Bengals fans, don't slit your wrists just yet......

You know it's been awhile since you've posted when the Reds were still in contention in the last post. But I digress.....

OK, the Bengals lost 34-3 and everyone is already killing them and thinking it's going to be a 2-14 season. But I, for one, saw much to be encouraged about after breaking down the first half. Granted, I went into it looking for the silver lining and watched it two days after they actually played, so I had no emotional attachment.

The Lions took the first drive right down the field with a couple long completions, including a back shoulder fade for Megatron over Leon Hall. Outside of Geno Atkins, who is now officially my second favorite Bengal, no pass rush was evident. Hall has had his issues with larger receivers, and has no shot if he isn't even going to bump at the line. That said, the coverage was softer than Rex Ryan's midsection so I'm not going to kill them for it. It is going to be better across the board.

The Bengals fumble their opening kick and it leads to 7 more quick Lion points. The biggest issue was not the rookie returner who won't be on this team, but the putrid blocking that let three Lions hit him simultaneously. Core special teamers Brandon Johnson, Brian Leonard, and another guy I'm blanking on right now (editors note: Dan Skuta), all missed blocks. This will not happen on the regular, and can be chalked up to the first kickoff return of the season. Again the Lions marched, and if Nate Burleson didn't make the circus catch for a touchdown over Hall, then they were just as lucky that Jahvid Best dropped what could've been a TD in front of Manny Lawson. Lawson looked a little lost, but he's only had a handful of practices. The linebackers will be okay, and have better speed than at anytime last year. I like Thomas Howard too, and they will have nice depth once Rivers returns.

OK, then the Bengals get the ball for the first time and Andy Dalton is picked on his first pro pass. I like Gruden's aggressiveness here. The plan was to double team In-Dom-A-Kin Soo, and Corey Williams just nailed the snap count to beat Nate Livings and hit Dalton as he threw. This was shades of Carson Palmer's last three years (ie-not entirely the QB's fault for those morons amongst us). Give these guys 5 seconds and good things will happen. Now I'm not a huge Livings fan, and believe Clint Boling will be the starter before year's end. But that said, Dalton needs to leave that ball to the outside if he can, but you can't really control it if you're hit. Even short, AJ can make a play if it's to his side.

The Bengals D did a nice job of shutting down the Lions next drive. Again, Atkins was very active and Reggie Nelson shows flashes of real playmaking ability that made him a first round pick. I think the secondary, barring injury, should be pretty good.

The Bengals did a really nice job establishing the run in the next drive, primarily behind Bobbie Williams and a quite impressive Andre Smith. These guys pushed Suh around and Cedric the Entertainer had some nice runs. But the old foe, third and short, reared it's ugly head. I thought Dalton actually made the right read in throwing to a ton of open green field turf, but FB Chris Pressley didn't make the adjustment. Gruden has said it was a messed up route by Coffman that kind of affected coverage, but either way, you throw to the open spot and Dalton did.

It's been a few days since I watched the game, so the rest of the drives kind of blend together but here are some random thoughts. AJ Green is impressive. He snatches the ball at the furthest point from the defender, and he's looking to run with it. He may have run 50 yards sideways on the one slant (which was a nice throw from AD), but holy shit did you see the block Jerome Simpson threw? I'm telling you right now, Chad, TJ, TO, Chris Henry RIP, not even Vern Coles comes back to throw that type of block!! And Simpson just missed a beauty of a TD of his own with that backshoulder fade perfectly thrown by AD.

Dalton made great reads and only missed on two throws, both of which he got hit on. The first by Williams, and the second by some guy wearing 75 who got Andre the Giant with a quick bullrush. Speaking of Andre, I thought he did really well. His footwork is a little sloppy, but he's just massive. He shut out Cliff Avril who was reportedly unblockable in early camp. Signs of life from a guy desperate to shed the "bust" label. He is a huge key to this season.

But back to Dalton, the biggest key. He spread the ball around, hitting just about everyone at least once. I really like the route concepts that Gruden is using. A lot of crossing route, pick plays, and combos that will lead to matchup problems. Yes, AD didn't average a lot, but he just missed two 20 yard TD's that would've helped that a ton. I didn't see any mental errors, and that's huge.

Now he did get dumped on his helmetless head when Bobbie Williams and Cook were abused by Suh. But Dalton got back up and went about his business. The kid's impressive.

So on the sour side, the pass defense was bad. But Carlos Dunlap didn't play, and you won't see these DB's play off that much the rest of the season. They will be okay. The OLB's are brand new, but Who Dey Rey looks pretty darn good at the Mike. Like Coach Zim said this week, this defense can be good. I agree. They did a nice job vs. the run and on the screens. It was the big play that has killed them the last couple of years, and it showed up again last Friday. That is my big concern. Stopping the run consistently and getting the pressure they did late in 2010=surprising success.

The offensive line is not as bad in pass protection as last year, but they aren't great. Outside Whitworth, who better freaking get to Hawaii this season as a ProBowler, the rest of the guys are clearly better at runblocking. But they can be really good at that. And there weren't many penalties, which is a great sign. Outside a phantom hold on a very well executed screen to Brian Leonard, they played clean. If they get back to bullying opponents, like they did in 2009, they will be a lot of fun to watch. Ceddy Ced just needs to learn not to try and do too much, like last year, and fumble at THE WORST TIMES EVER!!

And the skill guys played pretty fast too, especially for a first game together. This team will score some points once they start to click, they have too many weapons not too. As I've said several times, this is the most talented group in the division. Have fun trying to cover freaks like AJ, Simpson and Gresham, and then having the poor man's Wes Welker in Shipley who's becoming great at finding spaces in the seams. They can be scary good given time.

But they have to get TD's and not FG's, and they can't miss chip shot FG's like the Nuge did in Detroit. Redzone offense has been brutal for this team the last couple of years, but I really like the balance and the weapons, and the decision making of the QB. Hopefully they won't self-destruct as often as past years. (At least we won't have the two false starts by 85 a game anymore)!!

