(The Bengals came off a huge, emotional win against the rival Steelers to play a pretty dreadful game against the Browns in week 4. In what was almost their second tie in two years, now former Bengal Shayne Graham hit a very controversial field goal with time expiring in overtime. The kicked sailed directly over the right upright and was as close to a miss as you can come. Either way, the Bengals would take the win and go to 3-1. Here was the preview:)
Cincinnat v. Cleveland I-primer
Okay, so you have one team that’s a fluke deflected pass from a 3-0 start going up against a team that many in the national media are calling the worst team in the NFL. A mismatch of epic proportions, right? Well, yes and no.
The Bengals are all at once better and worse than their 2-1 record, including wins at Green Bay and a huge win at home over Pittsburgh. This team has not played all that well, but has shown a resilience that has allowed them to win games they would have lost in years past. The defense is much more physical than they’ve ever been under Marvin Lewis and the offense, which has flashed scary potential, has not put it together for anywhere near a full game. I don’t know how good this team is, but good teams win games under adverse conditions like the Green Bay and Pittsburgh games. There is reason for legitimate optimism going into week 4 for the first post season berth since 2005. (knock on wood).
The Browns on the other hand have been every bit as bad as their 0-3 record would indicate. They currently sit dead last in offense and third to last in defense; not a good start. But let’s give them just a little credit. They’ve lost to Minnesota, Denver and Baltimore, all teams that are leading their divisions with a grand total of zero loses, and in the top 7 in total defense. The last two were road games, both tough places to win. I don’t know that the Bengals would get more than one win against those teams in consecutive weeks right out of the shoot.
When the Browns have the ball:
So Mangenius has benched Brady Quinn for Derek Anderson; big deal. After watching the draft strategy way back in April it was apparent this team was trying to be a ball control team with the selection of Alex Mack. On paper, the offensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team and would’ve fit well with Quinn’s particular skills in the short passing game, if the team could…you know…run the ball or stop anyone defensively. The reality is that this team is going to be playing from behind the majority of the season and Quinn just doesn’t scare anyone with the threat of a vertical passing game. Enter Anderson. For all his issues, and there are many, he can wing it deep and he’s had some of his best days against the boys in stripes. What did Mangini have to lose by making the switch, really? All it does is make him look like a bigger schmuck than he already does. Again, big deal.
The play of the offensive line in particular has to be supremely disappointing for the Browns. Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are still formidable on the left, and the team will be better with Hank Fraley and Alex Mack playing on the same line. But Right Tackle has been a significant problem for this team since Ryan Tucker began to accumulate serious injuries. Kevin Shaeffer wasn’t the answer and neither is John St. Clair. The Browns through a combination of a lack of scoring, especially early, and a defense that isn’t stopping anyone, are in pass protection far too early and often. The right side is especially vulnerable and will see plenty of overloads on blitzes from the Bengals. Makes you wonder if they should’ve taken a Tackle instead of Center at the end of round one. But you can’t really question Mangini’s track record of talent evaluating can you?
It’s probably a blessing that creaky old Jamaal Lewis is questionable for this game. Jerome Harrison has flashed homerun hitting ability both carrying and catching the ball, and has been stuck behind Lewis for too long. He is a smaller back in the Leon Washington mold, and can’t be expected to carry 25 times, but he’s the Brown’s best chance to make the Bengals respect the running game and pay for overly aggressive blitzing. Rookie James Davis looked good in preseason and will get touches as well, but is nicked a bit with a shoulder. Both starting Defensive Tackles are hurt for the Bengals, so the interior line will be a little thin against the run. (The Bengals have been sliding Odom to DT and using Fanene on passing downs). Hopefully the Bengals offense, as much as their defense, renders the Browns run game moot.
Anderson at least brings the threat of a vertical, quick strike attack. He and Braylon Edwards have teamed up for big games in the past. Remember it was only last year, in week 5, when a 1-3 Browns team lit up a flat 4-0 Giants team behind 310 passing yards from Anderson and 154 receiving yards from Edwards. Much like now, this was a very frustrated team that put it together for one night against a much better opponent and won. Anderson has been wildly inconsistent is his career but can play at high level if the planets align correctly. As is usually the case, the way to ensure poor play is to get pressure on this guy early and often. So far the offensive line has cooperated.
