(My main man Bernard Scott's kick return was the only touchdown in an absolute brawl of a football game. The Bengals sweep the Steelers for the first time in a god awful long time to go 7-2. They need that fast start later in the year, but you already knew that).
Bengals v Steelers II
A rematch of a game dominated by the Steelers everywhere but on the scoreboard, pits two teams atop the division at 6-2 for a king of the hill battle. Both teams are playing well, and both teams have an eye on the division title. While it’s big for both teams, this game is bigger for the Steelers. If they lose, they’re down a game and any tie breaker to the Bengals head to head. They also have two remaining dates with Baltimore, while the Bengals have only Cleveland remaining on their divisional schedule. Hopefully this game will bring back the intensity of the rivalry the way it was in ’05 and ’06 when Sports Illustrated called it the Nastiest Rivalry in Sports. We fans hate the Steelers, and the Bengals need to hate them too.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Steelers have Troy Polamalu in this game after missing the last matchup with a knee injury. He makes a huge difference to say the least. He brings the unpredictability to the defensive schemes and plays both the run and pass extremely well. He is the best player on this team, and has to be not only accounted for but dictated to. It will be key for the Bengals to maintain balance, not only in the run game, but in pass distribution to keep Polamalu a step behind the play.
Aaron Smith, the talented defensive end, is out for this game and the rest of the season. He is a big loss, especially against the run. In the first matchup I predicted the best strategy would be to run left, opposite Smith, and they did on the biggest run of the game. In this game, I’d go to the right. Kyle Cook, Bobbie Williams, and Dennis Roland will need to be physical against the replacements at LE and LB’s James Farrior and Lamaar Woodley. They will need help from the tight ends and Jeremy Johnson. Daniel Coats pancaked Farrior to spring Benson for the big touchdown last time around, and don’t think anyone’s forgotten. Brett Kiesel, Casey Hampton, and Chris Hoke are very good interior line guys, so this is still a formidable unit even without Smith.
Ced Benson is running well and the line has played well, but I’m concerned about Benson’s workload and about the injury to Evan Mathis. Mathis and Cook have been outstanding this year, and it will be up to Nate Livings to fill in at LG. This may also be the game we see Andre Smith, although they may wait until the next stretch of games against less worthy opponents. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard will need to do something in this game as they are both playmakers.
Last time around, the line did a nice job in the run game and especially in pass protection, but it was critical penalties that stalled drives. In Pittsburgh, they have to play cleanly as they have the last few weeks. This team will not be intimidated by the crowd, and that is huge. It’d be nice if they could intimidate the Steeler front seven.
Passing, it’s all about giving Carson Palmer time and getting multiple guys involved. Over the last few weeks, guys like Vern Coles and Andre Caldwell have played well as compliments to Chad Eightfive. With Chris Henry going down, it will be even more important for complimentary guys to get it done. Defenses usually key on Chad, but the Steelers will outright try to take him out of the game and make other guys beat them. Everyone, including tight ends and backs have to be ready to block and catch against a defense like this. If receivers can break one tackle against this high risk defense, you can gain chunks of yards. The Steelers will usually give you a couple opportunities downfield during a game, but that is all. Take advantage, or overthrow. Don’t hang a ball up for this secondary to ballhawk. This may be the first we see of Jerome Simpson running a 9 route or two as well. Someone will have to take Slim’s spot on the 45, so that bears watching.
Most of the time, this defense wants to force underneath passes where their backend guys can come tackle. Where they are dangerous is when they show blitz and drop guys into lanes when you don’t expect it. Almost anyone can be in coverage and you don’t have time to read it, so quick decisions are key. If the Bengals turn it over more than once, they will have no shot.
The Bengals can move the ball on any defense when they are clicking, and I think this offensive line will have it’s moments against anyone. The have to play a clean game and avoid big mistakes. This is a different defense with Troy P, but it’s still not last year’s Steeler D. Be patient and take advantage of opportunities when they come. If they can stay close through the first half, they have a shot. If there are turnovers, be ready to tackle. This defense is the best in the league at scoring after turnovers perennially, and you can’t spot them points. The Denver game was close until a Tyrone Carter pick six. That was only the latest example.
When the Steelers have the ball:
This offensive unit is playing very well for Pittsburgh, perhaps even better than they were when they took the Bengal defense apart for three quarters earlier in the year. In that game, the Steelers were able to establish both the run and the short passing game early and put the Bengals in a hole quickly. The Bengals were very lucky to immerge from that game with a win, and cannot expect to survive a game like that again.
