Monday, November 22, 2010
If Mike Brown gave a $#!t.....
He'd fire Marvin Lewis today and let Mike Zimmer finish the season as head coach. He doesn't care, so I'm not holding my breath.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Bengals vs Bills aka the Pooper Bowl Week 11
Took a week off there, but didn't miss much. The Bungholes continue to find create ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Defense played well enough to beat Peyton Manning and a beat up Colts team but the offense continues to give away points and dig themselves into holes like a gopher. Way to lose yet another game you coulda won.
This week we'll let another guest blogger take a swing at previewing this craptastic team and their titanic struggle to get back in the win column. Some say that he can chuck more wood than any g-damn woodchuck and that his genitals are on upside down. All we know is, he's called Jason Johantges.
1st Quarter
Bengals fumble a punt return setting up the Bills in field goal range where they hit it and go ahead 3-0.
The Bengals take the following possession (amazingly not fumbling the kickoff return) all the way to the red zone where Brat calls Pass, run, and a predictable QB bootleg for a 7 yard loss. The Bengals kicker of the week, also predictably, misses a makeable field goal.
The Bills go 3 and out with the Bengals retaining the ball and letting the time run out in the 1st quarter. Bills 3-0 through the 1st quarter.
2nd Quarter
Palmer overthrows Ocho Stinko but on the next play hits TO for a big TD. Bengals 7-3.
Fitzpatrick, Lee Evans, and some doses of Fred Jackson abuse the Bengals D-line and Safeties on the next drive. Bengals fans start wishing for the return of the Fitzpatrick years. Bills 10-7.
Palmer over throws TO and then misses Ocho Engaged-o when he cuts short his route hitting a safety perfectly in the numbers for a INT returned to the red zone. Defense stiffens up like a Shestina crotch watching an episode of “Glee” holding them to FG. Bills 13-7.
The two minute Bengals offense falters as Marvin Lewis forgets to take his last timeout while staring blankly at the field. At the half, Bills 13-7.
3rd Quarter
Remembering that Bernard Scott is still on the team, Brat orders a few runs and screen passes as Benson takes a breather. A few Gresham routes that actually call for him to run more than 5 yards and create coverage problems for the LB’s (wishful thinking) are hit. Shipley catches a ball that puts the Bengals in the red zone. After a predictable corner fade to Ocho Terrible-o and a draw to Benson (as predictable as the sun rising in the morning) Gresham gets loose for a TD reception. Bengals 14-13.
INT by the flying Fitzpatrick bros returned to Bills territory.
Carson misfires a few times and the Bengals inexplicably punt from the Bills 35 yard line.
Look at Fitzy run!!!!! Ryan Fitz leads the Bills, with Fred Jackson in the passing game, to a TD!!! Bills 20-14.
Bengals get the kickoff and run a draw play to run out the clock to end the 3rd quarter. Bills 20-14.
4th Quarter
Bad throws and Poor/wrong route running from the Reality twins leads to a three and out.
Bills end a 5 minute drive with a field goal. Bills 23-14.
Big return from Scott into Bills territory. The Bengals passing game looks like they were together during the pre-season and get into the red zone. The inevitable Brian Leonard shovel pass in the redzone is predictably defended by the Bills but he somehow breaks 5 tackles for the TD. Bills 23-21.
After a 3 minute drive to the 2 minute warning the Bills turn the ball over.
Power running by Benson opens up TO for a long catch as Marvin Lewis fails to blink. With 30 seconds left the Bills use their timeouts up as the Bengals go to kick a FG.
New Bengals kicker nails it!!!!!! Bengals 24-23.
Too much time left on the clock after a return to midfield. The Flying Fitzpatrick gets the ball to makeable FG distance.
The kick is up with 1 sec remaining, it’s veering to the right but still on line to scrape the inside of the upright.
Both judges look up and start to signal then BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM
The Cincinnati Bengals Freedom Fighters detonate 30 tons of explosives leveling the stadium, ending the lives of the Brown family and mercifully ending the life of the Bengals organization. The city of Cincinnati residents cheer as they are free of the stadium tax burden and 20+ years of Brown/Bengals ineptitude.
Everyone lives happily ever. The end
Monday, November 8, 2010
Bengals v. Steelers-Week 9 (Guest Preview)
For something new and different, we're going to turn the keys to the car over to an esteemed guest poster for their preview of the Bengals game (since I'm on strike). Some say his testicles are shaped like 9 volt batteries. Others say he is paid in strong pornography. Either way, please welcome Brad Shestina.
The box score will look something like this
End of 1st qtr:
Bengals – 3
Steelers – 10
End of 1st half
Bengals – 6
Steelers – 20
End of 3rd qtr
Bengals – 13
Steelers – 30
End of game
Bengals – 13
Steelers – 37
Carson throws 2 picks
Tocho have a combined 80 yds receiving. Brian Leonard scores our lone TD with a shovel pass inside the 10.
I will turn the game off before halftime.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Bengals v. Steelers-Week 9
I'm boycotting writing about this team anymore until they win a game. Miserable season just continues to get worse.
They should lose to the Steelers, but an upset wouldn't shock me. This team has the talent to beat almost anyone they play. They consistently lack the discipline or coaching to do so.
Looks like Vegas was very smart to put the over/under win total for this team at 8.
They should lose to the Steelers, but an upset wouldn't shock me. This team has the talent to beat almost anyone they play. They consistently lack the discipline or coaching to do so.
Looks like Vegas was very smart to put the over/under win total for this team at 8.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Bengals v. Dolphins-Week 8
Big, big game for both teams, but especially the Bengals who can only afford 2 loses for the remainder of the year if they have any playoff hopes. This matchup pits two teams who can relate very well to each other in terms of their relative struggles. Both teams have been run first teams in past seasons, but are struggling to establish any dominance on the ground and are really struggling to run in the redzone. Both have defenses that are giving up a ton of yards and points and have not been nearly as effective as they were in 2009. Both had playoff aspirations going into the season, but are looking up at two divisional foes ahead of them in the standings. Both face challenging schedules beyond this matchup. Of the two, Cincy still needs this one more.
When the Dolphins have the ball-
They need to get back to running it effectively early. The Dolphins have completely abandoned the Wildcat the last two games, but I expect to see some of it this week, especially in short yardage situations. The Bengals really struggled against the zone blocking scheme of the Falcons, and I'd look for the Dolphins to try to take advantage of LT Jake Long vs. smaller Bengal RDE's. With Odom and Fanene out, we may see some Carlos Dunlap this week which may be good or bad.
Either way, it's clear that the Bengals defenders are trying too hard to make things happen. Do your job, don't try to do your job and everyone else's. Over pursuit, bad angles, not reading keys, not maintaining leverage, not having faith in the other guys, it's all adding up to big plays. Guys like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall are going to make plays, it's the 3 yard dump off that goes for 20 yards that has to stop. Make the other team earn it.
Chad Henne has developed into a decent NFL QB and the Miami Oline has only given up 10 sacks against some pretty good pass rushes. The Bengals have struggled to get pressure outside of the Baltimore game, and will have to be better to win on third down. Henne has Marshall, Brian Hartline and Devone Bess at WR, and Anthony Fasano who's a decent TE, but it's the backs out of the backfield that worry me most. The Bengal LB's and Safeties have struggled in space, and missed tackles turn into big plays. CB and S have taken hits from injuries, and JJoe absolutely has to play in this game with Adam Jones now done for the season. If he can't go, it's going to be Morgan Trent playing all game with rookie Brandon Ghee or Chris Crocker playing out of position outside on the opposite sideline. Chinny Ndukwe is out, and Roy Williams is not good in coverage even if he does play. That will mean that either or both of Reggie and Tom Nelson will have to contribute if Crocker is the choice at CB. Advantage Miami. Huge advantage without JJoe.
The Bengals have generally been out-coached on both sides of the ball this season. Out-schemed, out-adjusted. Offenses have been creative in personnel and formation and the Bengals have not responded. Additionally, the Bengals have not been able to pressure without blitzing, but the LB's in particular have been ineffective outside of Keith Rivers. The middle LB blitz has been a total joke. Outside of run support, Dhani Jones is playing like crap. If they lose this game, and drop to 2-5, it's time to move Rey Maualuga to the Mike full-time.
The Dolphin Offense is not as good as Atlanta's, but they don't turn it over and they don't commit penalties. If the Dolphins can run it at all, they are going to put up yards. The silver lining is that they've struggled as mightily in the redzone as the Bengals, so this could be a field goal fest with 800 total yards of offense.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The no-huddle has been nice. The yards, especially the pass yards, have been nice. But this team is just not putting it together with any consistency. They've run it in spots, they've passed well in spots, but they've been just as bad as good at other times. Play calling, penalties, and miscues are ever present. Even in the incredible second half vs. Atlanta, there were plenty of frustrating mistakes holding this team back. Still, just as the glass is half empty, it's also half full. You can clearly see the talent level of this offensive unit, and the ability to dominate when everyone is just doing their job.
The Bengals can't just be a passing team, especially in the redzone. 2 rushing TD's just isn't going to cut it. 1 rush over 20 yards? There are holes, but no one's blocking downfield. Cedric Benson needs to take what's there and stop tying to be the hero. He continues to have ball security problems in key spots, with the latest being an absolute killer vs. Atlanta. RT Andre Smith played decently against Atlanta, and hopefully can emerge as the dominant run blocker they hoped he'd be. This offensive line is built to run, and Benson needs to run angry this week to atone. Bernard Scott has also shown flashes that warrant touches. He is electric and can develop into a Kevin Faulk type threat if the line can block better. You can't run routes if you consistently have to max protect. This team has shown the ability to be balanced, and if they can limit mistakes, can be a top tier offensive club. The Dolphins front has taken a lot of hits from injuries and are not an elite run stopping unit. They've sold out to stop the run the last couple of weeks and have paid dearly in the passing game.
So Carson Palmer is still part of the problem, right? I've said for some time, he's still the man. He misses throws, but so does every QB. See Brees, Drew from week 7. Anyhow, the Atlanta game showed that primary receiver Chad OchoDoucheBaggo is just as apt to run the wrong route as make a huge catch. TO is clearly the #1 on this team and will be thrown a deep fade at least twice a game. (Had he gotten his feet in bounds, the Bengals score instead of Ceddy Ced fumbling). Shipley and Gresham are stars in the making. Gresham is a matchup nightmare and needs, needs, needs, to the be the #1 target in the redzone. Please find this guy this week. Shipley is a punt returner in the open field and finally showed those skills last week. He's also shown the will to go up over the middle and make huge catches. This is a top 5 pass offense with tons of weapons, but they need to translate yards to points. It's as simple as that. The Dolphins have really struggled to stop the pass. The secondary is as bad as Atlanta's and has completely relied on the pass rush to stop teams. Palmer will have another 300 yard day, but it's imperative that few if any throws get caught by the wrong jerseys.
The Oline played pretty well against a really good pass rush in Atlanta. The road gets no easier against Cam Wake and the Dolphins. Then you get the Steelers and then Dwight Freeney and the Colts. The Dolphins have wracked up 17 sacks this season and forced 3 Ben Rapistburger fumbles last week. Penalties and negative plays have to be minimized to avoid obvious passing situations that slant to the favor of the pass rush. The Dolphins love to play aggressive press man coverage anticipating quick throws. Reading the hots and breaking tackles are the key to extending drives. Given time, the double moves and fades will be there for big plays. The Bengals have to be more judicious about when to call those plays. Also, having so many defenders near the line opens the possibility for huge runs if you get through.
Again, this is a decent offense up against a struggling defense. If the offense can avoid mistakes, and gets into rhythm, they can dominate.
Special teams-
The Dolphins special teams have been bad this season, but that might be skewed a bit by one of the worst games ever vs. the Patriots. Blocked kicks for TD, returns for TD, they did it all and their teams coach was fired for their effort. The Bengals haven't been great in the return or coverage games, but they've been better since having serious early season issues. Losing Adam Jones hurts, but Cosby and B Scott are experienced. Miami's return game doesn't scare me at all since the departure of one trick pony Ted Ginn.
As I said, this could be a field goal fest and both the Nuge and Dan Carpenter have been big this season. Kevin Huber is slightly better than Brandon Fields, but both have done a good job pinning opposition inside the 20.
Prediction-
I got back on the right side of things last week, but it was the wrong side for the Bungles. They have to have this game. Miami has a three game road winning streak coming in, which always bodes well for a loss in the topsy-turvy NFL. The Dolphins have not had a running back top 80 yards this season, and the Bengals D will have to be wanting blood after such a poor performance in the Dirty South. The Dolphins D just doesn't match up well at all with this offense, especially the pass offense. If they don't create turnovers caused by intense pressure, and they haven't done a great job so far, they're going to give up a ton of yards. It's the points that matter more than yards though, and whichever team can play better in the redzone wins. It seems that every game this year is 23-20 and not surprisingly, the over-under is 43 1/2. I'll take the Bengals and the under in this absolute must win game. If they lose, the next post is going to either be speculating on who the next HC will be, or who they will target in the draft. Yeah, it's that bad.
When the Dolphins have the ball-
They need to get back to running it effectively early. The Dolphins have completely abandoned the Wildcat the last two games, but I expect to see some of it this week, especially in short yardage situations. The Bengals really struggled against the zone blocking scheme of the Falcons, and I'd look for the Dolphins to try to take advantage of LT Jake Long vs. smaller Bengal RDE's. With Odom and Fanene out, we may see some Carlos Dunlap this week which may be good or bad.
Either way, it's clear that the Bengals defenders are trying too hard to make things happen. Do your job, don't try to do your job and everyone else's. Over pursuit, bad angles, not reading keys, not maintaining leverage, not having faith in the other guys, it's all adding up to big plays. Guys like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall are going to make plays, it's the 3 yard dump off that goes for 20 yards that has to stop. Make the other team earn it.
Chad Henne has developed into a decent NFL QB and the Miami Oline has only given up 10 sacks against some pretty good pass rushes. The Bengals have struggled to get pressure outside of the Baltimore game, and will have to be better to win on third down. Henne has Marshall, Brian Hartline and Devone Bess at WR, and Anthony Fasano who's a decent TE, but it's the backs out of the backfield that worry me most. The Bengal LB's and Safeties have struggled in space, and missed tackles turn into big plays. CB and S have taken hits from injuries, and JJoe absolutely has to play in this game with Adam Jones now done for the season. If he can't go, it's going to be Morgan Trent playing all game with rookie Brandon Ghee or Chris Crocker playing out of position outside on the opposite sideline. Chinny Ndukwe is out, and Roy Williams is not good in coverage even if he does play. That will mean that either or both of Reggie and Tom Nelson will have to contribute if Crocker is the choice at CB. Advantage Miami. Huge advantage without JJoe.
The Bengals have generally been out-coached on both sides of the ball this season. Out-schemed, out-adjusted. Offenses have been creative in personnel and formation and the Bengals have not responded. Additionally, the Bengals have not been able to pressure without blitzing, but the LB's in particular have been ineffective outside of Keith Rivers. The middle LB blitz has been a total joke. Outside of run support, Dhani Jones is playing like crap. If they lose this game, and drop to 2-5, it's time to move Rey Maualuga to the Mike full-time.
The Dolphin Offense is not as good as Atlanta's, but they don't turn it over and they don't commit penalties. If the Dolphins can run it at all, they are going to put up yards. The silver lining is that they've struggled as mightily in the redzone as the Bengals, so this could be a field goal fest with 800 total yards of offense.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The no-huddle has been nice. The yards, especially the pass yards, have been nice. But this team is just not putting it together with any consistency. They've run it in spots, they've passed well in spots, but they've been just as bad as good at other times. Play calling, penalties, and miscues are ever present. Even in the incredible second half vs. Atlanta, there were plenty of frustrating mistakes holding this team back. Still, just as the glass is half empty, it's also half full. You can clearly see the talent level of this offensive unit, and the ability to dominate when everyone is just doing their job.
The Bengals can't just be a passing team, especially in the redzone. 2 rushing TD's just isn't going to cut it. 1 rush over 20 yards? There are holes, but no one's blocking downfield. Cedric Benson needs to take what's there and stop tying to be the hero. He continues to have ball security problems in key spots, with the latest being an absolute killer vs. Atlanta. RT Andre Smith played decently against Atlanta, and hopefully can emerge as the dominant run blocker they hoped he'd be. This offensive line is built to run, and Benson needs to run angry this week to atone. Bernard Scott has also shown flashes that warrant touches. He is electric and can develop into a Kevin Faulk type threat if the line can block better. You can't run routes if you consistently have to max protect. This team has shown the ability to be balanced, and if they can limit mistakes, can be a top tier offensive club. The Dolphins front has taken a lot of hits from injuries and are not an elite run stopping unit. They've sold out to stop the run the last couple of weeks and have paid dearly in the passing game.
So Carson Palmer is still part of the problem, right? I've said for some time, he's still the man. He misses throws, but so does every QB. See Brees, Drew from week 7. Anyhow, the Atlanta game showed that primary receiver Chad OchoDoucheBaggo is just as apt to run the wrong route as make a huge catch. TO is clearly the #1 on this team and will be thrown a deep fade at least twice a game. (Had he gotten his feet in bounds, the Bengals score instead of Ceddy Ced fumbling). Shipley and Gresham are stars in the making. Gresham is a matchup nightmare and needs, needs, needs, to the be the #1 target in the redzone. Please find this guy this week. Shipley is a punt returner in the open field and finally showed those skills last week. He's also shown the will to go up over the middle and make huge catches. This is a top 5 pass offense with tons of weapons, but they need to translate yards to points. It's as simple as that. The Dolphins have really struggled to stop the pass. The secondary is as bad as Atlanta's and has completely relied on the pass rush to stop teams. Palmer will have another 300 yard day, but it's imperative that few if any throws get caught by the wrong jerseys.
The Oline played pretty well against a really good pass rush in Atlanta. The road gets no easier against Cam Wake and the Dolphins. Then you get the Steelers and then Dwight Freeney and the Colts. The Dolphins have wracked up 17 sacks this season and forced 3 Ben Rapistburger fumbles last week. Penalties and negative plays have to be minimized to avoid obvious passing situations that slant to the favor of the pass rush. The Dolphins love to play aggressive press man coverage anticipating quick throws. Reading the hots and breaking tackles are the key to extending drives. Given time, the double moves and fades will be there for big plays. The Bengals have to be more judicious about when to call those plays. Also, having so many defenders near the line opens the possibility for huge runs if you get through.
Again, this is a decent offense up against a struggling defense. If the offense can avoid mistakes, and gets into rhythm, they can dominate.
Special teams-
The Dolphins special teams have been bad this season, but that might be skewed a bit by one of the worst games ever vs. the Patriots. Blocked kicks for TD, returns for TD, they did it all and their teams coach was fired for their effort. The Bengals haven't been great in the return or coverage games, but they've been better since having serious early season issues. Losing Adam Jones hurts, but Cosby and B Scott are experienced. Miami's return game doesn't scare me at all since the departure of one trick pony Ted Ginn.
As I said, this could be a field goal fest and both the Nuge and Dan Carpenter have been big this season. Kevin Huber is slightly better than Brandon Fields, but both have done a good job pinning opposition inside the 20.
