(The Bengals would get absolutely housed by Brett Favre and the Vikes in week 14. While the outside coverage was pretty good, the middle of the defense (esp. Dhani Jones) would get repeatedly beaten by passes to running backs. Percy Harvin didn't play, so it could've been even worse. Though the Bengals weren't as bad as they played this week, it definitely exposed them as a product of their schedule).
Bengals v. Vikings
So we finally get to the meat of the schedule, the first chance to see how this 9-3 Bengals team stacks up against a legitimate playoff team. In analyzing this matchup, I see some interesting parallels between this Bengals team and the Vikings. The first and maybe most important, is that like the Bengals, the Vikings have only beaten one team with a winning record on their way to 10-2: the Green Bay Packers. The Vikes, widely regarded as the third best team in football right now, have padded their record against pretty bad teams much like the Bengals have. Their two losses came at Pittsburgh (when, you know, Pittsburgh still looked a little like Pittsburgh) and at Arizona, and they’ve escaped two close games against San Francisco and Baltimore at home. How good is this Vikings team, really? How good are the Bengals? This game might now definitively tell us, but it should give some indications heading into January.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Holy cow, this Vikings defense is beat up. Antoine Winfield has been out for several weeks with a foot injury and is clearly the second best player on this defense behind Jared Allen. He appears to be ready to return this Sunday, but how effective can he be? The secondary is further depleted with injuries to both the other starting Corner Cedric Griffin (neck) and starting Strong Safety Tyrell Johnson (concussion), neither likely to play. Backup corner Karl Paymah, who’s pretty terrible even when healthy, is also not likely to play with a knee injury. That leaves our old friend Madieu Williams alone as the only healthy regular, playing next to a rookie in the deep backfield. Winfield’s effectiveness in coverage and run support is key to the success of this defense.
EJ Henderson, the starting middle Linebacker and as good a run stopping backer as there is in the league, is done for the year and possibly his career with a broken femur. That means rookie and special teamer Jasper Brinkley will be the man in the middle of our old friend Leslie Frazier’s defense on first and second downs. The two linebackers who will stay on the field all three downs are Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. Greenway is one of my personal favorites, and a guy that flat makes plays. He’s not much of a pass rusher, but he’s a factor in both the run and pass game and is the most versatile defender in the defensive front.
The front four of the Vikings is one of the premier units in the game, although DT Pat Williams may be limited with a foot injury. He and DT Kevin Williams form the “Williams Wall” with the help of DE Ray Edwards and of course DE Jared Allen, a front that has not surrendered over 100 yards rushing in 35 straight games. Jared Allen is the difference maker on this defense, a high motor guy with 12.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. He was shut down in the Arizona game last week, and has already come out and said he feels sorry for the Bengals this week.
While this is a very good defense, I’m not sure they are elite, especially in light of all the injuries. What they do well is stop the run. The pass rush and coverage have been surprisingly inconsistent. Allen for instance has 9.5 of his 12.5 sacks in three games, including 7.5 in two games against Green Bay. As we saw with Antwan Odom’s huge game against the Pack, getting huge sack numbers against them is common. He also had 2 more against the Bears two weeks ago, and they may have the worst offensive line in football. The moral is you have to take this guy out of the game with chips, cuts, double teams, and running right at him. The Arizona Cardinals did this to perfection last week, and the other guys did not step up.
I think the key to this game will be the play of the Bengals offensive line, backs and tight ends. Not only do they have to slide to Allen, the interior guys must not let the DTackles push the pocket. The way to negate a speed rush is to push it upfield and allow the quarterback to step up. If the DTackles push the pocket, there’s nowhere to go. Carson Palmer has done a lot of short roll outs to the right this year, and that could spell disaster with #69 bringing pursuit from the backside. Allen will look to do the Lawrence Taylor swipe anytime he’s close, and has caused game changing fumbles often. Palmer lost one last week to blindside corner blitz, so he must be more aware of danger.