Now I'm not saying this team is going 10-6 with a rookie at QB, but I saw nothing in that first half that changes my opinion that this team can go 7-9 or even 8-8 if they clean up a few things. They don't have glaring weaknesses, just several little things that need some attention. Injuries can change everything in the NFL, but if they stay relatively healthy, I'm bullish on the Bungholes this year. Out with the old Delta Bravo's, and up with the new young tiger cubs.

And yeah, homerism acknowledged.

Buy, Sell, Trade? What Walt will be thinking about this month.

Here the Reds sit on July 6th, 43-44 and in 4th place, 4 games back of St. Louis. What should they do? They are in “contention” only because they play in arguably the worst division in baseball. More than half their wins have come against the NL Central, they are below .500 on the road, and nearly half their losses are of the one run variety. Their interleague record is abysmal. Clear signs of weaknesses. They have limped through a very difficult month and are smack in the middle of a stretch against the division leaders that could determine the rest of the season's course.

So make a trade you say? Get some help for SS, LF, CF, 3B! Get some pitchers! Maybe they should, but let's examine those ideas as they pertain to the bottom line, just like real GM's do.

SS is probably the most difficult position in baseball to fill in terms of offensive production, especially without huge sacrifices for defense (see Peralta, Johnny). Jose Reyes is the biggest name rumored on the market, and is in the midst of a career best year. He is a free agent at season’s end, and almost certainly will not sign with the Reds. (His contract will be somewhere around 7 years, $140+M, and no one not named Votto is worth that kind of investment for the Reds). He would be a rental, and he will not come cheaply on the trade market. However, he will be a Type A free agent, and would almost certainly decline arbitration that the Reds would offer. This would mean two draft picks as compensation from the team he signs with. That would help offset the cost of the blue chip prospects you’d have to give up. Still, you’d be on the hook for his remaining roughly $5.5M salary as well, unless the Mets did what the Blue Jays did for the Reds in the Rolen deal and eat salary for a better player package. The Reds have the prospects to make the deal if they want. The rest of the market is pretty underwhelming. JJ Hardy, Jason Bartlett (may not be available anymore), etc.

One intriguing name is prospect Zach Cozart, currently playing the heck out of SS in Louisville. He’d almost certainly be an upgrade offensively, but you’re dealing with an older manager and older GM that prefer veterans. Plus, you’d be starting Cozart’s arbitration clock early (we’ll talk again about this later). While the Reds have been willing to risk Super 2 status with players like Jay Bruce before, it’s a little harder to swallow for more of a “role player” type of guy. As we’re seeing now with the arbitration issues of Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, etc. eventually you have to pay guys when you commit to a youth movement.

As much as I’d love to see Reyes on this team, the move doesn’t make a ton of sense. I would argue that they really need another middle of the order hitter, although Reyes setting the table might make the current guys better. Still, the Mets sound less and less likely to deal him, so it’s probably moot. Cozart is a better option than Hardy or Bartlett, or anyone else for that matter.

Outfield production has been much maligned, and with reason. Even the great Jay Bruce went from a redhot May to a horrendous June. Add in Drew Stubbs 40% strikeout rate over the last month and a half, and the ups and downs of the Gomes/Heisey/Lewis triumvirate, and you have wildly inconsistent production. Still, is there really an upgrade on the market? Ryan Ludwick, really? I just don’t see it, and it pains me to say that. There is no Matt Holliday in this market. Maybe a Carlos Beltran, but are the Reds going to take that salary? Same with Alex Rios. No way this team is taking on big dollars, and to give up major prospects for these guys is throwing good money after bad. This team would have to be 4 games up to make that kind of move, and then why would they need to. Besides, unless you’re again going after a rental with Type A or B status, you’re going to have to pay upwards of $7M per for even a decent offensive player. All this while Heisey and Lewis still have controllable years ahead of them. That just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

Of course, there really aren’t any power hitting OF prospects just lighting up the minors either. Todd Frazier is a Mark DeRosa-type defensively (probably best at 3B) and he does have 15 bombs in AAA, but he’s only hitting around .270 and still hasn’t put everything together at the plate. I’d love to see him get more of a shot in September, but he doesn’t really warrant significant playing time yet (though I do love his 14 steals). Yonder Alonso has played quite a bit in LF, and has the makings of an OPS machine, but the Reds brass continue to keep him back in AAA. If he stays at 1B, he’ll be blocked by Votto until at least 2013, so he remains the Reds best trade chip. Perhaps Dave Sappelt warrants a look, but he’s not a power guy and isn’t stealing bases either. I think he’s a poor mans Chris Heisey. Jeremy Hermida is a journeyman, no better. I’d rather play Lewis.

I just don’t see a move here worth making. Heisey deserves more PT, as does Lewis. Gomes might be an interested guy to sell off if the Reds tank, but the other guys should be here for awhile.

3B probably isn’t even worth talking about. The Reds owe Rolen $4M this year and another $8M next. Even if he can’t hit for power anymore, they will still keep him and play him when/if he’s healthy. I’m not a huge Rolen fan, but it is what it is. I wish they still had Zach Stewart and Josh Reneike…..and Josh Hamilton….sigh.

Catcher is intriguing. The Reds maybe the deepest team in the league at a position they couldn’t find a decent one for a decade or more. Not only are they getting great production offensively from Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez, but they have arguably their best overall prospect in Devin Mesoraco at the position, as well as last year’s 1^st round pick Yasmani Grandal (who killed high A and is currently in AA). It may make me a bad fan, but the selling chips here almost make me hope the Reds fall out of contention. Ramon Hernandez could get you something valuable in a trade, especially if he earns Type A status.

The problem with keeping Hernandez is that he’s a free agent after the season, and the Reds will almost certainly be ready for Mesoraco for next season at the latest. That means that in order for the Reds to capitalize on Hernandez’s status (A or possibly B), they’d have to offer arbitration. I think that short of a wink and nod deal not to, he’d accept it for the certain significant raise on a one-year deal. That would be the worst position the Reds could be in. The flip side is that, if the Reds do deal Hernandez, and promote Mesoraco, they start his arbitration clock which could make him a Super 2 player. (That means he’s eligible for arbitration a full year sooner than he’d normally be, which can cost the club millions). Again, the Reds have shown a willingness to err on the side of youth for the right guy, and Mez looks like a bonafide star.