Prediction-
I got back on the right side of things last week, but it was the wrong side for the Bungles. They have to have this game. Miami has a three game road winning streak coming in, which always bodes well for a loss in the topsy-turvy NFL. The Dolphins have not had a running back top 80 yards this season, and the Bengals D will have to be wanting blood after such a poor performance in the Dirty South. The Dolphins D just doesn't match up well at all with this offense, especially the pass offense. If they don't create turnovers caused by intense pressure, and they haven't done a great job so far, they're going to give up a ton of yards. It's the points that matter more than yards though, and whichever team can play better in the redzone wins. It seems that every game this year is 23-20 and not surprisingly, the over-under is 43 1/2. I'll take the Bengals and the under in this absolute must win game. If they lose, the next post is going to either be speculating on who the next HC will be, or who they will target in the draft. Yeah, it's that bad.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Bengals v. Falcons-Week 7
At 2-3, with a gauntlet of Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh and Indy looming, this game becomes the pivotal game of the season. The Bengals need to steal one of the next two road games and defend home turf to get back into the playoff picture. No easy task for an underachieving Bengal squad.
When the Falcons have the ball-
It's imperative to slow down the run attack and get pressure on Matt Ryan. The Falcons are a power run team with a vertical pass attack, but everything starts with the run. Ryan was off in Philly last week, missing some wide open guys. He's been great at home in his career, so the Bengals pass rush will have it's work cut out for it. LT Sam Baker really struggled with RDE Trent Cole last week, so there's reason for optimism. RDE Antwan Odom is out for four weeks while suspended, but that may not be a bad thing considered how poorly he's played. Hopefully the return of Johnathan Fanene will spark the D.
Roddy White is clearly the #1 receiver on this team and will have his share of catches. The key is keeping them short and not allowing any easy plays deep. Michael Jenkins was good in his season debut last week and gives them another decent option outside. With JJoe out, this could be a problem if Morgan Trent is asked to play a lot outside. The middle of the field is the main concern I have with Tony Gonzalez and RB Jason Snelling big factors in the pass game.
The Falcons will not have their #2 TE, so they may not run as much 2 TE sets as normal. Hopefully that helps the run D.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Falcons have an aggressive attacking pursuit based 4-3, similar to the Bengals. They are open to misdirection plays and cut back runs in the front, but also have the ability to create negative plays with great penetration. DE's John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are as good as it gets and will cause problems for RT Dennis Roland. Both guys alternate sides, so you can't lock in on one.
DT Peria Jerry is a disruptive player as well, so it's best to be able to run right at him on the interior. The Falcons do an okay job against the run, but it's the pass rush they excel at, especially at home. Staying out of long down and distance is imperative.
The secondary is bad, and was exploited all day long by the Eagles. The Bengals have hit on some long pass plays and today it's important for Chad especially to get involved. If the OLine can give Carson time, this could be a big passing day.
Brian Leonard is out, so I expect something big out of Bernard Scott today. The matchup favors his skill set more than C Benson.
Teams-
The Bengals have better returners than Atlanta and need to take advantage. Kicking games are similar.
Prediction-
Everything points to a Bengal loss, but there are some reasons for optimism. This is a classic trap game for Atlanta as they're coming off two straight road games and heading into a bye. The Bengals are the desperate team, coming off their own bye. They absolutely need to respond. I'm going to pick the Falcons, but a Bengal win won't surprise me one bit.
When the Falcons have the ball-
It's imperative to slow down the run attack and get pressure on Matt Ryan. The Falcons are a power run team with a vertical pass attack, but everything starts with the run. Ryan was off in Philly last week, missing some wide open guys. He's been great at home in his career, so the Bengals pass rush will have it's work cut out for it. LT Sam Baker really struggled with RDE Trent Cole last week, so there's reason for optimism. RDE Antwan Odom is out for four weeks while suspended, but that may not be a bad thing considered how poorly he's played. Hopefully the return of Johnathan Fanene will spark the D.
Roddy White is clearly the #1 receiver on this team and will have his share of catches. The key is keeping them short and not allowing any easy plays deep. Michael Jenkins was good in his season debut last week and gives them another decent option outside. With JJoe out, this could be a problem if Morgan Trent is asked to play a lot outside. The middle of the field is the main concern I have with Tony Gonzalez and RB Jason Snelling big factors in the pass game.
The Falcons will not have their #2 TE, so they may not run as much 2 TE sets as normal. Hopefully that helps the run D.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Falcons have an aggressive attacking pursuit based 4-3, similar to the Bengals. They are open to misdirection plays and cut back runs in the front, but also have the ability to create negative plays with great penetration. DE's John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are as good as it gets and will cause problems for RT Dennis Roland. Both guys alternate sides, so you can't lock in on one.
DT Peria Jerry is a disruptive player as well, so it's best to be able to run right at him on the interior. The Falcons do an okay job against the run, but it's the pass rush they excel at, especially at home. Staying out of long down and distance is imperative.
The secondary is bad, and was exploited all day long by the Eagles. The Bengals have hit on some long pass plays and today it's important for Chad especially to get involved. If the OLine can give Carson time, this could be a big passing day.
Brian Leonard is out, so I expect something big out of Bernard Scott today. The matchup favors his skill set more than C Benson.
Teams-
The Bengals have better returners than Atlanta and need to take advantage. Kicking games are similar.
Prediction-
Everything points to a Bengal loss, but there are some reasons for optimism. This is a classic trap game for Atlanta as they're coming off two straight road games and heading into a bye. The Bengals are the desperate team, coming off their own bye. They absolutely need to respond. I'm going to pick the Falcons, but a Bengal win won't surprise me one bit.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Bengals State of the Bye Week Address-Week 6
Wow, what a lousy start. I'd never have guessed that this team would be 2-3 going into the bye, off two vomit inducing losses to lousy Tampa Bay and lousier Cleveland. Worse still, is the way they've lost and the fact that they've basically been outplayed and out-coached in all three loses. Not good enough, not by a long shot, and the storm clouds are moving in for what could be a very rough middle of the season. Marvin Lewis is going to have to do his best coaching yet to rally this group if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. The easiest stretch of schedule is over. I thought they'd have to be at 3-2, minimum, to have a shot at the playoffs. Let's hope I'm wrong, because this season is taking on the feeling of a requiem for the Lewis era.
Before going too far forward, let's take a moment to look back. Way back. Before the Marvin Lewis was hired as head coach, after a successful run as linebackers coach in Pittsburgh and defensive coordinator in Baltimore and Washington, the Cincinnati Bengals were a laughing stock for more than a decade. Bengaldom had to suffer through the likes of Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick Lebeau (terrific coordinator, terrible head coach), as the leaders of this franchise. Marvin brought structure, a plan, and a level of professionalism that immediately changed the culture of losing. Everyone chanted "In Marvin We Trust" as the team looked to be turning slowly away from the abyss and back towards relevance. We've come a long way baby, and not in a good way. Eight mediocre years later, two playoff loses later, I don't know how many tears will be shed when Lewis does not return as head coach next season. I for one, am and will always be, a Marvin guy. And I'm very sad about the way this has gone. I think most other fans are angry, me, I'm just sad. I wanted so badly for Marvin to bring a title to Cincinnati, and it's not going to happen.
Despite some very talented teams, and despite personal drive, accountability, and professionalism, Marvin's teams have consistently shown a lack of the characteristics he exemplifies. I don't know how to explain that. This year's team is a perfect example. 12 win talent, 6 win discipline and execution. No excuse for that, and apparently no answers for fixing it. I love Marvin Lewis as a football CEO, but even I will admit that he and his staff often are out game planned and out-adjusted during games. Aggressive when you just don't need to be, sloppy when you need to be precise. That is frustrating. Watching team after team play this team waiting for them to self-destruct. Time after time, the Bengals accommodate. It's cliche, but I can't count the times the Bengals weren't beaten, they beat themselves. Ultimately, doesn't that come down to coaching?
Marvin deserves the heat, and so do his assistants. Three defensive coordinators have come and gone in the Lewis era. Leslie Frazier should probably still be here, but personal and professional differences ended that relationship. He's one of the hottest head coaching prospects in the game now. Chuck Bresnahan suffered from the least amount of talent on that side of the ball during Lewis' tenure, including the losses of high draft picks David Pollack and Odell Thurman, and the erosion of the skills key guys like Tory James and Deltha O'Neal. Never had a chance. Mike Zimmer has infused a new attitude and confidence in the last couple of seasons, and has also benefited from a ton of high draft picks contributing. The emergence of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph as star players would help any coordinator look good. The defense was good early, bad in the middle, and good again late, but never as dominant as we all thought it would be under a defensive guru head coach. Top 10's statistically, yes, but truly dominant, no.
Offensively, we've seen the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows under Lewis. Much of that has and does revolve around the health of Marvin's first draft pick, Carson Palmer. Lewis, Palmer, OC Bob Bratkowski (who Marvin retained as OC from the Lebeau regime), and Ken Zampese have been together throughout Lewis' tenure, destinies and legacies intertwined. The '05 Bengals will always be the great "what if" team. Much like the '09 Saints, this Bengals team featured a potent offense capable of running or throwing on anyone, and an opportunistic turnover creating defense. But the first play of that first Lewis playoff game changed everything, and a Steelers team that would've gone home for the remainder of the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl. The ultimate insult added to injury. Ah, what could have been.
The Bengals have never returned to that height on the mountain. Injuries to key guys, free agency, and the general roster turnover that is par for the NFL course, took their toll. It would be four more years before the Bengals would sniff the playoffs again, but there is no way the '09 team was as talented as the '05 team. (The 2005 Bengals had arguably 9 or 10 offensive pro-bowlers and another 2-3 on defense and special teams). The '09 Bengals won on grit and a physical style of play very different from any other Lewis team. But they couldn't beat the better teams without more firepower offensively. So they went into the 2010 offseason, probably Lewis' last, with that in mind. The added names like Gresham, Shipley, Bryant and Owens to a healthy Carson Palmer and a running game returning all it's key players. Expectations were understandably high. And in typical fashion, the Bengals under Lewis have not lived up to them.
Watching the first 5 games of the 2010 season has been torture. Death by a thousand cuts. Penalties, turnovers, bad decisions, bad philosophy, bad execution, you name it. The Bengals have found just about every possible way to make the kind of mistakes that lose games. And it's been everyone. Palmer has taken the brunt of the criticism, and much is deserved, but it's been a team effort to create this shit sandwich, and we've been forced to eat it. No playoff team is going 1-3 against Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa. Especially in the AFC. Especially when the hated Steelers were nearly 4-0 with the equipment manager playing quarterback. (I almost threw up in my mouth writing that). The Bengals needed a fast start, and this has been anything but.
They've looked great in spots. Flashes of brilliance. Then it's burns out. Why? Why do they continuously do this shit? Why do they have to make it harder on themselves? Why the silly pre-snap penalties? Why do you call a high risk play when you don't need it? Why do you throw a high risk throw when you don't need it? Why do you let other teams dictate the tempo and the play calls? The simple answer is, it's coached that way, or isn't coached depending on how you look at it. If it's coached correctly, guys either aren't implementing or don't care to. TO is bitching, Chad is bitching, Cedric is bitching, the line is bitching, and now even Palmer is bitching and beginning to throw coaches under the bus. It's not a good sign, at least in the short term. Maybe it is time for Coach Lew and Coach Brat to be gone, but it's week 6! "Game over man"!
At Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis. The next month looks fun doesn't it? How is this team going to do better than 2-2 against that? Maybe they'll be lucky to get to that. If they are 4-5 after week 9, that will give them one more loss over the last 7 weeks or they are out of the playoffs. No way a 9-7 team, with 2 conference loses already, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the division already leading them, is making the playoffs. Sprinkle in the potential for a fractured locker room and this thing could be all but done before Thanksgiving. I pray to the football gods that I'm wrong.
My biggest concern going into the season was the lack of a contract extension for Marvin because we've seen how this movie ends. Seattle, Mike Holmgren, last season of a contract, high expectations. That Seahawk team struggled early and absolutely mailed it in the second half because they knew, even with the replacement HC on the staff, there would be no accountability. Pride and professionalism are not enough in today's NFL to get athlete's to give their best. There must be accountability.
Marvin wants personnel control. Mike Brown won't give it to him. The lines have been drawn, and Marvin looks and sounds like a guy that knows the end is coming. Many will be happy about that, maybe they're right. For me, I'm profoundly sad about it. Most fans have a very short memory, and the NFL is a unique business. Win or lose, those are the only results that matter. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe it's not. I have the feeling we're about to find out if the field turf really is greener on the other side. I don't know that it will be......
Before going too far forward, let's take a moment to look back. Way back. Before the Marvin Lewis was hired as head coach, after a successful run as linebackers coach in Pittsburgh and defensive coordinator in Baltimore and Washington, the Cincinnati Bengals were a laughing stock for more than a decade. Bengaldom had to suffer through the likes of Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick Lebeau (terrific coordinator, terrible head coach), as the leaders of this franchise. Marvin brought structure, a plan, and a level of professionalism that immediately changed the culture of losing. Everyone chanted "In Marvin We Trust" as the team looked to be turning slowly away from the abyss and back towards relevance. We've come a long way baby, and not in a good way. Eight mediocre years later, two playoff loses later, I don't know how many tears will be shed when Lewis does not return as head coach next season. I for one, am and will always be, a Marvin guy. And I'm very sad about the way this has gone. I think most other fans are angry, me, I'm just sad. I wanted so badly for Marvin to bring a title to Cincinnati, and it's not going to happen.
Despite some very talented teams, and despite personal drive, accountability, and professionalism, Marvin's teams have consistently shown a lack of the characteristics he exemplifies. I don't know how to explain that. This year's team is a perfect example. 12 win talent, 6 win discipline and execution. No excuse for that, and apparently no answers for fixing it. I love Marvin Lewis as a football CEO, but even I will admit that he and his staff often are out game planned and out-adjusted during games. Aggressive when you just don't need to be, sloppy when you need to be precise. That is frustrating. Watching team after team play this team waiting for them to self-destruct. Time after time, the Bengals accommodate. It's cliche, but I can't count the times the Bengals weren't beaten, they beat themselves. Ultimately, doesn't that come down to coaching?
Marvin deserves the heat, and so do his assistants. Three defensive coordinators have come and gone in the Lewis era. Leslie Frazier should probably still be here, but personal and professional differences ended that relationship. He's one of the hottest head coaching prospects in the game now. Chuck Bresnahan suffered from the least amount of talent on that side of the ball during Lewis' tenure, including the losses of high draft picks David Pollack and Odell Thurman, and the erosion of the skills key guys like Tory James and Deltha O'Neal. Never had a chance. Mike Zimmer has infused a new attitude and confidence in the last couple of seasons, and has also benefited from a ton of high draft picks contributing. The emergence of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph as star players would help any coordinator look good. The defense was good early, bad in the middle, and good again late, but never as dominant as we all thought it would be under a defensive guru head coach. Top 10's statistically, yes, but truly dominant, no.
Offensively, we've seen the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows under Lewis. Much of that has and does revolve around the health of Marvin's first draft pick, Carson Palmer. Lewis, Palmer, OC Bob Bratkowski (who Marvin retained as OC from the Lebeau regime), and Ken Zampese have been together throughout Lewis' tenure, destinies and legacies intertwined. The '05 Bengals will always be the great "what if" team. Much like the '09 Saints, this Bengals team featured a potent offense capable of running or throwing on anyone, and an opportunistic turnover creating defense. But the first play of that first Lewis playoff game changed everything, and a Steelers team that would've gone home for the remainder of the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl. The ultimate insult added to injury. Ah, what could have been.
The Bengals have never returned to that height on the mountain. Injuries to key guys, free agency, and the general roster turnover that is par for the NFL course, took their toll. It would be four more years before the Bengals would sniff the playoffs again, but there is no way the '09 team was as talented as the '05 team. (The 2005 Bengals had arguably 9 or 10 offensive pro-bowlers and another 2-3 on defense and special teams). The '09 Bengals won on grit and a physical style of play very different from any other Lewis team. But they couldn't beat the better teams without more firepower offensively. So they went into the 2010 offseason, probably Lewis' last, with that in mind. The added names like Gresham, Shipley, Bryant and Owens to a healthy Carson Palmer and a running game returning all it's key players. Expectations were understandably high. And in typical fashion, the Bengals under Lewis have not lived up to them.
Watching the first 5 games of the 2010 season has been torture. Death by a thousand cuts. Penalties, turnovers, bad decisions, bad philosophy, bad execution, you name it. The Bengals have found just about every possible way to make the kind of mistakes that lose games. And it's been everyone. Palmer has taken the brunt of the criticism, and much is deserved, but it's been a team effort to create this shit sandwich, and we've been forced to eat it. No playoff team is going 1-3 against Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa. Especially in the AFC. Especially when the hated Steelers were nearly 4-0 with the equipment manager playing quarterback. (I almost threw up in my mouth writing that). The Bengals needed a fast start, and this has been anything but.
They've looked great in spots. Flashes of brilliance. Then it's burns out. Why? Why do they continuously do this shit? Why do they have to make it harder on themselves? Why the silly pre-snap penalties? Why do you call a high risk play when you don't need it? Why do you throw a high risk throw when you don't need it? Why do you let other teams dictate the tempo and the play calls? The simple answer is, it's coached that way, or isn't coached depending on how you look at it. If it's coached correctly, guys either aren't implementing or don't care to. TO is bitching, Chad is bitching, Cedric is bitching, the line is bitching, and now even Palmer is bitching and beginning to throw coaches under the bus. It's not a good sign, at least in the short term. Maybe it is time for Coach Lew and Coach Brat to be gone, but it's week 6! "Game over man"!
At Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis. The next month looks fun doesn't it? How is this team going to do better than 2-2 against that? Maybe they'll be lucky to get to that. If they are 4-5 after week 9, that will give them one more loss over the last 7 weeks or they are out of the playoffs. No way a 9-7 team, with 2 conference loses already, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the division already leading them, is making the playoffs. Sprinkle in the potential for a fractured locker room and this thing could be all but done before Thanksgiving. I pray to the football gods that I'm wrong.
My biggest concern going into the season was the lack of a contract extension for Marvin because we've seen how this movie ends. Seattle, Mike Holmgren, last season of a contract, high expectations. That Seahawk team struggled early and absolutely mailed it in the second half because they knew, even with the replacement HC on the staff, there would be no accountability. Pride and professionalism are not enough in today's NFL to get athlete's to give their best. There must be accountability.
Marvin wants personnel control. Mike Brown won't give it to him. The lines have been drawn, and Marvin looks and sounds like a guy that knows the end is coming. Many will be happy about that, maybe they're right. For me, I'm profoundly sad about it. Most fans have a very short memory, and the NFL is a unique business. Win or lose, those are the only results that matter. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe it's not. I have the feeling we're about to find out if the field turf really is greener on the other side. I don't know that it will be......
Friday, October 8, 2010
Bengals v. Buccaneers-Week Five
Well, the 72 Dolphins can pop the champagne as I officially dropped out of the ranks of the undefeated with my prediction of a win over the lowly Browns last week. A combination of mistakes, a lack of production in the redzone, and costly penalties put the ball control Browns in the driver's seat the whole game. Even a huge day of passing yardage and a historically great day by TO couldn't pull out a win. Disappointing, but hey, at least the Steelers lost too.
This week the Bengals welcome a young and somewhat up and coming Bucs team to the Jungle, in what I thought might be a trap game heading into the bye. With the loss to the Browns, I don't think focus is going to be the problem. The problem is, and I suppose always has been under coach Lewis, a lack of consistent execution in all phases that is holding a very talented Bengals team back. They've shown they have the ability to be amongst the better teams in the league in spots, but have not been able to avoid the mistakes that hold them back. They've beaten themselves in so many games over the last few years, it's beyond frustrating.
