(After the loss to the Vikings, and the death of Chris Henry, the heavy hearted Bengals played a heck of a game in a close loss to the Chargers. In the end, it was too much Vincent Jackson against Leon Hall, and a blown coverage at the end of the game set up a game winning field goal for SD).
Bengals v Chargers
I almost didn’t write this week’s primer because in the wake of the death of Chris Henry, football doesn’t seem as important as it did a week ago. I’m forging ahead though, because the Bengals are going to have to as they make the trek to San Diego. On top of everything else they have to deal with, San Diego is the toughest matchup they have faced so far this season. Who knows how the emotion of Slim’s death will affect them. There will undoubtedly be frustrations taken out on the Chargers, but can emotion overcome enough of the deficiencies of this team to get a win? The #2 seed is on the line this week as what amounts to two of the best three teams in the AFC square off. The Bengals are facing a second straight road game, while the Chargers are home after two straight on the road.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Jamall Williams, the all-world Nose Tackle, has been lost to the season since early in the 2009 campaign. After a few weeks of rotation, the Chargers have settled on former Bear Ian Scott to man the focal point of any 3-4 defense. RDE Luis Castillo is the best interior lineman on the team outside of Williams, and leads a solid if unspectacular interior unit. The Chargers rotate several other guys into the three interior positions, but certainly don’t have the star power of the Pittsburgh or Baltimore fronts we’re used to seeing.
The linebackers on this team are very good. Everyone talks about OLB Shaun Merriman, but the real difference maker in this unit is OLB Shaun Phillips. He leads the team in sacks, and is very active in the run game. Phillips has an ankle injury, but it does not appear serious. Merriman gets the pub, but outside two games mid-season, he’s been held without a sack. He is also dealing with a foot issue that has nagged him for two months. He and Chad 8-5 have had a war of words going on the past few months, so perhaps he’ll be good for a personal foul a la Ray Lewis. Rookie Larry English spells Merriman at his outside rush position and appears to be the heir once Lights Out departs via free agency after the season.
The middle backers are very solid with Stephen Cooper, Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler all getting significant action. I’m a big fan of Cooper, he’s very underrated but is probably better at this point than James Farrior as an interior 3-4 backer. This linebacking corps rushes a ton, and brings all kinds of zone blitzing schemes to the party. The key to any 3-4 is getting the mismatch of a linebacker one on one with a back or tight end. Watch for overloads at the snap and look for delays, especially attacking the middle of the line. The right side of the Bengals line and the left guard position have not pass blocked well of late and coordinator Ron Rivera will look to exploit that.
I’m not in love with the Charger secondary, but this is a unit that has talent and a lot of size. CB Antonio Cromartie is 6’2” and CB Quintin Jammer is a legit 6’0” and both guys are 200# plus. Cromartie is more athletic, with rougher ball skills and Jammer is the more complete corner who will look for the hit. Antoine Cason is a very capable nickel corner with good size as well. The safeties are solid, led by Eric Weddle who may be limited with a knee injury. Steve Gregory and rookie Kevin Ellison man the other safety spot. The Chargers are very high on Ellison out of USC, and he’s a load in run support at 220#.
The weakness of this defense is their ability to stuff the run. OK, the stats are going to show that they are giving up well south of 100 a game, but stats can be deceiving. Most opponents either have to pass to keep up with the Chargers offense, or they short circuit their own run game a la Dallas last week. The Chargers can be run on if you are committed and the game is close. The Bengals have the run attack and the defense to accomplish both.
The Bengals offense cannot commit the drive killing penalties they have been the last few weeks. You’re done before you even start. If they play a clean game, they can push this defensive line around. This line will be fired up emotionally, no doubt about it, but can they played with controlled aggression? The did against Baltimore.
Getting points will be the key, and this is where I see the Bengals falling short. The Vikings sat back in deep cover 2 and had their corners maul the Bengal receivers at the line. They dared the Bengals to run and put together long, methodical drives. Heck, so did Oakland, so did Cleveland, so did just about everyone outside of Green Bay and Chicago. I fully expect the Chargers to do the same with their big, physical corners. Chad will draw 2,3, and even 4 guys at times, so the other receivers have to show up. “Paging Vern Coles”. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this stuff each week.
At least we may finally see Jerome Simpson, who should run 10-12 go routes even if they only throw it once. Just the threat of his size and speed will open things up for the other guys underneath. I’d expect to see some bunch formations as well, with one receiver behind the other so they can’t get jammed. I actually expect Caldwell to have a decent game, but he needs a touchdown catch to make this close.
Also helping the offense should be the return of Bernard Scott. He and Brian Leonard are formidable in the short passing game. Watching Carson last week, there was nothing open downfield, so he will have to check down and guys will have to make plays. Look at how effective the Vikings backs were last week. The Bengals have guys who can make plays too. One guy who can’t is Dan Coats. Please stop throwing him the ball. Even if you have to go more 3-4 wides, stop asking these tight ends to make plays.