The Reds certainly don’t need to trade FOR a catcher, so this position is only of interest if they decide to sell.

Pitching has been the position hardest hit by injuries this season. The Reds have been rumored to be looking at Starting pitching, but I’m not sure which national writer has his mouth on the crack pipe. The Reds starting pitching has been okay, especially of late, and they still have a ton of young arms. Johnny Cueto is looking like an ace and the Reds have him locked up longterm on a very team friendly contract. Yes, Edinson Volquez has been all over the map, and yes, Bronson Arroyo is a mess physically. Yes, Bailey has been hurt and inconsistently effective. But, they’ve still gotten mostly good stuff out of Leake and Wood. And, there’s almost nothing on the trade market. AND, the best possible addition is sitting on THEIR AAA affiliate in Dontrelle Willis. Let’s be real. Is this team Erik Bedard away from winning the division? Jeremy Guthrie? Didn’t think so.

Now if they could land a big fish, then maybe. Especially one that isn’t coming with a $15-$20M/per price tag (sorry, don’t see King Felix coming here unless this team is going up to $90M+ payroll). Could you land a Brian Matusz or a Jake Arrieta? Or a Michael Pineda or even a Brandon Beachy? Maybe.

A significant longterm upgrade to the rotation would be worth top prospects; anything less than that is a wash at best. And remember that pitchers are generally more susceptible to injuries than position guys.

So maybe they could look to the bullpen. Coco Cordero is a free agent at season’s end (assuming the Reds choose the $1M buyout), and Masset and Chapman and even Ondrusek have been inconsistent. I still don’t see this team looking at a Heath Bell type player. I don’t think they will be in a big hurry to continue to have their highest paid player be the closer. Masset, Chapman and Ondrusek are all locked up longterm and I’m sure the preference would be to see one of those three take the closer’s role next year. (Start getting the Tums ready for when they start throwing balls). Bray is solid as the lefty go to guy, and some combination of LeFishSmith will be there too.

The prospect with the most buzz in the pen has to be Bradley Boxberger, who has recently been promoted to AAA. He could end up being a Craig Kimbrel, out of nowhere, closer option next year. His numbers are freakish. I fully expect to see him in September if not sooner.

Again, I don’t see a major upgrade available that’s worth the prospects and/or money unless this team suddenly gets hot.

So what does all that mean? I’m really not sure. I do think that this team, as it stands, is going to have to win some games before Reds brass can really decide what to do. Right now they are on the razor’s edge. Slide back much further and you almost have to deal at least a couple guys. Move up and maybe you warrant an addition. Where they are now, if you make a big move and the team still slides, it could blow up in Walt’s face.

I know the fanbase is going to start crying for moves, but the only ones worth making right now are internal ones. (Unless you can get King Felix). But talk to me in a week and things might have changed…..

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Reds aren't winning the close ones

16 one run losses, not good. Only Minnesota, Oakland, and Florida have more. Know what they have in common? They're all in last place.

While we're talking about odd stats, guess which team has given up the fewest runs in the NL Central. Bet you didn't guess it was the Pirates, and by a wide margin.

The Reds have scored the most in the division. Actually the most in the NL, and 3rd in all of baseball behind only the Red Sox and Yankees. Of course they've given up almost 50 more than the Yankees and 25 more than the Sox.

The Reds currently are 41-39. According to MLB.com, their expected record based on Runs Scored vs. Runs Against should be three games better. Good enough for 44 wins and first place in the division. While that's not the end of be all of analysis, it does somewhat confirm that this team should be better than it is.

They've had several bad, bad loses this year, that will almost certainly come back to bite them down the stretch. Unless they can get a lot better in the close ones. A lot better.

The speedy Yankees?

Yes, the Yankees are one of the top offensive teams in baseball and yes, they hit a ton of homeruns. But the most impressive stat, at least of late, is that the have 37 steals over the last month (tops in the bigs).

The Reds have not done a great job throwing out baserunners, so keep an eye on that aspect of the series.

Big thanks to Mark Neal

Thanks to Mark for all the mentions of the blog during the interview today during the Reds pregame show on 1410.

Maybe we'll even get a few new followers, who knows. If this is your first time here, welcome. Hopefully you'll find something interesting buried in the dung heap!!

JJ's back and taking aim at Crusty the Clown

Take it away JJ.....

Dusty Baker and His Wisdom of Doom

I think the Reds have played (and lost) enough games this season to be critical of them. We have a big enough pool of results to specifically point out how Dusty Baker is hindering the Reds’ ability to win games. So let’s have a contest and give out the first Annual Dusty Baker Managerial Awards:

• Let’s say you have the player that is leading the NL in HR’s and RBI’s, also with the 3^rd highest BA on the team while your reigning NL MVP is walking every at bat because the person behind him is a corpse and offers no protection, how long does it take you to bat the NL HR and RBI leader 4^th to protect your MVP? If your answer was 45 games then you win the Dusty Baker Managerial Award. (the results of the batting order change yielded 3 RBI’s and 1 HR for your NL HR and RBI leader while your reigning MVP hit his first HR in a month in the second game of the order change)

• Let’s say you have two SS’s, both aren’t hitting, one is approximately 55 years old , has no range and leads the team in errors while the other is 26 years old, has range, and is a defensive standout. How do you handle the starting SS position? If you said play them equally, and even bat the elderly SS 5^th on occasion you win the Dusty Baker Managerial Award.

• Let’s say your team has played two, long extra inning games on the road in the same week and your bullpen is a bit overworked. During close games in the midst of losing 10 of 12 games do you allow just called up rookie pitches to be sacrificed to rest your bullpen and knowingly lose another game or two so your bullpen will be rested for the post season or do you try to frickin’ win the games to stop the bleeding of the losing streak so you will be around for the post season, bullpen be damned because who cares if your bullpen is rested for the post season if you don’t even make it because you knowingly lost games earlier in the season to rest your bullpen? If you answer is knowingly sacrifice rookie pitchers and lose games to rest your bullpen for the post season even though you probably won’t make it because YOU ARE LOSING TOO MANY GAMES EARLY IN THE SEASON you win the Dusty Baker Managerial Award.