When the Bucs have the ball-
Offensively, the Bucs philosophy isn't that much different from the Browns. They'd prefer to establish the run game, dominate time of possession, and allow young QB Josh Feeman to pick you apart in spots. They don't want the entire game on his shoulders. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they've not been able to really get that ground game going like they'd hoped and have already added RB LeGarrette Blount off waivers to help Cadillac Williams and Kareem Huggins carry the load. Blount is the big power back, in the mold of what the Bengals just saw in Peyton Hillis, so it will be important for the offense to give this Bengal defense help. Score early and get the Bucs throwing. The Bucs have also struggled in the redzone, but Blount has already helped.
The Bucs have a very underrated OLine, lead by LT Donald Penn. The Bengals have done a decent job against the run this season, even versus Cleveland, but it's based on a team pursuit concept. This was exploited by cut back running teams in the early games, and in the misdirection passing game by Cleveland. The Bengals are also struggling to get pressure from the front without blitzing, so I'd fully expect them to bring a lot of heat against Tampa. Antwan Odom just doesn't beat better LT's, so more has to come from him and Michael Johnson in relief. Cleveland caught the Bengals in favorable personnel matchups last week because they were always a threat to run. One big example being the touchdown to TE Evan Moore over Chris Crocker in one on one coverage. Tampa will try to do the same. Crocker especially, must play a better game.
Cleveland and New England's TE's had big days versus the Bengals, and "the soldier" TE Kellen Winslow will be looking to keep that trend going. Dhani Jones, already iffy in pass coverage, has a hammy injury, so it'll be interesting to see how much he goes. Both he, Keith Rivers, and S Chris Crocker were picked on in coverage last week, so expect Freeman to be looking at these matchups. The Bucs also throw to the fullback Earnest Graham, but this again is most effective out of play action. Limit the run, you limit the offense.
The Bucs wideouts are very young, but talented. Lead by WR Mike Williams, this group can make some plays both deep and short with the ability to run. I like Williams a lot, especially if JJoe isn't going to go with his sore arm. If JJoe is out, Morgan Trent will have to play much better on the outside than he did against Cleveland where he was beaten repeatedly by Chancy Stuckey at very inopportune times.
Freeman is a bigger, stronger version of Seneca Wallace and can beat you running or throwing. He will have a run or two in this game that will move the chains, but gap discipline by the rushers will help to limit this. He's also a tough guy to sack, so it'll be very interesting to see how the rusher do against him. He is young though, and can be rattled. Just like last week, there will be just as many bad plays as good ones. The Bengals must continue to be opportunistic with turnovers when they get the chance. Get back to winning the turnover battle, and more wins will follow.
The defensive penalties must get cleaned up. Even though I have to say they got absolutely screwed on the holding call, the pass interference call, and the personal foul on Chinny, they still got called and they cost the team dearly. Lining up offsides is freaking stupid. Look at the goddamned ball!
Defensively, the Bengals will probably be missing Fanene, Roy Williams (which hurts in run support), and possibly Pat Sims. I expect DJones and JJoe to go, but for how long is another story.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They have to figure out a way to get more touchdowns, this is getting ridiculous. Even though the scored 2 against Cleveland, one was a fluky bomb to TO and the other they were bailed out by a personal foul call or they'd have settled for another field goal. If the redzone offense doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season. 3rd down conversion rates and scoring are the two biggest differences statistically between this team and the 2005 offense everyone compares them to. Gotta get more than 20 points a game against this schedule. They should've had 30 against that Cleveland defense.
Tampa has struggle to stop teams from moving the ball so far this season, and they haven't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop. A Charlie Batch lead Steeler team is the best offense they've seen, and even with a week to prepare, they should have plenty 'o problems against this offense. Tampa is giving up 335 yards per game, 141 on the ground without giving up a run over 40 yards. Translation=the Bengals should get the ground game going in this one with consistent positive gains. Move the chains boys.
I fully expect a heavy dose of Benson. The Bucs are still a Tampa 2 team, and will play more like Carolina than Cleveland, trying not to give up any big plays. It's critical against any Tampa 2 team, even a marginal one, that the offense stay methodical and play clean. These are two things the Bengals don't do consistently. Establishing a run game against a team that threw basically their whole draft at the defensive front is key to not only winning this game, but getting back to the identity this teams wants to have. Power running team with a vertical pass offense.
But the Bengals have had their problems running it, at least against base defenses. I don't want to hear about how great they ran in no huddle last week. They were down two scores and they were running at 6 man fronts. You better be able to run against that. It's running against 7 and 8 in the box, especially in short yardage and the redzone, that must improve. This team is not getting consistent blocking, especially from the WRs, TEs and FB positions. Benson has also looked indecisive and inept when no hole is clear. Gotta get better, and this is a good opponent to do it against.
The passing game is looking better, but there's room for improvement here too. The secondary of the Bucs are the best unit on the defense, lead by Aqib Talib and Rhonde Barber. They will still have their hands full with the weapons the Bengals have, but it's up to #9 to make good decisions and good throws and to limit mistakes. This team is still having snap count problems, and protection miscues that should not be happening. Roland got blown up twice on one on one blocks, but that is going to happen. The other two sacks were avoidable, and so were the two fumbles. You cannot give bad teams points by giving them a short field. This Bengal offense is showing some great things on drives and then short circuiting themselves. I feel like a broken record, so I'll let that go.
Suffice it to say that the Bengals will move the ball on this team, I'm looking to see if they can cash in drives for touchdowns. That will be the key to the season, and could be huge for momentum going into the bye.
Teams-
The Bengals have to get more out of their return game, especially punts. The kicking game has been solid and the coverage teams have improved since the horrid start to the season. Getting a field goal blocked is unacceptable, and cannot happen again this season. Two field goals off turnovers and a blocked field goal basically cost the Bengals a win versus Cleveland. Bad teams will beat you if you help them to. The Bucs have solid teams, including a kicker who's perfect on the season and a returner in Michael Spurlock has a return touchdown.
Prediction-
The Bengals offense should overpower this defense, and if they do, they will take away what the Bucs want to do offensively. The Bengals cannot have a repeat of last week, and I don't think they will. Bengals win at home and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.
This week the Bengals welcome a young and somewhat up and coming Bucs team to the Jungle, in what I thought might be a trap game heading into the bye. With the loss to the Browns, I don't think focus is going to be the problem. The problem is, and I suppose always has been under coach Lewis, a lack of consistent execution in all phases that is holding a very talented Bengals team back. They've shown they have the ability to be amongst the better teams in the league in spots, but have not been able to avoid the mistakes that hold them back. They've beaten themselves in so many games over the last few years, it's beyond frustrating.
When the Bucs have the ball-
Offensively, the Bucs philosophy isn't that much different from the Browns. They'd prefer to establish the run game, dominate time of possession, and allow young QB Josh Feeman to pick you apart in spots. They don't want the entire game on his shoulders. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they've not been able to really get that ground game going like they'd hoped and have already added RB LeGarrette Blount off waivers to help Cadillac Williams and Kareem Huggins carry the load. Blount is the big power back, in the mold of what the Bengals just saw in Peyton Hillis, so it will be important for the offense to give this Bengal defense help. Score early and get the Bucs throwing. The Bucs have also struggled in the redzone, but Blount has already helped.
The Bucs have a very underrated OLine, lead by LT Donald Penn. The Bengals have done a decent job against the run this season, even versus Cleveland, but it's based on a team pursuit concept. This was exploited by cut back running teams in the early games, and in the misdirection passing game by Cleveland. The Bengals are also struggling to get pressure from the front without blitzing, so I'd fully expect them to bring a lot of heat against Tampa. Antwan Odom just doesn't beat better LT's, so more has to come from him and Michael Johnson in relief. Cleveland caught the Bengals in favorable personnel matchups last week because they were always a threat to run. One big example being the touchdown to TE Evan Moore over Chris Crocker in one on one coverage. Tampa will try to do the same. Crocker especially, must play a better game.
Cleveland and New England's TE's had big days versus the Bengals, and "the soldier" TE Kellen Winslow will be looking to keep that trend going. Dhani Jones, already iffy in pass coverage, has a hammy injury, so it'll be interesting to see how much he goes. Both he, Keith Rivers, and S Chris Crocker were picked on in coverage last week, so expect Freeman to be looking at these matchups. The Bucs also throw to the fullback Earnest Graham, but this again is most effective out of play action. Limit the run, you limit the offense.
The Bucs wideouts are very young, but talented. Lead by WR Mike Williams, this group can make some plays both deep and short with the ability to run. I like Williams a lot, especially if JJoe isn't going to go with his sore arm. If JJoe is out, Morgan Trent will have to play much better on the outside than he did against Cleveland where he was beaten repeatedly by Chancy Stuckey at very inopportune times.
Freeman is a bigger, stronger version of Seneca Wallace and can beat you running or throwing. He will have a run or two in this game that will move the chains, but gap discipline by the rushers will help to limit this. He's also a tough guy to sack, so it'll be very interesting to see how the rusher do against him. He is young though, and can be rattled. Just like last week, there will be just as many bad plays as good ones. The Bengals must continue to be opportunistic with turnovers when they get the chance. Get back to winning the turnover battle, and more wins will follow.
The defensive penalties must get cleaned up. Even though I have to say they got absolutely screwed on the holding call, the pass interference call, and the personal foul on Chinny, they still got called and they cost the team dearly. Lining up offsides is freaking stupid. Look at the goddamned ball!
Defensively, the Bengals will probably be missing Fanene, Roy Williams (which hurts in run support), and possibly Pat Sims. I expect DJones and JJoe to go, but for how long is another story.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They have to figure out a way to get more touchdowns, this is getting ridiculous. Even though the scored 2 against Cleveland, one was a fluky bomb to TO and the other they were bailed out by a personal foul call or they'd have settled for another field goal. If the redzone offense doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season. 3rd down conversion rates and scoring are the two biggest differences statistically between this team and the 2005 offense everyone compares them to. Gotta get more than 20 points a game against this schedule. They should've had 30 against that Cleveland defense.
Tampa has struggle to stop teams from moving the ball so far this season, and they haven't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop. A Charlie Batch lead Steeler team is the best offense they've seen, and even with a week to prepare, they should have plenty 'o problems against this offense. Tampa is giving up 335 yards per game, 141 on the ground without giving up a run over 40 yards. Translation=the Bengals should get the ground game going in this one with consistent positive gains. Move the chains boys.
I fully expect a heavy dose of Benson. The Bucs are still a Tampa 2 team, and will play more like Carolina than Cleveland, trying not to give up any big plays. It's critical against any Tampa 2 team, even a marginal one, that the offense stay methodical and play clean. These are two things the Bengals don't do consistently. Establishing a run game against a team that threw basically their whole draft at the defensive front is key to not only winning this game, but getting back to the identity this teams wants to have. Power running team with a vertical pass offense.
But the Bengals have had their problems running it, at least against base defenses. I don't want to hear about how great they ran in no huddle last week. They were down two scores and they were running at 6 man fronts. You better be able to run against that. It's running against 7 and 8 in the box, especially in short yardage and the redzone, that must improve. This team is not getting consistent blocking, especially from the WRs, TEs and FB positions. Benson has also looked indecisive and inept when no hole is clear. Gotta get better, and this is a good opponent to do it against.
The passing game is looking better, but there's room for improvement here too. The secondary of the Bucs are the best unit on the defense, lead by Aqib Talib and Rhonde Barber. They will still have their hands full with the weapons the Bengals have, but it's up to #9 to make good decisions and good throws and to limit mistakes. This team is still having snap count problems, and protection miscues that should not be happening. Roland got blown up twice on one on one blocks, but that is going to happen. The other two sacks were avoidable, and so were the two fumbles. You cannot give bad teams points by giving them a short field. This Bengal offense is showing some great things on drives and then short circuiting themselves. I feel like a broken record, so I'll let that go.
Suffice it to say that the Bengals will move the ball on this team, I'm looking to see if they can cash in drives for touchdowns. That will be the key to the season, and could be huge for momentum going into the bye.
Teams-
The Bengals have to get more out of their return game, especially punts. The kicking game has been solid and the coverage teams have improved since the horrid start to the season. Getting a field goal blocked is unacceptable, and cannot happen again this season. Two field goals off turnovers and a blocked field goal basically cost the Bengals a win versus Cleveland. Bad teams will beat you if you help them to. The Bucs have solid teams, including a kicker who's perfect on the season and a returner in Michael Spurlock has a return touchdown.
Prediction-
The Bengals offense should overpower this defense, and if they do, they will take away what the Bucs want to do offensively. The Bengals cannot have a repeat of last week, and I don't think they will. Bengals win at home and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Bengals v. Browns-Week Four
Well, if you listen to local and national media, this might be the worst 2-1 team of all-time! Carson is done, the storm clouds are closing in, and a particularly pesky 0-3 Cleveland team is next up for the guys in stripes. Lots of national talking heads either have or will call for the upset this week, and maybe they're right. (You'll have to wait a bit to find out what I think).
When Cleveland has the ball-
The will want to run it with Peyton Hillis the way they did last week in Baltimore. To the tune of over 140 rush yards, and 180 total yards by the big bruising tailback. I said after Mangini's first draft, (you know, the one where they passed on a frachise QB in Mark Sanchez and a dynamic pass rusher like Brian Orakpo to draft a Center), that it was clear this team was going to be a ball-control offense. Even with West Coast guru Mike Holmgren hovering above, this team is going to be run first and then try to hit you over the top with play action. Regardless of Quarterback.
I think Seneca Wallace will again get the start for injured Jake "the Human Turnover" Delhomme, but it could be either or both that get time this week. Wallace is more mobile, but is not as good as distributing to all potential receivers or reading through multiple progressions. Last week he barely threw to WR's and stared down the right side of the field most of the game. Dangerous behavior against an opportunistic Bengal secondary that is getting Adam Jones back this week. Delhomme for his part may be better at distribution, but he's a static target with a bad ankle, and just can't help but give you an interception or two. I can't imagine the Browns will go with Delhomme against this Bengals pass rush. Yes, the Bengals only have 2 sacks, but anyone who's watched this team for 5 minutes can see they have an active rush.
The strength of this Browns team is the offensive line, with names like Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack leading the way. The right side has historically been an issue for this team, primarily in pass protection (sound familiar?). RT John St. Clair injured an ankle in the first quarter of the Baltimore game, so that would the side to keep an eye on this Sunday.
The RB's are solid with Hillis, a straight ahead power back, and scat back Jerome Harrison the featured weapons. Both Harrison and backup James Davis are nicked up, so it will be 20-30 touches for Hillis if I'm a betting man. The best way to nullify the run game of the Browns will be to score points on them early and make them throw. So far, no one's been able to do that. The Bengals have a very aggressive, pursuit based run defense which sets itself up for big cutback runs. The question is whether Hillis can do what Ray Rice and Deangelo Williams have done to this defense already? I have my doubts. I'm sure there will be a few good runs Sunday, but I don't expect them to put up the numbers they did against Baltimore. I'll say 100 yards rushing and a TD. As long as the Bengals make them earn those yards and not give up easy big ones, I'm okay with those totals. Hillis has also put the ball on the ground a couple of times, and the Bengals have forced some fumbles, so there may be opportunities.
The WR's and TE's for the Browns are very marginal, and they barely throw to the outside guys. Mohammed Massaquoi has had big games against the Bengals, and they must make him a factor if they want to keep the defense off big play threat Josh Cribbs. The Browns do have 4 pass plays of over 40 yards, so the big play must be respected, but much of that is based off the run game and getting a favorable matchup. I have a ton of faith in the Bengals corners and S Chris Crocker to limit this exposure.
Turnovers are especially key for the Browns offense. This team has had a 4th quarter lead in every game this year! Turnovers, especially in key moments, have been their downfall. They played a clean game against Baltimore and nearly won. If the Browns can win the turnover battle, they can make this very interesting. If they don't, they have no shot.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals had a lot of problems with the Browns defense last year in both meetings, and this defense has been pretty tough so far in 2010. The defense is a huge reason they've had the lead late in each game, and a dropped pick-six interception early against Baltimore probably was the difference in that game. This is not an elite defense by any means, but they are solid, and I've really been impressed with the effort and intensity they bring each week. The problem this week is that the entire defensive front is Questionable for a defense that's struggled to get a pass rush without the blitz.
While the 2010 Bengal offense is not as "ground and pound" oriented as they were in 2009, I'm sure the Bengals will want to establish the run game early in this one. Especially if Shaun Rodgers can't go for the Browns, they will want to push the defensive front around and force safety help in the box. The Bengals have not yet had a 20 yard run and have only 1 pass play over 40 yards, so getting the run game going to open up play action is the best case scenario. Cedric Benson and the Oline got into a nice rhythm against Carolina, and I'm sure they'll want to keep that going. The Oline has struggled to find consistency in pass protection, so getting them firing out into some good run blocks might give them more confidence. Either way, they have to avoid the pre-snap penalties, especially in the red zone. 3 red zone penalties last week cost them at least 5 points, and that's just not acceptable. The coaches mentioned reviewing the personnel on the line this week, so don't be surprised to see new starters at RT and/or LG. Last week Fatty McManBoobs wasn't active, and Anthony Collins got plenty of work. Keep an eye out.
The run game has yet to get a 20 yard run, only has 2 TD's and is only averaging 3.2 per carry. Why? One reason is that the WR's aren't blocking like they did last year. You can say a lot of negative things about Vern Coles, but he was a tenacious blocker who brought some real attitude to blocking downfield. I also think that while Gresham has been great in the pass game, he's struggled in run blocking. I want him out there, but it's easy to see that he's not throwing blocks like Dan Coats threw early in the season last year. (See Farrior, James).
Much has been made, mostly unfair, about the struggles of Carson Palmer to get back to 2005 form. It's not a fair comparison. The 2005 team had arguably 9-10 pro-bowl caliber players on that offense, a young Chris Henry, and Chris Perry who caught 51 passes. That was a ridiculously talented team that had played together for two years. This offense is very much a work in progress with new guys in several key spots. Now that said, is Carson playing great? No. Is it all his fault? Absolutely not.
Let's take a couple of plays from the Carolina game: The first interception came on a mix up on the route between Carson and Chad. The near interception to Gamble was a bad decision by Carson where he pumped and decided to throw a dangerous pass late. Carson then plain overthrew TO on a post that was nearly picked. Carson would've had a TD to TO down the seam on the second interception, but the pocket totally collapsed and he was hit as he threw. Jermaine Gresham fell down on his slant route on the next near pick, and finally Carson made a bad decision to force a ball into Chad with zone coverage all around and a LB underneath. So it's a combination of bad routes, bad decisions, bad protection, and bad throws. Everyone can do better and they know it.
Actually I think they are trying too hard to make it work, Carson in particular. Look at the breakdown of passes. To TO and Chad, Carson was 8 for 21 with 2 picks. To the inside receivers Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham, Carson was 8 for 11 and they got a big PI call that lead to the first TD. To the backs, Leonard and Benson, Carson was 3 for 5 including a really nice PA TD pass to Benson. I think he's trying way too hard to get 85 and 81 involved. Case in point, on a 3rd and 1 in the 2nd quarter vs. Carolina, Carson forced a throw into Chad on a wide slant route where the pass had to go 10-15 yards and was low and behind for an incompletion. On that play, both Shipley and Leonard were wide open over the middle and both could've had the first down on a 5 yard pass. That has to be a better read.
