(The plan to play the Jets again backfires and the Bengals playoff game mirrored the season. Underachieving passing game, lead by a critical Vern Coles fumble ending a promising drive, under-manned over-aggressive defense giving up big plays, and the horrible kicking game all lead to a loss. At least the Jets would go on to make some noise, beating the Chargers before running out of steam against the Colts in the AFC Championship game. Chad OchoCinco (forever known as Chad Johson by me) promised he would change his name back if he couldn't get off Revis Island 2 games in a row. He didn't, and in typical Chad fashion, won't change his name back. I actually can't stand Chad and am ever so happy they got Antonio Bryant).
engals v. Jets 2-Playoffs
The Bengals are going to win this game. That’s right I said it. So what if they got spanked last week. If there’s one important lesson that must be learned about the NFL, it’s that you must take things one week at a time. This week, the Bengals will give an entirely different effort.
Marvin Lewis may have said they were playing to win last week, but after breaking down the game (okay, the first half), it didn’t look that way. Not only were they resting their two best Dlinemen, their best safety and their best running back and tight end, the defensive schemes in particular were vanilla. It’s hard to say what the offensive scheme was considering that was the worst game I’ve ever seen Bengal receivers play. All in all, it looked like the effort of a team content to play the same opponent again the next week. The Jets were playing for their playoff lives and it showed.
This is not to say that the Jets are not a good football team, they are. Are they the Super Bowl favorite, as their demonstrative coach would like everyone to think? No. They are very similar in build and style to the Bengals, and I fully expect a more even match this week. Let’s get into the reasons why.
When the Jets have the Ball:
The Jets want to run first, second, and third and then look to set up play action. They do this because that’s what fits their personnel and because they have a rookie quarterback who’s thrown more picks than touchdowns. It makes sense. They run a lot of unbalanced formations with either an extra tackle at TE, or double TE’s to one side. When they do this, they are very predictable as to play and direction (much like the Bengals). They almost tell you what’s coming and dare you to stop it. Once again, this fits the M.O. of their head coach.
Against the mainstream, the Jets will run in pass situations. The Bengals learned this the hard way. 2nd and long, and 3rd and medium down and distance are still run first situations for the Jets. The Jets picked up several first downs against base 4-3 formations where the Bengals had their pass personnel on the field. On a big 3rd and 4 out of a 3 WR set, the Jets took advantage of Johnathan Fanene being at DT and Brandon Johnson in at the SOLB and drove both guys out of the play to pick up the first down. I would fully expect with the return of Domata Peko and Robert Geathers, that the Bengals will stay in base defense and personnel groupings in these situations. Only on absolutely obvious pass downs will you see Fanene at the DT position.
The Jets also bring a running quarterback to the table, something the Bengals really haven’t seen all season. This isn’t even a true Wildcat, like the Browns occasionally run with Josh Cribbs. Not only does Brad Smith line up under center, but they also run a Pistol type set where they can run a true option. Some of these Bengal defenders probably haven’t seen that since college. With a week to prepare for what they just saw, I can’t see Mike Zimmer’s defense not being ready to stop those plays. If the Jets rely on Brad Smith to continually convert third downs like they did last week, they will be in trouble.
The Jets offensive line is terrific and FB Tony Richardson and the TE’s can all block. The Oline, especially the interior guys Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Alan Faneca are very quick off the snap and are dangerous in open space. Last week showed us way too many situations where these guys were one on one with LB’s. With Rey Maualuga out, the Bengals lack a physical presence to match these guys. The key will be for the interior DLine guys to at least get a hand on the interior OLine guys before they get to the second level.
The Bengals defense also did not blitz in the first matchup. They played straight up, without their best players, and got knocked around. Expect a much more aggressive front with more safety pressures now that Chris Crocker is back. The Bengals played the multiple receiver sets of the Jets with mostly base 4-3, sliding the safety down as the nickel corner. I expect to see the same type of look this week, but with Crocker at the nickel instead of Tom Nelson. That leaves Chinny Ndukwe as the single high safety, protecting the deep ball. This alignment allows the Bengals the flexibility to bring that nickel back on a blitz or drop to 2 deep. Crocker is also a superior run defender, so the Jets will NOT be raking up 250 rushing yards this week with he amd Peko and Geathers back.
The key will be winning on first down and putting the Jets in obvious pass situations. Mark Sanchez has pretty ugly numbers this season, especially on the road. He is best in play action and short yardage situations, where the threat of his run game gives him one on one matchups to throw to. He has the makings of a good quarterback, but he’s a long way away right now. When the Jets have had to have him carry the load, he’s generally imploded, giving the ball away far too many times. The Bengals will continue to play aggressive man to man coverage on the outsides and dare this guy to beat them. The Jets used some delayed snap counts against the Bengals last week, especially in the shotgun. A young, inexperienced quarterback will find the snap count more difficult in a hostile environment.