• Let’s say your leadoff hitter is the fastest man on the team, maybe in the league, but is in the midst of striking out 70 times in 140 at bats, never bunts (not sure h knows how), has power and has been known to hit in the clutch on occasion, would you continue to bat him leadoff without him putting balls into play 50% of the time and hitting with no one on base (where he can be clutch) or do you move him down the batting order to 5^th or 6^th to drive in runs and not hinder your team at the start of every game? If you answered keep him at leadoff you win the Dusty Baker Managerial Award.

• Let’s say you have a LF veteran who is batting under .200 but had a huge May (in 2010) and now swings a bat like a crazy person swatting at imaginary fairies and has no defensive skills. Would you give him the opportunity to hit himself out of his 1+ year funk while wasting away a decent veteran and a kid with potential who was once the Reds minor league player of the year or would you cut your losses with said LF and platoon the average veteran and young kid with potential to see if he could live up to it? If you answered let the veteran hit himself out of the prolonged slump you win the Dusty Baker Managerial Award.

If your answer on any of the questions above gave you a Dust Baker Managerial Award you’ve earned the right to sit in a major league dugout chewing on a toothpick while continuing to look mystified that your team is losing way too many games early in the season. If your answer on every question earned you a Dusty Baker Managerial Award you ARE Dusty Baker and you should quit wasting your time reading this blog and watch a Little League game to pick up some managerial tips

The REDS struggles....by the numbers

1. Pitching-
This team has scored more runs than the Boston Red Sox, and continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the game (9.8 UZR/150-and adjusted defensive metric that accounts for range AND fielding percentage). They were mediocre as a staff last year, which was good enough for the division, but relied heavily on young guys like Leake and Wood. This season, the staff finds itself in the bottom third of all staffs, still wihout an ace and now struggling just to find healthy bodies.

2. Injuries-
So much for pitching depth, at least 7 key guys have been or are hurting. This team has seen Homer Bailey on the DL twice, along with rotation mate Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman and Sam Lecure from the pen on the 15 day so far. Jared Burton and Matt Maloney are on the 60 day. Edinson Volquez, still a mess from TJ surgery, has forced Mike Leake back into the rotation despite his own struggles. Even Bronson Arroyo had to get checked out after a bad outing on the last road trip. The bullpen in particular is full of names most fans won't recognize due to injuries. This is hardly the staff the front office envisioned at season's beginning.

3. Starting Pitching-
Overall the numbers aren't too bad. 7k/9, 3bb/9, an xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) a full run below their 4.96 ERA. The biggest problem they are having is with the home run. 1.29 per 9 and a HR/FB% of 12.3, both 2nd worst in baseball. You'd expect some of that playing in GABP, but not 29th out of 30 teams. (They were at 10% in 2010). Also pitching the fourth fewest innings so far this season has put tremendous stress on what looked to be a decent bullpen.

4. Bullpen-
Injuries and overuse have made a decent pen put up below average numbers. Nothing as extreme as the starters, but they too are walking too many at 4.33/9 and you'd like to see more k's out of the pen than 7/9. There are several pens giving up more than the Reds .86 Homers/9, but we all know they've come at really bad times. That has led to an xFIP about a half a run higher than their 3.47 ERA. As bad as the Cards pen has been, they're about even with the Reds and that should've been a huge advantage for Cincy.

5. LF-
Much maligned for it's collective lack of production compared (unfairly) with last season, LF has produced 13 homers, 43 runs, 44 rbi and 8 sb, and when Heisey or Lewis play, above average defense. The problem is the .223 avg and .309 OBP, and the fact that you do trade off Gomes streaky power for better all around play with the other two. The bar was set unrealistically high due in large part to Gomes stellar May last year. He isn't as good as the 84 rbi he had last year, but neither are the other two. Still, you could live with a platoon if other positions are stepping up.

6. 3B-
Newsflash: Scott Rolen is old. He can still pick it, but he isn't the middle of the order force this team had in the first half last season. The position's .275 avg isn't terrible, but the .328 OBP isn't very good, and the 3hr and 28 rbi are miserable for a middle order position. This isn't nearly enough to get a pennant, and the Reds are locked in for another $6M for Rolen next year too, and you're lucky to get 120 games out of him.

7. SS-
The Reds knew if they started Paul Janish at SS, he was glove first and bat second (if at all). Still a positional OBP below .300 (.278) is dreadful, especially with no homers and little speed. Again, Janish's glove could play if the rest of the lineup is potent. This one isn't right now. This is probably the #1 position to look at for a trade upgrade. Hello Jose Reyes.

8. CF-
Drew Stubbs still has a lot of room for improvement, but is clearly an everyday major leaguer. You can certainly live with a .250 avg, but the walk rate needs to improve to get the OBP up above .333. He's always going to strikeout a ton (nearly 30% of AB's), but his combination of defense, power and speed will play. I still would have him down in the order rather than leading off, but that's Dusty being Dusty. Perhaps a Reyes trade would fix that.

9. RH hitting-
Votto's power production and rbi's are a little low, but he's still a premier offensive player. Jay Bruce is leading the NL in homers and leading this team with 40 rbi. He's been the only hot bat, and this team is still losing. RH hitting is one big culprit. Outside of Brandon Phillips and his 30 rbi and Stubbs' 23, there's no one on this team with 20! They once again are getting decent production from the Hernandez/Hannigan platoon, but this team needs either 3B or LF to be a run producing position from the Right side of the dish.

A Buckeye related Public Service Announcement from JJ

****Disclaimer****
The views expressed in this post by JJ do not necessarily reflect the views and position of this blog and it's creator. However, in the interest of fairness, and in the spirit of creating dialog, I'm posting JJ's anti-Buckeye post. (Who's blog is this anyway? JJ's been more inspired to write than I have been lately. I do feel a short retort coming on.) So without further delay, let the bashing begin.

How Ohio State Fans Made Me Dislike Ohio State Football

First let me apologize for lumping all Ohio State fans into the same category. I do realize that this is a very general accusation of all their fans but for the sake of my argument it is necessary, and mostly accurate. Mostly.