The offense has had some nice drives this year, and it looks like they are right on the verge of really putting this thing together. Then they make a mistake and end up in a punt or a turnover or a field goal instead of a touchdown. Everyone can get better, but it needs to come in the flow of the game and in the structure of the offensive plan. This is not an engine that needs an overhaul, it's just still in the break-in period. I have confidence that this team is much more talented than last year and they will start to prove it....soon.
So back to Cleveland. CB Eric Wright had one of his worst games as a pro where he was beaten for 3 TD's by Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin. CB's are supposed to have short memories, but if Chad or TO can beat this guy early, they'll be in his head all game. The Browns only dress 3 corners, so I think it's important for the Bengals to use their depth to wear out this team. Either way, they're going to have to be better on 3rd down. 32% conversion rate isn't nearly good enough.
Cleveland D Coordinator Rob Ryan loves to blitz, and his best guys are OLB's Matt Roth and Marcus Bernard. They will come primarily from the offensive right, meaning whoever is playing RT and RG Bobbie Williams will have to play better than they did against Carolina. When the Browns blitz, Carson needs to find the open guy and not force it into the outside guys. We need a clean game from #9 because the best players for the Browns are in the secondary.
Teams-
This game puts two of the better special teams units on display. Josh Cribbs is the best returner in the business and P Kevin Huber will have to continue his excellent punting from last week and keep the ball away. K Mike Nugent has been incredible on field goal attempts this year, but his kickoffs may be the most important kicks this week. You can't give the Browns anything extra in the return game, and you absolutely can't give them points.
The returners for the Bengals weren't great against Carolina, but they too are a threat on kicks and punts. The Browns have solid coverage teams, so anything here is a bonus.
Prediction-
A lot of people are chirping about this being an upset, but I'm not buying. While it may be close and it may be ugly, the Bengals are getting accustomed to playing games this way. And they're pretty accustomed to beating the Browns. I think the Bengals take care of business and get to 3-1 going into Week 5 vs. Tampa. All of these games before the bye are big because the road gets really bumpy after that, and a divisional game carries extra weight. The national pundits have not had a good feel for this team over the last couple of years, and when the majority are picking against them, I feel pretty confident about my pick. So far I'm 3-0 and I see 4-0 in the not too distant future. Who Dey.
When Cleveland has the ball-
The will want to run it with Peyton Hillis the way they did last week in Baltimore. To the tune of over 140 rush yards, and 180 total yards by the big bruising tailback. I said after Mangini's first draft, (you know, the one where they passed on a frachise QB in Mark Sanchez and a dynamic pass rusher like Brian Orakpo to draft a Center), that it was clear this team was going to be a ball-control offense. Even with West Coast guru Mike Holmgren hovering above, this team is going to be run first and then try to hit you over the top with play action. Regardless of Quarterback.
I think Seneca Wallace will again get the start for injured Jake "the Human Turnover" Delhomme, but it could be either or both that get time this week. Wallace is more mobile, but is not as good as distributing to all potential receivers or reading through multiple progressions. Last week he barely threw to WR's and stared down the right side of the field most of the game. Dangerous behavior against an opportunistic Bengal secondary that is getting Adam Jones back this week. Delhomme for his part may be better at distribution, but he's a static target with a bad ankle, and just can't help but give you an interception or two. I can't imagine the Browns will go with Delhomme against this Bengals pass rush. Yes, the Bengals only have 2 sacks, but anyone who's watched this team for 5 minutes can see they have an active rush.
The strength of this Browns team is the offensive line, with names like Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack leading the way. The right side has historically been an issue for this team, primarily in pass protection (sound familiar?). RT John St. Clair injured an ankle in the first quarter of the Baltimore game, so that would the side to keep an eye on this Sunday.
The RB's are solid with Hillis, a straight ahead power back, and scat back Jerome Harrison the featured weapons. Both Harrison and backup James Davis are nicked up, so it will be 20-30 touches for Hillis if I'm a betting man. The best way to nullify the run game of the Browns will be to score points on them early and make them throw. So far, no one's been able to do that. The Bengals have a very aggressive, pursuit based run defense which sets itself up for big cutback runs. The question is whether Hillis can do what Ray Rice and Deangelo Williams have done to this defense already? I have my doubts. I'm sure there will be a few good runs Sunday, but I don't expect them to put up the numbers they did against Baltimore. I'll say 100 yards rushing and a TD. As long as the Bengals make them earn those yards and not give up easy big ones, I'm okay with those totals. Hillis has also put the ball on the ground a couple of times, and the Bengals have forced some fumbles, so there may be opportunities.
The WR's and TE's for the Browns are very marginal, and they barely throw to the outside guys. Mohammed Massaquoi has had big games against the Bengals, and they must make him a factor if they want to keep the defense off big play threat Josh Cribbs. The Browns do have 4 pass plays of over 40 yards, so the big play must be respected, but much of that is based off the run game and getting a favorable matchup. I have a ton of faith in the Bengals corners and S Chris Crocker to limit this exposure.
Turnovers are especially key for the Browns offense. This team has had a 4th quarter lead in every game this year! Turnovers, especially in key moments, have been their downfall. They played a clean game against Baltimore and nearly won. If the Browns can win the turnover battle, they can make this very interesting. If they don't, they have no shot.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals had a lot of problems with the Browns defense last year in both meetings, and this defense has been pretty tough so far in 2010. The defense is a huge reason they've had the lead late in each game, and a dropped pick-six interception early against Baltimore probably was the difference in that game. This is not an elite defense by any means, but they are solid, and I've really been impressed with the effort and intensity they bring each week. The problem this week is that the entire defensive front is Questionable for a defense that's struggled to get a pass rush without the blitz.
While the 2010 Bengal offense is not as "ground and pound" oriented as they were in 2009, I'm sure the Bengals will want to establish the run game early in this one. Especially if Shaun Rodgers can't go for the Browns, they will want to push the defensive front around and force safety help in the box. The Bengals have not yet had a 20 yard run and have only 1 pass play over 40 yards, so getting the run game going to open up play action is the best case scenario. Cedric Benson and the Oline got into a nice rhythm against Carolina, and I'm sure they'll want to keep that going. The Oline has struggled to find consistency in pass protection, so getting them firing out into some good run blocks might give them more confidence. Either way, they have to avoid the pre-snap penalties, especially in the red zone. 3 red zone penalties last week cost them at least 5 points, and that's just not acceptable. The coaches mentioned reviewing the personnel on the line this week, so don't be surprised to see new starters at RT and/or LG. Last week Fatty McManBoobs wasn't active, and Anthony Collins got plenty of work. Keep an eye out.
The run game has yet to get a 20 yard run, only has 2 TD's and is only averaging 3.2 per carry. Why? One reason is that the WR's aren't blocking like they did last year. You can say a lot of negative things about Vern Coles, but he was a tenacious blocker who brought some real attitude to blocking downfield. I also think that while Gresham has been great in the pass game, he's struggled in run blocking. I want him out there, but it's easy to see that he's not throwing blocks like Dan Coats threw early in the season last year. (See Farrior, James).
Much has been made, mostly unfair, about the struggles of Carson Palmer to get back to 2005 form. It's not a fair comparison. The 2005 team had arguably 9-10 pro-bowl caliber players on that offense, a young Chris Henry, and Chris Perry who caught 51 passes. That was a ridiculously talented team that had played together for two years. This offense is very much a work in progress with new guys in several key spots. Now that said, is Carson playing great? No. Is it all his fault? Absolutely not.
Let's take a couple of plays from the Carolina game: The first interception came on a mix up on the route between Carson and Chad. The near interception to Gamble was a bad decision by Carson where he pumped and decided to throw a dangerous pass late. Carson then plain overthrew TO on a post that was nearly picked. Carson would've had a TD to TO down the seam on the second interception, but the pocket totally collapsed and he was hit as he threw. Jermaine Gresham fell down on his slant route on the next near pick, and finally Carson made a bad decision to force a ball into Chad with zone coverage all around and a LB underneath. So it's a combination of bad routes, bad decisions, bad protection, and bad throws. Everyone can do better and they know it.
Actually I think they are trying too hard to make it work, Carson in particular. Look at the breakdown of passes. To TO and Chad, Carson was 8 for 21 with 2 picks. To the inside receivers Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham, Carson was 8 for 11 and they got a big PI call that lead to the first TD. To the backs, Leonard and Benson, Carson was 3 for 5 including a really nice PA TD pass to Benson. I think he's trying way too hard to get 85 and 81 involved. Case in point, on a 3rd and 1 in the 2nd quarter vs. Carolina, Carson forced a throw into Chad on a wide slant route where the pass had to go 10-15 yards and was low and behind for an incompletion. On that play, both Shipley and Leonard were wide open over the middle and both could've had the first down on a 5 yard pass. That has to be a better read.
The offense has had some nice drives this year, and it looks like they are right on the verge of really putting this thing together. Then they make a mistake and end up in a punt or a turnover or a field goal instead of a touchdown. Everyone can get better, but it needs to come in the flow of the game and in the structure of the offensive plan. This is not an engine that needs an overhaul, it's just still in the break-in period. I have confidence that this team is much more talented than last year and they will start to prove it....soon.
So back to Cleveland. CB Eric Wright had one of his worst games as a pro where he was beaten for 3 TD's by Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin. CB's are supposed to have short memories, but if Chad or TO can beat this guy early, they'll be in his head all game. The Browns only dress 3 corners, so I think it's important for the Bengals to use their depth to wear out this team. Either way, they're going to have to be better on 3rd down. 32% conversion rate isn't nearly good enough.
Cleveland D Coordinator Rob Ryan loves to blitz, and his best guys are OLB's Matt Roth and Marcus Bernard. They will come primarily from the offensive right, meaning whoever is playing RT and RG Bobbie Williams will have to play better than they did against Carolina. When the Browns blitz, Carson needs to find the open guy and not force it into the outside guys. We need a clean game from #9 because the best players for the Browns are in the secondary.
Teams-
This game puts two of the better special teams units on display. Josh Cribbs is the best returner in the business and P Kevin Huber will have to continue his excellent punting from last week and keep the ball away. K Mike Nugent has been incredible on field goal attempts this year, but his kickoffs may be the most important kicks this week. You can't give the Browns anything extra in the return game, and you absolutely can't give them points.
The returners for the Bengals weren't great against Carolina, but they too are a threat on kicks and punts. The Browns have solid coverage teams, so anything here is a bonus.
Prediction-
A lot of people are chirping about this being an upset, but I'm not buying. While it may be close and it may be ugly, the Bengals are getting accustomed to playing games this way. And they're pretty accustomed to beating the Browns. I think the Bengals take care of business and get to 3-1 going into Week 5 vs. Tampa. All of these games before the bye are big because the road gets really bumpy after that, and a divisional game carries extra weight. The national pundits have not had a good feel for this team over the last couple of years, and when the majority are picking against them, I feel pretty confident about my pick. So far I'm 3-0 and I see 4-0 in the not too distant future. Who Dey.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Bengals v. Panthers-Week Three
So the Bengals are back on the right side of things after a tough, sloppy, and ugly win over division rival Baltimore. Yeah, they got some help from the refs, like the first game in Baltimore last year, but a win is a win. Ray Lewis should spend more time bitching at his offense instead of the refs, because for the third game in a row Joe Flacco couldn't figure out what the Bengals were doing defensively. One big thing they did was pressure. All game long. And it lead to 4 picks. Game over.
As bad as the D looked against New England, they looked as good against Baltimore. Sure, they gave up some plays and missed some tackles, but all in all a very good performance. And now they get the first of 2 really crappy teams with QB issues, including a Carolina team that's going with a first time starter in Jimmy Claussen. This defense should be licking their chops.
When Carolina has the ball-
They are going to face a ton of guys in the box. Carolina is as run-first as it gets, and you would be too if you had DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart, either of whom would start for the Bengals. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they can't pass, and if you can't pass, eventually teams will bring enough guys down to stop the run. Yes, they have WR Steve Smith, and he is still playing at a very high level. But as we saw last year when the Bengals had Chad (Johnson) and no one else, eventually teams roll coverage and make you go elsewhere. Dwayne Jarrett, Brandon Lafell and a cast of hot garbage have done nothing to help. No deep threats=8-9 Bengals in the box.
The best the Panthers can hope for is that this aggressive, pursuit based defense can open themselves up for some cutback runs. Much like Ray Rice showed a couple of times last week, if you can cut back and break a tackle, it's off to the races. Both Stewart and Williams have better top end speed than Rice and could break one. Missed tackles are the only way this defense allows ANYTHING to this very average offense. (Same is true of the passing game, where both of Steve Smith's TD's were on mid range passes broken by his dynamic RAC ability).
While I like Jimmy Claussen, this is a tough matchup for his debut. The Bengals have a very good secondary (even if Don't Call Me Pacman doesn't play), and while they only have one sack, this is a pass rush that consistently got to Joe Flacco. Let's see, they've played Tom Brady and Joe Flacco and now they get a rookie with little skill position help and a beat up offensive line. Yeah, I see big problems for the Panthers. The kid's going to have to play out of his mind to give them a shot and I just don't see him getting out of this one without at least 2 turnovers.
The formerly dominant offensive line for Carolina has not been so so far this season. They will have their hands full with an active Bengals front, especially on pass downs. Most impressive about the Baltimore game was how many different guys contributed to the rush. Odom, Geathers, Tank, Peko, Rucker, Geno Atkins, and even Pat Sims ALL made plays. If Carolina can't make some hay on first down, they are in deep trouble in second and third and long. Outside Smith, only TE Donta Rosario is consistent, though he is considered more of a possession guy than a big play guy. (He has had some bigger plays in the seam and is a big target). J Stewart and Mike Goodson are the pass catchers in this offense out of the backfield. For some unknown reason, they hardly throw to D Williams. Although they run the same basic plays for both Stewart and Williams, it's going to be a run if DW is in most of the time.
Injury wise the big ones are these: RT Jeff Otah (Carolina's best) is still not practicing and may miss another game. The Bengals will probably be without Adam Jones, Frostee Rucker and Jon Fanene. That would mean Trent Morgan, and probably Carlos Dunlap will play. This shouldn't even by a fair matchup even with the injuries.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They need to clean up these pre-snap penalties and stop killing their own drives. How many times have I bitched about Chad (Johnson) getting pre-snap penalties? And can we please get the freaking snap count down! That cost them a touchdown against Baltimore. AHHHHH! (While I'm on things I don't understand, why do the networks keep trying to give Jimmy Smits a series? Um, no one likes him. Random, I know). Ok, so clean it up will you. More like the New England game, less like the Ravens game.
So Ceddy Ced is pissing and moaning already about his lack of touches? Way to revert back to your Chicago days you overrated diva you. Funny how it was TO or even Chad that was supposed to be the first to start bitching...what's this, a dark horse takes that title? "We need to run it more" you say? Hard to do that when you're down 31-3 a-hole. And then you're playing Baltimore, and every time you get something going you get a penalty. Hard to run in 2nd and 8. Plus they're trying to get some flow to the passing game too, and I believe the feeling is that the running game is a constant they can always fall back on. If you can't pass in the NFL, you can't win, and this passing game is still not clicking. Shut up Cedric and be a freaking team guy for once. B Scott is better than you anyhow, he's just not big enough for 25 touches. Oh, and we'll be drafting your replacement next year.
But what about this matchup? How good, or bad, is this Carolina defense? Well, the short answer is I don't think anyone knows. They are not great, that we know. But I can't say they are bad either. They aren't as good as Baltimore or New England, that I will say. Against the run, they are only giving up 3 yards/carry and only 1TD but they've played the Giants and Bucs so far, and both teams lit them up through the air. To the tune of 5 TD's, including some long ones. They play aggressive, mostly man coverage, and that's a good thing for the Bengals. I'm confident the Bengals WR's and TE's can beat man coverage. It's zone they are still trying to get on the same page about. With young pass catchers, and TO trying to get the system down, I think that has more to do with Carson's struggles so far than anything else. (Yes, I'm an apologist, shut it). They will get there, but it takes reps Cedric. It takes reps. One thing's for sure: this team has a vertical threat back in it, and that will only help the run game.
The Oline has played okay so far this season, but it's time to start exerting it's will. Carolina has an athletic, but not particularly talented front that has had trouble pressuring the QB. Carolina, like Cincy, has 1 sack on the year, but it's from their MLB Dan Connor on a blitz. Same stat, different story. WLB Thomas Davis is still recovering from ACL surgery, so their best playmaker is new OLB Jon Beason. Beason moved positions this season and is still settling into that roll. Bottom line, the Bengals should be able to run against this front and have a decent day in protection.
The secondary is fast, and led by CB Chris Gamble. The athleticism is their, but the experience isn't as much. I think the mix of veteran WR's and young guys over the middle can take advantage this week. The LB's and Safeties in particular will find it tough to cover Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley. I think this defense can be exploited in a big way. Cincy's offense is relatively healthy and Carolina's best DLineman DE Tyler Brayton is nicked. Advantage Bengals.
Teams-
The Bengals have had some coverage problems and Carolina has a decent return game. Mike Goodson especially is good in the kick return game. Carolina also has a blocked punt already this season, so the Bengals can't give them one in that phase. The Nuge showed up huge against Baltimore, and I hate to even think how that game goes with last season's kicking and snapping. B Scott and Quan Cosby will again handle returns with A Jones out. B Scott came through again last week with a game changing return. I love this guy almost as much as Carson. Maybe more since I have his jersey. B Scott is the freaking man.
Prediction-
The Bengals put a solid beating on a team with bad ownership, a lame duck coach, a rookie QB and a general lack of talent. (The Bengals can relate to the bad ownership and lame duck coach parts). The Bengals showed once again against Baltimore that they are the more physical team, and Carolina (especially on D) is more movement and finesse. Let's show them some AFC North football and ground and pound and open up big play action passing opportunities. Vegas likes the Bengals by a paltry 3 or 3.5 depending on your book, but I like the good guys by closer to 10. Once again Vegas gives this team no respect. This Carolina team, and the Browns team they play next week, will both be picking in the top 5 come April. Time for a beat down.
As bad as the D looked against New England, they looked as good against Baltimore. Sure, they gave up some plays and missed some tackles, but all in all a very good performance. And now they get the first of 2 really crappy teams with QB issues, including a Carolina team that's going with a first time starter in Jimmy Claussen. This defense should be licking their chops.
When Carolina has the ball-
They are going to face a ton of guys in the box. Carolina is as run-first as it gets, and you would be too if you had DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart, either of whom would start for the Bengals. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they can't pass, and if you can't pass, eventually teams will bring enough guys down to stop the run. Yes, they have WR Steve Smith, and he is still playing at a very high level. But as we saw last year when the Bengals had Chad (Johnson) and no one else, eventually teams roll coverage and make you go elsewhere. Dwayne Jarrett, Brandon Lafell and a cast of hot garbage have done nothing to help. No deep threats=8-9 Bengals in the box.
The best the Panthers can hope for is that this aggressive, pursuit based defense can open themselves up for some cutback runs. Much like Ray Rice showed a couple of times last week, if you can cut back and break a tackle, it's off to the races. Both Stewart and Williams have better top end speed than Rice and could break one. Missed tackles are the only way this defense allows ANYTHING to this very average offense. (Same is true of the passing game, where both of Steve Smith's TD's were on mid range passes broken by his dynamic RAC ability).
While I like Jimmy Claussen, this is a tough matchup for his debut. The Bengals have a very good secondary (even if Don't Call Me Pacman doesn't play), and while they only have one sack, this is a pass rush that consistently got to Joe Flacco. Let's see, they've played Tom Brady and Joe Flacco and now they get a rookie with little skill position help and a beat up offensive line. Yeah, I see big problems for the Panthers. The kid's going to have to play out of his mind to give them a shot and I just don't see him getting out of this one without at least 2 turnovers.
