Thought it might be interesting to take a look back at last season's pre-game primers before looking forward to the 2010 season.
I can't find the Cincy v. Denver preview, but I don't want to remember that game anyhow. So, let's start with week 2 at Green Bay. If you remember GB was heavily favored in that game, and Cincy narrowly escaped with an upset win.
Here's the primer:
Two very similar teams will battle it out Sunday, but I like this
match-up for the Bengals.
Offensively, both teams have dynamic passing attacks with elite
receivers and quarterbacks who can put the ball on target 60+ yards
downfield if given time. Both teams feature solid, but unspectacular
running backs and have offensive lines that are a mix of good and
marginal players. Pretty even, but they don't play against each
other.
Defense is where I see a little separation. While Green Bay is
getting a lot of hype about all the turnovers the caused against
Chicago, I don't think this is an elite group. They and the Bengals
are both very aggressive units, but the Bengals have better players
where it matters most.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Where most teams have had success against the Bengals over the last
two or three years, it's been in deep cover 2 like what the Broncos
did to them. You take away the big play and make the Bengals
methodically move the ball over 10-15 plays, knowing that they lack
the discipline to stay mistake free over that amount of time. Add in
that teams do not respect the running game and you effectively take
Palmer's best attributes out of the mix. Now, when teams get
aggressive in coverage it's another story entirely.
The Packers have in recent memory played a lot of press coverage, and
if they do that against the Bengals, they will get badly beaten. By
now everyone knows that the Packers have changed over to Dom Caper's
3-4 defense, but I saw some interesting things watching the Bears game
again: This is no ordinary 3-4. They came out in the first half with
a base defense that was basically a nickel package. Aaron Kampman,
their best defensive player, is the key to their defense and can play
at either end or outside backer. What they did against the Bears was
play him as a 3-4 end with the nickel back or safety coming down into
the box as the 7th defender. If they do this against the Bengals,
Carson must check down to a run and Bobbie Williams and Collins have
to make them pay. The Pack switched up in the 2nd half and in the
redzone to a more conventional 3-4 with 3 fat guys and Kampman at OLB
for extra run support. The Packers blitz a lot, so the backs must
block. Benson is a crap blocker, another reason for more B. Scott.
Receivers, especially guys like Coles and Caldwell need to understand
their hot route responsibilities and be ready. You have to make a lot
of short catches and extend a yard or two for first downs against this
defense. I think they will.
Whatever the defensive front look, the Packers secondary likes to play
a lot of single high safety with Nick Collins playing CF. It's no
wonder he got 7 picks last year, as he's almost not expected to help
in run support. Overall, their personnel in the secondary are older
guys with name recognition but without the speed of days gone by.
Atari Bigby is a poor man's Bob Sanders and one of my favorite
players, but he's always hurt (like Sanders) and is out for this game
with a knee issue. This unit gave up a lot of plays to the Bear's
crappy receivers and is in for a long day against 85 and the guys.
Three of Cutler's picks and several near picks were the result of bad
routes more than bad throws. This match-up favors the Bengals.
The DLine is a good, but not great unit. Cullen Jenkins dominated
against the Bears who went through two left guards during the game. I
don't know how badly Livings is hurt for the Bengals, but I expect
Jenkins to do some damage. BJ Raji may play, but he's got a bad wheel
so he won't be 100%. Pickett and Jolly are fat guys who can make some
plays but can't move. Kampman is the key to what they do scheme-wise,
and you can't leave Collins on an island all day against him. This
will be a good test, because they are good but nowhere near as good as
Pittsburgh or Baltimore's D-lines.
The LB's get a lot of pub, but one thing really jumps out at you. No
AJ Hawk. The guy barely plays. He backs up Nick Barnett and has
basically lost his job to Brandon Chillar who was all over the field
against the Bears. Chillar brought the most heat on delayed blitzes
up the middle, a la James Farrior. They play a lot of Clay Matthews
Jr. who is a tremendous athlete opposite Kampman at OLB. This is a
good unit, but you can neutralize them by getting bigger linemen to
them, especially when they're in that hybrid nickel alignment. They
are also better in run support than pass coverage, especially in the
middle.
Overall, again, I like this match-up for the Bengals. I expect GB to
stay with a modified single high safety, but roll coverage to Chad.
That means that Slim and L. Coles have to play big. Slim has to get
off jams, because he could have a monster day against one on one
coverage. Coles is a pro, and will want to rebound from a very bad
game against Denver. I'd also like to see more of Bernard Scott who's
much more dynamic and quicker to the hole than Ced.
When the Packers have the ball:
OK, I'm going to spew some cliches. The Packers want to run the ball
to setup the deep pass by forcing the defense to bring safeties up for
run support. The Bengals didn't look particularly good against the
Broncos running game, but that's as good an offensive line is their
likely to play all year. The Packers line is good, but there are some
holes. Particularly at RT, where they gave up two sacks. The Packers
like to max protect to give their receivers, especially Jennings, time
to get downfield, but still gave up pressures all game to the Bears.
I expect a good amount of max protect against the Bengals, and while
we have a 1000 times better secondary than the Bears, no one can cover
forever. The Packers also like to roll Rodgers out to his right, and
he'll go that way when the pocket breaks down, so again the matchup of
the DE's and OLB's on the RT and secondary blockers on that side is
key. Rodgers is really good. He's mobile and he's got a big,
accurate arm. He actually throws a lot like Favre, right up over the
top, but without quite the same velocity. He may actually throw a
more catchable ball. He's also very athletic and can extend plays.
You can't give up on plays, so a rotation of guys to rush will be key.
He has taken hits all preseason, and the Bengals have hit QB's in
every game. Hit him with some body blows and those deep throws will
be less accurate. The scary thing is that they could've easily put up
30 on the Bears, but just missed on several deep balls. I expect
Rodgers to be more crisp Sunday, which is scary.
Ryan Grant is a Ced Benson clone. Good, not great. If there's a
hole, he can hurt you but he won't make anything happen on his own.
He's a non-factor in the passing game, and the Pack doesn't screen
like they used to. Their center Spitz and LT Clifton are their best
all around linemen and the C especially is a road grater.
The WR's are their best unit, sound familiar? Jennings is
outstanding. He has it all, and is adept at understanding coverage
and game situations. He was not the primary on the game winning bomb
against Chicago, but understood where to be once the play started.
JJoe should be a tough matchup for Jennings, but he can beat Hall or
any nickel guys we have. Driver is still solid, but is not the run
after catch threat he used to be. They use both Donald Lee and
Jermichael Finley in a lot of sets, and both are matchup problems.
Lee is athletic and can get downfield and Finley is a beast
physically. They chipped on Ogunleye on one play and he knocked the
DE on his ass and still got out in the pattern. If I'm concerned
about anything it's how the safeties and LB's cover the middle of the
field. JJoe is looking like an elite cover corner now that injuries
are behind him and Hall is a solid all around corner, they are
probably the best duo the Packer receivers will see all year (all due
respect to Minnesota).
My prediction:
I expect GB to put some yards up, but the key is not giving up
touchdowns. If the Bengals can avoid turnovers that give the Packers
a short field, they will win. Even with their own redzone struggles,
I expect the Bengals to be able to hit on some big plays and expect
Henry especially to have a good game. I don't think Benson will do
much running, but he and hopefully Scott can bring a threat out of the
backfield in the pass game. I see both quarterbacks going over 300
yards in this one and the Bengals winning a game where I'd expect the
scoring to total 60 or better. Should be one of the most entertaining
games of the season.
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