Blasphemy! Yep, what I’m about to write below is going to be blasphemy for those of you who believe in the God that is Ohio State football. I was born in Ohio, grew up in Ohio, and now I even live just outside of Columbus (even lived IN Columbus for 3 years after college). I grew up in the Cincinnati area going to UC football games. I went to Wright State University which has no football team, keeping my love of UC football alive. In fact, I’ve always lived in Ohio my whole life and I’m about to admit something that may get me run out of the state and forced to live in Nashville with the other OSU refugees; I don’t like OSU football.

Now I didn’t always feel this way. In fact, I used to really be into OSU football and get excited for their games so this is a new feeling. I have many friends that are either fans or went to the school. I’ve tailgated at OSU games and gone to games in person and had a great time. But I woke up recently with a change of heart. Pretty much like when you’re dating someone and you wake up one day, look at them, and think “why the hell am I committed to you? You don’t love me back, you’re getting uglier as you age, your family is insane and think you can walk on water, your dad is not an honest man, and your grandpa looks like the sickly love child of Orville Redenbacher and Eleanor Roosevelt and acts like Mr. Belding fawning all over Zack Morris.”

Blasphemy! Heretic! Devil!

Let me explain how I’ve come to this feeling about OSU football. It is all about you, the OSU fans. You’re the reason I don’t like OSU football anymore. You’re the reason that I take pleasure in an OSU loss or a new scandal. Frankly, I love to see the anguish on your faces, the stammering and scrambling for excuses, the Reverend Camping like end of the world predictions with each unnecessary loss, the contemplation of suicide when anything negative is said in the media (although not the Columbus media with their 365 day a week lovefest. Do I need a front sports page OSU football related story every day of every year? NO.)

The Tat Five scandal is the straw that broke the proverbial OSU Camel’s back for me. Not the fact that college football players didn’t care enough about their awards for winning football game and sold their stuff for money for tats, cars, whatever. I don’t really care about that. Players do that same thing, or worse, probably every day anyway (doesn’t make it right though). It wasn’t even Jim Tressell failing (forgetting?) to turn in all his emails about the selling of memorabilia to his bosses or the compliance office. Or even the ludicrous press conference where G. Gordon Screech Gee joked (hopefully) that he “hoped that he (Tressell aka Zack Morris) wouldn’t fire me”. Was that embarrassing for a leader to act that way? Sure. But did it bring out my dislike of OSU football? Close, but were still not there yet. Actually, I do want to take back something. I want to take back my comparison of Jim Tressell and Gordon Gee’s relationship to that of Mr. Belding and Zack Morris. That’s really unfair. It is more along the lines of the relationship of the football coach and the Dean in “Revenge of the Nerds”.

So if it is not the conduct of OSU’s players, coaches, and administrators on or off the field what is the problem? Why do I dislike OSU football now? How are the fans involved? Here it is; your unrealistic view of anything having to do with the OSU football team.

You constantly defend the program even when there are concrete facts showing the players, coaches, administrators have done wrong. You use ridiculous excuses like “everyone does it”, “players do worse”, “What about Auburn”, “What about USC”, “The media is treating us unfair”, and “there is an agenda against OSU”. You also have unrealistic expectations of winning a National Championship every year. You are NOT going to win or challenge for a national championship every year. That is just real life, which I understand you have trouble understanding. Not even when super scandals where players are being given things by agents (Miami, USC) did those schools win a NC every year. They were good for a period of time but I don’t seem to remember back to back to back to back to back to back to back National Championships for those teams.

This latest scandal has undisputable evidence of players breaking NCAA rules, the coach knowing about it, hiding it, lying to the NCAA and OSU about knowing about the rule breaking. There is no defense for this for a rational person. Your beloved players and coaches made mistakes. It is time to accept that fact there will be penalties from the NCAA and long term tarnishing of the image of OSU and Jim Tressell. In the court of public opinion OSU and JT are going to be guilty at every whisper of wrong doing in the immediate future. This may be slightly unfair but this is the reality of the situation OSU has brought upon itself. The media didn’t do this. The blood is on the hands of OSU players and coaches who broke the rules. If an SEC school did this the OSU fans would be leading the charge to have all rule breakers publicly drawn and quartered. Look deep inside your heart; you know this to be true.

Is it too much to say “we screwed up and we deserve what’s coming to us” instead of “ESPN has an agenda to ruin us” you know, because OSU is a super power in football that garners big ratings so a company that lives by ratings would want to completely destroy a program so they don’t have to cover them anymore and lose ratings? Does that make sense to you? Quit playing with that darn buckeye necklace and pay attention to what I’m writing here! If OSU wasn’t such a successful program with a coach dedicated to truth, justice, and the American way this wouldn’t be as big of a story. If you’re a success in life when you do wrong it is going to be a bigger story with the public. Take a look at OJ Simpson; people get murdered all the time but because OJ was a successful athlete and actor it was a national story up to, through, and after the trial. If you don’t like the media and public scrutiny you can do two things:

1. Do don’t anything wrong
2. Start losing games because no one cares about losers (right Michigan?)

There is great documentary on HBO right now called “Too Big to Fail”. You OSU fans may want to check it out.

You know, it is okay to have a rebuilding year every now and again and take 2-3 losses. No, you shouldn’t react and want to fire your coach who has had a winning season every year he has coached there, 1 NC, 2 Runner Ups, and has beaten Michigan approximately 99 times (fact check) in a row. I don’t care that most of the Big Ten would be lucky to make a dent in the MAC, you’re still not going to go undefeated every stinkin’ year. These are kids/young men playing a game. They will make mistakes. Highly recruited players will be busts. People will get hurt. It happens in real life (I know you guys hate the thought of reality but lets try to grasp that concept). Go into a season for once hoping for the best but understanding that you may have a whole new offense or defense starting and that you probably won’t be in the NC game. Just because you have 5 star recruits or guys that were backups and got to practice against the starters the previous season doesn’t mean they will step right in and become All Americans. Most kids, like a pot of chili, need time to season before becoming good.