The formerly dominant offensive line for Carolina has not been so so far this season. They will have their hands full with an active Bengals front, especially on pass downs. Most impressive about the Baltimore game was how many different guys contributed to the rush. Odom, Geathers, Tank, Peko, Rucker, Geno Atkins, and even Pat Sims ALL made plays. If Carolina can't make some hay on first down, they are in deep trouble in second and third and long. Outside Smith, only TE Donta Rosario is consistent, though he is considered more of a possession guy than a big play guy. (He has had some bigger plays in the seam and is a big target). J Stewart and Mike Goodson are the pass catchers in this offense out of the backfield. For some unknown reason, they hardly throw to D Williams. Although they run the same basic plays for both Stewart and Williams, it's going to be a run if DW is in most of the time.
Injury wise the big ones are these: RT Jeff Otah (Carolina's best) is still not practicing and may miss another game. The Bengals will probably be without Adam Jones, Frostee Rucker and Jon Fanene. That would mean Trent Morgan, and probably Carlos Dunlap will play. This shouldn't even by a fair matchup even with the injuries.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They need to clean up these pre-snap penalties and stop killing their own drives. How many times have I bitched about Chad (Johnson) getting pre-snap penalties? And can we please get the freaking snap count down! That cost them a touchdown against Baltimore. AHHHHH! (While I'm on things I don't understand, why do the networks keep trying to give Jimmy Smits a series? Um, no one likes him. Random, I know). Ok, so clean it up will you. More like the New England game, less like the Ravens game.
So Ceddy Ced is pissing and moaning already about his lack of touches? Way to revert back to your Chicago days you overrated diva you. Funny how it was TO or even Chad that was supposed to be the first to start bitching...what's this, a dark horse takes that title? "We need to run it more" you say? Hard to do that when you're down 31-3 a-hole. And then you're playing Baltimore, and every time you get something going you get a penalty. Hard to run in 2nd and 8. Plus they're trying to get some flow to the passing game too, and I believe the feeling is that the running game is a constant they can always fall back on. If you can't pass in the NFL, you can't win, and this passing game is still not clicking. Shut up Cedric and be a freaking team guy for once. B Scott is better than you anyhow, he's just not big enough for 25 touches. Oh, and we'll be drafting your replacement next year.
But what about this matchup? How good, or bad, is this Carolina defense? Well, the short answer is I don't think anyone knows. They are not great, that we know. But I can't say they are bad either. They aren't as good as Baltimore or New England, that I will say. Against the run, they are only giving up 3 yards/carry and only 1TD but they've played the Giants and Bucs so far, and both teams lit them up through the air. To the tune of 5 TD's, including some long ones. They play aggressive, mostly man coverage, and that's a good thing for the Bengals. I'm confident the Bengals WR's and TE's can beat man coverage. It's zone they are still trying to get on the same page about. With young pass catchers, and TO trying to get the system down, I think that has more to do with Carson's struggles so far than anything else. (Yes, I'm an apologist, shut it). They will get there, but it takes reps Cedric. It takes reps. One thing's for sure: this team has a vertical threat back in it, and that will only help the run game.
The Oline has played okay so far this season, but it's time to start exerting it's will. Carolina has an athletic, but not particularly talented front that has had trouble pressuring the QB. Carolina, like Cincy, has 1 sack on the year, but it's from their MLB Dan Connor on a blitz. Same stat, different story. WLB Thomas Davis is still recovering from ACL surgery, so their best playmaker is new OLB Jon Beason. Beason moved positions this season and is still settling into that roll. Bottom line, the Bengals should be able to run against this front and have a decent day in protection.
The secondary is fast, and led by CB Chris Gamble. The athleticism is their, but the experience isn't as much. I think the mix of veteran WR's and young guys over the middle can take advantage this week. The LB's and Safeties in particular will find it tough to cover Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley. I think this defense can be exploited in a big way. Cincy's offense is relatively healthy and Carolina's best DLineman DE Tyler Brayton is nicked. Advantage Bengals.
Teams-
The Bengals have had some coverage problems and Carolina has a decent return game. Mike Goodson especially is good in the kick return game. Carolina also has a blocked punt already this season, so the Bengals can't give them one in that phase. The Nuge showed up huge against Baltimore, and I hate to even think how that game goes with last season's kicking and snapping. B Scott and Quan Cosby will again handle returns with A Jones out. B Scott came through again last week with a game changing return. I love this guy almost as much as Carson. Maybe more since I have his jersey. B Scott is the freaking man.
Prediction-
The Bengals put a solid beating on a team with bad ownership, a lame duck coach, a rookie QB and a general lack of talent. (The Bengals can relate to the bad ownership and lame duck coach parts). The Bengals showed once again against Baltimore that they are the more physical team, and Carolina (especially on D) is more movement and finesse. Let's show them some AFC North football and ground and pound and open up big play action passing opportunities. Vegas likes the Bengals by a paltry 3 or 3.5 depending on your book, but I like the good guys by closer to 10. Once again Vegas gives this team no respect. This Carolina team, and the Browns team they play next week, will both be picking in the top 5 come April. Time for a beat down.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Bengals v. Ravens-Week Two
Let me say this about game 1, it's game 1....of 16. And it's over. Enough said.
Seriously, not to minimize the beat down the Bengals took at the hands of a much better prepared New England team, but it has little bearing on this weeks game. There were good and bad things about the game, but I think it's much more valuable to look at the two games against Baltimore last year than it is to look at either the Pats game or the Jets-Ravens game. Football is about matchups week to week. Momentum only takes you to the kickoff. And fortunately for Cincinnati, they've matched up well against Baltimore with #9 at the helm. To the tune of 8-3 since Carson Palmer took over as the starting QB.
Both teams have improved since last season, so this should be a very entertaining game. And it's important because it's the first divisional game and the Bengals could be down 2 games to Baltimore right out of the gate with a loss.
When Baltimore has the ball-
Baltimore has to establish the run better than they did last year vs. the Bengals, and better than they did last week against the Jets. The Ravens ran it 17 and 18 times last year for 55 and 82 yards respectively. Yes, the Ravens added receivers and they should be better passing than last season, but this offense goes through Ray Rice and the running game first and foremost.
In both games last season, the Bengals dominated the line of scrimmage against the Ravens. Baltimore can't get bullied like that again this year. The Ravens were not able to move the Jets at all, but the Pats were able to get some runs on the Bengals. With a mix of power runs, draws and screens, they have to get Rice 25 touches. If they can't keep the defense honest, they will not be able to exploit coverage the way the Pats did.
So the Ravens have better receivers, huh? Well the Bengals have better coverage guys than last year too. They also have better coverage guys, as a unit, then the Jets do. The Ravens exploited one on one coverage by an overrated Antonio Cromartie and a rookie in Kyle Wilson. Have fun with Jonathan Joseph and Adam Jones on the outside and Leon Hall and Chris Crocker in the middle of the field. It won't be so easy to get big plays. Expect the Bengals to take the same approach as they did against New England, and make the offense earn points with methodical drives. The weakness of the Bengals defense is in the underneath coverage of the linebackers and run support safety. If you can get Todd Heap (who's nicked up already), TJ and Ray Rice moving around in that first level, the matchup favors the offense. Dhani Jones cannot cover, and I'm tired of saying it every week. If Flacco sees #57 chasing his guy, he should throw it there every time. But outside that, this is a much more difficult secondary to throw on.
The pass rush is a different story. While last year they outsacked the Ravens 6-2, the Bengals struggle to get consistent pressure. Tom Brady carved them up, and Flacco can do the same if given a half hour to throw. The left side of the Ravens line is very solid, but I do think the right side can be exploited. Plan on seeing a lot of Geno Atkins at DT. John Fanene is questionable with a lingering hamstring injury, so we may even see rookie Carlos Dunlap this week. No matter who is in, the pressure has to be better, and when they do blitz, guys need to know their coverage assignments. Blown coverages lead to big plays. You also can't lose contain with Flacco, who is an underrated runner. Remember his pro debut in 2008? Marvin Lewis does.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals are going to want to follow the blueprint from last year and run it right at this run stuffing defense. Amazingly, the Bengals dominated this vaunted front seven last year to the tune of 146 and 142 rushing yards in both games. They bullied the bullies all season long, and are going to look to take out some frustrations from the Pats game on this front. If the Ravens can't stop the run, they're dead meat because this pass offense is far more potent than it was last year. Especially in the red zone, this Bengals offense is diverse and talented at every spot. I know I can't wait for the Raven defenders to meet Jermaine Gresham. They are not going to like have to defend this guy twice a year.
Both Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott had flashes in the Pats game, and the Bengals should have Brian Leonard back for this game. Benson did have the fumble that led to a Pats score, and that can't happen. Chad also had two fumbles last year vs. the Ravens, trying to do too much in the open field, and that can't happen either. If the Bengals outrush the Ravens, they will win. The fact that they can now throw effectively out of run formations makes them even more of a threat.
Did you know Ed Reed is out for this game? Yeah, that's a pretty big deal. A pick six and two forced fumbles against the Bengals last year, and a general thorn in the side of any offense. He, like Troy Polamalu, makes a good defense great. The Ravens are thin at corner as it is, and the matchup of Bengals skill guys vs. Ravens secondary is big time in favor of the Bengals. The best way to negate the pass rush, besides running it well, is to send a lot of skilled guys out in patterns that consistently beat single coverage. Jordan Shipley and Gresham showed some serious potential last week at attacking the middle of a defense. Gresham especially, needs to continue to learn the pro game, and avoid mistakes like the pick six last week. I think he will, and I believe he's going to be the top pass catching tight end in this division by mid-season. Mark it down. The pass offense can light you up from short, medium, or long range if #9 is given time. For anyone still doubting Carson Palmer, I'm here to tell you, he's back. All the way back and then some. He had 2 bad throws out of 50 attempts against a Bill Belichick defense, including some unreal throws. No worries at all about him.
The biggest concern I have about this team's offense is consistent pass protection, especially from the right side. Dennis Roland is a liability in pass coverage and Andre Smith can't get on the field is passing situations. Bobbie Williams is not good enough to overcome the issues outside. The Ravens only managed 1 sack in each game last year, and will have to do better. Haloti Ngata will find that both Nate Livings and Evan Mathis are better than Jets LG Matt Slausson, who he beat like a drum Monday night. Terrell Suggs was MIA all of last year, and the next best pass rusher, Jarrett Johnson, may not go with a bad back. Sergio Kindle is still out after his unfortunate sleep walking accident, so this team is paper thin at OLB/rush DE. If they don't stop the run and/or pressure Palmer, the only hope is that the Bengals implode with penalties and mistakes. Not totally out of the realm of possibility.
The Bengals had one penalty against the Pats. Remarkable. The Jets are still getting penalties thrown on them. That was insane. The Ravens had more penalties for more yards than the Bengals in both games last year, including some devastating late defensive penalties. I hate to say it, but penalties could play a big role again this year.
Run game, turnovers, big plays, third downs and penalties are the keys. Standard stuff. The Bengals had a clear advantage in all these last year and it's why they pretty much dominated the Ravens twice.
Special teams-
Hopefully the coverage teams of the Bengals learned from the two bad returns, one of which was a TD of course, and get their act together this week. (They did improve after the TD). The great returns of the preseason didn't translate to week 1, and coach Harbaugh is a special teams guy, so we'll see if they can do anything more this week. I do predict we'll finally see the punt return team, which is a good thing. Speaking of punt returns, Tom Zibbycowski (spelling phonetically for fun) really stunk it up last week and will have a very short leash this week. Chris Carr is solid as the kick return guy.
The Nuge made his presence felt with a 50 yarder vs. New England, and it was amazing to see a good snap, hold, and kick from that distance. That's a real weapon. The were some nice punts from Huber too, and field position is always important in a game like this. For Baltimore, former Cowboy Billy Cundiff beat out hated Shayne Graham as the Ravens kicker. Cundiff is okay, but I'll take the Nuge.
Prediction-
Both games were low scoring last year, with the Bengals winning 17-14 (with the Baltimore scores coming on a pick six and a weird broken tackle by Ray Rice where Leon Hall didn't finish the play) and 17-7. The Ravens really struggled to score against this defense, and I do expect a much better Bengal effort this week. Both offenses are better than last year, but I favor the Bengals offense and special teams. I'll say 23-20 Bengals. The score could be off, but I'll be shocked if the Bengals lose and go down 0-2. Shocked. I'd honestly be less shocked if the Bengals blew them out than if they lose. Seriously. Okay, I'm out of homer Kool-Aid...gotta mix up some more. Hey Kool-Aid....(cue sound of Fat Andre Smith breaking through my wall wearing no shirt)
Seriously, not to minimize the beat down the Bengals took at the hands of a much better prepared New England team, but it has little bearing on this weeks game. There were good and bad things about the game, but I think it's much more valuable to look at the two games against Baltimore last year than it is to look at either the Pats game or the Jets-Ravens game. Football is about matchups week to week. Momentum only takes you to the kickoff. And fortunately for Cincinnati, they've matched up well against Baltimore with #9 at the helm. To the tune of 8-3 since Carson Palmer took over as the starting QB.
Both teams have improved since last season, so this should be a very entertaining game. And it's important because it's the first divisional game and the Bengals could be down 2 games to Baltimore right out of the gate with a loss.
When Baltimore has the ball-
Baltimore has to establish the run better than they did last year vs. the Bengals, and better than they did last week against the Jets. The Ravens ran it 17 and 18 times last year for 55 and 82 yards respectively. Yes, the Ravens added receivers and they should be better passing than last season, but this offense goes through Ray Rice and the running game first and foremost.
In both games last season, the Bengals dominated the line of scrimmage against the Ravens. Baltimore can't get bullied like that again this year. The Ravens were not able to move the Jets at all, but the Pats were able to get some runs on the Bengals. With a mix of power runs, draws and screens, they have to get Rice 25 touches. If they can't keep the defense honest, they will not be able to exploit coverage the way the Pats did.
So the Ravens have better receivers, huh? Well the Bengals have better coverage guys than last year too. They also have better coverage guys, as a unit, then the Jets do. The Ravens exploited one on one coverage by an overrated Antonio Cromartie and a rookie in Kyle Wilson. Have fun with Jonathan Joseph and Adam Jones on the outside and Leon Hall and Chris Crocker in the middle of the field. It won't be so easy to get big plays. Expect the Bengals to take the same approach as they did against New England, and make the offense earn points with methodical drives. The weakness of the Bengals defense is in the underneath coverage of the linebackers and run support safety. If you can get Todd Heap (who's nicked up already), TJ and Ray Rice moving around in that first level, the matchup favors the offense. Dhani Jones cannot cover, and I'm tired of saying it every week. If Flacco sees #57 chasing his guy, he should throw it there every time. But outside that, this is a much more difficult secondary to throw on.
The pass rush is a different story. While last year they outsacked the Ravens 6-2, the Bengals struggle to get consistent pressure. Tom Brady carved them up, and Flacco can do the same if given a half hour to throw. The left side of the Ravens line is very solid, but I do think the right side can be exploited. Plan on seeing a lot of Geno Atkins at DT. John Fanene is questionable with a lingering hamstring injury, so we may even see rookie Carlos Dunlap this week. No matter who is in, the pressure has to be better, and when they do blitz, guys need to know their coverage assignments. Blown coverages lead to big plays. You also can't lose contain with Flacco, who is an underrated runner. Remember his pro debut in 2008? Marvin Lewis does.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals are going to want to follow the blueprint from last year and run it right at this run stuffing defense. Amazingly, the Bengals dominated this vaunted front seven last year to the tune of 146 and 142 rushing yards in both games. They bullied the bullies all season long, and are going to look to take out some frustrations from the Pats game on this front. If the Ravens can't stop the run, they're dead meat because this pass offense is far more potent than it was last year. Especially in the red zone, this Bengals offense is diverse and talented at every spot. I know I can't wait for the Raven defenders to meet Jermaine Gresham. They are not going to like have to defend this guy twice a year.
Both Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott had flashes in the Pats game, and the Bengals should have Brian Leonard back for this game. Benson did have the fumble that led to a Pats score, and that can't happen. Chad also had two fumbles last year vs. the Ravens, trying to do too much in the open field, and that can't happen either. If the Bengals outrush the Ravens, they will win. The fact that they can now throw effectively out of run formations makes them even more of a threat.
Did you know Ed Reed is out for this game? Yeah, that's a pretty big deal. A pick six and two forced fumbles against the Bengals last year, and a general thorn in the side of any offense. He, like Troy Polamalu, makes a good defense great. The Ravens are thin at corner as it is, and the matchup of Bengals skill guys vs. Ravens secondary is big time in favor of the Bengals. The best way to negate the pass rush, besides running it well, is to send a lot of skilled guys out in patterns that consistently beat single coverage. Jordan Shipley and Gresham showed some serious potential last week at attacking the middle of a defense. Gresham especially, needs to continue to learn the pro game, and avoid mistakes like the pick six last week. I think he will, and I believe he's going to be the top pass catching tight end in this division by mid-season. Mark it down. The pass offense can light you up from short, medium, or long range if #9 is given time. For anyone still doubting Carson Palmer, I'm here to tell you, he's back. All the way back and then some. He had 2 bad throws out of 50 attempts against a Bill Belichick defense, including some unreal throws. No worries at all about him.
The biggest concern I have about this team's offense is consistent pass protection, especially from the right side. Dennis Roland is a liability in pass coverage and Andre Smith can't get on the field is passing situations. Bobbie Williams is not good enough to overcome the issues outside. The Ravens only managed 1 sack in each game last year, and will have to do better. Haloti Ngata will find that both Nate Livings and Evan Mathis are better than Jets LG Matt Slausson, who he beat like a drum Monday night. Terrell Suggs was MIA all of last year, and the next best pass rusher, Jarrett Johnson, may not go with a bad back. Sergio Kindle is still out after his unfortunate sleep walking accident, so this team is paper thin at OLB/rush DE. If they don't stop the run and/or pressure Palmer, the only hope is that the Bengals implode with penalties and mistakes. Not totally out of the realm of possibility.
The Bengals had one penalty against the Pats. Remarkable. The Jets are still getting penalties thrown on them. That was insane. The Ravens had more penalties for more yards than the Bengals in both games last year, including some devastating late defensive penalties. I hate to say it, but penalties could play a big role again this year.
Run game, turnovers, big plays, third downs and penalties are the keys. Standard stuff. The Bengals had a clear advantage in all these last year and it's why they pretty much dominated the Ravens twice.
Special teams-
Hopefully the coverage teams of the Bengals learned from the two bad returns, one of which was a TD of course, and get their act together this week. (They did improve after the TD). The great returns of the preseason didn't translate to week 1, and coach Harbaugh is a special teams guy, so we'll see if they can do anything more this week. I do predict we'll finally see the punt return team, which is a good thing. Speaking of punt returns, Tom Zibbycowski (spelling phonetically for fun) really stunk it up last week and will have a very short leash this week. Chris Carr is solid as the kick return guy.
The Nuge made his presence felt with a 50 yarder vs. New England, and it was amazing to see a good snap, hold, and kick from that distance. That's a real weapon. The were some nice punts from Huber too, and field position is always important in a game like this. For Baltimore, former Cowboy Billy Cundiff beat out hated Shayne Graham as the Ravens kicker. Cundiff is okay, but I'll take the Nuge.
