(The Bengals have historically matched up well with the Ravens with #9 at the helm. The Cats pretty much thumped the birds coming out of the bye, giving up only a late TD in a 17-7 win. The Bengals would be 6-2 going into Steeler week #2).
Bengals v Ravens 2
I’m pretty upset that the Bengals are getting no respect in this game. The Ravens are currently favored by 3 in a game in Cincinnati against a team that outside of two plays waxed them less than a month ago. The Bengals offense finally did what I said they were on the verge of for the last month and exploded on someone. They blasted the Bears going into the bye and have to be as confident as they’ve been in years going into this game. The Ravens meanwhile, followed up the Bengals loss with another tough loss at Minnesota before their bye week. They came off the bye with an extra week to prepare, and beat a Denver team that was overdue for a bad game as any team is with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Again, a classic example of overreaction to what you have done for me lately. Win, lose, or tie, this game should be at worst a pick ‘em considering the home team is generally given a 3 point boost by the betting line. Like Rodney Dangerfield said, no respect at all.
When the Ravens have the ball:
No matter haw many yards Joe Flacco threw for against Minnesota, this offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He leads the team in just about every category and showed the Bengals what he can do if you don’t get him on the ground in the last meeting. The Bengals defense must contain Rice, especially running the ball on first down and on screens on all downs.
The Ravens got Jared Gaither back at left tackle last week, and the line did a really nice job especially in pass protection. Michael Oher and the right guard did have some problems early as Oher was adjusting back to that spot. The Ravens like to run at the middle of the defense, so it’s key that Domata Peko, Tank, and Pat Simms step up to the challenge. The runs that worry me a little more are to the edges, especially off the left tackle side. Pursuit must be good to stretch those runs for minimal gains. In short yardage situations, the Ravens did a lot of quick count sneaks by Flacco. The Bengals must be prepared for the quick count.
The Ravens pass offense, as much as they’ve been hyped for throwing deep, is centered on Ray Rice and Todd Heap. They do a lot of quick, short throws, making the defense tackle and not allow yards after contact. Denver did not do a good job of sure tackling last week. These short throws minimize the effectiveness of the pass rush, but don’t help much in longer down and distance. Keep the Ravens in third and longs and they are trouble.
Derrick Mason was one of the #1 receivers neutralized by the Bengals constant attention this season. No defense has been better at taking away the primary target, but expect the Ravens to try to get the ball to Mason anyhow. OC Cam Cameron apologized after the first Bengal game for not getting Mason the ball enough. Please Cam, force the ball into double coverage, the Bengals have plenty of ballhawks to take it away.
This Ravens offense should do more than they did against the Bengals the first game, and I expect more than 14 points, but I don’t see an offense as good as the Texans offense that really punished the Bengals for poor tackling a few weeks ago. The key is containing Rice, and making them be methodical. Make the complimentary receivers beat you.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Ravens came out of their bye week blitzing like crazy against the Broncos and shut down a pretty hot offense. After looking at that game again, I put almost as much of the blame for that on Kyle Orton as I give credit to Baltimore. Baltimore took away the run, and they will absolutely look to do that to a Bengal team that pounded them on the ground last game. I expect a lot of 8 in the box and a lot of blitzing, but Carson Palmer is not Kyle Orton. He’s done a really nice job of checks at the line, getting the Bengals into plays that take advantage of the number of defenders in the box. It’s almost like clockwork. If there are 8 in the box, he will throw, if there are 7, they run. Palmer knows how to handle the blitz, so it will be up to the line and especially the backs to give him a few seconds to hit the right receivers.
Blitzing is a risk/reward proposition. If you get penetration, you can disrupt a play or create a negative play for the offense. If you miss, or get it picked up, you expose the defenders behind the blitz. In this case, the secondary of the Ravens still isn’t any good outside of Ed Reed. Chad Eight-five is going to get double team attention, but the other guys have started to show signs of what they can do if they hold on to the ball. Blitzing also opens you up to screen passes and draws that invite the rushers up field. The key to effective screens against the Ravens is doing them in unexpected situations. You can’t run a screen on 2nd and 10, this team is too good. Ray Lewis and especially Reed are experts at seeing tendencies and knowing situational football. There are plays to be made against this defense, it’s all about patience and execution.
The run game will not get going early, but it’s important to keep at it. The Bengals will need it in the second half. DE/NT Haloti Gnata is not 100% with an ankle injury, so it’s important to hit an already depleted line in the mouth. This will be key in short yardage and in the red zone. Red zone efficiency is what the Bears game was all about, and the Bengals are starting to develop quite a repertoire of plays there. I would like them to continue with the three wide look there because it puts the emphasis on the Ravens to cover a superior receiving corps.
My main concern in the passing game, well for this offense in general, is the over-reliance on Chad. He’s been targeted almost twice as much as the next highest receiver (Caldwell), and defenses know it. The pick six against Green Bay and the pick six against Baltimore were both thrown at Chad. Coles and Henry, especially, need to continue to step up as the have in the last two games. If everyone is contributing, this is a very tough offense to defend.
There will be sacks in this game; it’ll be a matter of not compounding them with negative plays or penalties. Turnovers kill you in evenly matched divisional games like this, so ball carriers especially must protect the ball.
Teams:
Lardarius Webb turned the tide of a very ugly Broncos game with a return touchdown and a special teams play could very well decide this one too. Bengals kick and coverage teams must be up to the task. If the Bengals could get a decent return or two, it could really spark this team. It’s better to get touchdowns than field goals, but you have to get points when you can against the Ravens. Make your kicks.
Prediction:
In terms of making the playoffs, the Ravens need this game more than the Bengals. They still have two dates with Pittsburgh and a game against Indy on the schedule, while the Bengals schedule is markedly easier. The Bengals could lose this game and next week’s game at Pittsburgh and still end up 10-6 with a wildcard. If they want the division; however, I think this game is very important to win. (There’s a pretty good chance the AFC North is going to get 3 teams in the playoffs by the way).
The Bengals have always been a good match for the Ravens as long as Palmer has been healthy. They will not be afraid of the Ravens and are coming off their best offensive performance in recent memory. They have an extra week to prepare and watched closely how the Ravens game planned the Broncos.
The defense won’t hold the Ravens offense down quite like it did the last time around, but they should hold when it matters most. If the offense can overcome the early rust I expect to see without creating a hole with turnovers, I think they get it going in the second half. I think the Bengals win this one, even though it may be ugly, and will certainly blow one they should win later in the season to make up for it.
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