Friday, February 25, 2011

Some draft will be coming.....

I'm sure you'll be holding your breath!

The Wainwright Injury

Might have to rethink my division winner picks, but I think St. Louis is one of the 3 or 4 teams in the league that can survive that kind of loss and still compete for the division. Why?

1. The division is overrated. It was horrid last year, and Zach Grienke and Matt Garza don't automatically make it better. A high 80's win total can still win this division.

2. Chris Carpenter is the ace of the Cardinals. OK, Wainwrights WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is better the last couple of years, but Carpenter is still the #1. I love Wainwright, but go look at his home/road splits last year. Carpenter is the one I'd take if I had to choose.

3. The Cards offense will be better this year. Pujols will be better, Holliday will be good, Rasmus will continue to grow, and I think Theriot can hit better. If they get anything decent out of Berkman, this offense will be fine.

4. Dave Duncan is the crusty Jedi Master of MLB. Whether it's a young guy like McClellan or a reclamation project like Snell, someone will give them at least league average production to lessen the blow. Who the hell was Jaime Garcia last year?

The verdict. They may be 4 wins worse in 2011 than they would've been, but I liked them for more than 87.5 anyhow. I'll take them at 86 or 87 to make things interesting in a division sure to disappoint.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

2011 MLB Divisional Previews-NL Central

Gotta start somewhere, and it might as well be in the Reds division. The Reds won this division last year, arguably the worst in all of baseball, by absolutely pounding the bad teams. It's hard, nay impossible, to imagine this division will be as bad as 2011 so the Reds have their work cut out to win it again.

Predictions-
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Astros
6. Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals
Strengths-
Love their starting pitching, and any lineup anchored by Albert Pujols is formidable. La Russa and Duncan are as good as it gets as coaches.
Weaknesses-
Average at best bullpen is a perennial concern. There's little to no pop out of the infield outside Pujols.
X-factor-
What do they get out of Lance Berkman in RF? Holliday will put up numbers, and Rasmus is improving, but how much does LB have in the tank? Especially since he hasn't played regularly in the OF since 2004. Not a wise investment of $8M in my opinion.

Milwaukee Brewers
Strengths-
The offense is going to be fearsome again this year, especially if Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have better year's than 2010. The starting pitching, which was a major disappointment last year, has been bolster by adding Zach Grienke and Shaun Marcum to sandwich the dominant Yovani Gallardo. I also like the bullpen anchored by John Axford who emerged last year after age finally caught up to Trevor Hoffman.
Weaknesses-
Team defense is not a strength, especially replacing SS Alcides Escobar for Yunesky Betancourt in the Grienke deal. CF Carlos Gomez might be the only plus defender on the team. This may also be a make or break year for the Brew Crew as Prince Fielder is almost certainly gone in free agency very soon and they've put a ton into the rotation in the offseason for this run.
X-Factor-
Can Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks repeat their 2010 performances and again combine for 60 homers? They dumped a bunch of money on Hart and are going to arbitration with Weeks. I'm not a fan of either guy, especially Hart. Too Richie Sexson-ish for me.

Cincinnati Reds
Strengths-
The core of this team is young, very good, and only now starting to cost the team real money. Joey Votto is one of the best young players in the game, but he's not alone. Names like Bruce, Chapman, Volquez, Cueto, Leake and Wood are already big league staples and the minors are far from bare. The present is bright, but the future could be even brighter. This team lead the NL in offense, and might be better balanced this season if Bruce continues to emerge.
Weaknesses-
No real #1 starter. It's Volquez, but that's really unfair to a guy coming off TJ surgery. Arroyo has been consistent, but is a #3. Cueto is probably a #2. Not enough impact RH bats. Rolen gave the Reds 130 games last year, but he really faded late. Brandon Phillips is very good, but he's a #2 hitter and is probably at his absolute peak. Outside those guys, there are a bunch of #7 and #8 hitters. Dusty continued to run Jonny Gomes out in the #5 slot last season, and only a red hot May kept his numbers respectable. No real leadoff hitter. Stubbs is probably the best suited, but he hasn't handled the pressure to this point. Fred Lewis will get his chance, and while I like him, he gives you average CF offense from a corner OF position. Not ideal. The bullpen adds a missle, but loses Arthur Rhodes from the left side.
X-factor-
How well can this bullpen pitch? Cordero is Cordero at closer. He scares the bejesus out of you, but manages 40 saves. The Cuban Missile and Nick Masset will set up, and both guys are lively. Masset especially has to be more consistent. Arthur Rhodes was absolutely dominant in the first half last year, who fills his shoes? There are a lot of live arms who will try.

Chicago Cubs
Strengths-
Hmmm, I thought this would be easier. Carlos Marmol, they have him. Control's spotty at times, but he struck out 138 in 72 IP and saved 38 games. That's nice. And they added Matt Garza, I like him. Aramis Ramirez is great when he's healthy, and Tyler Colvin hit 20 HRs as a rookie. Marlon Byrd was okay. That's all I got.
Weaknesses-
They're still counting on overpaid has beens like Soriano and Zambrano, or never weres like Fukudome to carry this team. Carlos Pena replaces Derek Lee at 1B. Pena may hit 30 HRs, but he won't hit his weight (although the OBP is usually decent).
X-factor-
Randy Wells. He pitched better than his 14 losses would dictate and I think he'll be a big part of this rotation for years to come.

Houston Astros
Strengths-
The have better starting pitching than Pittsburgh. Hunter Pence isn't horrible, and Carlos Lee is still decent. Yeah, that's all I got.
Weaknesses-
The big league club doesn't have a lot of young impact talent to build around and the system isn't stocked with talent on the verge. This team isn't going to be good again for awhile.
X-factor-
1B Brett Wallace and 3B Chris Johnson. 2 young guys with some promise who need to establish themselves as the core of this team going forward.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Strengths-
Good, young core of position players anchored by CF Andrew McCutcheon, LF Jose Tabata and 3B Pedro Alvarez. A decent pen, anchored by Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek. The offense might do some things, but the pitching is still scary bad.
Weaknesses-
Starting pitching, period. Consistently amongst the worst in the league. They did sign Kevin Correia from SD, and he's solid. We'll see what McDonald and Lincoln can do with more experience, and maybe they can get something from scrapheap reclamation Scott Olsen. Still, Maholm and Ohlendorf would not anchor any other staff in the league.
X-Factor-
GM Neil Huntington. This team is another year from making a move towards top of the pack, and it's going to take another keen move or two. There are some trade pieces on this team, like Ryan Doumit, who need to stay healthy long enough to generate some value.

So there you have it. The Reds could finish second, but I give the edge to the starting pitching for the Brew Crew. If the Cubs don't get a monster year from ARam, it's going to be tough for them to finish in the top 3. Don't count out two playoff teams out of this division as there could be quite a separation between the top 2 and the pack by year's end.