Prediction-
Both games were low scoring last year, with the Bengals winning 17-14 (with the Baltimore scores coming on a pick six and a weird broken tackle by Ray Rice where Leon Hall didn't finish the play) and 17-7. The Ravens really struggled to score against this defense, and I do expect a much better Bengal effort this week. Both offenses are better than last year, but I favor the Bengals offense and special teams. I'll say 23-20 Bengals. The score could be off, but I'll be shocked if the Bengals lose and go down 0-2. Shocked. I'd honestly be less shocked if the Bengals blew them out than if they lose. Seriously. Okay, I'm out of homer Kool-Aid...gotta mix up some more. Hey Kool-Aid....(cue sound of Fat Andre Smith breaking through my wall wearing no shirt)
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Interesting link about the Patriots defense vs. the Bengals
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4683258/closer-look-at-defensive-wizardry
Nice breakdown of the formations and personnel the Pats used in the first half. Heard Vince Wilfork on the WEEI yesterday saying the Bengals did exactly what they expected from exactly the formations they expected. Awesome to get out schemed in the first game.
I love Marvin Lewis as a CEO, but I'm not a fan of his or his staff's gaming planning or in game adjustments.
Nice breakdown of the formations and personnel the Pats used in the first half. Heard Vince Wilfork on the WEEI yesterday saying the Bengals did exactly what they expected from exactly the formations they expected. Awesome to get out schemed in the first game.
I love Marvin Lewis as a CEO, but I'm not a fan of his or his staff's gaming planning or in game adjustments.
Monday, September 13, 2010
I hate being right....on this one.
Bengals offense sputtered, defense got no pressure, and special teams not only did help pick up the other units, but gave up a return touchdown. Add in a pick six, and the Bengals couldn't close within 14.
There were some silver linings, but the wounds are too fresh to go back over that now.....
There were some silver linings, but the wounds are too fresh to go back over that now.....
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Bengals v. Patriots-Week One
Nothing like starting the season out with a bang. The Bengals travel to Foxboro Sunday and match up with a Tom Brady led Patriots team that's beaten them the last two times they've played in the regular season. I have flashbacks of the last one in Cincy, when Justin Smith was mic'ed up saying that rushing Brady was like a 9-7 drill. That game, the Pats had their way running and throwing and the Bengals didn't get a hand on Brady. He's too good for that, so it's no surprise that getting some kind of pressure on Tom Terrific is the key to this game.
When the Pats have the ball-
We all know about Tom Brady. He's one of the top QB's in league, one of the top's in the history of the league. Aaron Rodgers said earlier this offseason that TB is THE best QB in the pocket, period. High praise from another elite QB, especially with guys like Manning and Brees to compare to. So Brady's good, so good that the Pats can beat with him throwing 25 times or 52 times. If you don't get in his face, and don't knock him around, you have next to no chance to beat this team. The Pats made the playoffs last year in spite of a lousy defense because of Brady.
Beyond Brady, the next names you automatically think of on this offense are Moss and Welker. Randy Moss is still one of the elite receivers in the NFL, and is perhaps the scariest deep threat in the game. Leon Hall, in base defense, will be on the outside and has struggled against bigger receivers (see Johnson, Andre and Calvin and Jackson, Vincent), and will certainly be the target for Moss and Brady. Safety help is a must, which one of the main reasons Welker has had what seems like 10,000 catches over the middle the last few years. All signs point to Welker being healthy after blowing out his ACL last season, and his matchup with Bengal defenders in the middle of the field is a concern. The Bengals, especially in base defense with D. Jones in the middle, have given up a lot of catches and yards in the center of the field the last two years. Brett Favre and the Vikings basically ate them up last year with backs and tight ends, and I've seen every team in the preseason go after the same area. (Did you see the Roscoe Parrish TD catch right in front of Dhani?). I love D. Jones but he doesn't have any speed, and teams know it.
Julian Edelman did a nice job filling in for the injured Welker last year, but has a foot injury of his own. He did practice Friday, so he may contribute as well, but the other receivers don't worry me. One interesting Bengal note is that starting RCB Leon Hall slides to the slot in nickel coverage, with Adam Jones moving to the outside. Not only is this a huge upgrade over Morgan Trent in the slot, it puts Jones in his more natural outside position. The Cowboys tried to use Jones in the slot a couple of years ago, and he was terrible. The Bengals coaching staff are putting guys in the best position to be successful.
The Pats got nothing out of the tight end position last year, so this year the entire unit is different. In are veteren Alge Crumpler, and rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Crumpler can't run anymore, but is a good run blocker and could still be a force in redzone. The rookies are both impressive, especially Gronkowski who is an all around beast. Expect plenty of two tight end sets, where the Pats are just as likely to throw as run. The linebackers and safety not on Moss' side will have to play well in coverage and guys have to come up to help tackle once the guys make the catch.
Bill Belichick is notorious for his running back by committee attitude, and this season is no different. Maroney, Taylor and Morris are the lead power backs, with Kevin Faulk returning as the pass catcher. None of the three lead backs is special, but they can all be effective if the offensive line is doing their part. Taylor is the only one that can really make a tackler miss, the others are more likely to try to run through a tackle as run around it. The Pats will go away from the run early if it isn't working, perhaps sooner than other teams will. Faulk is really an underrated player. With Moss, Welker and the rest attracting the attention of the defense, Faulk is often left one on one with a LB. His ability to extend drives was one of the most important reasons the Pats set all those offensive records in 2007.
The offensive line is not the 2007 Patriots offensive line however. Not only are they three years older (that's 21 in NFL years), but their best lineman LG Logan Mankins is holding out and will not play. RT Sebastian Vollmer had basically taken the LT position from Matt Light last season, and is the best active OLineman, but has switched to the right side because of Mankins' holdout and injury to Nick Kaczur. LT Matt Light, RG Stephen Neal and C Dan Koppen return but are no longer elite players, especially Light who has really struggled against speed rushers the last two years. LG Dan Connolly started three games last year and will be the least experienced of the group. I really see Antwan Odom and the other pass rushers on the defensive right as a key to this game. If they can beat Light, the Pats will have to leave a back or tight end in to help on that side, and that's one less receiver to worry about. The depth of the Bengals defense will have to be their best asset in this game, as they should be able to send wave after wave of fresh guys at this weakened line. If that happens, they have a very good chance to force Brady into turnovers. Michael Johnson and Rey Maualuga, I hope you guys wreak havoc Sunday, we'll need it. Unfortunately, preseason star DT Geno Atkins is nicked up and I don't know if he's going to go. He is a true pass rushing DT, and it's all hands on deck against Brady.
When the Bengals have the ball-
This isn't the Patriot Dynastic Defense of the Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, in fact, it isn't even close. The only hold over from those teams are NT Vince Wilfork and ROLB Tully Banta-Cain. Both of these guys are still good players (Banta-Cain led the team with 10 sacks), but outside of RMLB Jerod Mayo and FS Brandon Merriweather, this team is either lacking in talent or very young at the other spots. CB Leigh Bodden, the best cover guy on the team, is done for the year, so the secondary features three starters with one year or less of experience including rookie CB Devin McCourty. Talented, but inexperienced, and the Bengals must take advantage with the veteran receivers they have.
Carson Palmer is coming into his 8th season in the NFL, and has played against elite defenses with multiple schemes and looks twice each season in the division (except for the injury marred 2008 season), so whatever Bill Belichick game plans shouldn't be totally foreign. Besides, you can't game plan to overcome a lack of talent. If the Bengals don't shoot themselves in the foot, as they are more than prone to do, they should be able to light up this defense. The Pats have struggled to provide a consistent pass rush since they let go of Vrabel, so this sets up pretty well for Cincy.
Ceddy Ced Benson will again be a focal point of the offensive, and defensive, gameplanning. In the preseason, the Pats used both Wilfork and Gerard Warren (taking over for incumbent Ty Warren who's done for the year) at the NT. Surprisingly, teams were able to run at the right side effectively with either guy at the LDE position. With road graters Bobbie Williams, Dennis Roland, and Andre Smith on that side of the OLine, the Bengals should attack that side with impunity. Rookie LMLB Brandon Spikes will have to play very well to slow down the Bengals running attack. I assume slowing the run game has been Belichick's obsession all offseason, and he has the track record of taking away what you do best, so let's assume they can limit the run game.
The passing game of the Bengals should be dynamic unless they continue to stop themselves with penalties and miscues. Veteran receivers Chad (Johnson) and TO should be able to get open against Darius Butler and the young secondary of the Pats. There will be opportunities, and guys just have to make plays. TE Jermaine Gresham should be able to use his speed against slower Patriots LB's, especially Spikes if he is asked to cover. JG is a matchup problem for the safeties as well and should have a nice pro debut. Andre Caldwell is probably out with a groin injury, so Jordan Shipley will be making his first NFL start as well and will have a chance to shine right out of the gate. Bernard Scott will probably be the third down back with Brian Leonard out, and I love BScott however you get him the ball. He's good for at least one dynamic play a game. I love the matchup of the Bengals passing game vs. the Pats. Just avoid the stupid penalties.
The offensive line for the Bengals returns intact for 2010, with the only disappointment that Andre Smith has not established himself as the starter at RT. Last season, little was expected for this unit, but 2010 is different. Once again, this should be a physical run blocking unit, but I am concerned about the pass blocking of the right side. Dennis Roland especially was exposed at the end of 2009 and it's important that the pass blocking improve to give this offense the chance to put up big passing numbers. The Pats are not a good pass rushing team, but what rush they get comes from the offensive left. Andrew Whitworth is establishing himself as a Pro-Bowl caliber LT and I think he'll be up to stopping the likes of Tully Banta-Cain. The center of the line needs to take a page from the Saints-Vikings game on Thursday and push big Wilfork and Gerard Warren side to side, opening up cut back lanes. The implementation of a power zone blocking scheme and the statistical improvement of the Bengal run game in 2009 are no coincidence. Again, this is a favorable matchup for the Bengal offense. If they don't stop themselves.
Special teams-
The Bengals have the edge in the return and coverage games, and it's been a long time since they've looked this good on returns. Adam Jones especially looked fantastic in the preseason, and could be a big difference maker in this one.
The kicking game advantage goes to the Pats. Until I see it, I won't be able to shake the visions of last year's horrendous kicking.
Prediction-
I'd love to say the Bengals are going to win this game, especially considering how weak this Pats defense is, but I can't. I haven't seen a consistent enough pass rush out of this team, and I haven't seen them play a clean enough game offensively over the last year and change to state confidently that the Bengals will win. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Tom Brady throwing a late touchdown to beat the Bengals 27-23. Better luck next week hosting the Ravens.
When the Pats have the ball-
We all know about Tom Brady. He's one of the top QB's in league, one of the top's in the history of the league. Aaron Rodgers said earlier this offseason that TB is THE best QB in the pocket, period. High praise from another elite QB, especially with guys like Manning and Brees to compare to. So Brady's good, so good that the Pats can beat with him throwing 25 times or 52 times. If you don't get in his face, and don't knock him around, you have next to no chance to beat this team. The Pats made the playoffs last year in spite of a lousy defense because of Brady.
Beyond Brady, the next names you automatically think of on this offense are Moss and Welker. Randy Moss is still one of the elite receivers in the NFL, and is perhaps the scariest deep threat in the game. Leon Hall, in base defense, will be on the outside and has struggled against bigger receivers (see Johnson, Andre and Calvin and Jackson, Vincent), and will certainly be the target for Moss and Brady. Safety help is a must, which one of the main reasons Welker has had what seems like 10,000 catches over the middle the last few years. All signs point to Welker being healthy after blowing out his ACL last season, and his matchup with Bengal defenders in the middle of the field is a concern. The Bengals, especially in base defense with D. Jones in the middle, have given up a lot of catches and yards in the center of the field the last two years. Brett Favre and the Vikings basically ate them up last year with backs and tight ends, and I've seen every team in the preseason go after the same area. (Did you see the Roscoe Parrish TD catch right in front of Dhani?). I love D. Jones but he doesn't have any speed, and teams know it.
Julian Edelman did a nice job filling in for the injured Welker last year, but has a foot injury of his own. He did practice Friday, so he may contribute as well, but the other receivers don't worry me. One interesting Bengal note is that starting RCB Leon Hall slides to the slot in nickel coverage, with Adam Jones moving to the outside. Not only is this a huge upgrade over Morgan Trent in the slot, it puts Jones in his more natural outside position. The Cowboys tried to use Jones in the slot a couple of years ago, and he was terrible. The Bengals coaching staff are putting guys in the best position to be successful.
The Pats got nothing out of the tight end position last year, so this year the entire unit is different. In are veteren Alge Crumpler, and rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Crumpler can't run anymore, but is a good run blocker and could still be a force in redzone. The rookies are both impressive, especially Gronkowski who is an all around beast. Expect plenty of two tight end sets, where the Pats are just as likely to throw as run. The linebackers and safety not on Moss' side will have to play well in coverage and guys have to come up to help tackle once the guys make the catch.
Bill Belichick is notorious for his running back by committee attitude, and this season is no different. Maroney, Taylor and Morris are the lead power backs, with Kevin Faulk returning as the pass catcher. None of the three lead backs is special, but they can all be effective if the offensive line is doing their part. Taylor is the only one that can really make a tackler miss, the others are more likely to try to run through a tackle as run around it. The Pats will go away from the run early if it isn't working, perhaps sooner than other teams will. Faulk is really an underrated player. With Moss, Welker and the rest attracting the attention of the defense, Faulk is often left one on one with a LB. His ability to extend drives was one of the most important reasons the Pats set all those offensive records in 2007.
The offensive line is not the 2007 Patriots offensive line however. Not only are they three years older (that's 21 in NFL years), but their best lineman LG Logan Mankins is holding out and will not play. RT Sebastian Vollmer had basically taken the LT position from Matt Light last season, and is the best active OLineman, but has switched to the right side because of Mankins' holdout and injury to Nick Kaczur. LT Matt Light, RG Stephen Neal and C Dan Koppen return but are no longer elite players, especially Light who has really struggled against speed rushers the last two years. LG Dan Connolly started three games last year and will be the least experienced of the group. I really see Antwan Odom and the other pass rushers on the defensive right as a key to this game. If they can beat Light, the Pats will have to leave a back or tight end in to help on that side, and that's one less receiver to worry about. The depth of the Bengals defense will have to be their best asset in this game, as they should be able to send wave after wave of fresh guys at this weakened line. If that happens, they have a very good chance to force Brady into turnovers. Michael Johnson and Rey Maualuga, I hope you guys wreak havoc Sunday, we'll need it. Unfortunately, preseason star DT Geno Atkins is nicked up and I don't know if he's going to go. He is a true pass rushing DT, and it's all hands on deck against Brady.
When the Bengals have the ball-
This isn't the Patriot Dynastic Defense of the Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, in fact, it isn't even close. The only hold over from those teams are NT Vince Wilfork and ROLB Tully Banta-Cain. Both of these guys are still good players (Banta-Cain led the team with 10 sacks), but outside of RMLB Jerod Mayo and FS Brandon Merriweather, this team is either lacking in talent or very young at the other spots. CB Leigh Bodden, the best cover guy on the team, is done for the year, so the secondary features three starters with one year or less of experience including rookie CB Devin McCourty. Talented, but inexperienced, and the Bengals must take advantage with the veteran receivers they have.
Carson Palmer is coming into his 8th season in the NFL, and has played against elite defenses with multiple schemes and looks twice each season in the division (except for the injury marred 2008 season), so whatever Bill Belichick game plans shouldn't be totally foreign. Besides, you can't game plan to overcome a lack of talent. If the Bengals don't shoot themselves in the foot, as they are more than prone to do, they should be able to light up this defense. The Pats have struggled to provide a consistent pass rush since they let go of Vrabel, so this sets up pretty well for Cincy.
Ceddy Ced Benson will again be a focal point of the offensive, and defensive, gameplanning. In the preseason, the Pats used both Wilfork and Gerard Warren (taking over for incumbent Ty Warren who's done for the year) at the NT. Surprisingly, teams were able to run at the right side effectively with either guy at the LDE position. With road graters Bobbie Williams, Dennis Roland, and Andre Smith on that side of the OLine, the Bengals should attack that side with impunity. Rookie LMLB Brandon Spikes will have to play very well to slow down the Bengals running attack. I assume slowing the run game has been Belichick's obsession all offseason, and he has the track record of taking away what you do best, so let's assume they can limit the run game.
The passing game of the Bengals should be dynamic unless they continue to stop themselves with penalties and miscues. Veteran receivers Chad (Johnson) and TO should be able to get open against Darius Butler and the young secondary of the Pats. There will be opportunities, and guys just have to make plays. TE Jermaine Gresham should be able to use his speed against slower Patriots LB's, especially Spikes if he is asked to cover. JG is a matchup problem for the safeties as well and should have a nice pro debut. Andre Caldwell is probably out with a groin injury, so Jordan Shipley will be making his first NFL start as well and will have a chance to shine right out of the gate. Bernard Scott will probably be the third down back with Brian Leonard out, and I love BScott however you get him the ball. He's good for at least one dynamic play a game. I love the matchup of the Bengals passing game vs. the Pats. Just avoid the stupid penalties.
The offensive line for the Bengals returns intact for 2010, with the only disappointment that Andre Smith has not established himself as the starter at RT. Last season, little was expected for this unit, but 2010 is different. Once again, this should be a physical run blocking unit, but I am concerned about the pass blocking of the right side. Dennis Roland especially was exposed at the end of 2009 and it's important that the pass blocking improve to give this offense the chance to put up big passing numbers. The Pats are not a good pass rushing team, but what rush they get comes from the offensive left. Andrew Whitworth is establishing himself as a Pro-Bowl caliber LT and I think he'll be up to stopping the likes of Tully Banta-Cain. The center of the line needs to take a page from the Saints-Vikings game on Thursday and push big Wilfork and Gerard Warren side to side, opening up cut back lanes. The implementation of a power zone blocking scheme and the statistical improvement of the Bengal run game in 2009 are no coincidence. Again, this is a favorable matchup for the Bengal offense. If they don't stop themselves.
Special teams-
The Bengals have the edge in the return and coverage games, and it's been a long time since they've looked this good on returns. Adam Jones especially looked fantastic in the preseason, and could be a big difference maker in this one.
The kicking game advantage goes to the Pats. Until I see it, I won't be able to shake the visions of last year's horrendous kicking.
Prediction-
I'd love to say the Bengals are going to win this game, especially considering how weak this Pats defense is, but I can't. I haven't seen a consistent enough pass rush out of this team, and I haven't seen them play a clean enough game offensively over the last year and change to state confidently that the Bengals will win. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Tom Brady throwing a late touchdown to beat the Bengals 27-23. Better luck next week hosting the Ravens.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Ohio State's going to lose to this F'in guy?
I think not. Eazy-E just rolled over in his grave. Commitment to Excellence my arse.At least Jacory covered his nipples.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Breaking down the 2010 BCS Championship Picture from an OSU standpoint.
With the kickoff of the 2010 NCAA football season a couple of weeks out, I thought it would be a good time to take look at the field of contenders for this year's BCS title. Before we go too far, we must acknowledge that every team in contention this year is flawed, even #1 Alabama. For the purposes of this discussion, I thought the best way to look at the contenders was by breaking down the conferences most likely to be represented in the title game, and not necessarily by straight ranking. (The rankings I refer to are the from the preseason coaches poll).
