(The Bengals win against the last bad team they had on the schedule before two tough road games at Minnesota and San Diego).
Bengals v Lions
This is a game the Bengals must and will win. This is the last of the run of three really bad teams, and Detroit is probably the worst of the three. It’s not really a question of if the Bengals win; it’s how good they look doing it.
When the Lions have the ball:
The Bengals defense, as solid as they have been, have shown one glaring deficiency the last few weeks and that’s the inability to get the quarterback on the ground. Mike Zimmer said as much earlier this week, and was looking for better one on one efforts from the front guys. Enter Left Tackle Jeff Backus and an offensive line that has given up 32 sacks this year. Add in a young quarterback going up against a defense with a solid secondary that shows a lot of looks, and it’s not hard to envision adding a couple more picks to the 18 Matthew Stafford has already thrown.
The Bengals are doing a very good job against the run, and the Lions don’t run well. Kevin Smith has only 603 yards rushing this season, so I don’t expect them to do much against the Bengals even with Domata Peko out with a lingering knee injury.
The Lions one strength offensively is their receiving corps, led by the freak of nature that is Calvin Johnson. The Bengals have had issues against bigger receivers this year, including Mohammed Massoquoui and Andre Johnson, and they don’t come any bigger or more athletic than Johnson. The Bengals usually employ aggressive man coverage, with safety help, but this may not be enough to stop CJ. Most teams throw at least two and sometimes as many as four defenders against him, and several of Stafford’s picks have come from forcing the ball into him. He is the only difference maker on this team.
Brandon Pettigrew was looking to be coming into his own at the Tight End position, but lost his season to a knee injury. The weakness of the Bengals defense has been in the middle of the field, and the Lions are without their best option to exploit it. The Bengals defense should enjoy this game, because the next two are exponentially more difficult against Minnesota and San Diego.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so it will be interesting to see if they take a page from the Browns and sit back in cover 2 or attack the Bengals run game. The Bengals have had one really good game passing this season, and that was against a Bears team that may have the worst secondary in the league. As well as the Bengals have run the ball; I think they could really use a 300 yard passing day.
You have to love a team that can run the ball and stop the run, but this team is not scoring enough points to be considered elite. No one is going to question where the Bengals are a physical football team, as this team looks primarily to wear opponents down with their big, physical offensive line. We saw a glimpse of Andre the Giant last week, and he will only help this team impose their will. This is a run first team, and it plays to the strength of the offensive personnel, but eventually they have to throw.
Carson Palmer is an elite quarterback and quarterback play wins in the playoffs, but he has been getting hit a lot the last few weeks and too many of those are coming on one on one rushes. When you see only three or four guys rush, the Oline has to give Palmer more time to find guys amidst more defenders in the secondary. The timing with the receivers outside of Chad has been inconsistent all year, so it’s paramount to give Palmer enough time to see what’s happening. The anticipation is not there with the complimentary receivers and that’s where losing Chris Henry has hurt. This team has a #1 and two #3’s right now, with little help from the tight ends or other receivers. If the defenses are getting pressure, it means that backs and tight ends have to stay in to protect, so that exacerbates the problem.
Bernard Scott is out, and this is a guy I’d like to see involved more in the pass game going forward. He’s averaging 13 a catch and can be more of a factor given the chance. Caldwell has a shot at 60 catches, but is only averaging 9 a catch. Coles is the closest thing to the second deep threat, but is clearly not the guy he used to be. Purify is garbage. He’s a physical guy who’s not going to hurt you in the run game and can contribute on teams, but clearly has no clue how to run routes and screen defenders. Jerome Simpson must be either stupid, or lazy, because he has the athleticism to play at this level. This team is missing another legitimate receiver, and it’s probably going to be next year before they get him.
But those are issues for upcoming weeks. This week, they have more than enough to beat a Lions defense that has given up over 330 points. Take out the Bears game, and this team has scored more than 23 once all season and went over 80 completions without a TD pass. For those scoring at home, that’s not good. Not scoring enough points cost them two additional wins this season, and they will not win consistently in the playoffs scoring less than 24. Hopefully the Lions can give this team the kind of confidence they got from thumping the Bears, confidence that carried them through two huge games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Chad MuchoMoutho called out the coaches this week for the lack of pass attempts, so look for them to put it up more than last week. But they will still do what the other team is dictating. If they stay back in coverage, the Bengals will run. Teams will have to pick their poison against this offense, but right now, the Bengals are only getting yards with the run game and not points. If I’m a D coordinator, I’m going to make them earn points with long drives too.
Teams:
Scott is out on kickoffs, so it’s either up to Quan Cosby to handle both punts and kick offs or Andre Caldwell trying to redeem himself after giving Oakland a win a couple of weeks ago. The Lions have an average return game, but do have a good kicker so they can trade field goals with the best of them.
Prediction:
Get touchdowns and make the Lions throw from behind. Bad things will happen for Mr. Stafford. Hopefully the Bengals find their lost pass rush and gain some continuity in the pass game. They’ve let two inferior teams hang around the last two weeks, so I’m looking for a breakout. 13 points is a lot to cover, but I think the Bengals do it this week on their way to scoring over 30. Get a win now guys, the road gets steeper after this.
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