Mark had an interesting discussion going yesterday on his show on ESPN 1410 that I thought we'd continue today about how much better the AL is than the NL this season. It's pretty much a no-brainer that the AL is the better league, but I went hunting for some statistical backup for the argument.
(By the way, the AL won 134 games this year to the NL's 118, a slight improvement over last year. The AL has dominated interleague play since 2004 when it was 205 to 204 respectively. The NL has won the series only 4 times in 14 years and has not since 2003. The NL has also not won an All-Star game in the interleague era, tying once in 2002).
Payroll.
One big reason for dominance. 6 of the top 10 teams in payroll are AL teams, including the two Superteams in the bigs, the Yanks and Red Sox. (The Yankees payroll is 40% higher than the #3 Cubs). The top NL team, the Cubs (#3 overall), are an absolute mess and are probably the most disappointing team in baseball this year. The #4 team, the Phillies are probably still the best team in the NL but have been hit hard by injuries this season. The #5 team, the Mets, have arguably the worst GM in baseball in Omar Minaya and perennially underachieve considering their payroll. Both these last teams could still make the playoffs, but are currently trailing the Braves (#15 overall payroll). 5 of the next 6 (top 11 overall) payrolls belong to AL teams. The Tigers (#6), White Sox (#7), and the Twins (#11) are in a dogfight for the AL Central division, while all 3 division leaders in the NL are in the bottom half of the payroll spectrum. The Reds (#19) and especially the Padres (#29) have to be the biggest surprises in the league. All in all, it's obviously not just about payroll, but how you use it. The Rays are #21 in payroll, below the Royals and are in contention because they draft and develop better. Payroll doesn't guarantee wins, but it doesn't hurt. I think the GM's and development staffs in the American league are doing the better job as a whole.
Position Players
The best offenses are in the AL and I don't think that's debatable. Using Fangraphs.com's "Values" metric (a combination of hitting and fielding resulting in the Wins Above Replacement stat), 6 of the top 7 most valuable positional teams are in the AL. The Cincinnati Reds are the only team in that group, at #4. (We as Reds fans will be the first to admit that it's unlikely they finish as the NL's top offensive club). Take out fielding, and only two of the top 8 hitting teams are in the NL (the #3 Brewers and the #7 Reds). This isn't just due to the DH position, lineups are just better. Aside from maybe the Brewers, take one superstar player out of the Red's, Cardinal's, or especially the Padres' lineup, and they are average to extremely poor. Take one star out of the Yankees' or Red Sox lineups and they are still potent. Even the Twins, Tigers, Rays, and Rangers are still quality offenses without one star, although they too would feel a hit over time. Using any metrics you want, the top offensive clubs in the AL are better than their NL counterparts, and the middle of the pack AL offenses run circles around the average NL teams.
Pitching
We're going to see looking at the statistics at face value that the NL is as good or better than the AL in pitching. Maybe that's true, but we have to acknowledge that the offenses in the AL are markedly better AND have an above average hitter in place of the pitcher's spot. That said:
6 of the top 10 WAR pitching staffs are in the NL, although the #1 team is the Chicago White Sox. Now that's combined starting AND relief pitching. If we just talk starting pitching, 6 of the top 10 rotations are AL teams, including #1 Boston and #2 Chicago. Bullpen values are split right down the middle. Whole Staff and separate Starting and Relief pitching WHIP is basically even in the top 10's, so there really isn't enough of difference to declare a winner. At best, the NL staff's maybe ever so slightly better than the AL. The difference doesn't make up for the difference in offensive capabilities.
Overall, you can see why guys like Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay were all about getting over to the NL as quickly as they could. Conversely, guys like Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt (reportedly) fight it tooth and nail. Those AL lineups are just better top to bottom.
Doc Hallady is an interesting example:
Of his 7 loses this season, 3 have come to AL teams in 4 interleague starts. He gave up 7 runs vs. Boston, 6 runs at NYY, and 4 runs vs. Minnesota. His one interleague win came in a shutout against his old team in Toronto, a team that has hit a ton of home runs, but made horrible contact this year. You think this guy misses the AL? I don't.
There are individual stars in the NL that are as good as their AL counterparts, but there are no teams that stack up against the tops of the junior circuit.
Pitcher Pick Ups this week:
Madison Bumgarner-SF
2-2 (including 2 straight road wins) 2.57 ERA 6.75k/9 1.6BB/9 1.04 WHIP
7-1 in 14 AAA starts
Jeremy Hellickson-TB (currenlty in AAA)
11-2 in 18 AAA starts. 2.21 ERA 104ks in 105IP. Rotation spot should open up, especially if Rays fall out of race and look to deal a SP.
Juan Gutierrez-Ari (closer)
Has apparently taken over for Chad Qualls as closer. Pretty sad that his ugly numbers are an improvement over Qualls.
Watch the trade deadline for how it will impact the closers spot, several teams are rumored to be dealing. Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, and Pittsburgh are a few. This can kill the value of an existing closer who becomes a set-up guy and open up chances for unknowns to take over those important save opportunities.
Happy hunting this week....
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