My last point about how OSU fans made me dislike OSU football deals with your supposed allegiance to “real” OSU players. You know, the real Buckeyes like Terrell Pryor and the tat five. Not the fake Buckeyes like Kirk Herbstreit, Ray Small, Maurice Clarett, or anyone else that has publicly accused OSU of rule breaking activities or has unjustly criticized the saintly head coach or players. I definitely feel that Terrell Pryor is a real Buckeye and a great ambassador for the team. He is the greatest dual threat QB since Tecmo Super Bowl’s QB Eagles (aka Randal Cunningham). He exhibits great leadership by displaying support for money launderer and dog executioner/federal felon Michael Vick both on his eye black and post game interviews with the national TV media. Or the way that he breaks NCAA rules by selling memorabilia that he has earned for victories with his teammates where they have spent countless hours practicing, watching film, and battling on Saturdays to achieve. Yep, that is a real Buckeye deserving of praise other than that fake Buckeye Kirk Herbstreit.

What’s that Herbstreit guy ever done anyway? He never beat an SEC school in a BCS bowl game. How many times did he beat Michigan during his 4 years at OSU? Never forget that he grew up in Ohio and publicly supports all Ohio amateur and pro teams. He has the audacity to speak negatively about OSU’s actual wrong doings during his job in media as a TV commentator on ESPN (you know the massive media outlet that’s mission statement is the destruction of OSU’s football team). How dare he think his school should act better by not breaking the rules and not having the coach report it when they find out? HOW DARE YOU SIR! As soon as he was hired at ESPN it was evident that he severed his ties to OSU and started immediately talking bad about them. He has no respect for his alma mater. If only he would show up on camera with his entire family decked out in OSU gear at some point in his career. Maybe that would help his image with OSU fans. Nope, well then, let’s constantly harass him and his family to the point they need to move from Columbus to Nashville. That’ll show that fake Buckeye. Didn’t real Buckeye Chris Spielman say negative things recently about this scandal? Where does he live these days? Well, I guess it is okay for him since he has only said the bad thing once and doesn’t work for ESPN full time. Who the hell runs their ex-players and public supporters of the team out of town? Oh yeah, OSU “fans”.

The bottom line with my attitude change is that the fans make enjoying OSU football impossible. From ridiculous performance expectations, to unfair treatment of “fake” Buckeyes, to the defense of breaking rules it has turned me away from being a fan. I wish the team the best but I will always take great pleasure now in the pain of the fans of Buckeye nation. Your whining, crying, and thoughts of suicide for all the injustices done to OSU provides greater entertainment to me now more than any football win. With each allegation, loss, or negativity uttered toward OSU I look forward to reading each comment or hearing each defense from my friends so I can laugh like a madman looking at his own reflection. Listen OSU fans, I get that your love for your school and football team. Nothing wrong with that. Your inability to live in reality and accept that your team can screw up or not win a National Championship or even that there is no media conspiracy to ruin your team are the problems. Also the Bataan Death March from the stadium, bars, or TV screens after a loss is a bit on the dramatic side. Get over it, were not talking life or death here. Join the real world and things won’t seem so bad.

So thank you Buckeye fans, you’ve now turned someone away from liking your team. I’m probably not the only one. So consider me a fake Buckeye fan from now on. Now, I’ve gotta go pack my bags. I’m moving to Nashville.

***Editor's Note***
Yes, Buckeye fans can be obnoxious. Fans in general tend to be, especially for larger fan bases of highly successful teams. That goes for any sport, college or pro. Fans typically lack any reasonable sense of objectivity, especially when your team is "under attack".

That said, much of what JJ says is fair criticism. The whole idea of "fake" or "real" Buckeyes is nuts. The idea that somehow a multi-million dollar business, where the key employees are unpaid, and is supported by an entire community (the good and the bad), is somehow not going to have shady dealings going on around it is naive. We all know it's going on. That doesn't excuse it.

I've already done one post on TatGate, and I'm not going to rehash my position on that. What I will say is that this can't be the only shady thing that's gone down under JT's regime. We (Buckeye fans) all know that the Clarrett situation could've blown up and resulted in sanctions, but didn't. We all know that the "squeaky clean" image of JT rings a bit hollow. The "Aw Shucks" act is a little tired. Gordon Gee and the AD should be ashamed of the way they've handled themselves. But all of this, and probably more, is self-inflicted. We should acknowledge that.

The criticism of ESPN is actually kind funny to me. They were late to the party. It was Yahoo that broke the story. ESPN only jumped on when it benefited them to do so. As JJ said, tearing OSU down would kill game ratings. Why would they want that, until it became the big story?

That said, I don't care for or about Herbie. The problem with that situation is that you can't have it both ways. You can't be a homer, and not be labeled a homer. I think he did the best job he could, but there were many times that it seemed his criticisms were leveled more to appease the national public opinion than anything. He couldn't be seen to be defending the program, so I think that made the criticism harder to take for Buckeye nation. That does not in any way justify the personal attacks on he or his family. That kind of crap ass behavior is never acceptable. It's sports at the end of the day, and there's no reason to run a solid citizen out of town (although there were some other rumors about taxes and a house burning down not to mention he'd run out of tail to chase...to be fair, none of us know the whole story).

The one part of this that I take a little issue with is the expectations on the field. I think I know where JJ was going with this, and I'll acknowledge that there's a difference between having a National Championship as the goal every season and actually thinking you're going to WIN a National Championship every season. I see nothing, and I mean nothing, wrong with having a NC as the goal every season. It's what the Pittsburgh Steelers do in the NFL. They may not get to the Super Bowl every year, but they think they CAN, and prepare with that goal in mind.

The reality is that OSU is the biggest and most successful program in the North. It's the only one that perennially competes with the South, Texas and the West Coast. Yes, the Big Ten* isn't the deepest conference, and without a championship game, the string of Big Ten* Championships* is like holding the Intercontinental Belt in the old WWF. Still, they've been to 3 NC games since 2002, and are always going to be one of the top 3 choices of the BCS selection committee because of the way the fan base travels and the television ratings they draw. Hating on that is like me hating on the Steelers. It's just jealousy.

Now I acknowledge that there are those amongst us that may actually irrationally think we're going to win it every year. There may be those amongst us that don't think JT did it, or did anything wrong by doing it. There may be those that actually believe Herbie is the anti-Christ and deserves to have his house burned down. I can't and won't defend any of them.