The biggest difference this time around for Pittsburgh has to be the immergence of Rashard Mendenhall as the featured back. Fast Willie Parker has been anything but in the last two years, but Mendenhall has shown the big play speed we were accustomed to seeing from the former. He is still a bit undisciplined and impatient as a runner, but will punish in the second level. The Bengals run defense has played well this year, and it will extremely important for Domata Peko, Robert Geathers, and the SAM linebacker combination of Rashad Jeanty and Rey Maualuga to play well against a run attack that strongly favors the right side. Keith Rivers will probably miss the game, which is a bummer, but the overall depth of this unit should minimize the loss some. Still, it’s disappointing that the guy with the biggest grudge is going to miss the grudge match.
The Steelers are very effective at pulling Chris Koemoatu and Heath Miller from left to right as they did on the longest of Mendenhall’s runs against Denver. Recognizing the play and beating the pulling guard to the spot will be key to neutralizing the big play out of the run game. The Steelers seem to always pull at least one trick play out of the bag against the Bengals, so expect at least one reverse out of a formation that they have success from early. The Steelers, like most effective offenses, will show the same formation but be able to run and pass out of it if down as distance allows it.
The Bengals did a pretty decent job last meeting of keeping the Steelers in longer 3rd down situations once they settled in to the game, but still allowed far too many conversions. The Steelers will kill you in shorter 3rd down distances because it plays to the strength of their quick pass game. Out of either tight bunches or spread formations, Ben Roethlisberger is very good at seeing the favorable matchup and getting the ball out before pressure comes.
Pressure is key to beating the Steelers, but you must be careful to maintain gaps as Big Ben is maybe the best in the league at slipping out of sure sacks and making big plays. The Steelers will also employ the no huddle offense, which is generally when they are most effective at picking up chunks of yardage quickly. They like to save it for later in the games and after the defense has forced a three and out to really wear out a defense. The Steelers used it to perfection in the second half of the Broncos game and turned a tight game into a blowout quickly. Here, the Bengal offense has to help out it’s defensive mates.
Hopefully a healthier Jonathan Joseph and the return of Roy Williams will help this secondary cover better than in the previous matchups. The Steeler offensive line has given up 22 sacks, and I believe the majority of those are coverage sacks where Ben holds the ball too long. Chris Crocker is back at safety as well, and Morgan Trent has played a decent nickel. Overall, this may be the best secondary the Steelers have faced. Santonio Holmes in particular had a tough game against the Bengals last time and will be looking to rebound. Mike Wallace has really immerged as a deep threat and has as much as anyone contributed to the effectiveness of Hines Ward in short to intermediate routes. Ward is still the go to guy in the redzone.
The key to the game will be how physical the defense, and especially the front seven, can be against this offensive unit. The Oline for Pittsburgh is big and tough, and the defense can’t get pushed around. If they can win on first down and force longer 3rd downs, they have a shot. Jam the receivers and make them pay for short catches. Hit them, hit them, hit them.
Teams:
Last game, not only did Andre Caldwell catch 50 yards worth of passes and score the winning touchdown, he had 100 yards of returns. Both he and Quan Cosby need to contribute Sunday, if for nothing else than field position. Stephan Logan is dangerous, and will probably get at least one good return in this game. Both field goal kickers are good, but Heinz field is a tough place to kick. Jeff Reed has the edge because of experience. This game could be won or lost by good punting, and both teams have good ones.
Prediction:
It’s hard to think about how lopsided three quarters of the last game was and how well the Steelers have played in beating teams like Minnesota and Denver since the last loss to the Bengals. They are not invincible, and are not even as good defensively as they’ve been in the past. But this offense is scary right now, and I have to think they’ll make a couple more plays and a couple less mistakes than the Bengals and win a lower scoring, ugly game. Eventually the Bengals defense will wear out. There’s no shame in a loss to a team that looks every bit like a defending Superbowl Champion in their building.
I’m not asking for a win for the Bengals to make a statement here, no matter what you hear from the national talking heads. I’m not looking for a consolation prize if they don’t. What I’m looking for is a swagger and an attitude that they belong in the top tier of teams in this league. Come out and hit Pittsburgh, and keep hitting them for 60 minutes or longer if need be. Take the fight to the bully and win, lose or draw, take a chunk out of their ear to let them know you’re not messing around anymore. No matter what the scoreboard says, kick some ass.
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