The Bengals are going to try to run, that’s no secret. I think they will use plenty of unbalanced three tackle alignments to try to wear down both Allen and Edwards. How effective it will be is a big question. Without EJ Henderson, there’s no way this team is going to be as good against the run, but they’re still good. The Bengals have put up good run totals in just about every game this year, but this one may look more like the last Pittsburgh game where 80 yards may be it. Either way, it’s really about wearing down the DLine and setting up play action, so barring them being down multiple scores, they will stay balanced. The Vikes were called out by their coaches for the lack of physical play last week, so this should be a heavy weight title fight with plenty of body blows.
The Bengals offense comes into the game relative healthy, with only Bernard Scott missing with turf toe. That means plenty of power runs with Ced Benson, Larry Johnson and short passes to Brian Leonard. Carson Palmer has been campaigning for more pass attempts this week, and this game looks like the perfect time for them. Barring a complete meltdown in pass protection, a 300 yard game against this secondary is very plausible. Two things that worry me about the state of the Bengals passing game are the continued lack of a dependable second guy, let alone a third, and the leaky pass protection against straight pressures. Teams have been dropping 7-8 guys in coverage, and have still managed pressure, especially over the right side of Dennis Roland and Bobbie Williams. If the line can give Palmer time, I’d fully expect another big day for Chad MuchoMoutho.
The pre-snap penalties have also crept back over the last few games, as well as some drive killing holding calls. The Metrodome will be incredibly loud, so the Bengals will have to be very focused on not stopping their own drives. These problems have caused the Bengals to struggle all season to score points. They’ve scored over 30 only twice, with the last being the 45 point onslaught against the putrid Bears almost two months ago. The Vikings on the other hand, have scored less than 27 twice (both coming in their losses). What’s the old saying? The team that scores the most points generally wins.
The Bengals finally got a big play out of the passing game last week with Chad’s big catch, and this secondary will give up big plays if they play aggressively. I expect them to stay back and give up underneath passes rather than anything deep. That puts the brunt of the run stopping load on the front seven, so if the Bengals can move the defensive front, the pass game won’t have to carry the offense. Remember that the worst loss this season came when the offense had to score to keep up with the Texans offense. I don’t know that this Bengals offense can win in a shootout. The grind it out style works great when you’re holding teams under 20, so we’ll find out how good the Bengals D really is if they want to win.
When the Packers have the ball:
If the Vikes D weren’t so banged up, the first thing we’d be talking about are the injuries on the offense. On the OLine alone, only the Center does not appear on the injury report. Both Right Tackle Phil Loadholt (who’s done a great job as a rookie) and Right Guard Anthony Herrera appear unlikely to play with a shoulder and a concussion respectively, so injuries could whittle away at the effectiveness of a very good unit. The left side is very good with perennial pro-bowler Steve Hutchison and Bryant McKinnie, and they will certainly go that way more if the right side is undermanned. Much has been made this week of McKinnie “tipping off” plays by his body position, so keep an eye on him pre-snap and see if you can tell what’s coming. Hopefully RE’s Jon Fanene and Michael Johnson can take advantage too.
Even the great Adrian Peterson can’t escape the injury report, coming into the game with an ankle injury. He will go, but some of his incredible cutting and acceleration may be limited. He is the most dynamic back in the league, and even at 80% can make big plays and scores happen at any time. The only other skill guys nicked up are WR Bernard Berrian and TE Vishante Shiancoe. WR Percy Harvin has missed practice time due to migraines, but it’s a problem he’s dealt with his whole life so I don’t expect him to be limited during the game.
The run game is obviously formidable with Peterson and back-up Chester Taylor bringing both power and speed, and the ability to score from anywhere on any play. Tackling is of paramount importance against this team. With as much big-play, quick score ability as this team has, you can’t give them extra yards or allow short plays to break for big yards. The Vikes got away from the run-first philosophy last week and it blew up in their faces, so expect Peterson early and often in this one. Peterson is the first and second choice in the redzone and short yardage, and has a nose for the goal line. The Bengals have bent but not broken all season, and have been good in the redzone. This will be a huge test. Forcing field goals could win the game.
