(The Bengals followed up a tough loss to the Texans by absolutely crushing the Bears going into the bye. In hindsight, there was much less to worry about than I wrote. The Bears had the worst offensive line and secondary in the league. Still, winning going into the bye was important and this was the best game all year for the passing game).
Bengals v Bears Primer
So the minute you start drinking the Kool Aid, the Bengals go out against Houston and show us that they really aren’t as good as we thought coming out of Baltimore. The defense was once again victimized by big plays and showed poor tackling, and the offense once again went dormant for long stretches and never established rhythm against a defense that hadn’t stopped anyone not wearing a Raider uniform. Now the Bengals welcome a Chicago Bears team also coming off a disappointing loss and also trying to determine how close they are to being an actual contender at 3-2.
In looking at this game it’s apparent that this is a battle of two teams who have the look of Wildcard teams at best, and who’s collective season’s direction hinges on this game. Yeah, I think it’s that big. A win for Cincinnati keeps them atop the division (for now) and sends them to the bye 5-2. Baltimore and Pittsburgh lurk just on the other side, so it’s huge to be three games over .500 instead of only one. If they lose to Chicago, four consecutive losses is not out of the realm of possibility. With the second half schedule they have, 4-5 would make a playoff spot unlikely, so beating Chicago is critical. For the Bears, they are quickly falling behind Minnesota in the NFC North and are tied with a slew of other teams fighting for Wildcards. In short, this is a very big game for two teams with more similarities than differences. Let’s break it down:
When the Bengals have the ball:
So much for the league’s leading rusher; apparently all it takes to shut down Cedric Benson is a 4-3 alignment. The Bengals had faced 5 straight 3-4 alignments to start the season, but will now face their second straight 4-3. Chicago coach Lovie Smith is a Tony Dungy disciple and his team employs an aggressive Tampa-2 scheme with two deep safeties, corners playing zone coverage, and a ton responsibility for the linebackers. This Bears team; however, will have a lot of unfamiliar faces to most fans.
Brian Urlacher is gone with a dislocated arm. Nick Roach has done a decent job replacing him, but is not the game changer Urlacher can be. Lance Briggs is the best player on this defense, and is a guy you have to account for on every play from his weakside LB position. He will rush, and he can cover, and above all he can hit. Starting strongside backer Pisa Tinoisamo is done for the year with a knee injury, so Hunter Hillenmeyer will probably start there. The defensive line features a couple of good pass rush ends in Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown, with Mark Anderson in the mix. Tommie Harris is still a solid defensive tackle, but is not the explosive player he used to be as he is basically on one leg with a chronically bad knee. Marcus Harrison got the start last week, but the Bears will rotate several players on the interior line. This team has done a decent job against the run, but has struggled to get a consistent pass rush. Sound familiar? They will blitz frequently, especially on third and longs to protect a pretty weak secondary and generate turnovers.
The secondary is a very average unit. Peanut Tillman anchors the Left corner with 2nd year man Zach Bowman at the RCB. Bowman has flashed some skills, and the coaching staff has been very high on him since training camp. Nathan Vasher is the nickel back and should be targeted every time he’s on the field. Yes, he’s that bad. Daniel Manning and rookie Al Alfalava man the safety positions for a unit that has not created a ton of turnovers so far this season.
While not a dominant defense, this is still a pretty good group that plays hard and keeps the Bears in games. They have been victimized by speed, as was evidenced by last week’s loss to the Falcons. Roddy White scored a long touchdown on a WR bubble screen early, sound familiar? While they did a decent job stopping Michael Turner on power runs, they gave up some runs to the outside from Jerious Norwood. Change of pace back anyone? This is a defense that has not given up more than 24 points to any opponent, so even undermanned they are tough.
For the Bengals to have success, it will have to come through the air. The Bengals passing game will have to be much cleaner than it was against Houston. Too many drops and fumbles after the catch to beat good teams. The Bengals should put the two tight end sets away for awhile, and stop asking Daniel Coats to much beyond block right now. I’d rather see more three and even four receiver sets, especially with Chris Henry in the game. That and getting Bernard Scott on the field any way you can. Maybe take a page from what Houston and Chicago do, and set Scott out wide for a bubble screen. It really doesn’t do any good if you motion the back out to a route if you don’t throw it to them occasionally.
The Bengals offense has been frustratingly inconsistent to this point, and this is another good defense that isn’t going to do you any favors. The play on the field has to be better and the play calling has to be better. This offense has been far too reliant on third down conversions to be successful since 2005. It’s alright to occasionally pick up first downs on first down. The margin for error is too small when you are always in third down situations.
If there is a ray of hope, the Bengals did look like they were breaking out the no huddle in spurts against Houston. Atlanta used the no huddle very effectively against the Bears last week to keep a defense with little depth on the field. I don’t expect the Bengals to run all over this team, but they need to do enough to keep the play action options open. Chris Henry and Chad 85 should be match-up problems for the Bears corners outside and Andre Caldwell and Coles could create problems in the deep middle zone. Run after the catch is important against a team like this that makes you earn every first down. The safeties will play the Bengals very deep, so it may end up that they follow the Lions lead and pass to set up the run. I’d like to see more of the dig routes on the hashes to Chad and Chris Henry, those have been very effective this season. Pass protection should hold up pretty well against the Bears, but whoever is playing Right Tackle may need help with Ogunleye.