Since the inception of the BCS, the SEC is certainly the cream of the conference crop. 6-0 in BCS Championship games warrants starting the conversation here. When talking SEC and BCS Championships, we must make two assumptions: The SEC champion WILL be represented so long as they have no more than two loses, and there will be ONLY one SEC team represented. With Alabama ranked #1 and Florida ranked #3, this definitely works in Ohio State's favor.
As it sets up, the BCS Championship really SHOULD be Ohio State vs. the SEC Champ. Yes, I said it, jinxes be damned. This season should be "national championship or bust" for the Bucks, and the whole program has be hoping for a shot at redemption after national title game loses to Florida and LSU. Be it Alabama or Florida, this should be the title match-up unless the Bucks trip up. More on that in a bit....
SEC
So the SEC once again features two of the highest ranked teams in the country in what shapes up to be a very top heavy conference. Florida should dominate a weak East Division, where Georgia could surprise on the strength of a dominant O-Line, but is breaking in a new D coordinator, and Tennessee is in transition with their third coach in as many seasons. Some say if Steve Spurrier is ever going to make a run at South Carolina, this is the year, but any real challenge to Florida would be a surprise. Alabama too, should have a relatively easy time in the West division. LSU certainly has talent, including top NFL prospect CB Patrick Peterson, but would have to have a huge leap in production from their offensive line and QB Jordan Jefferson to get Les Miles off the hot seat. Arkansas has a potentially lethal offense with ex-Michigan QB Ryan Mallett, but plays exactly zero defense. Any real threat from Auburn or Ole Miss would be a surprise. Unlike 2009, the Gators and Tide hook up in the regular season Oct. 2nd, in what certainly has the look of an SEC Championship preview. If that were to happen, I find it hard to believe that Nick Saban is going to out-coach Urban Meyer three straight times (including the 2009 SEC Championship). Hold a gun to my head, and I'll pick the Gators to win the rematch.
#1 Alabama certainly deserves the top preseason ranking. Returning 8 offensive starters, including QB Greg McElroy and arguably the best RB and WR in the country in Mark Ingram and Julio Jones, the offense should be formidable once again. And don't forget about RB Trent Richardson, who some feel might be better even than Ingram. The Center and Left side of the Offensive Line return to a team that is power run first and pass second. While McElroy will probably never be considered a premier passer, he did enough when he had to last year to win the title. I believe the passing game will miss underrated TE Colin Peek, who came to be a reliable target for McElroy last season. Limiting the run, and making Bama beat you with the pass, will still be the game plan against them. That's easier said than done.
Defensively, this team only returns 3 starters, MLB Dont'a Hightower, DE Marcel Dareus, and SS Mark Barron. The are however, very talented and deep, if lacking in starting experience. This group reminds me some of the unheralded Bama defense from two years ago, that was "too young" to have them on the doorstep of a national title. If there is a unit to be somewhat concerned about it is the secondary, where only Barron returns as a starter. But Saban is a premier recruiter, so once this team gets a few games into the season, I expect them to once again be stout.
If Alabama has one key weakness, it may be on special teams where both the place kicker and punter look to be freshmen. Replacing Javier Arenas as the primary return man won't be easy either.
The schedule makers also didn't do Bama any favors. In addition to a ranked Penn State and Florida on the early schedule, the final six opponents will be coming off a bye to face Bama. That includes a night game at LSU. Even without that added degree of difficulty, it's unlikely that Alabama would be able to go through two straight seasons undefeated in conference.
#3 Florida enters the first year of the post-Tebow era with lots of talent and lots of questions. Will the 6 returning offensive starters, including new starting QB John Brantley, be able to live in the shadow of #15? Or will he, and the whole program for that matter, feel a sense of freedom now that such a huge presence is gone? One thing is for sure, Brantley is a premier passing prospect whose been in the system a long time, including playing time in place of an injured Tebow in '09, and with him the Gators should have a more effective pass attack in 2010. The Offensive Line, led by All-American Mike Pouncey and road grating RT Marcus Gilbert, should be one of the best in country and is exactly what you'd hope for to help out a new QB. It also helps to have several potentially dynamic receivers in Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore, and converted running back Chris Rainey. (Thompson reportedly ran a 4.22/40 this spring. Apparently the same guy that timed Terrelle Pryor traveled to Gainesville).
The bigger question for their offense is will they be able to run it. Tebow led the team in rushing last season, and no one broke the 1,000 yard mark in rushing or receiving. A commitment to the running of speed back Jeff Demps and power back Emmanuel Moody will be key to keeping defenses off balance and exploiting play action passing opportunities. Tebow will be missed for his leadership, and especially his short yardage running ability. Converted quarterback and now TE Jordan Reed may be used in Wildcat packages, and Brantley will run some as well, but this is clearly going to be a different playbook than the last four seasons.
The defense returns 6 starters led by FS Will Hill, CB Janoris Jenkins, and DE Justin Trattou who played half of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. DT Jaye Howard is a big time NFL prospect, and hard hitting Redshirt Freshman Jelani Jenkins appears to be the new MLB. The secondary should be a strength, even after the departure of Joe Haden, with three returning starters including it's leader, Senior SS Ahmad Black. Much like Alabama, what this unit lacks in starting experience, it makes up for in talent. This unit will have a new coordinator, who will reportedly mix up 3 and 4 man fronts. It may take a few weeks, but this unit will be very good.
Special teams should be in a little bit better position than Alabama, with the kicking game more settled.
The schedule is also more favorable than Alabama's. Not only do they not have the ridiculous bye week issues, outside back to back October weeks at Alabama, and against LSU, the Gator's schedule looks pretty easy. Win or lose on October 2nd, I fully expect a rematch in Atlanta. This isn't Florida rebuilding, this is spackle and some paint. This team is right back in the hunt for another conference and national title.
Big Ten (Expanded write up beyond title contenders for obvious reasons)
Outside the SEC Champ, if Ohio State isn't the next school on the BCS and network's list, they're in the top 3 (okay 4, with Texas and Notre Dame). Ohio State has been in three title games, and they have the clearest road this season. With a schedule featuring an out of conference game against #13 Miami and games against three conference opponents currently in the preseason top 15 (Iowa #10, Wisconsin #12, and Penn State #14), if OSU is undefeated they are absolutely in. Even with one loss, depending on who it's against and when, the Buckeyes would still be in serious contention for a title game berth. The conference had a very successful bowl season to end 2009, and looks to have a couple of teams capable of ending as highly in the standings as they are starting. If the Bucks do have a loss, it will be imperative that the other ranked Big Ten teams do well to prop up the overall quality of the schedule.
#2 Ohio State is the daddy of this conference, winner of 5 straight titles, and should be favored in every game they play. I won't go into a detailed breakdown of the Bucks here, but suffice it to say that the play of Terrelle Pryor and his offensive line will be the key to this team's success. The defense will be stout again behind Cam Heyward and a stud LB corps, but does have some questions in the secondary. This team is certainly talented enough to challenge anyone for the national title.
The schedule is discussed above.
#12 Wisconsin is my personal pick to finish second in the conference, returning 16 total starters and 10 on offense. QB Scott Tolzien returns, as does the best RB in the conference in John Clay. WR Nick Toon returns, as does all five O-line starters including an all-conference left side featuring T Gabe Carimi and G John Moffit. The defense returns 6 starters, including 3 of the starting 4 secondary spots. All-conference SS Jay Valai leads that unit. The defensive front will have 3 new starters, but should be solid. The Badgers have the best power running game in the conference, and Clay will present a stiff test to the Buckeyes streak of not allowing a 100 rusher. Especially in Madison, at night. Wisky's schedule is pretty favorable, with the toughest games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and at Iowa in October. I think the Badgers have the best shot to upset the Buckeyes, but it will come down to how well Tolzien plays. Really, that's the story of their season. Wisconsin led the Big Ten is scoring and total offense in 2009, but could only muster 23 combined points against OSU and Iowa. If they are going to end a Top-10 team, the running and pass game will have to be more consistent.
#10 Iowa has some serious NFL talent returning on defense, a unit which finished 3rd in the nation in pass defense a year ago. 8 starters return on that side of the ball including All-Americans DE Adrian Clayborn and SS Tyler Sash, and All-Conference FS Brett Greenwood. All four starting D-linemen return, but the linebacking corps will have to replace MLB Pat Angerer and OLB AJ Edds. Also gone was the team's best cover corner in Anthony Spievey, now also playing in the NFL. This unit should be very, very good again, but may not be quite as dominant as they were in '09. Offensively, 6 starters return including QB Ricky Stanzi and nearly the entire compliment of skill position players. All-Conference WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and running mate Marvin McNutt return, as well as talented RB's Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. The O-line is a question however. 3 new starters, including the Tackle position vacated by All-American Bryan Bulaga, will have to do better than the unit that cleared the way for a run game that ranked next to last in the Big Ten in 2009. The schedule is favorable to Iowa with all of Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State at home, but if Iowa can't run, I don't believe Stanzi is good enough to beat good teams. Iowa may finish in the top 15, but I think they're overrated at #10.
#14 Penn State is a team I'm not sure I have any kind of handle on. I can't see a team that lost it's QB and that much defensive talent, and has this many other quality teams in conference is ranked higher than #20 when it's all said and done, even with RB Evan Royster.
Big 12
If Ohio State does slip up this season, the next best choice for the BCS will come from the Big 12. This is again a top heavy conference with #4 Texas, #8 Oklahoma, and #9 Nebraska dominating. It seems very strange to me that Texas would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma considering the Big 12 coaches voted OU the favorite in the conference, and OU will be favored in every game they play this season including against Texas. For the purposes of this national title discussion, I'm not even going to worry about Nebraska because, like Iowa, their below average offense cannot carry them to an undefeated season. If Ohio State loses at least once, even a one loss Texas or OU would still have a shot. Nebraska isn't in that category.
#8 Oklahoma returns 9 starters on offense, including QB Landry Jones and a full contingent of skill position players led by WR Ryan Broyles and electric RB Demarco Murray. The biggest question mark for the Sooner offense will be the play of an Offensive Line that struggled last season WITH All-American Trent Williams. Much like Jones, the OLine should be more experienced this year and like Bob Stoops, I expect better things this season. One sleeper offensive player to watch is WR Kenny Stills, who with Broyles gives the Sooners a potent pass attack even with the loss of Jermaine Gresham.
The defense only returns 5 starters, but three are returning All-Conference stars DE Jeremy Beal, WLB Travis Lewis, and FS Quinton Carter. Defensive Tackle and Corner are questions going into the season, with the departure of Gerald McCoy and the youth in the back end. Much like Texas, several key contributors on this side of the ball will be young guys getting their turn. The talent should be there for this to be one of the better units in the conference, just probably not as good as the Horns.
The Sooners should be very strong in all phases of special teams.
OU should be favored in every game they play, with Texas being the toughest on the regular schedule. The Sooners will have a home date with Florida State and a road game at Cincinnati, but there's a decent possibility this team is undefeated going into a potential Big 12 Conference title game.
#4 Texas is almost lucky that Garrett Gilbert into last season's title game, at least when it comes to 2010. Like Florida and Oklahoma to some extent, UT's title aspirations rest on the arm of a QB with limited starting experience. Gilbert is certainly the least experienced of the three, and though he played admirably against a tough Alabama defense, it's still only 1 game's worth of plays to evaluate him on. If I'm a betting man, he's the most likely to struggle.
The offense returns 6 starters, but lose top passing and receiving combination Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. LT Kyle Hix returns to anchor a line that will be counted on to get more than just 500 yards from RB Tre Newton. WR Malcolm Williams, all 6'3" 225 of him, and his 14.4 yards per catch will be counted on heavily to replace Shipley's production. He'll need to get some help from James Kirkendoll and Marquis Goodwin to make this offense effective enough to challenge for the conference, let alone the national title.
The defense returns 7 starters, but lost a ton of NFL talent in DE Sergio Kindle, DT Lamarr Houston, and All-World S Earl Thomas. Returning CB Aaron Williams is arguably the nation's best on the back end, and the front seven is loaded with young talent led by DE Sam Acho and NT Kheeston Randall. This unit will be the team's strength, and will have to be dominant by mid-season.
Texas' schedule is more difficult than OU's with a four week stretch than includes an always tough road game at Texas Tech, UCLA, OU and a rematch of the conference title game at Nebraska. There is no love lost between Texas and Nebraska, and with this being the Huskers last in the conference, this season should be interesting.
ACC
Although it's unlikely to happen, an undefeated or even one loss ACC champ could find themselves in the BCS title game if several things go their way. #6 Virginia Tech is the conference favorite, #13 Miami lurks behind, but defending conference champ Georgia Tech, and a host of other potentially dangerous conference foes make a 10 win season unlikely for any ACC contender. North Carolina and their nearly NFL caliber defense sit in the Coastal division with VaTech and the U, and the Atlantic could present challenges from Florida State's offense or Clemson's defense.
#6 Virginia Tech returns 8 starters to an offense that includes QB Tyrod Taylor and RB's with 2 1,000 yard seasons to their credit in 2009's leading rusher Ryan Williams and 2008's Darren Evans (who returns from an ACL tear). Tyrod Taylor is much like OSU's Terrelle Pryor and Miami's Jacory Harris in that they will all have to be more consistent passers to take their teams to conference and national titles. Like Pryor, Taylor's Offensive Line will have to do a better job of pass protecting in order to improve his efficiency. Having new starting LT Nick Beckton already nursing a turf toe injury, isn't the greatest start. WR Jarrett Boykins is one of the better pass catchers in the conference, and he'll be helped by Dyrell Roberts and big Marcus Davis, but the bread and butter of this team will be the power running game.
The secondary will be the strength of a very young defense only returning 3 starters. LCB Rashad Carmichael is an outstanding cover corner, and RCB Davon Morgan and FS Eddie Whitley are both playmakers. The question will be how this unit gels in the front seven, and whether younger guys can replace the pass rush abilities of departed players like Jason Worilds. Big things will be expected of SDE Steven Friday, who is the most experienced player in that unit. The bullets start flying at this Bud Foster defense right away, as Boise St. comes calling Week 1, and it doesn't help that projected MLB Barquell Rivers is likely to miss that game.
Great special teams play is always a hallmark of Frank Boehmer's teams, and this year should be no different. In such a big game as the BSU opener, this may be the wild card that swings the game in VT's favor.
The importance of the Boise game really cannot be understated for either team. If Boise loses, they are done in the national title picture, but Va Tech is almost in the same boat considering the competition in the conference. This team may not even win their division, let alone a conference or national title. The opener is difficult, and the end of the schedule includes Georgia Tech, @North Carolina, and @Miami in consecutive weeks.
#13 Miami has a ton of returning starters on both sides of the ball, including 7 on offense. QB Jacory Harris showed flashes of brilliant playmaking, but will have to be much more consistent, especially on the road. It didn't help that the O-Line's pass protection was particularly poor in 2009. The two returning starters on the line will be switching positions to LT and LG respectively, so how fast this unit gels will be a big factor in determining the ultimate success of the offense. RB's Damien Barry and Graig Cooper, who returns from a major knee injury, will need to provide enough out of the backfield that Harris won't have to shoulder the entire offense. Much like Pryor, Harris' development is the key to this team's ultimate success.
The defense returns 9 starters, including All-Conference DE Allen Bailey, SLB Colin McCarthy, and CB Brandon Harris. Bailey, the bull-rush specialist, leads a deep D-Line that will have to get more pressure on the QB than they did a year ago. While this unit is talented, it isn't nearly as good as the "U" in their heyday. This defense has speed, but even with all the returning starters, will not be better than the third best in the conference behind UNC and Clemson.
Special teams should be solid as the key players are returning starters.
The U struggled on the road last season, and this year they have consecutive games @Ohio State and @Pittsburgh, and are @Clemson and @GaTech in conference. They do catch North Carolina and Va Tech at home, but this has to be one of the most difficult schedules in the conference. Harris and the O-Line will have to come together quickly against that early schedule to have any shot of a national title.
Pac-10
#11 Oregon is the only Pac 10 team with a legitimate shot at a national title game berth, and it's going to take an undefeated season to get them there. If QB Jeremiah Masoli had not lost his mind and gotten kicked off this team, they'd certainly have been a preseason top 5 team. As it stands, this is QB Nate Costa's team. Costa actually won the QB job two seasons ago, but got hurt, so he has experience. Add in a dynamic RB like LaMichael James and the entire O-Line returning, and this team will have a good offense.
The defense will be solid, for a Pac 10 defense, led by MLB Casey Matthews and DE Kenny Rowe and 7 other returning starters.
The schedule is mediocre, with road games @Tennessee, @Southern Cal, and @Oregon State to end the season. The USC game is going to be the Trojans bowl game, and a very talented SC team will give Oregon all it wants. Without Masoli, I don't see this team doing enough to warrant a national title game bid.
Non-BCS schools
The BCS powers that be and the TV execs told you everything you need to know about what they think of non-BCS title contenders last season. With the chance to pair both Boise St. and TCU against big boy schools, they decided they'd only let those teams kill the ratings of one game instead of two, and made them play each other. Outside of one or both of these teams going undefeated, AND getting some help from Ohio State and the rest, there's no way a non-BCS team will be the first choice to take on the SEC champ. I know I sure don't want to see it.
#5 Boise State clearly has the best chance to make a title game based on the strength of their schedule. If they can beat Virginia Tech is what is basically a home game for the Hokies, and can beat a ranked Oregon State team, the in-conference road is clear for the Broncos.
The Broncos return more starters than any team in the country, with basically the entire offense, including 1st team All-American QB Kellen Moore, coming back off an undefeated season. BSU does just about everything well on offense and their numbers are PlayStation-ish, though it's a little hard to gauge just how good they are considering their usual competition. One thing is certain, if BSU leads a game in time of possession, it's most likely going to be a win against just about anyone.
The defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but they've been very solid the last couple of years. 10 starters returning, with the only loss being 1st round pick CB Kyle Wilson have them set up well again. The secondary should be very good once again, with NFL talent at corner and safety. The D-Line hasn't been great at rushing the passer, but returns 2 All-Conference starters.
I simply think it sets a horrible, horrible precedent if Boise (or TCU for that matter) get into the title game. You should not be awarded for beating up a lousy conference and playing one decent out of conference game. I don't care how many undefeated seasons you've had in the past, you should be rewarded for playing a difficult schedule, not an easy one. Go Hokies.
#7 TCU does not have the schedule to make the title game, even if they go undefeated this season. They have 16 returning starters including QB Andy Dalton, RB Joseph Turner, and all 3 Safeties in the 4-2-5 alignment, but it would take so many things to happen to get them to the title game, it's just not plausible. There will be a 2 loss big school team in the BCS championship game before an undefeated TCU with their weak schedule.
Again, one game against a ranked Oregon State, and a game @ barely ranked Utah, do not a championship resume make.
(It's a strange scheduling quirk that Oregon State plays both of the non-BCS contenders this season. I will be big a Ducks fan for at least two games this season. Three actually, including the Oregon game).
So where does this leave us?
Well, to end back where we started, I believe it's going to be Ohio State vs. the SEC champ. If not, it should be Big 12 champ vs. SEC champ (like the last two years). If not that, then either an undefeated Oregon or an undefeated or one loss ACC Champ vs. the SEC champ. Lastly on the pecking order would be Boise St. vs. the SEC champ. Hold a gun to my head and I'll say Ohio State vs. Florida, with the Buckeyes avenging a savage beat down to end the 2006 season. But I'm a blatant Ohio State homer, so take that with a grain of salt. O-H......