But I will also say that there have been plenty in Buckeye nation to criticize TP and JT for their work on the field, who've done a 180 regarding the off-field issues. Like Herbie, you can't have it both ways.......

RIP Randy Macho Man Savage

It sucks when the guys you watched growing up get older and start dying off. It makes you nostalgic for a time long gone, and it reminds you just how long ago that was. And that we are not as bulletproof as we thought we were, back when we were jumping off our couch's armrest, pretending it was the top rope.

As I've done a few times in past, I turn over the reigns to a guest. In this case, this crummy little blog has a visit from a blogging celebrity. A man who's been one of only a handful Paul "Doc" Daugherty's guest fill-in's on his cincinnati.com blog and member of the critically acclaimed band, The Rebel Set. The one and only Jason Johantges. We are not worthy.....take it away JJ:

Let’s have a moment of silence for, and then a 21 Slim Jim snap salute, for
Randy “Macho Man” Savage. He died today in a car wreck caused by a heart attack.

Spending much of my formative years in the 80’s the WWF (I will not accept WWE as
the name, way to bend over for a bunch of tree huggers) was a big part of my Saturdays.
From the morning Hulk Hogan Rock n Wrestling Express to the late morning wrestling
show, to the occasional Saturday night late night special events, I watched a bunch
of wrestling on my Saturdays. Please God, if the rapture doesn’t come this weekend,
make Rebecca Black create a sequel to her “hit” Friday and sing a song about Saturday
dedicated to the WWF of the golden ages. I don’t ask for much.

I was lucky to enjoy the golden age of pro wrestling with super stars like Hulk Hogan,
Andre the Giant, George “The Animal” Steele, Ricky “The Dragon” Steamboat, the
Ultimate Warrior, and of course Macho Man. How much fun was it to practice those
signature moves of the stars on your siblings and friends? Good times! I also remember
the line of toys that were made out of the hardest, stiffest rubber known to man.
Which also weighed about 25 pounds per figure so when you inevitably threw one at
your sister’s head you did significant cranial damage. More reasons to love the 80’s;
dangerous and somewhat toxic toys!

I did turn away from the WWF as I got into Jr. High and High school as sports, video
games, hair metal, and girls came calling. Because lets face it, wrestling kind of got
creepy as you realized you’re too old to roll around on the floor with other boys
mimicking the holds of the WWF but the idea of doing it with girls caused a strange
tingling in your nether regions. Still, the Macho Man was an icon of my youth and a
strong reminder of the many Saturdays I spent jumping off furniture as if it was the top
turnbuckle of a ring. While he wasn’t my favorite wrestler he sure played a part in about
every memorable feud in their heyday.

He also introduced fans to the idea of female managers with his long time partner Miss
Elizabeth. Sadly, she died years ago under the suspicion of drug use. Which was another
sad byproduct of the WWF; rampant illegal drug use. The WWE has chewed up and
spit out many people. People who have destroyed their body and mind through steroids,
cocaine, and painkillers. From the stories I’ve heard about the WWF in the mid 80’s
their locker rooms would have made put the ’86 Mets to shame. It is no surprise that like
many football greats of the 70’s and 80’s the WWF stars of the same timeframe are dying
much too early because of the common practice of drug use.

Anyway, this is supposed to be a happy reminder of an icon of my youth. As mentioned
above I attribute many good times spent on Saturdays enjoying wrestling related
entertainment. For that, I will always have a spot in my heart for the WWF stars of
the ‘80’s. Macho Man, I hope you find peace and plenty of Slim Jim’s in the afterlife
Macho Man. Although after this weekend we may be able to meet in person you know,
pending the rapture and end of days of course.

OH YEAH!

The one that got away......

Jim Bowden sucks. In his decade long run as General Manager of the Cincinnati Reds, Bowden's teams managed only 2 division titles (one in strike shortened 1994), had a slew of trades that generally did not work in the Reds favor (Ken Griffey Jr's injuries aside), and instituted a scorched earth policy in the minor league system. So it's no surprise that he and his scouting department would've missed on one of the most underrated players in all of Major League baseball who was born, raised, and became a terrific high school and collegiate ballplayer in his own backyard.

Kevin Youkilis is one of my favorite big league players, and one of the least appreciated in all of baseball. Since 2006, his first full-time, Youkilis is easily one of the top 20 players in all of baseball by any measure you want to look at. Tabbed by Oakland GM Billy Beane as "the Greek God of Walks" as a minor leaguer, Youk is one of the toughest outs in all of baseball and perennially is amongst league leaders in pitches seen per at bat. The impact that has on opposing pitchers is one that elevates the play of everyone on his team. Whether that's during a single game, or over the course of a series, Youkilis is the heart and soul of one of the best offenses in the game and contributes whether he's swinging well or not.

Born and raised in Cincinnati, Youkilis put up huge numbers at Sycamore High School and again at the University of Cincinnati. He was a two time 2nd team All-American at UC, and still holds multiple offensive records. He even went to the Cape Cod League between his Junior and Senior years at UC, where they use wood bats, and finished amongst league leaders in offense as well. Still, he was not well regarded by the big league scouting community. Why? Well, he didn't look the part. Pudgy, unathletic-looking, unorthadox; he just didn't look like a pro. And at that time, 2000-2001, most scouting staffs and organizations were too caught up appearances and weren't focused on production. Youk would be drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round in 2001, but would've almost certainly been a 1st or 2nd round pick today.

All Youkilis has done since is be one of the best in all of baseball. He's played above average defense at both 3B and 1B, moving wherever the team needed him most. He's added 25+ home run power to his +.400 On Base ability. He's an underrated base runner despite below average speed. And his leadership and desire to win would make his boyhood hero Pete Rose proud. Want proof? How about the well publicized dugout fight between Youkilis and Manny Ramirez in 2008? When asked about the fight the following year, after Manny was traded away to L.A., Youkilis said: "We have two different approaches to the game. Winning and losing isn’t life and death to Manny." Given the choice, I'd rather have Youkilis too. He stepped right into Manny's cleanup role and didn't skip a beat. He's even played through injuries the last two years, and only shut it down in 2010 because he didn't have a choice. He's a gamer.