Sanchez isn’t the only Jet with turnover issues. Shonn Greene has had fumble problems all season, and was bailed out by an off-sides penalty last week or he’d have had another one. I fully expect at least two turnovers out of the Jets in this game, and that margin may be the key.
This is not to say that the Jets don’t have weapons. Braylon Edwards is still a big play threat, even with his issue with drops. Leon Hall has had problems with big receivers all year, and was tested deep last week. Jericho Cotchery is a very solid receiver, though he is dealing with a hamstring issue. He too is capable of hooking up with Sanchez on a deep strike. Big plays must be avoided. The Bengals must make the Jets be methodical. This game has the makings of a heavy weight fight, and those types of fights usually start with a lot of body blows to setup the knockout. The Bengals can’t let this team land a big shot early.
I fully expect the Jets to come in overconfident from last week, thinking they can just line up and run it down the Bengals throats like last week. Trust me, it won’t be so easy. If the Jets are smart, they will go counter to this and immediately come out with some controlled passes to take advantage of the 8 man fronts they are sure to see. If the Bengals can tackle better than last week, the additions in personnel and aggressiveness should limit the Jets offense.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Wait, I think another Bengal receiver just dropped another pass. Good god, how bad were these guys? I know Darelle Revis is the best corner in football, but even he was beaten on a couple routes early where drops killed any momentum. At least everyone got in on the fun, and hopefully got it out of their system because Carson Palmer has always preferred to attack Rex Ryan’s 46 defense with the pass. He’s been one of the few quarterbacks to consistently beat the Ravens, and judging by how open guys were getting; it seems like the right approach. There is no way in the world this group has that bad a game collectively two weeks in a row.
Not only did the Bengals rest key guys on defense, they also rested Ced Benson and JP Foschi, their best back and best TE (a relative term). I’m not going to say the offense didn’t try, but they didn’t really audible and stuck to what was called. You can tell this when the run against an obvious 9 man front. Not going to get much against that.
Again, this is no slight to a very good Jet D. They are the strength of this team and again demonstrate the personality of their coach. Aggressive, demonstrative and generally in your face. This may be the only team in the league that has the stones to cover Chad 8-5 one on one. They line up in more exotic formations than any other defense and constantly move around prior to the snap. One thing is almost always certain, the Jets are bringing blitzers from somewhere. They put a lot of guys at the line of scrimmage, even in base defense, and have perimeter defenders who are quick to disrupt plays and get into the backfield. This is a formidable group, but they have weaknesses.
For one, their all-world DT Kris Jenkins is out for the year. The Jets are still good against the run, but not as good without him. Their run defense, and pass rush for that matter, is more about overloads and mismatches now. The will overshift in alignment and try to make you check to where they want you to go. This allows their quicker guys to shoot gaps and pursue, things that most defensive fronts don’t do. One example was a first down run that was immediately blown up by OLB Calvin Pace, who flashed in front of RT Dennis Roland and dropped Bernard Scott for a loss. I think the speed of Pace and the inside move caught Roland off guard. Playing these guys a second time in succession should be helpful on plays like that.
The pass defense hinges on Revis. The assumption is that he has half the field locked down and the rest of the defense has the other side. For the most part they are right, but as well as he played against Chad, he was awfully handsy downfield. He got called for one hold and should’ve been flagged for a PI on a deep fade down the sideline. I’d expect, in Cincy, that he’ll get more calls on him than in New Jersey.
The Bengals continue to get stupid penalties on offense, and at this point in the season, I think it’s a given. Can they overcome them and at least avoid them in critical spots? This team could’ve picked up several third downs if not for drops, including a 3rd and 13, but you can’t make a habit of it against this defense. Stay in manageable situations and win the field position battle. There will be chances out there, but the secondary receivers must play better. Andre Caldwell and Vern Coles again must play better. JP Foschi’s return should help as well. This team is in dire need of upgrades at both positions in the offseason.
While I certainly don’t expect an offensive explosion, I do expect a decent performance from the Bengals offense. Carson has seen this defense plenty, and given time, will find holes. He was absolutely on the money last weekend in bad conditions, so I have no worries about how he is playing right now. I know he wants to win, the rest of the guys need to do their parts.
Teams-
The Jets may have a slight edge in teams, but not enough to make a significant difference. The Bengals haven’t had very good returns in some weeks, so maybe they are due. Field position is important in even games.
Prediction-
A much better all-around effort by the Bengals, who understand that everything they’ve done is moot without playoff success. Marvin Lewis and Co. have waited since 2005 to get redemption and I think it’s coming (at least for one week). The Jets spent a lot of energy just to get here and partied like they won the Super Bowl after last week’s win. An already overconfident Rex Ryan is due for a wake-up call when his turnover prone quarterback plays in cold conditions, in a hostile environment, against a stronger Bengal opponent. The Jets are who we think they are: a team with one quality road win, week 1, against the Texans. Welcome to the Jungle boys. Turnovers will tell the story in this one and the Bengals win by a field goal in a game that should be in the low 40’s.
One more week of fun after this one.
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