Since the inception of the BCS, the SEC is certainly the cream of the conference crop. 6-0 in BCS Championship games warrants starting the conversation here. When talking SEC and BCS Championships, we must make two assumptions: The SEC champion WILL be represented so long as they have no more than two loses, and there will be ONLY one SEC team represented. With Alabama ranked #1 and Florida ranked #3, this definitely works in Ohio State's favor.
As it sets up, the BCS Championship really SHOULD be Ohio State vs. the SEC Champ. Yes, I said it, jinxes be damned. This season should be "national championship or bust" for the Bucks, and the whole program has be hoping for a shot at redemption after national title game loses to Florida and LSU. Be it Alabama or Florida, this should be the title match-up unless the Bucks trip up. More on that in a bit....
SEC
So the SEC once again features two of the highest ranked teams in the country in what shapes up to be a very top heavy conference. Florida should dominate a weak East Division, where Georgia could surprise on the strength of a dominant O-Line, but is breaking in a new D coordinator, and Tennessee is in transition with their third coach in as many seasons. Some say if Steve Spurrier is ever going to make a run at South Carolina, this is the year, but any real challenge to Florida would be a surprise. Alabama too, should have a relatively easy time in the West division. LSU certainly has talent, including top NFL prospect CB Patrick Peterson, but would have to have a huge leap in production from their offensive line and QB Jordan Jefferson to get Les Miles off the hot seat. Arkansas has a potentially lethal offense with ex-Michigan QB Ryan Mallett, but plays exactly zero defense. Any real threat from Auburn or Ole Miss would be a surprise. Unlike 2009, the Gators and Tide hook up in the regular season Oct. 2nd, in what certainly has the look of an SEC Championship preview. If that were to happen, I find it hard to believe that Nick Saban is going to out-coach Urban Meyer three straight times (including the 2009 SEC Championship). Hold a gun to my head, and I'll pick the Gators to win the rematch.
#1 Alabama certainly deserves the top preseason ranking. Returning 8 offensive starters, including QB Greg McElroy and arguably the best RB and WR in the country in Mark Ingram and Julio Jones, the offense should be formidable once again. And don't forget about RB Trent Richardson, who some feel might be better even than Ingram. The Center and Left side of the Offensive Line return to a team that is power run first and pass second. While McElroy will probably never be considered a premier passer, he did enough when he had to last year to win the title. I believe the passing game will miss underrated TE Colin Peek, who came to be a reliable target for McElroy last season. Limiting the run, and making Bama beat you with the pass, will still be the game plan against them. That's easier said than done.
Defensively, this team only returns 3 starters, MLB Dont'a Hightower, DE Marcel Dareus, and SS Mark Barron. The are however, very talented and deep, if lacking in starting experience. This group reminds me some of the unheralded Bama defense from two years ago, that was "too young" to have them on the doorstep of a national title. If there is a unit to be somewhat concerned about it is the secondary, where only Barron returns as a starter. But Saban is a premier recruiter, so once this team gets a few games into the season, I expect them to once again be stout.
If Alabama has one key weakness, it may be on special teams where both the place kicker and punter look to be freshmen. Replacing Javier Arenas as the primary return man won't be easy either.
The schedule makers also didn't do Bama any favors. In addition to a ranked Penn State and Florida on the early schedule, the final six opponents will be coming off a bye to face Bama. That includes a night game at LSU. Even without that added degree of difficulty, it's unlikely that Alabama would be able to go through two straight seasons undefeated in conference.
#3 Florida enters the first year of the post-Tebow era with lots of talent and lots of questions. Will the 6 returning offensive starters, including new starting QB John Brantley, be able to live in the shadow of #15? Or will he, and the whole program for that matter, feel a sense of freedom now that such a huge presence is gone? One thing is for sure, Brantley is a premier passing prospect whose been in the system a long time, including playing time in place of an injured Tebow in '09, and with him the Gators should have a more effective pass attack in 2010. The Offensive Line, led by All-American Mike Pouncey and road grating RT Marcus Gilbert, should be one of the best in country and is exactly what you'd hope for to help out a new QB. It also helps to have several potentially dynamic receivers in Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore, and converted running back Chris Rainey. (Thompson reportedly ran a 4.22/40 this spring. Apparently the same guy that timed Terrelle Pryor traveled to Gainesville).
The bigger question for their offense is will they be able to run it. Tebow led the team in rushing last season, and no one broke the 1,000 yard mark in rushing or receiving. A commitment to the running of speed back Jeff Demps and power back Emmanuel Moody will be key to keeping defenses off balance and exploiting play action passing opportunities. Tebow will be missed for his leadership, and especially his short yardage running ability. Converted quarterback and now TE Jordan Reed may be used in Wildcat packages, and Brantley will run some as well, but this is clearly going to be a different playbook than the last four seasons.
The defense returns 6 starters led by FS Will Hill, CB Janoris Jenkins, and DE Justin Trattou who played half of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. DT Jaye Howard is a big time NFL prospect, and hard hitting Redshirt Freshman Jelani Jenkins appears to be the new MLB. The secondary should be a strength, even after the departure of Joe Haden, with three returning starters including it's leader, Senior SS Ahmad Black. Much like Alabama, what this unit lacks in starting experience, it makes up for in talent. This unit will have a new coordinator, who will reportedly mix up 3 and 4 man fronts. It may take a few weeks, but this unit will be very good.
Special teams should be in a little bit better position than Alabama, with the kicking game more settled.
The schedule is also more favorable than Alabama's. Not only do they not have the ridiculous bye week issues, outside back to back October weeks at Alabama, and against LSU, the Gator's schedule looks pretty easy. Win or lose on October 2nd, I fully expect a rematch in Atlanta. This isn't Florida rebuilding, this is spackle and some paint. This team is right back in the hunt for another conference and national title.
Big Ten (Expanded write up beyond title contenders for obvious reasons)
Outside the SEC Champ, if Ohio State isn't the next school on the BCS and network's list, they're in the top 3 (okay 4, with Texas and Notre Dame). Ohio State has been in three title games, and they have the clearest road this season. With a schedule featuring an out of conference game against #13 Miami and games against three conference opponents currently in the preseason top 15 (Iowa #10, Wisconsin #12, and Penn State #14), if OSU is undefeated they are absolutely in. Even with one loss, depending on who it's against and when, the Buckeyes would still be in serious contention for a title game berth. The conference had a very successful bowl season to end 2009, and looks to have a couple of teams capable of ending as highly in the standings as they are starting. If the Bucks do have a loss, it will be imperative that the other ranked Big Ten teams do well to prop up the overall quality of the schedule.
#2 Ohio State is the daddy of this conference, winner of 5 straight titles, and should be favored in every game they play. I won't go into a detailed breakdown of the Bucks here, but suffice it to say that the play of Terrelle Pryor and his offensive line will be the key to this team's success. The defense will be stout again behind Cam Heyward and a stud LB corps, but does have some questions in the secondary. This team is certainly talented enough to challenge anyone for the national title.
The schedule is discussed above.
#12 Wisconsin is my personal pick to finish second in the conference, returning 16 total starters and 10 on offense. QB Scott Tolzien returns, as does the best RB in the conference in John Clay. WR Nick Toon returns, as does all five O-line starters including an all-conference left side featuring T Gabe Carimi and G John Moffit. The defense returns 6 starters, including 3 of the starting 4 secondary spots. All-conference SS Jay Valai leads that unit. The defensive front will have 3 new starters, but should be solid. The Badgers have the best power running game in the conference, and Clay will present a stiff test to the Buckeyes streak of not allowing a 100 rusher. Especially in Madison, at night. Wisky's schedule is pretty favorable, with the toughest games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and at Iowa in October. I think the Badgers have the best shot to upset the Buckeyes, but it will come down to how well Tolzien plays. Really, that's the story of their season. Wisconsin led the Big Ten is scoring and total offense in 2009, but could only muster 23 combined points against OSU and Iowa. If they are going to end a Top-10 team, the running and pass game will have to be more consistent.
#10 Iowa has some serious NFL talent returning on defense, a unit which finished 3rd in the nation in pass defense a year ago. 8 starters return on that side of the ball including All-Americans DE Adrian Clayborn and SS Tyler Sash, and All-Conference FS Brett Greenwood. All four starting D-linemen return, but the linebacking corps will have to replace MLB Pat Angerer and OLB AJ Edds. Also gone was the team's best cover corner in Anthony Spievey, now also playing in the NFL. This unit should be very, very good again, but may not be quite as dominant as they were in '09. Offensively, 6 starters return including QB Ricky Stanzi and nearly the entire compliment of skill position players. All-Conference WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and running mate Marvin McNutt return, as well as talented RB's Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. The O-line is a question however. 3 new starters, including the Tackle position vacated by All-American Bryan Bulaga, will have to do better than the unit that cleared the way for a run game that ranked next to last in the Big Ten in 2009. The schedule is favorable to Iowa with all of Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State at home, but if Iowa can't run, I don't believe Stanzi is good enough to beat good teams. Iowa may finish in the top 15, but I think they're overrated at #10.
#14 Penn State is a team I'm not sure I have any kind of handle on. I can't see a team that lost it's QB and that much defensive talent, and has this many other quality teams in conference is ranked higher than #20 when it's all said and done, even with RB Evan Royster.
Big 12
If Ohio State does slip up this season, the next best choice for the BCS will come from the Big 12. This is again a top heavy conference with #4 Texas, #8 Oklahoma, and #9 Nebraska dominating. It seems very strange to me that Texas would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma considering the Big 12 coaches voted OU the favorite in the conference, and OU will be favored in every game they play this season including against Texas. For the purposes of this national title discussion, I'm not even going to worry about Nebraska because, like Iowa, their below average offense cannot carry them to an undefeated season. If Ohio State loses at least once, even a one loss Texas or OU would still have a shot. Nebraska isn't in that category.
#8 Oklahoma returns 9 starters on offense, including QB Landry Jones and a full contingent of skill position players led by WR Ryan Broyles and electric RB Demarco Murray. The biggest question mark for the Sooner offense will be the play of an Offensive Line that struggled last season WITH All-American Trent Williams. Much like Jones, the OLine should be more experienced this year and like Bob Stoops, I expect better things this season. One sleeper offensive player to watch is WR Kenny Stills, who with Broyles gives the Sooners a potent pass attack even with the loss of Jermaine Gresham.
The defense only returns 5 starters, but three are returning All-Conference stars DE Jeremy Beal, WLB Travis Lewis, and FS Quinton Carter. Defensive Tackle and Corner are questions going into the season, with the departure of Gerald McCoy and the youth in the back end. Much like Texas, several key contributors on this side of the ball will be young guys getting their turn. The talent should be there for this to be one of the better units in the conference, just probably not as good as the Horns.
The Sooners should be very strong in all phases of special teams.
OU should be favored in every game they play, with Texas being the toughest on the regular schedule. The Sooners will have a home date with Florida State and a road game at Cincinnati, but there's a decent possibility this team is undefeated going into a potential Big 12 Conference title game.
#4 Texas is almost lucky that Garrett Gilbert into last season's title game, at least when it comes to 2010. Like Florida and Oklahoma to some extent, UT's title aspirations rest on the arm of a QB with limited starting experience. Gilbert is certainly the least experienced of the three, and though he played admirably against a tough Alabama defense, it's still only 1 game's worth of plays to evaluate him on. If I'm a betting man, he's the most likely to struggle.
The offense returns 6 starters, but lose top passing and receiving combination Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. LT Kyle Hix returns to anchor a line that will be counted on to get more than just 500 yards from RB Tre Newton. WR Malcolm Williams, all 6'3" 225 of him, and his 14.4 yards per catch will be counted on heavily to replace Shipley's production. He'll need to get some help from James Kirkendoll and Marquis Goodwin to make this offense effective enough to challenge for the conference, let alone the national title.
The defense returns 7 starters, but lost a ton of NFL talent in DE Sergio Kindle, DT Lamarr Houston, and All-World S Earl Thomas. Returning CB Aaron Williams is arguably the nation's best on the back end, and the front seven is loaded with young talent led by DE Sam Acho and NT Kheeston Randall. This unit will be the team's strength, and will have to be dominant by mid-season.
Texas' schedule is more difficult than OU's with a four week stretch than includes an always tough road game at Texas Tech, UCLA, OU and a rematch of the conference title game at Nebraska. There is no love lost between Texas and Nebraska, and with this being the Huskers last in the conference, this season should be interesting.
ACC
Although it's unlikely to happen, an undefeated or even one loss ACC champ could find themselves in the BCS title game if several things go their way. #6 Virginia Tech is the conference favorite, #13 Miami lurks behind, but defending conference champ Georgia Tech, and a host of other potentially dangerous conference foes make a 10 win season unlikely for any ACC contender. North Carolina and their nearly NFL caliber defense sit in the Coastal division with VaTech and the U, and the Atlantic could present challenges from Florida State's offense or Clemson's defense.
#6 Virginia Tech returns 8 starters to an offense that includes QB Tyrod Taylor and RB's with 2 1,000 yard seasons to their credit in 2009's leading rusher Ryan Williams and 2008's Darren Evans (who returns from an ACL tear). Tyrod Taylor is much like OSU's Terrelle Pryor and Miami's Jacory Harris in that they will all have to be more consistent passers to take their teams to conference and national titles. Like Pryor, Taylor's Offensive Line will have to do a better job of pass protecting in order to improve his efficiency. Having new starting LT Nick Beckton already nursing a turf toe injury, isn't the greatest start. WR Jarrett Boykins is one of the better pass catchers in the conference, and he'll be helped by Dyrell Roberts and big Marcus Davis, but the bread and butter of this team will be the power running game.
The secondary will be the strength of a very young defense only returning 3 starters. LCB Rashad Carmichael is an outstanding cover corner, and RCB Davon Morgan and FS Eddie Whitley are both playmakers. The question will be how this unit gels in the front seven, and whether younger guys can replace the pass rush abilities of departed players like Jason Worilds. Big things will be expected of SDE Steven Friday, who is the most experienced player in that unit. The bullets start flying at this Bud Foster defense right away, as Boise St. comes calling Week 1, and it doesn't help that projected MLB Barquell Rivers is likely to miss that game.
Great special teams play is always a hallmark of Frank Boehmer's teams, and this year should be no different. In such a big game as the BSU opener, this may be the wild card that swings the game in VT's favor.
The importance of the Boise game really cannot be understated for either team. If Boise loses, they are done in the national title picture, but Va Tech is almost in the same boat considering the competition in the conference. This team may not even win their division, let alone a conference or national title. The opener is difficult, and the end of the schedule includes Georgia Tech, @North Carolina, and @Miami in consecutive weeks.
#13 Miami has a ton of returning starters on both sides of the ball, including 7 on offense. QB Jacory Harris showed flashes of brilliant playmaking, but will have to be much more consistent, especially on the road. It didn't help that the O-Line's pass protection was particularly poor in 2009. The two returning starters on the line will be switching positions to LT and LG respectively, so how fast this unit gels will be a big factor in determining the ultimate success of the offense. RB's Damien Barry and Graig Cooper, who returns from a major knee injury, will need to provide enough out of the backfield that Harris won't have to shoulder the entire offense. Much like Pryor, Harris' development is the key to this team's ultimate success.
The defense returns 9 starters, including All-Conference DE Allen Bailey, SLB Colin McCarthy, and CB Brandon Harris. Bailey, the bull-rush specialist, leads a deep D-Line that will have to get more pressure on the QB than they did a year ago. While this unit is talented, it isn't nearly as good as the "U" in their heyday. This defense has speed, but even with all the returning starters, will not be better than the third best in the conference behind UNC and Clemson.
Special teams should be solid as the key players are returning starters.
The U struggled on the road last season, and this year they have consecutive games @Ohio State and @Pittsburgh, and are @Clemson and @GaTech in conference. They do catch North Carolina and Va Tech at home, but this has to be one of the most difficult schedules in the conference. Harris and the O-Line will have to come together quickly against that early schedule to have any shot of a national title.
Pac-10
#11 Oregon is the only Pac 10 team with a legitimate shot at a national title game berth, and it's going to take an undefeated season to get them there. If QB Jeremiah Masoli had not lost his mind and gotten kicked off this team, they'd certainly have been a preseason top 5 team. As it stands, this is QB Nate Costa's team. Costa actually won the QB job two seasons ago, but got hurt, so he has experience. Add in a dynamic RB like LaMichael James and the entire O-Line returning, and this team will have a good offense.
The defense will be solid, for a Pac 10 defense, led by MLB Casey Matthews and DE Kenny Rowe and 7 other returning starters.
The schedule is mediocre, with road games @Tennessee, @Southern Cal, and @Oregon State to end the season. The USC game is going to be the Trojans bowl game, and a very talented SC team will give Oregon all it wants. Without Masoli, I don't see this team doing enough to warrant a national title game bid.
Non-BCS schools
The BCS powers that be and the TV execs told you everything you need to know about what they think of non-BCS title contenders last season. With the chance to pair both Boise St. and TCU against big boy schools, they decided they'd only let those teams kill the ratings of one game instead of two, and made them play each other. Outside of one or both of these teams going undefeated, AND getting some help from Ohio State and the rest, there's no way a non-BCS team will be the first choice to take on the SEC champ. I know I sure don't want to see it.
#5 Boise State clearly has the best chance to make a title game based on the strength of their schedule. If they can beat Virginia Tech is what is basically a home game for the Hokies, and can beat a ranked Oregon State team, the in-conference road is clear for the Broncos.
The Broncos return more starters than any team in the country, with basically the entire offense, including 1st team All-American QB Kellen Moore, coming back off an undefeated season. BSU does just about everything well on offense and their numbers are PlayStation-ish, though it's a little hard to gauge just how good they are considering their usual competition. One thing is certain, if BSU leads a game in time of possession, it's most likely going to be a win against just about anyone.
The defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but they've been very solid the last couple of years. 10 starters returning, with the only loss being 1st round pick CB Kyle Wilson have them set up well again. The secondary should be very good once again, with NFL talent at corner and safety. The D-Line hasn't been great at rushing the passer, but returns 2 All-Conference starters.
I simply think it sets a horrible, horrible precedent if Boise (or TCU for that matter) get into the title game. You should not be awarded for beating up a lousy conference and playing one decent out of conference game. I don't care how many undefeated seasons you've had in the past, you should be rewarded for playing a difficult schedule, not an easy one. Go Hokies.
#7 TCU does not have the schedule to make the title game, even if they go undefeated this season. They have 16 returning starters including QB Andy Dalton, RB Joseph Turner, and all 3 Safeties in the 4-2-5 alignment, but it would take so many things to happen to get them to the title game, it's just not plausible. There will be a 2 loss big school team in the BCS championship game before an undefeated TCU with their weak schedule.
Again, one game against a ranked Oregon State, and a game @ barely ranked Utah, do not a championship resume make.
(It's a strange scheduling quirk that Oregon State plays both of the non-BCS contenders this season. I will be big a Ducks fan for at least two games this season. Three actually, including the Oregon game).
So where does this leave us?
Well, to end back where we started, I believe it's going to be Ohio State vs. the SEC champ. If not, it should be Big 12 champ vs. SEC champ (like the last two years). If not that, then either an undefeated Oregon or an undefeated or one loss ACC Champ vs. the SEC champ. Lastly on the pecking order would be Boise St. vs. the SEC champ. Hold a gun to my head and I'll say Ohio State vs. Florida, with the Buckeyes avenging a savage beat down to end the 2006 season. But I'm a blatant Ohio State homer, so take that with a grain of salt. O-H......
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