Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Buy, Sell, Trade? What Walt will be thinking about this month.

Here the Reds sit on July 6th, 43-44 and in 4th place, 4 games back of St. Louis. What should they do? They are in “contention” only because they play in arguably the worst division in baseball. More than half their wins have come against the NL Central, they are below .500 on the road, and nearly half their losses are of the one run variety. Their interleague record is abysmal. Clear signs of weaknesses. They have limped through a very difficult month and are smack in the middle of a stretch against the division leaders that could determine the rest of the season's course.

So make a trade you say? Get some help for SS, LF, CF, 3B! Get some pitchers! Maybe they should, but let's examine those ideas as they pertain to the bottom line, just like real GM's do.

SS is probably the most difficult position in baseball to fill in terms of offensive production, especially without huge sacrifices for defense (see Peralta, Johnny). Jose Reyes is the biggest name rumored on the market, and is in the midst of a career best year. He is a free agent at season’s end, and almost certainly will not sign with the Reds. (His contract will be somewhere around 7 years, $140+M, and no one not named Votto is worth that kind of investment for the Reds). He would be a rental, and he will not come cheaply on the trade market. However, he will be a Type A free agent, and would almost certainly decline arbitration that the Reds would offer. This would mean two draft picks as compensation from the team he signs with. That would help offset the cost of the blue chip prospects you’d have to give up. Still, you’d be on the hook for his remaining roughly $5.5M salary as well, unless the Mets did what the Blue Jays did for the Reds in the Rolen deal and eat salary for a better player package. The Reds have the prospects to make the deal if they want. The rest of the market is pretty underwhelming. JJ Hardy, Jason Bartlett (may not be available anymore), etc.

One intriguing name is prospect Zach Cozart, currently playing the heck out of SS in Louisville. He’d almost certainly be an upgrade offensively, but you’re dealing with an older manager and older GM that prefer veterans. Plus, you’d be starting Cozart’s arbitration clock early (we’ll talk again about this later). While the Reds have been willing to risk Super 2 status with players like Jay Bruce before, it’s a little harder to swallow for more of a “role player” type of guy. As we’re seeing now with the arbitration issues of Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, etc. eventually you have to pay guys when you commit to a youth movement.

As much as I’d love to see Reyes on this team, the move doesn’t make a ton of sense. I would argue that they really need another middle of the order hitter, although Reyes setting the table might make the current guys better. Still, the Mets sound less and less likely to deal him, so it’s probably moot. Cozart is a better option than Hardy or Bartlett, or anyone else for that matter.

Outfield production has been much maligned, and with reason. Even the great Jay Bruce went from a redhot May to a horrendous June. Add in Drew Stubbs 40% strikeout rate over the last month and a half, and the ups and downs of the Gomes/Heisey/Lewis triumvirate, and you have wildly inconsistent production. Still, is there really an upgrade on the market? Ryan Ludwick, really? I just don’t see it, and it pains me to say that. There is no Matt Holliday in this market. Maybe a Carlos Beltran, but are the Reds going to take that salary? Same with Alex Rios. No way this team is taking on big dollars, and to give up major prospects for these guys is throwing good money after bad. This team would have to be 4 games up to make that kind of move, and then why would they need to. Besides, unless you’re again going after a rental with Type A or B status, you’re going to have to pay upwards of $7M per for even a decent offensive player. All this while Heisey and Lewis still have controllable years ahead of them. That just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

Of course, there really aren’t any power hitting OF prospects just lighting up the minors either. Todd Frazier is a Mark DeRosa-type defensively (probably best at 3B) and he does have 15 bombs in AAA, but he’s only hitting around .270 and still hasn’t put everything together at the plate. I’d love to see him get more of a shot in September, but he doesn’t really warrant significant playing time yet (though I do love his 14 steals). Yonder Alonso has played quite a bit in LF, and has the makings of an OPS machine, but the Reds brass continue to keep him back in AAA. If he stays at 1B, he’ll be blocked by Votto until at least 2013, so he remains the Reds best trade chip. Perhaps Dave Sappelt warrants a look, but he’s not a power guy and isn’t stealing bases either. I think he’s a poor mans Chris Heisey. Jeremy Hermida is a journeyman, no better. I’d rather play Lewis.

I just don’t see a move here worth making. Heisey deserves more PT, as does Lewis. Gomes might be an interested guy to sell off if the Reds tank, but the other guys should be here for awhile.

