(Pretty much nailed the overall prediction of 10-6, although I thought that would only be good enough for a wildcard. They still ended up playing in that wildcard round instead of having a bye, and we all know the results. This was the state of the bye address).
Bengals State of the Bye Week address-
5-2 at the bye is about as good as you can hope for, and I’m going to do something almost no one is doing and give a ton of credit to the coaching staff and even the front office (a little). Frankly, Marvin Lewis and staff had to have a start like this since next year is the last on his contract and we saw last year in Seattle that guys don’t play hard for lame duck coaches. Top to bottom, this has to rank as the best all-around team the Bengals have fielded in the Lewis era and more importantly the most “team-oriented” group by far. They have exhibited play-making ability in all phases of the game and finally demonstrated the potential firepower of the offense going into the second half of the season. Momentum and confidence are important in sports, and the Bengals have a ton of both coming off the 45-10 beat-down of the Bears. (Even though this Bears team is a far cry from the 85 Bears, so let’s not start talking Lombardi trophy). Let’s take a few minutes and look at the start and preview the second half of what appears to be the first playoff season for the Bengals since 2005. (Knock 1,000 times on wood).
The Bengals started the season with a dramatic and hugely disappointing loss to Denver at home on the immaculate deflection tip play. The offense and special teams struggled and wasted a tremendous effort by the defense. Palmer and Co. did show for the first time the ability to drive and score when they needed to, but it was not enough. In the rearview mirror, the loss doesn’t look too bad considering what Denver has gone on to do. The Bengals then travelled to Green Bay and overcame two costly Palmer interceptions, including a pick six, to beat the Packers. Antwan Odom lead a pass rush that took advantage of playing what’s shaped up to be the worst offensive line in the league and immerged as the NFL’s sack leader after tallying 5 in the game. The game came down to the gun again with Aaron Rodgers running out of time deep in Bengals territory. The Bengals next welcomed the Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium and pulled out a win in a game they should’ve lost. For one Sunday at least, the teams traded traditional rolls with Steelers being the team that traded touchdowns for fieldgoals and failing to convert key first downs. Again the Bengals offense sputtered but came up big on two fourth quarter touchdown drives, including the dagger to Andre Caldwell to seal the win. Week 4, the Bengals travelled to Cleveland and squeaked out an overtime win in a game that looked to be a blowout in the first half. The offense failed to execute in the redzone early, and frankly, at all through huge chunks of the game allowing the Browns to get some momentum and points. The failures of the kicking game which had reared their ugly heads all season, really hurt in this game. Shayne Graham narrowly avoided the second tie in as many years in a very ugly game. The Bengals met the Ravens in Baltimore in week 5, and again survived poor offensive execution and costly turnovers to win late. The defense was dominant and the offense moved the ball but the effort was nearly wasted because of key missed tackles on a Ray Rice dump pass that led to a touchdown and a pick six by Ed Reed. Palmer once again rallied the troops and drove, with the help of several bonehead penalties by the Ravens, to the win on a second game winning strike to Andre Caldwell. The game was an especially emotional game considering the loss of Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife during the week. Just when this team looked like something special, the Houston Texans came to town in week 6 and exploited an aggressive defense that had given up big plays all season with huge screen plays to Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, and key redzone passes to Owen Daniels. The Bengals offense was going to have to score to keep pace, and instead completely fell apart in the second half. Dropped passes and fumbles by both tight ends sealed the second loss of the season. The Bengals also lost Antwan Odom for the season in this game, a disappointing finish to a very promising season for the team’s best pass rusher. The Texan’s loss made the Week 7 matchup at home with Bears all the more important. A win puts you at 5-2 going into the bye; a loss drops you to 4-3 with the two biggest division rivals lurking after the layoff. The Bengals responded with their best offensive performance in recent memory, utterly dominating the Bears to the tune of 31-3 at the half. The offense finally showed how dominant they can be when receivers are actually catching the ball. 5 touchdown passes in the first 6 scoring drives showed that Carson Palmer is still an elite level quarterback. So what are my impressions of this team at the bye?