Brett Favre is certainly enjoying one of his best seasons as a pro. 26 touchdowns to only 5 picks shows that he has not forced the ball into spots that he might have early in his career. He has developed a very good rapport with his receivers, especially Rice, Harvin and Shiancoe. The Bengals corners are probably the best Favre will see all year however, so I would expect him to target the defenders in the middle of the field before going after the edges. As we’ve seen from the Oakland game, if the nickel corner or the safeties can be isolated in man coverage it can get ugly. I fully expect Percy Harvin and Shiancoe to do plenty of damage if the pass rush can’t make Favre throw early or inaccurately. Shiancoe is Favre’s favorite redzone target, so linebacker and safety coverage will be key. Favre is a master at pumps and look-offs, so it’s important for the coverage guys to play their man and not spy the quarterback. The one silver lining is that in the two loses, Favre gave the ball away. Peterson will give the ball up as well, so turnover margain is crucial in beating this team.
On the injury front, Domata Peko is out for this game and at least a couple more. Chris Crocker didn’t look good last week after hurting his leg, which could mean Tom Nelson playing safety. Morgan Trent apparently hurt his knee, so David Jones will play nickel. Peko hurts because he’s the best overall DLineman and a guy that’s on the field all three downs. They will need him more for the playoffs, so Tank Johnson and Pat Simms will have to carry the freight for a few weeks. Although it might hurt the run defense, they can also slide Fanene and Frostee Rucker to tackle if need be. I don’t want to see a whole lot of Orien Harris or Shaun Smith.
The secondary is starting to get really thin, although they’ve only had one key member hurt in Crocker to this point. Hall and Joseph are the keys to this outside-in defensive philosophy, but Crocker has been very big as the rangy centerfielder since moving back from nickel earlier this season. The middle will be tested by this very talented skill position group, a group that’s better than any they’ve seen to this point. There will be chances at turnovers, so hopefully we won’t see any easy drops like the Oakland game.
The front seven is going to have control the Vikings run game to have a shot at winning. Dhani Jones is quietly having a hell of a good season and is really the backbone of this defense. Getting Keith Rivers back healthy is huge, and getting more and more contributions from Who Dey Rey is very encouraging. This is a stiff test for this defense that is allowing the fewest points in the NFL. Is this defense really that good, or is this a product of what has been a weak schedule to this point?
Special Teams-
Percy Harvin is an electric return guy on kickoffs. He’s averaging almost 30 per return and has 2 scores. Shayne Graham was god awful on kicks last week and spotting Harvin 10 yards puts the coverage team in a bad spot. The punt returning for the Vikes isn’t nearly as good. Ryan Longwell is a very good kicker with only one miss all year and two made from over 50.
The Bengals will probably continue to rely on Quan Cosby in both the kick and punt return games. He’s been very solid on teams this year, but could use a little more help from his blockers to set up a big return. Coverage teams will have to be more consistent, which may be difficult without ace Kyries Hebert if he can’t go with a knee injury. Shayne Graham is very marginal at this point, and will not be with this team next year.
Prediction-
The Bengals are catching the Vikings at a pretty good time, as they are really banged up physically. They’re coming off a bad loss that either exposed them as a fraud with major flaws, or simply a team having a bad week that will look to bounce back in a big way at home. I think the truth may be somewhere in between. This Vikings team was home for almost six weeks, including the bye, before going to Arizona to play an improving Cardinals team. They got away from what they do best, running behind AP, and turned the ball over trying to play catch up. I do not think either one of these teams are a Super Bowl team, but the Vikes are still probably better than the Bengals in their building.
For the Bengals to win, they must stop the run and they must give Carson Palmer time to attack this very suspect secondary. The Cardinals did this to perfection, but the Bengals may not have the personnel to do the same in the Metrodome. The Bengals must, on both sides of the ball, take the fight right to the Vikings and test their physical will. They must play a much cleaner game that they’ve done against lesser teams the last few weeks. The margin for error may be too small.
They have a great shot at winning, much better than being a 7 point underdog would seem to state, but I don’t think they will score enough in the end. They should hold their own, but big plays will get them. Whether it’s a return, missed tackles on an AP run, or a big pass to Harvin, I think the Bengals will give up a couple of easy scores that are too much to dink and dunk and overcome. They must get an easy one or two of their own, and they must win the turnover battle. It can be done.
Overall, I see a close loss with the combined score higher than the 43 over/under as these are two defenses with slightly undeserved reputations.
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