Yesterday on Mark's show the discussion was about what the Reds could do, or not do, in the trade market to bolster this team. One of the regular's to the Dayton sports radio scene called up with the suggestion of trading for Carl Crawford from the Rays. I thought I'd take a look at that first.
Carl Crawford is the best player on the second best team in the league, to the tune of 4.8 Wins Above Replacement (Evan Longoria is second with a 4.1 in case you were wondering). Crawford is in the last year of his deal, but a trade when the team is leading the Wildcard and only 2.5 games behind a suddenly beat up Yankees team is unlikely. I think this is the Rays last, best shot at a title, until they get into the new stadium anyhow. Reportedly the team will slash their payroll to $60M next season, meaning that Crawford and fellow free agents Carlos Pena and Raphael Soriano are all gone. Now with Crawford, the Rays have a potential replacement in AAA in Desmond Jennings, and 1B and closers are relatively easy to find. I expect all to be offered arbitration, and all to decline. The prospect rich Rays will get several compensatory picks for their troubles. That's a long way of saying, that Crawford and his .318avg .374obp 11hr 33sb's are off the table. If you're looking at Rays, BJ Upton is the one that's available, though I'd steer clear.
Speaking of Reds, there are a couple interesting names I'd consider. One is Ty Wigginton, the Mark DeRosa-ish Baltimore Oriole all-star* (you get an asterisk if you're taken because your team has to be represented). TW can play 3B, 2B, and 1B and has a better bat than Miguel Cairo to fill in for the inevitable Scott Rolen injury. Last year, it cost the Cardinals RP Chris Perez and a PTBNL for DeRosa and I can't imagine it would be that much more for TW and his expiring contract. He'd have about $1.4-$1.5M on his deal, so they would be adding payroll unless Baltimore kicked in for a better prospect (which is what I'd expect). Problem is, the Reds are struggling with the bullpen already, so I'm not sure what they'd have to give up.
The other name is Jermain Dye, a free agent who's apparently priced himself out of a gig this season (see Owens, Terrell). He's a career .274 hitter who averaged 30 hr's a season in homer friendly Chicago, but he's atrocious in the field. His bat is superior to Jonny Gomes, but I don't know if he'd come on the cheap to a team where he won't play everyday. But who knows?
Aside from those guys, we've already debunked the idea of adding starting pitching now that Edinson Volquez has returned. That leaves the bullpen, and unless some teams start falling out of the race, the market rate for help is too high. The Reds may have to be content with dumpster diving for veterans like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen. Is Stormy Weathers available? (I sure hope not).
Who's Hot-
Gordon Beckham (also a pick up suggestion)-.500avg 2hr 8rbis last 2 weeks
Buster Posey & Aramis Ramirez-17rbi each last 2 weeks
John Jay-.452avg 8r last 2 weeks
Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, Stephen Stasburg-all 2-0 last 2 weeks
Johan Santana-2-0 last 2 weeks (trade for this guy if you can, the Mets play Ari, Pit, and Hou the next 20 games)
Madison Bumgarner-3 and freakin 0 the last 2 weeks.
Who's Not-
Jay Bruce-(sigh) He had a 3 run jack robbed vs. Col. .089 0hr last 2 weeks
Chone Figgins-.158avg 1sb last 2 weeks (big disappointment this year-look for him to be a good value pick next year)
Dan Haren & Edwin Jackson-combined 0-4 7era for the Dbacks the last 2 weeks. When's this season over? Seems like the Dbacks never got started.
Positional Pick-ups-
Mr. Beckham is back in the swing. Only owned in 44% of yahoo leagues.
Chris Davis 1B Tex-Now that Smoak is gone, Davis can catch fire (sorry, that was lame). He can help if you need homers, but he's boom or busty.
Yunel Escobar SS Tor-Toronto has been homer happy for everyone the last couple of years, and Escobar's already hit 2 in his new uni (even though they were on the road). I expect him to tear it up and for A Gonzalez to fall off with the Braves. (Another case of "real" baseball value being different from fantasy).
Call-ups-
It's getting to the time when call-ups can impact your stretch run too. These are some positional guys worth watching.
Brett Wallace 1B Tor-Really good hitter who could put up big numbers in a hurry in that park.
JP Arencibia C Tor-John Buck is on the block for the fading Jays, and Arencibia has been killing it in AAA. His numbers will regress outside Vegas baby, but he's still an above average hitting catcher. File this name away for next year, he could be Miguel Oliva-ish.
Dustin Ackley LF Sea-Talk is Ackley is going to play infield, which only helps his value. He was arguably the best hitting prospect in the draft this year and is reportedly very close to the bigs.
***Editor's note-Once again our on air segment is nothing like this, so I'd advise you to listen AND read the blog. Really, you should be reading this blog at least twice a day. It's like brushing your teeth!***
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