Offensively, if they can execute a clean game plan they can move the ball on anyone. Coach Lewis and Bob Bratkowski have recommitted this team to the run and Cedric Benson, Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott have all made big contributions already. The offensive line, reorganized and revamped with several new faces this season, has played well and deserves a ton of credit. Andre Smith should be able to contribute to an already solid group sometime in the second half as well. The receiving corps is starting to immerge from the post-TJ Houshmandzadeh era with some real play making from Chad 8-5, who’s returned to Pro Bowl form, and contributions from Caldwell especially. The receivers, led by Coles and Caldwell are a much better blocking unit than they ever were with TJ. Chad will even stick his head in there to help on runs and screens. When you see big runs, it means everyone is blocking, and big runs have not been seen consistently in Cincinnati for a long time. Hopefully the Bears game is a sign that Laverneus Coles and Chris Henry will be a bigger part of this offense moving forward, especially in the redzone. If there is a unit that has been a disappointment on the offense it has to be at tight end. Pre-season losses of both Reggie Kelley and Ben Utecht have had a lasting impact considering the inconsistent play of Daniel Coats and JP Foschi as replacements. Coats especially has had a tough season. Although he has made significant contributions at times, including a huge TE screen against Green Bay and a pancake block on James Farrior in the Pittsburgh game, he has made several key mistakes which have led to his demotion from the first team. Some of this I do blame on the coaching staff for expecting Coats and Foschi to replace Kelley and Utecht with no drop off. The Bengals have played a ton of two tight end sets or sets with Foschi at tight end and Coats at fullback, which have helped the run game tremendously. If these guys are used to their strengths and not asked to do too much, they can contribute. Jeremy Johnson has also returned to solid form (pun intended) and has helped the run game as well as catching some passes again like he did so well in ’05-’06. Any discussion of offense should’ve begun, but will certainly end with Carson Palmer. If you want one stat that tells you how effective this offense is playing, look at Palmers completion percentage. The Bengals will always be an aggressive team with Palmer at the helm, with a high percentage of passes going over 10 yards. The dig route has been extremely effective this year to both Chad and Chris Henry, and Palmer will never hesitate to throw the fade. With so many deep passes, if his completion percentage approaches the mid-.60’s the opposition is in trouble. He has shown more athleticism and play extending ability than I can ever remember him showing, and his accuracy and arm strength appear to be all the way back from previous injuries. This is his team, and he has rallied it around him when it has mattered most. Carson is on pace for 3,600 yards and 30 TD’s, Chad is on pace for 1,300 yards and 11 TD’s, and Benson is on pace for 1,600 yards and 11 TD’s. All of those are Pro Bowl worthy. The concerns I have going forward this season, it’s an over-reliance on Chad in the passing game and the general consistency of execution by the offense. When Carson has gotten in trouble, including both pick sixes, he has targeted Chad and everyone knew it. The other receivers, tight ends and backs have to do a solid job of catching and securing the ball to make this unit elite caliber. This team is not as good as they showed against the Bears and not as bad as they showed against the Texans. They cannot fluctuate that wildly from week to week if they are going to get to, and make noise in, the playoffs.
Defensively, this is a scrappy unit that has overcome giving up the most big plays in the league to keep the Bengals in every game but one. They have come up huge in the redzone and have the ability to create turnovers. The defense has done a decent job against the run, but is still pretty average in creating a pass rush. Obviously the loss of Odom hurts, but this team did a great job in the draft of stealing Michael Johnson who has made immediate contributions as a rush end. Domata Peko is a tremendous football player, and his return last week after hurting his knee against Houston gave the defense a huge boost. Tank Johnson and Pat Simms have played well, especially against the run, and guys like Johnathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker have filled in at both end and tackle against the pass pretty well. Robert Geathers is the unsung hero of that front unit. The linebackers have the potential to be really good, but have experienced the growing pains of playing Keith Rivers, who missed half his rookie season, and rookie Rey Maualuga for significant amounts of time. Dhani Jones has played pretty well at the Mike position and guys like Brandon Johnson have played really well, particularly in pass situations. This is a very aggressive front that brings a lot of Mike Zimmer blitzes. They are at their best when playing from ahead, and have not gotten much help from the offense so far this season in that regard. The secondary is led by two corners who both deserve Pro Bowl consideration in JJoseph and Leon Hall. This is the best tandem in the division by far, guys who can play the pass and help in run support. Thankfully, Chris Crocker is back at the free safety position and not being asked to be the nickel corner for this team. As a safety he is a very good player who can blitz, hit in the run game and ball hawk. As a corner he was garbage. Morgan Trent has not played a whole lot better at the nickel corner, and the middle of the field has been exploited by every team. The safeties have been in flux all year, and it has shown in some blown coverages at inopportune times. Roy Williams has been dealing with a forearm injury and Crocker was playing out of position for several weeks, forcing Chinny Ndukwe to play significant time. Hopefully with Trent playing more the zone coverage of the safeties will be better going forward. If guys get beat in coverage, they get beat. You can’t afford blown coverages. As I said, the best Bengals defense is really their offense, which has left this defense on the field too much this season. Tackling is key to this type of blitzing scheme, and the defense seemed to have learned some valuable lessons from the Texans game. This is still going to be a team that relies on blitzes to augment the pass rush of the front line guys, so it’s always a case of risk/reward. One thing is certain; this is no longer a push over unit that makes the Bengals totally one-dimensional. There are playmakers on this side of the ball too, guys that make this a playoff caliber team.
