(More late game heroics from the Cardiac Cats. Palmer to Caldwell again seals a big divisional win. Next to no offense from Baltimore, but a pick six from Ed Reed made it interesting. Here was the preview).
Bengals v Ravens I-primer
So why can’t I get it out of my head that the Bengals are going to win Sunday? The Ravens are far superior on paper despite an identical 3-1 record, and it’s in Baltimore, so this one shouldn’t be close right? The Ravens have proven they are a good team while the Bengals could just as easily be 1-3 at this point, so what drugs am I on? Well, I can tell you that I am not yet drinking the Kool Aid but I still think this has the chance to be a Bengals win. Let’s break it down, shall we.
When the Ravens have the ball:
The Ravens have been a scary team offensively this year. They’ve run the ball very effectively with Ray Rice racking up good yardage on the ground and in the screen game and the resurgent Willis McGahee dominating the redzone. Joe Flacco has used this running game to great effect in play action, and in attacking downfield over drawn up coverage. Derrick Mason has been very good and is still the team’s best deep threat, while Kelley Washington and Mark Clayton have been solid (except for a big drop last week by Clayton). Todd Heap is overdue for an injury, but so far has been healthy and solid. This has been one of the top statistical units in the league so far this year, and exhibits the kind of balance that has to scare defensive coordinators. This unit also had success against the Bengals last year, so there’s certainly a lot to be concerned about.
The problems for the Ravens offense going into this game are two-fold: one, the defenses they’ve played against this year have not exactly been world-beaters, and two, the offensive line will be missing their starting left tackle Jared Gaither. Let’s talk about these in turn.
The Ravens have played Kansas City (#28 in total defense), San Diego (#24 in total defense), Cleveland (#32 in total defense), and New England (#7 in total defense). Outside of New England, and we’re not talking a typical New England defense, this team has dominated very suspect units. Further, looking at the metrics of Football Outsiders, they’ve played 4 of the worst 7 defensive fronts in the league so far. This makes me wonder just how good the running game really is, and how it stacks up against a defensive front for the Bengals that at the least ranks in the top half of the league?
Further compounding this question is the fact that the Ravens will more than likely have rookie Michael Oher starting his first NFL game at left tackle and will be starting a backup at the right tackle spot. The rest of this line features some solid players in center Matt Birk and guards Ben Grubbs and Chris Chester, but the perimeter of the line will be tested by Mike Zimmer’s defense. If the Bengals are going to win this game, it will be because of the play of Antwan Odom, Robert Geathers and Michael Johnson bringing constant pressure off the edge. This will force the Ravens to help their tackles by sliding protection, and adding backs and tight ends to keep Flacco upright. If the Ravens max protect, those backs and tight ends can’t help out running routes. If the Bengals can get a rush without having to blitz, they can drop more guys and look for picks. The pass rush must get to Flacco.
The Bengals strategy in pass coverage is easy to see to this point in the season. They are going to take the other team’s best wideout out of the game and make other players beat them. They cannot let Mason get behind the coverage, so expect the deep safety to be on his side of the field all day long. That means opportunities for Clayton and Washington to make plays. I’m sure nothing would make K.Wash happier than doing the squirrel dance in the endzone against the team that drafted him and wouldn’t let him play receiver. You have to give the guy credit for plugging away as a special teamer for the Bengals and Patriots in order to get another chance to play offense.
I think the Ravens will run the ball for decent yardage in this game, the key will stopping them in the redzone. Ray Rice can get 100 yards, as long as Whatchutalkinbout Willis doesn’t get 2 touchdowns. Redzone defense has been the key to the Bengals 3-1 start and it will more than likely decide this game too. Flacco has had success against this team (including winning his first career start in Baltimore last season), and this team has talent of that side of the ball, so this is easier said than done.
Turnovers will always be a key in a divisional game like this, and right now the Ravens are +2. A disruptive pass rush will increase the chances of turnovers and negative plays. If the pass rush fails in this game against these tackles, we can put the playoff talk to bed early. This needs to be a baptism by fire for young Mr. Oher. I don’t think the limb I’m on is too long when I say this will be the best defense the Ravens have yet faced.
When the Bengals have the ball:
With the exception of a Brady Quinn led Cleveland team, every team has put up at least 24 points on the Ravens. Yes, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs play on this team. Yes, they are still a top 10 team in total defense. Yes, they are stopping the run to the tune of 60 yards a game. Yes, they should dominate a Bengals offensive unit that has struggled to move the ball consistently in any game so far. So why do I have any confidence the Bengals can take it to the vaunted Ravens D?