And he's produced for relatively little cost, only adding to his value. From 2006-2008, his first 3 full seasons, Youk cost a combined $4M. For '09 and '10 he made a combined $15M, and 2011 will be his first making more than $10M annually. He signed a 4yr $41M contract in 2009, that includes a $13M club option for 2013. For a guy who's Wins Above Replacement value (thanks fangraphs.com) has averaged nearly 4.5, and considering each WAR is worth roughly $4.5M each on the open market, he should be getting nearly $19M per year! That's very good value for GM Theo Epstein and the BoSox.

Needless to say, I'd love to have seen Kevin Youkilis in a Reds uniform, at 3B, instead of an aging and overpaid Scott Rolen. The Reds desperately need a legitimate right handed bat behind MVP 1B Joey Votto, and a lineup featuring 2B Brandon Phillips, Votto, and Youkilis hitting 2,3,4 would be something to behold. But alas, it's a pipe dream. The BoSox would never trade Youk and the window to have drafted him is a decade in the rear view mirror. Still, it's fun to imagine. If only the Reds had had a progressive GM in 2001 instead of a guy who wore leather pants and thought the best way to build a team was through trades instead of the draft.

Hopefully the injuries don't derail what looks to be a very promising career for Youkilis, the bedrock for one of the few clubs that perennially has a shot at a World Series title. And hopefully the Reds commitment to drafting and developing quality prospects since dumping Bowden will assure that they won't miss another diamond in the rough in their own community.....

Bengals Draft Impressions

The Bengals did very well in the 2011 draft. They replaced their QB, and they replaced a Hall of Fame caliber Wide Receiver with another. They added a speed rushing Line Backer, and upgraded the interior Offensive Line with a player that should have gone a round higher. They added one of the biggest Safeties in this draft, and added to their depth at Receiver, Corner and Running Back to finish off. They had a very good draft as I said, but this is not the most impressive part.

Maybe people can change, in some respects anyway. Giving Mike Brown even a scrap of credit is a major Bengal fan faux pas, but I have to give it when due. Not one guy taken in this draft has a character issue in their background. No Odell Thurman's, or Chris Henry's, or Jason Shirley's, or anyone else. In fact, these guys all seem like really quality young men. GOOD CHARACTER GUYS! Who would've thought?

And the other thing that really, really jumped out at me about this draft is that Marvin Lewis already has a ton of trust in Jay Gruden and James Urban, new Offensive Coordinator and Receivers Coach respectively. Jay loves AJ Green and Andy Dalton, and had them #1 respectively by their positions (AJ was #1 overall). But it's one thing to let your new coordinator evaluate, and it's quite another to act on those evaluations. Especially considering the turmoil this franchise and coaching staff have faced the last year or two. I'm blown away by what I just saw.

Marvin trusts Gruden so much that AJ Green and Andy Dalton will be the starters week 1. Pretty incredible considering he's only had Gruden on staff a matter of months. Again, you have to give Marvin some credit here.

I really like this draft, and it's continues a string of very good drafts since the 2005 debacle. If Dontay Moch and Robert Sands can contribute next year, I love this draft. And I am very, very impressed by what Jay Gruden and Urban bring to this team. There is a new energy. It is clear that the organization is turning the page not only on Carson and Chad, but on the whole Bratkowski era.

Much has stayed the same, but much is different. It looks like for the better.

So your team needs a QB?

I've really warmed up to Mallet. I'd forgotten how well he played in the bowl game vs. Ohio State. If Joe Adams could catch, they probably beat the Buckeyes. He has the biggest arm in the draft, and can make all the throws with accuracy, but that's not the best part. He comes from a pro-style offense and has the most experience of any draftable QB's with pre-snap responsibilities. Audibles, hots, and even protections were all his to call at the line. Plus, Arkansas ran a ton of play action. I thought he was easily rattled by pressure, but am not sure that's entirely fair. There were a lot of plays where he evaded the initial rush and made fantastic throws downfield. On one play, he evaded an unblocked blitzer, made half a step up the field and threw it 50 yards in the air to a receiver in stride. No one else in this draft can do that. Hell, 90% of the QB's in the NFL can't do that. He's not perfect. I question his conditioning, and I wonder what he's going to be like with a multi-million dollar contract in the bank off the field, but you can tell the kid loves the game and can absolutely play it. He'd be the #1 QB on my draft board. #2 is Christian Ponder. He may not have the ceiling of Newton or Gabbert, and there are significant medical issues in his past, but he's more NFL ready than either of the other guys. He comes from a pro-style offense, is comfortable with play-action, and is still a good enough athlete to do all the boots and rollouts required in a true West Coast system. He seems to be smart, mature, and well-rounded off the field, much cleaner than Mallet. That said, he doesn't have near the arm talent, nowhere near. Still, he has a better arm than Dalton and has better accuracy than Locker. He may never be a Pro-Bowler, but he'll be around the league a long time if he wants to be. If he's in the right system, with enough around him, I think this is a franchise QB. If you know your team isn't going to be good anytime soon, you have a new coach, and you can be patient, then you can feel better about taking Newton or Gabbert. But both come from schemes very different from the NFL, and neither really faced pressure consistently like they will face in league. Mallet and Ponder have, and I think the transition will be much, much smoother. There's always risk, but my money's on those two guys to be franchise QB's.

Dusty Baker=Over Rated (bump,bump, bump bump bump)

Crusty's best seasons have an almost direct correlation to
the MVP award.

18yrs as a manager, record slightly over .500, 1 pennant (2002-Bonds
MVP, SF was the Wild Card), 4 division titles (1997-Bonds 5th,
2000-Jeff Kent MVP Bonds 2nd, 2003-Sosa 8th, 2010-Votto MVP).

He was in SF from 1993-2002 (Barry Bonds came to SF in 1993) and his
record was .540

He was in CHI from 2003-2006 (in fairness, he missed Sosa's prime by a
couple of years, but had Prior and Wood before their injuries), his
record was .497

He's been in Cincy since 2008 and his record is .504

Marginal performance buoyed by 4 MVP's, including the most dominant
player in the history of the game in Bonds, with whom he managed 1
division title and 1 pennant. They melted down in that WS and his
Cubs did again against the Marlins in the famous Steve Bartman series.

The prosecution rests.