(The Bengals welcomed arch rival Pittsburgh to PBS in week 3. The post mortem to this game will be posted a little later today. I wouldn't want to spoil the outcome. Hint: I was wrong on my prediction but the analysis was still pretty good).
Always a tough match up for the Bengals, this is the first division
game for both teams and the loser will not only be down a game in the
division but will be a game below .500.
When the Bengals have the ball:
You couldn't ask to catch this defense at a better time. Troy
Polamalu is out and he is by far their best defensive player and the
wildcard in any defensive alignment. Without him, their secondary is
pretty average. Ike Taylor is a good cover corner, but I'm
unimpressed with the cover skills of the rest of the unit. William
Gay should be tested, and the nickel and dime combination of Deshea
Townsend and yes, that Keiwan Ratliff should be no match in individual
coverage. Ryan Clark is a hitter and Tyrone Carter will hit you as
well, but they will not cover ground like Troy P. I expect a lot of
zone coverage with at least one deep safety on every play. They will
bring safeties on zone blitzes, so the matchup of a linebacker or
defensive end is coverage must be exploited. Overall, pass coverage
is not a strength with Troy P. out and there will be plays to be had
against this defense. This team only has one pick, and it belongs to
Troy P. which shows a lack of playmaking ability back there.
The front seven has in years past been the best in football. As 3-4's
go, this defensive line is as good as it gets. Casey Hampton is a
sumo wrestler in the middle, and both Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel are
beasts. I thought Keisel was the best player on the defense during
the playoffs when he absolutely dominated. Hampton and his backup
Chris Hoke are superb run stoppers and Smith and Keisel can both do
that and occasionally get after the passer. It's going to be a tough
day for the interior offensive line, and their performance will be the
key to the game. What really pops out at you looking at this defense
this year is the lack of sacks. One sack for Smith and one for
Farrior in the first two games. None for Woodley and none for
Harrison. You have to figure these guys are getting frustrated. Time
and again against both Tennessee and Chicago, the quarterbacks were
decisive and got rid of the ball rather than taking sacks. Can Palmer
do this too? I just can't see both of those passrushers going three
games without a sack, and I expect Anthony Collins especially to have
trouble against Woodley. If I were Lebeau, I'd be targeting him for a
lot of overload blitzes Sunday. The Steelers also like to take
advantage of their horses up front, and bring linebacker pressures up
the middle using twists. Farrior especially is deadly on the blitz,
so it's huge for the running backs to at least slow that down. Palmer
is going to get hit, it's a matter of minimizing the damage and giving
him as much time as possible to get the ball downfield.
The biggest issue for the Bengals will always be avoiding beating
themselves. You just can't compound negative plays with stupid
penalties. The Bears are not as good as the Bengals, but they beat
the Steelers playing a nearly mistake free game. If the Bengals do
Sunday what they did against Denver and Green Bay they will lose. The
Steelers will sack Palmer, but don't add to that lost yardage with
false starts or illegal formation penalties. Holding penalties are
part of the game, pre-snap penalties show an utter lack of discipline.
If either tackle gives up a sack on a speed rush, watch out for a
pre-snap penalty immediately following. The Bengals are capable of
converting on third and longs, but no team is going to consistently do
that on the Steelers.
I seriously doubt they run for more than 70 yards, but they have to at
least try. Benson is too slow to do much against this team, but Scott
could have some success. I look for at least one good screen play in
this game, especially with Troy P. the screen killer out of the game.
No safety in the game is better at recognition and closing down the
screen. That is a huge loss. There may be big run opportunities
however, and if the back can get into the secondary, could go to the
house with much better blocking from receivers like Coles and
Caldwell. These opportunities would not be as likely with Polamalu
healthy. I would expect a play like that to happen off tackle to the
left if it happens, away from Smith and Farrior's side. I'm still not
sold on Timmons, even if he's healthy, and Fox is a backup. It is
usually impossible to stretch plays against this team because of their
speed in pursuit.
The Steelers have also shown a tendency to give up yards, but not
points. When you get chances to score in close, you must get 6. The
Bears did this last Sunday and the got the win. You cannot kick field
goals and beat this team. If you can get two touchdowns in the
redzone and maybe one on a big play, you can win. The Bengals have
the firepower to do it, but do they have the composure and discipline?
When the Steelers have the ball:
For some reason, even though they have not been able to consistently
establish the run for two years, they seem to be able to run on the
Bengals. Last year, Mewelde Moore killed them. They must, must, must
stop the run. Hold this team to under 100, and more like 80 and
you've got a great chance to win. First down is critical. If you can
get the Steelers in 2nd or 3rd and long, they are at a disadvantage.
Big Ben holds the ball forever, and their pass protection is average
at best, which leads to sack opportunities. The Bengals just got a
taste of what a mobile quarterback can do against GB, and there were
plenty of missed opportunities outside the pocket for Rodgers. The
Steelers like to roll Ben much like GB, and will often take their deep
shots out of that type of play. Typically the Steelers are a quick
pass attack with bunched formations giving them a chance to create
match up problems or to get blockers in front of short screens. They
are very effective in short to intermediate range down and distance
and in the 2 minute offense where the line doesn't have long to block
or the pass rushers wear down. They've almost become a pass-first
team, which is very un-Steeler like. The Bengals have to keep them
that way.
Santonio Holmes is their most dynamic offensive weapon. He must be
doubled regularly. He is not a huge deep threat, but is lethal after
the catch in space. He can make a short pass go the distance, so
tackling is key. Hines Ward is not what he once was, but is still a
smart player and a guy that is especially good in the redzone and
third down. Obviously he's a great blocker as well, which helps make
short passes to guys like Holmes so effective. The Steelers are still
waiting on Limas Sweed to do anything as a vertical threat and rely
more on Mike Wallace as the third receiver. He is a good young player
and has blazing speed. He's not a go up and get it type of receiver
though so he's used more on slants and screens than back shoulder
fades. Heath Miller is everything you could want in a tight end and
has worked over the Bengals in the past. Then again, what tight end
hasn't? The Steelers use him in many ways, from downfield attacking
the seam to tight end screens in the redzone. He is especially tough
when he shows pass protection and waits until the defender commits,
then slides out into the flat for solid gains.
Best case, the Steelers have to play from behind much of the game and
start to feel the pressure to get yards in chunks. The Bengals have
to get pressure and find a way to get Ben to the ground enough to make
him throw quicker than he's comfortable. They have not been able to
do this over the last couple of years. If the Steelers can control
the clock with a decent run game and short passing attack, it will be
a long day for the Bengals.
Teams:
What's this? The Bengals have a return game? Better use it well.
Field position in a game like this is huge, huge, huge. Kevin Huber
contributed as much to the win in GB as anyone, and he'll have to kick
well because there will be plenty of punts in this one. Logan for the
Steelers is an electric return guy with blazing speed. Blink and
he'll take one to the house. A game like this could very well come
down to teams play. Jeff Reed missed two in Chicago and cost them the
game, don't expect that again.
Prediction:
The Bengals have the talent to win, but lack the discipline. I'd love
to pick the win here, but I just haven't seen enough over the first
two games. You can't ask for the Steelers to be in much worse shape
than they are this week, but I still think they find a way to win.
The Steelers are in the Bengals heads, and the Bengals collective
heads are often up their arses. They were physically a better team
than both Denver and Green Bay, against the Steelers it is even at
best. I give the mental edge, and the game to the Steelers.
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