Mangini also made sure the Browns would have no passing game by releasing Kellen Winslow in the offseason. Yes he was a head case, but he was also good for 80 catches when healthy, and the Browns have no one at TE or WR who can match that production. Josh Cribbs is a tremendous football player, but I don’t think he’s even the receiver Devin Hester is at this point. Basically, roll a safety to Edwards’ side and make the other guys beat you should be the Bengals strategy. Chris Crocker has been iffy as the nickel corner, so the best chance to attack is at the seam. Johnathan Joseph is hurt as well as Roy Williams, so there’s reason to think this defense will give up some yards through the air. The key will be not allowing points. There should be no reason to have receivers behind coverage. This team did a good job containing Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall, but let Limas Sweed and Mike Wallace get behind them.
When the Bengals have the ball:
As bad as the Browns offense has been, at least there are some talented guys on that side of the ball who should be decent on paper. The only guy I’d consider taking off the Browns defense is Eric Wright who is a good corner lost in a horrid secondary. This defense was bad last year, and looks worse this year. Sean Rodgers is the most disruptive player in the front seven when healthy. He isn’t and his replacement at Nose Tackle is not Sean Rodgers. Kam Wembley has shown flashes of being a good outside backer, but has not been become the dominant Joey Porter type player the Browns thought he’d become. I truly believe the Browns will come to regret not taking Brian Orakpo in the last draft and pairing him with Wembley. The team has not been able to consistently rush the passer for longer than I can remember. Each unit on the defense is below average, and lacks playmakers outside of the three mentioned above.
The Bengals should be able to move the ball both on the ground and over the top against this team. I expect a big dose of Ced Benson, probably to the tune of 150 yards and a TD. Rodgers, Kenyon Coleman, and Corey Williams are all questionable, and so I would say is the Browns chance of winning at the point of attack. D’Qwell Jackson and Eric Barton should be no match for Jeremy Johnson or any linemen pulling into the second level. Bobbie Williams, Evan Mathis, and Kyle Cook should be able to push this group around, especially if the Bengals can dominate time of possession going into the 4th quarter. Again look for the Bengals to target the left side like they did against the Steelers, matching Andrew Whitworth and company against Robaire Smith and David Bowens. The corners will present no problems in run support against the Bengals blockers, especially with Wright having a bad hand. I see big run potential, and maybe this is the week we see what my man B. Scott can do.
This Browns secondary was bad before Wright hurt his hand, so it’s worse now. Brandon McDonald is a marginal starting cornerback and the safeties may be the worst in the league. If the Bengals do get the running game going and the safeties have to come up, the game is over. Play-action will open up big plays downfield and could easily be a three TD game for Carson Palmer.
The only real concern I have is if the Bengals revert back to way they played in the Green Bay game and the first half of the Steelers game and commit dumb penalties that stall drives and turn touchdowns into field goals. This combined with the inevitable odd ball playing calling could leave points on the field. The only way this game is close is if the Bengals stop the Bengals. The Bengals should guard against over confidence and being overly aggressive, both of which can lead to turnovers. Go out and make a statement, and don’t even think of giving this game away.
Teams:
Josh Cribbs as a returner is the Browns most consistent threat to score. He is as good as anyone in the league. The Bengals have also shown the ability to return both punts and kicks this season, so the gap here isn’t what it has been. Phil Dawson will probably not play, and Shayne Graham is not back to 100%, so don’t look for a bunch of 50+ yard bombs this week. Both teams have good punters, and hopefully it’s Zastudil with twice the number of punts.
Prediction:
The only way the Bengals lose this game is if they beat themselves, especially offensively. I expect the Browns to put up more points this week than they have any of their previous games, but don’t look too much into it if they do. The Bengals have injuries to five defensive starters (WhoDey Rey not previously mentioned) including two in the secondary against a team that will be looking to go deep. If the Browns can keep it close after the first quarter, they will pick up some confidence. The Bengals should look to take the ball and score early and often to take this away and make the Browns one dimensional. They are a desperate team, a home dog to a divisional foe and a better team on paper. Sound familiar? The biggest difference though between this game and the Bengals v. Steelers game last week is that Bengals are a much, much more talented team. In the end, the lack of talent will catch up to the Browns and the Bengals win. Beware the spread; however, as the Bengals love to do dumb things to take points away from themselves, or get cute and give possessions back to the opponent. I need to see more play like they had in the second half against the Steelers to believe this team has their act together.
Two characteristics of a good team are finding ways to win games when you don’t play your best, and taking care of the teams you’re supposed to beat. The Bengals showed the former last week; let’s see the later against the Browns.
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