching. The asking price for Corey Hart is starting pitching as well, good starting pitching. According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle via mlbtraderumors.com, the asking price for Hart included either Johnathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner from the Giants. That's a heck of a lot for a guy who was rumored to be non-tendered at the beginning of the season. Imagine what they're asking for Fielder? Prediction: both of the top bats on the market get moved, probably to American League teams.
Chicago has so many bad contracts it's not even worth the carpal tunnel syndrome to type them. Suffice it to say there are probably 6,7, maybe 8, maybe more guys they'd like to move, but Ted Lilly is probably the most palatable for a buyer. The New York Mets or even the Yankees could be in play for Lilly. Derek Lee is also a possibility as he will be a free agent after the season, but it's hard to imagine the Cubs kicking in any salary relief in a deal. A team like the Rangers or the Angels might make sense for Lee.
All in all, this should be the most active division in the trade market over the next couple of weeks. It should be fun to watch.
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