(Big time disappointment this week. The red hot Bengals go out and lay an offensive egg in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski would basically find Morgan Trent twice in one-on-one coverage at the end of the game, including the game winning touchdown. At least he'd go on the next week to do the same thing to the Steelers).
Bengals v. Raiders
So this is an automatic in the win column right? That’s what the Eagles thought too. While I do think the Bengals will come away with a win, this Raiders team does have some talent and is not quite on the level of Cleveland, Detroit, or Tampa in terms of the worst of the many bad teams in the league. Still, contending teams win games like this, even if it’s a little uglier than it should be on paper.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Raiders defense is pretty good actually. The have a solid Dline led by Richard Seymour and Gerrard Warren and a decent secondary led by the best corner in all of football, Nnamdi Asomugha (Nam-dee As-o-mwa). (You’re welcome). It’s tough to evaluate this unit’s rankings though, because of how badly their offense has played this season. While they are only allowing opponents to convert third downs at a 34% clip, are allowing less than 60% completion percentage, and are in the middle of the pack in sacks, they are giving up almost 370 yds/game and are being dominated in time of possession. This may be the best single unit of any of the teams with 2 or less wins, but they are severely hampered by their offense.
When a team has given up a ton of yards, but their 3rd down conversion rate is low, it tells you a couple things: they’ve given up big plays, and they’ve given up a lot of first downs on first and second down. Both of those bode well for a Bengals offense that has shown some big play ability. The run defense for the Raiders has been bad, but I wonder how much of that is fatigue caused by being on the field so long. The front, led by Seymour and Warren, is pretty stout and has gotten production from backups as well. I’m not enamored with their linebackers however, and see this group as a weakness to be exploited in the run game. They are athletic, but not particularly stout and will bend to constant pounding by Cincy blockers. Kirk Morrison, the Mike, is the third leading tackler in the league, so it’ll be important for Jeremy Johnson or the linemen to get a hat on him. They have done a very nice job against tight ends this season in the pass game and can run, so expect good backside pursuit on plays to the edges.
The Bengals, even if Ced Benson is out, will look to get the run game going against this team. If the pattern of the first half of the season holds to form, Oakland’s offense won’t do much and the Bengals will have the ball plenty. Attack directly at this front or with quick cut backs, but don’t expect much on the edges. Asomugha is especially good at run support from the edge; though he will have his hands full chasing Chad Eightfive around the field. The run game will set up the play action pass, which is the best way to get big plays against this secondary. This is a unit that has given up the most rushing touchdowns in the league, so expect whoever is carrying the rock to have some success. I’d like to see at least 10 and more like 15 touches for Great Scott, who will be the feature back since Benson is looking doubtful. Brian Leonard will see more than just his normal third down touches, and newly acquired Larry Johnson may see a series or two if Benson is out. Scott especially, has shown flashes of brilliance. If the Raiders can’t slow down the Bengals running attack, they have little chance of winning.
The Raiders, thanks to that #21, are as good as anyone (namely the Bengals) at shutting down the #1 receiver for the opposition. That means that once again, the complimentary receivers for the Bengals must step up. This will be more difficult if Vern Coles can’t go with what is being called a head injury. The best thing going for the pass offense is that they’ve played Baltimore and Pittsburgh back to back, so anyone else’s pass rush should look positively slow by comparison. I do expect the Raiders to have a lot of 8 in the box to stop the run, and will probably bring pressure more often than not, relying on the coverage of their corners. Carson Palmer must stay patient and make good decisions, as turnovers are the only realistic chance the Raiders have of beating this team. I am still concerned about the proportion of throws going to Chad in this offense, and that is only exacerbated if Coles doesn’t play.
If the Bengals can continue to score touchdowns in the redzone as the have all season, and protect the ball, they will win. The Raiders are giving up 24 a game, and should oblige. Keep the ball, stay balanced, and frustrate this defense into mistakes. That is the formula.
When the Raiders have the ball:
They have been abysmally bad this season. So bad in fact, that only the woeful Cleveland offense and their 5 offensive touchdowns keep the Raiders from being the worst in the league. Jamarcus Russell has officially fulfilled his “bust” label this season, further demonstrating that the player personnel evaluation skills Al Davis once had have totally eroded. The only thing Tom Cable could do, besides kicking his dog or beating his wife (allegedly), was benching Russell. Enter Brad Gostkowski, who when we last saw him, was beating the Bengals in Tampa courtesy of the worst roughing the passer penalty in the history of the sport. Still, a win is a win, and once again (a la Derek Anderson) the Bengals face a marginal quarterback whose career highlight came against them.
This offense is built to run the ball, well supposedly for running the ball. Well, it would be if they had an offensive line that actually move people. The running backs are a relatively talented group, with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush all getting touches this year. The Bengals bring the second best run stopping unit to the party however, and I think you’ll see plenty of defenders ready to put the game in the quarterback’s hands. As Marvin Lewis said last week, the secondary especially has done a really nice job in run support this year and that defenses that are really good against the run do it by defending from the outside in. Leon Hall, JJoe, Chris Crocker and Chinedum Ndukwe have all had a hand in the getting the run defense to #2.
When the game has been in the hands of the Raiders quarterback(s), bad things have happened for them. Can a back-up do any better? Well it’s hard to be worse. While I will say that this may be the single worst collection of pass catchers in the league (really, there are better receivers in the UFL), the play of Jamarcus Russell has been putrid. Completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing 2 touchdowns to 9 picks just won’t get it done. The lone bright spot in the pass game is the play of tight end Zach Miller who is a legit pro bowl level player. He is the main target to watch on third downs. The receivers do have speed, so the secondary must avoid complacency against the big play threat. With JJoe not completely healthy with his lingering foot issue, he especially may be a target deep. Morgan Trent and David Jones may see more time in this game to spell Joseph.
The Dline and blitzing linebackers should be able to harass Mr. Gradkowski all day, which should lead to poor throws and turnovers. The worst case scenario would play out like the first Browns game where the Bengals fail to score on early opportunities and the Raiders put together a drive or two and gain some confidence. Get this team down early and step on the throat. Michael Johnson and Frostee Rucker will get plenty of opportunities to build on their efforts last week.
Teams:
The most interesting part of this game will be to see if Bernard Scott continues to run back kicks if he’s also the primary back for the offense. He won the Steelers game with a terrific display of cut back ability, acceleration, and top end speed. Can you tell I love this guy? Wait until you see him catch passes, I’m telling you, he’s a poor man’s Chris Johnson. The Bengals can’t afford to lose him or Andre Caldwell, so maybe they entertain using Quan Cosby. The Bengals kick coverage has been okay this season, but the returners from Oakland are nothing special. Raider coverage has given up a touchdown, but hopefully won’t be kicking off much in this one.
Prediction:
While I think the Bengals will win this game, I won’t be surprised if they don’t cover the 9 point spread. I also won’t be surprised if for one game the Raiders find some semblance of a passing game and hit on a big play or two. This reminds me a bit of the first Cleveland game, but hopefully not the last Tampa game against Gradkowski. In that game, the offense failed to convert several key conversions in the second half leading to a worn out defense giving up the game winning points. This Raiders team; however, is not as good and this Bengals team is much better. The Bengals are sound in all phases of the game, and even if they have to grind, they will come out 8-2 with two more bad teams coming up.
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