3B probably isn’t even worth talking about. The Reds owe Rolen $4M this year and another $8M next. Even if he can’t hit for power anymore, they will still keep him and play him when/if he’s healthy. I’m not a huge Rolen fan, but it is what it is. I wish they still had Zach Stewart and Josh Reneike…..and Josh Hamilton….sigh.

Catcher is intriguing. The Reds maybe the deepest team in the league at a position they couldn’t find a decent one for a decade or more. Not only are they getting great production offensively from Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez, but they have arguably their best overall prospect in Devin Mesoraco at the position, as well as last year’s 1st round pick Yasmani Grandal (who killed high A and is currently in AA). It may make me a bad fan, but the selling chips here almost make me hope the Reds fall out of contention. Ramon Hernandez could get you something valuable in a trade, especially if he earns Type A status.

The problem with keeping Hernandez is that he’s a free agent after the season, and the Reds will almost certainly be ready for Mesoraco for next season at the latest. That means that in order for the Reds to capitalize on Hernandez’s status (A or possibly B), they’d have to offer arbitration. I think that short of a wink and nod deal not to, he’d accept it for the certain significant raise on a one-year deal. That would be the worst position the Reds could be in. The flip side is that, if the Reds do deal Hernandez, and promote Mesoraco, they start his arbitration clock which could make him a Super 2 player. (That means he’s eligible for arbitration a full year sooner than he’d normally be, which can cost the club millions). Again, the Reds have shown a willingness to err on the side of youth for the right guy, and Mez looks like a bonafide star.

The Reds certainly don’t need to trade FOR a catcher, so this position is only of interest if they decide to sell.

Pitching has been the position hardest hit by injuries this season. The Reds have been rumored to be looking at Starting pitching, but I’m not sure which national writer has his mouth on the crack pipe. The Reds starting pitching has been okay, especially of late, and they still have a ton of young arms. Johnny Cueto is looking like an ace and the Reds have him locked up longterm on a very team friendly contract. Yes, Edinson Volquez has been all over the map, and yes, Bronson Arroyo is a mess physically. Yes, Bailey has been hurt and inconsistently effective. But, they’ve still gotten mostly good stuff out of Leake and Wood. And, there’s almost nothing on the trade market. AND, the best possible addition is sitting on THEIR AAA affiliate in Dontrelle Willis. Let’s be real. Is this team Erik Bedard away from winning the division? Jeremy Guthrie? Didn’t think so.

Now if they could land a big fish, then maybe. Especially one that isn’t coming with a $15-$20M/per price tag (sorry, don’t see King Felix coming here unless this team is going up to $90M+ payroll). Could you land a Brian Matusz or a Jake Arrieta? Or a Michael Pineda or even a Brandon Beachy? Maybe.

A significant longterm upgrade to the rotation would be worth top prospects; anything less than that is a wash at best. And remember that pitchers are generally more susceptible to injuries than position guys.

So maybe they could look to the bullpen. Coco Cordero is a free agent at season’s end (assuming the Reds choose the $1M buyout), and Masset and Chapman and even Ondrusek have been inconsistent. I still don’t see this team looking at a Heath Bell type player. I don’t think they will be in a big hurry to continue to have their highest paid player be the closer. Masset, Chapman and Ondrusek are all locked up longterm and I’m sure the preference would be to see one of those three take the closer’s role next year. (Start getting the Tums ready for when they start throwing balls). Bray is solid as the lefty go to guy, and some combination of LeFishSmith will be there too.

The prospect with the most buzz in the pen has to be Bradley Boxberger, who has recently been promoted to AAA. He could end up being a Craig Kimbrel, out of nowhere, closer option next year. His numbers are freakish. I fully expect to see him in September if not sooner.

Again, I don’t see a major upgrade available that’s worth the prospects and/or money unless this team suddenly gets hot.

So what does all that mean? I’m really not sure. I do think that this team, as it stands, is going to have to win some games before Reds brass can really decide what to do. Right now they are on the razor’s edge. Slide back much further and you almost have to deal at least a couple guys. Move up and maybe you warrant an addition. Where they are now, if you make a big move and the team still slides, it could blow up in Walt’s face.

I know the fanbase is going to start crying for moves, but the only ones worth making right now are internal ones. (Unless you can get King Felix). But talk to me in a week and things might have changed…..

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