You can’t talk about the Bengals special teams without starting with a bad Brad St. Louis snap. The Bengals are very fortunate not have more losses considering the complete failure of the kicking game to execute while St. Louis was still snapping. Now that he has been replaced and we’ve seen some decent field goal kicks, I think the Bengals are past that hurdle. The coverage game has been decent at times, but has allowed some long returns in both the Cleveland and Pittsburgh games. Kevin Huber has been a real find at Punter, and has been very solid at pinning opponents inside the 20. The return game is as good as it has been under Lewis, with Quan Cosby very solid on punts and Caldwell and Scott have shown flashes on kick returns. This unit has the makings of a good unit if they can play more consistently.
Overall this has the makings of a solid wild card team, with a decent possibility of a division winner. Let’s talk a little bit about the upcoming schedule and breakdown the opponents:
Week 9-Baltimore
This is a team that could be in complete disarray if they don’t beat Denver this week, and is a team the Bengals pretty much dominated in Baltimore. The Raven defense lacks playmaking at the corner positions and has given up a ton of yardage through the air. The Raven offense is Ray Rice right now, and outside of one play, the Bengals contained him. Look for the Ravens to have studied the Texans game film and use Rice all over in the passing game. The Bengals have historically matched up well against the Ravens under Palmer, and I think they’ll have a good shot at a win.
Week 10-@Steelers
Always a tough opponent, now the Steelers have their best player back. They just won a huge game over Minnesota and will be coming off another big game at Denver before welcoming the Bengals. The Steelers beat the Bengals everywhere but on the scoreboard the first time around, and I fully expect a loss here. Even if the Bengals lose both of these first two they’re in decent shape, but I’d look for a split.
Week 11-@Oakland
The Bengals let down after Baltimore earlier this season, they can’t afford a let down here. The Raider defense is a scrappy unit with some talent, but unless the Raiders can run, their offense is putrid. The Bengals should take care of business.
Week12-Cleveland
Outside of the first Bengals/Browns matchup, the Browns quarterbacks have played horribly. The Browns will probably be up emotionally for this matchup, but the Bengals should pound them at home. It may again be uglier than it should be, but the Bengals have to win this game. They should be 8-3 at this point.
Week13-Detroit
The third bad football team in a row and second at home should be no match. The Lions have some offensive weapons, especially if Matt Stafford is playing, but the defense is dreadful. Barring implosion, the Bengals win again.
Week14-@Minnesota
The grind begins in earnest. The Bengals had better pad the wins before they start this stretch because the Vikings are a legit Super Bowl contender, especially if Antoine Winfield is back. I fully expect the Viking offensive line and Adrian Peterson to wear this team out forcing extra guys in the box and exposing the deep secondary. If Favre is still healthy, this will be a tough one for the Bengals. Look for the fourth loss of the season.
Week15-@San Diego
The Chargers seem to always play their best football at the end of the season, right when the Bengals come to town off a loss to the Vikes. The deep passing attack of the Chargers and Antonio Gates over the middle will be very tough for the Bengals defense to contain. This one will probably be a lot like the Texans game where the offense has to score a ton to win. I expect them to fail in doing so and racking up their 5th loss and second in a row.
Week16-Kansas City
Angry off two losses and welcoming a pretty underwhelming KC team, the Bengals should find a way to finally get their 10th win. KC has a decent passing game, but their running game has disappeared and their defense is terrible. I expect a big day for the Bengals offense and a win.
Week17-@NY Jets
This could either be a very meaningful game or not meaningful at all, depending on playoff slotting. Let’s go with meaningful, as it could mean the difference between a wild card and division win. The Bengals turnover creating defense could take advantage of a young quarterback who will still be learning to play in the elements. The Jets will become more run dependant in the second half to lessen the impact of Sanchez’s interceptions, so the Bengals must contain it to win. The Jets are an aggressive defense, but the Bengals match-up pretty well against those types of teams. Darelle Revis will be a tough match-up for Chad 8-5, so other guys will have to step up. The Bengals fall in a game they should win and end up 10-6.
The ultimate record hinges on the play of the offense.
The schedule puts this team in the playoffs unless they completely fall down, but there’s a big difference between 10 and 11 wins. I still don’t buy that they can be consistent enough to put teams away or get crucial first downs against quality opponents. The defense, to borrow from Dennis Green, is who we think they are. Good, not elite. This is not last year’s Steeler D, and is not good enough to lean on week in and week out. The whole team is capable of getting 11 wins , but I think we’ll have to settle for 10 wins and wild card. Still not bad considering how little faith most people had at the beginning of the year.
No comments:
Post a Comment