If the Bengals can keep this a low scoring, ugly game, they can control the tempo. Field position will be critical, and avoiding turnovers will be too, as they were against Minnesota. That game was close until the fumble and field goal to end the half and the first scoring drive in the third quarter changed the whole dynamic. The Bengals have not done well offensively coming out of half time, and they can’t afford to be down multiple scores against the Charger offense.
When the Chargers have the ball:
This isn’t LT’s Chargers anymore; this team belongs to Phillip Rivers. I believe he is the second best quarterback in the Conference right now behind only Payton Manning. The Chargers have the premier vertical passing game in the league and Rivers is playing at an elite level. He has a solid line in front of him and weapons at every position around him. This offense will be very difficult to stop.
The run game still features LT, but his touches are limited. He is no longer featured as an every down back, but is still effective in short yardage and goal line situations. Though he only has 600 yards rushing, he has 10 touchdowns. Darren Sproles will get carries, but is primarily a weapon in the pass game. He is hard to see and hard to stop and is deadly in the screen game if given space and blocking. Every great pass team needs a safety valve who can take a four yard pass and get 8. He can get 80 with his punt return open field skills.
The receiving corps, and I include the tight end on this team, is big and fast and skilled. Vincent Jackson is a premier big receiver who routinely beats double teams with his speed and leaping ability. Antonio Gates leads the team in catches and yards from the tight end position, and is still the premier pass catching TE in the league (no offense to Dallas Clark who’s 1B). Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee round out an absolutely huge group of targets for Mr. Rivers. These guys are threats vertically and threats in the redzone, where they put a ton of pressure on smaller defenders. James Lofton early, and now Charlie Joyner deserve a ton of credit for the success of this well schooled unit.
The Bengals secondary, as good as it has been, has had difficulty defending bigger receivers. Guys like Greg Jennings, and Derrick Mason have had limited success, but Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Mohammed Massoquoi have put up big games. They’ve also been hurt over the middle by slot guys, tight ends, and backs. Ummm, the Chargers bring all of this in spades. I smell trouble.
The key to stopping, or at least slowing down, the Chargers will be pressure. The Bengals must rattle Rivers, and that is not easy to do. He is a pocket passer, so pushing around the pocket is a must. The Chargers line is solid against the rush, and is starting to get John Runyan acclimated at the RT position. Marcus McNeil is a good LT, and the interior of Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick and Luis Vasquez are all solid. The Bengal front will have to come out fired up. If the Bengals are forced to blitz, it will open up the screens and draws for Sproles. Tackling and screen recognition will be huge.
I’m sure the defense will come out firing and be flying to the football, but they must also play with discipline. The linebackers did a very poor job against Minnesota of taking angles and tackling, and will have to be better. The safeties, especially Tom Nelson with the loss of Chris Crocker, will have to do a good job of minimizing the damage that Gates can cause in the middle of the field. This is very tough with the threat of the deep ball at any time to Floyd and Jackson.
Much will be expected from JJoe and Leon Hall once again. If they play lights out, the Bengals have a shot. If they can manage to take what running game the Chargers bring out of the game and keep them in longer down and distance, they have a shot. If they can control field position, they have a shot. But if grandma had balls, she’d be grandpa. That’s a lot of if’s.
Teams:
Field position is critical. Kevin Huber had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? Field position is critical. Shayne Graham had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? The Bengals need a spark in the return game. I don’t know whether B. Scott will get back to kick returns immediately or if Cosby will continue to do both, but this teams needs at least one big return in this game.
The Chargers have probably the best punter, best kicker, and one of the best returners in the league. Fantastic for them. Seriously though, watch Mike Scifres punt, the guy is amazing.
Prediction:
As much as I’d love to say they will rally behind the loss of Chris Henry the way they did against Baltimore after Mike Zimmer’s wife died, I don’t see it. The Bengals are better than the Ravens, period. The Bengals are not better than the Chargers. Not at home, on a neutral field, and certainly not in their place. Does that mean they can’t win, no it doesn’t. The Bengals are a good football team, whose style should keep them competitive in most games. They just make too many mistakes and are not sharp enough where it matters most. Above all, they don’t score enough to beat the really good teams.
The Chargers have failed to score more than 23 only twice all year, and the Bengals have scored more than 23 only twice this year. That’s not good. The Bengals should hold it close early, but run out of steam after a quick SD score in the third quarter pushes it to a two score lead. Unless Jerome Simpson and/or Bernard Scott can make a quick score happen, it’ll be over. I’ll take the under and the Chargers by more than 6.5.
The Bengals still look good as the 3 seed, hoping to host the crappy Ravens a second time. I want no part of the Dolphins, so send them a voodoo hex please.
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