NFL Preview-2010

***Editor's Note: While I'm showing my predictions vs. the current Vegas lines, I'm not encouraging you to put any action down. It is not my fault if you can't make your car payment because I didn't give the (insert team name here) enough respect.***

It's really tough to preview the records for the whole league with so much change from year to year. On the low end, you should figure 4 to 5 new playoff teams each season, with 6 or even 7 not being out of the norm.

For some reason, whether it's my contrarian nature, or perhaps a little bit of Bengal homer-ness, I think this season we might not see as much turnover as we have this decade. Of course, this is all baring injury. There's no way to have predicted what would happen two years ago to the Bengals and Patriots once their starting quarterbacks went down.

If everything stays as is, here's my prediction for division records (with Vegas predictions in parenthesis):

NFC-Total wins 127 (Vegas-127.5-Under)

NFC East-2 playoff teams
34 wins (34.5 wins-Under)
Dallas 11-5 (10 wins-Over)
NYG 9-7 (8.5 wins-Over)
Phi 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Was 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Dallas is a legit SB contender, I believe the Giants will be resurgent. Philly is in transition, and I don't like Washington's skill position players. Almost anything can happen in this division though.

NFC North-2 playoff teams
31 wins (32-Under)
Green Bay 11-5 (9.5-Over)
Minnesota 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Chicago 7-9 (8-Under)
Detroit 4-12 (5-Under)
I'm counting on #4 to be back with the Pack, but I still think Green Bay is the division winner. I'm not sold on Chicago and Detroit is still Detroit.

NFC South-1 playoff team
32 wins (32.5-Under)
New Orleans 11-5 (10.5-Over)
Atlanta 9-7 (9-Push)
Carolina 7-9 (7-Push)
Tampa 5-11 (6-Under)
Atlanta has a legit shot at a playoff spot, but I'll give to the Giants since I have a little more faith in their track record. If you asked me to pick one division where something crazy might happen, I'd probably pick this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans fell on their face this year, and Atlanta ended up better than expected. That said, for this, I'll stick with New Orleans.

NFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins (28.5-Over)
Seattle 9-7 (7.5-Over)
SF 9-7 (8.5-Over)
Arizona 8-8 (7.5-Over)
StL 4-12 (5-Under)
I think this division will be more competitive than most think, and I'm not ready to concede it to the 49ers. The Niners may very well end up with it, but I really think Seattle has one more playoff shot with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Arizona will be decent too, with the addition of Alan Faneca to a team that is going to want to run more now that Kurt Warner is gone. I predict you'll still have a 9 win division winner, but I'll take the Hawks to be that team.

AFC-Total Wins 129 (Vegas 130 wins-Under)

AFC East-2 playoff teams
32 wins-(32.5-Under)
NYJets 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Miami 9-7 (8.5-Over)
NE 9-7 (9.5-Under)
Buf 4-12 (5-Under)
This division is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I've heard a lot of talk about the Jets in the Superbowl, but this was a 9-7 team that barely made the playoffs and got hot at the right time. Good, yes. Great, no. Miami was bulldog tough last year but couldn't close out games. New England is always a playoff contender with Tom Brady, but I don't love the supporting cast this year. I don't feel great about taking the Pats out of the playoffs, but one of these three isn't making it, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if only one team makes it.

AFC North-2 playoff teams
33 wins-(32.5-Over)
Baltimore 10-6 (10-Push)
Cincinnati 10-6 (8-Over)
Pittsburgh 9-7 (9-Push)
Cleveland 4-12 (5.5-Under)
I have a hard time not giving the division to Baltimore with their advantage in schedule. The Bengals will be better than 8 wins, but could easily finish 9-7 instead of 10-6. I think it's going to take 10-6 to get them into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a sheik pick to replace the Bengals in the playoffs, and Vegas would agree with that. I just can't believe that without their starting QB for the first 4 games (where they could easily go 1-3), that they are going to get to 10 wins.

AFC South-1 playoff team
34 wins (34 wins-Push)
Indy 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Tenn 8-8 (8 wins-Push)
Jax 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Hou 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Indy is still the class of the division and will be in the hunt again for the #1 AFC seed. There could easily be a surprise team lurking in this division too, but I don't think it'll be the Texans. They've been a trendy pick as well, and are talking big, but they've never been good on the road and will miss offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. QB Matt Shaub also amazingly stayed healthy all of last year. The schedule is tough, and all that adds up to a sub .500 record for me. Tennessee could get back to 2008 form, and that would shake up the whole AFC playoff picture. Jacksonville could also improve dramatically. This team was in the AFC Championship game just 3 years ago.

AFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins-(31 wins-Under)
San Diego 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Denver 7-9 (7.5 wins-Under)
KC 6-10 (6.5 wins-Under)
Oakland 5-11 (6 wins-Under)
San Diego runs away with this putrid division again. Count me amongst the Denver haters (I'm still not over the Immaculate Deflection game). I don't believe this team was as good as their record indicated last season, and they once again traded away their best offensive player for the second straight year. Josh McDaniels is in for a rude awakening, one in which his team plays more like the end of '09 than the beginning. KC and Oakland should be better, and either could win two or three more than I'm predicting. They still won't sniff the playoffs.

*If you paid attention, Vegas is actually predicting 257.5 wins. There are only 256 possible wins.

You'll have to tune back in for playoff and Superbowl predictions. I actually find those type of predictions ridiculous, but it doesn't make much sense to predict all the records and not taking a stab at the playoffs.