Carson Palmer has had success against this team. Even Brodie Croyle threw two touchdowns against this team. #1 receivers have had success against this team, the Bengals have one of those. The Patriots, who have played pretty similarly to the Bengals offensively so far this year, were able to move the ball against this team. Really, these are all superfluous but may indicate some deeper cracks in the Raven armor.
Why are teams able to pass on this team? First, their corners are average at best. Neither Foxworth or Fabian Washington would start for the Bengals, and this is an especially good matchup for Chad MuchoMoutho. The Ravens will have to roll coverage to his side as well, which gives the other guys in the patterns opportunities. The Ravens are an aggressive team, and they will blitz early and often. The coverage will be tight which means guys have to get off jams and have to understand their hot route assignments. If you can break a tackle, short passes can become long gains. The pass rush for the Ravens has not been as good as it has in the past. Terrell Suggs has been criticized for being out of shape and hasn’t had the impact of the player we expect to see. Also, Brandon Ayanbadejo is out for the season. He’s been a special teams ace for several seasons, and was developing into a pass rush specialist for this defense. His loss is a blow to this team.
Ed Reed still prowls the secondary, and is the preeminent ball hawk in the game even with a sore knee. He is the best player on that team, Ray Lewis included, and makes the defense dynamic with his ability to freelance. The best way to attack him is to spread the field and get multiple guys involved. Make him move and keep the bay away from him rather than testing him directly. Make him frustrated by lack of involvement, that’s your only shot.
Cedric Benson and the running attack will not be a factor in this game, but the Bengals must at least try to run. My fear is that Bob Bratkowski will once again be predictable with his run-run-pass play calling. The Bengals best chances to run will come in “pass” situations on draws or delays. For this and the screen game, I think Bernard Scott will have a better chance to make an impact than Benson. This game, like the Steelers game, could have one or two runs represent the vast majority of the total rushing yards for the game. The strength of the defensive front seven is Kelly Gregg, Haloti Ngata, and Ray Lewis, so interior running just doesn’t work against this team on traditional running downs. New England was very effective in short yardage using quick counts, so I’d expect the Bengals to try that and frankly, the Ravens to be ready for it. The key will be doing enough running to still use play-action effectively. The flea flicker to TJ two years ago comes to mind.
I think the Ravens have been trying to get by on intimidation more than skill, and it’s time it caught up with them. They will be fired up for this game, especially early, so it’s important for the Bengals to match the intensity without getting stupid penalties. Evan Mathis and Kyle Cook will really have their hands full in this game, and I’d expect a lot of overloads to that side. The backs and tight ends, as always, will have to block well. Given time, this passing offense is due to explode on someone. They have the talent to do it against this team.
Teams:
Chris Carr, the Ravens punt and kick returner is injured so this should favor a Bengals unit that was torched by the best returner in the game in Josh Cribbs. John Harbaugh was a special teams coach, so the Ravens are generally very solid in coverage. Anything you can get out of returns this week is a bonus. Field position will be important, as the Ravens offense is too good to get the short field too often. Steven Hauschka’s longest field goal this year is 44 yards, and I’d like to see this guy having to kick more often than not. The Bengals are running Brad St. Louis out again as long snapper, so hold your breath every time they line up for a kick. It’s evident the kicking game is a weakness on this team right now that has lost them one game and nearly cost them another. Unacceptable results if you’re even thinking about the playoffs.
Prediction:
While an outright win may be too much to call for, there’s nothing these teams have done this season to indicate that the Ravens are 8 ½ points better than the Bengals. Excluding the Chiefs and Browns, clearly two teams that will be drafting players that will actually be sitting in the room next April, the Ravens have beaten the Chargers by 5 and lost to the Pats by 6. To me, this is another example of overreaction by the odds makers. The Bengals barely beat the Browns, and should’ve lost to the Steelers. Okay, but in the past, the Bengals WOULD’VE lost those games. This team, especially the offense, has not played as well as they are capable. This has put the defense on the field more often than not, which demonstrates the defense should be better than league average statistically. The Ravens may very well not be as good as advertised. The offense has yet to face a top defensive line and the defense has given up chunks of yards and big plays in the passing game. I think all these bode well for the Bengals this week. Of course, I keep having the recurring nightmare that was the season opener last year. Bengals offense struggles; Ravens eventually wear down the defense and win an ugly game. This year, I think it’s different.
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