As much as this offense has struggled, this game worries me. If the Bengals could manage more than 23 points only once thus far, I can’t see them doing it this week. Maybe more of the offensive control will be put into the hands of Carson Palmer this week. One can hope.
When the Bears have the ball:
What happened to Matt Forte and the running game for the Bears? This guy was the most complete back in the NFL last year, but has only one 100 yard rushing game and has been ineffective in the redzone. Yes, this team has Jay Cutler and a dynamic vertical pass attack, but like the Houston Texans, it’s really about getting the guy in the backfield going.
Last week, the Texans basically abandoned a traditional running game, instead getting Slaton involved in the screen passing game. This was extremely effective against a Bengals team that is very aggressive in bringing the blitz. This will be a blueprint other teams will follow, and the Bears use Forte in much the same manner. Against the Falcons, Forte was split outside and used in the bubble screen game the same way Slaton was on his touchdown pass last Sunday. The Bears also like to use the speed of receiver Devin Hester in the short pass/screen game as well. The Bengals will have to show more discipline in recognition and better tackling to defeat the screens they will see the rest of this season. With the exception of the Jacoby Jones busted coverage touchdown, almost every big play for the Texans came on some sort of screen. It reminded me of the Eagles v Patriots Super Bowl where time and again the blitz was defeated by the screen. These are basic offensive concepts that the Bengal coaches better figure out in a hurry.
The Bears do not have a traditional #1 receiver like all of the teams the Bengals have faced to this point, so it will be interesting to see how Mike Zimmer decides to play the coverage. To this point, they’ve rolled help to the #1’s side, making complimentary players beat them. (Even as badly as they played against the Texans, if you take out the first screen play to Andre Johnson he wouldn’t have finished with 100 yards). Still, this is a team that is giving up way too many plays over 20 yards in the passing game. Even with solid corners in JJoseph and Leon Hall, defenses are targeting and beating the nickel and safety and backer coverage in the middle of the field. The injuries and lack of continuity of the safeties was evident against Houston. Chicago features the already mentioned Hester and Jonny Knox, college teammate of Bernard Scott, both of whom are extremely fast deep threat receivers. Knox has scored in four straight games, and it will take safety help to keep him from scoring in this one. The Bengals have played a lot of single high safety, blitzing the other or doubling with him, so it will be interesting to see how they play this game. What is certain is that they will have chances at interceptions from Cutler, so they need to be on their game.
Jay Cutler is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL. He makes throws no one else will even attempt; he also misses throwing balls no one else will attempt. When I watch this guy play, I see a young Brett Favre. You’re going to win some games because of him, and you’re going to lose some games because of him. What he does well is make plays. He is mobile and can extend plays much the way this defense has seen Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers do. He can run, but will look to throw on the run before taking off. When he loses accuracy, it’s typically on balls thrown too high with too much on them, so tips and overthrows will provide the secondary with opportunities. The Bears boot Cutler out of play action and will look to the middle of the field for TE Greg Olsen or Earl Bennett. On third down, Cutler will primarily look to Hester and Olsen depending on the matchup, favoring a man coverage match-up where their guy can outrun coverage. What the Bengals want to do is force Cutler to throw to Knox on third down on shorter routes because he is small and cannot shield the defensive back or break tackles well. Olsen and Forte will be used much the way Slaton and Owen Daniels were used by the Texans, so I hope everyone watched extra film this week.
The Bears Achilles heal (sorry Antwan Odom) is their offensive line. This not a very good run blocking line outside of Center Olin Kreutz. Tackles Orlando Pace and Chris Williams are better in pass protection and both guards are below average NFL players. Teams have been able to get into the interior of this line, disrupting run plays and forcing Cutler to roll out. The Bengals must exploit this, sending twists and stunts at these guards, especially in light of the loss of Odom on the outside. On pass downs, I’d look for Johnathan Fanene to line up at tackle and for the Bengals to use Rey Maualuga as a blitzer on inside rushes. If they can pressure Cutler, the Bengals can create turnovers and win. They didn’t get much heat on Matt Schaub and they got carved up. When Cutler avoids turnovers, this is a very tough team to beat.
The Bears have struggled in the redzone and have turned the ball over a bunch down there. The Bengals have played pretty well defensively in that area and have a ball magnet in JJoseph. The redzone defense will be key to the outcome of this game.
The Bengals are depleted along the D-line, so it will be interesting to see how this unit responds. Domata Peko is more than likely out, Tank Johnson is hurting, and Odom is done for the year. Can this team survive the loss of these guys? The linebackers and safeties had a horrible game against the Texans. Can they bounce back? If they can’t, they can’t win.
Teams:
The Bears have very solid returners in Daniel Manning and Devin Hester. This is a pretty even match-up, so you can’t afford to give up points or significant yards to the Bears on returns. The Bengals need solid performances from Caldwell and/or Scott on kicks and Cosby on punts for any edge they can get. Caldwell looked very indecisive on kicks last week. At least the Bengals look like they can score on field goals now that St. Louis is gone, because this game will probably come down to a late field goal.
Prediction:
I hate this game because it’s going to be an ugly one. I keep waiting for this offense to live up to its potential, but am coming to the conclusion that it can’t under Bob Bratkowski. If they can’t score more than 18, they won’t win. The defense, even under-manned, has the chance to get points in this one and they may have to. With the injuries to the Dline, I worry about the pass rush relying too much on the blitz and rookie Michael Johnson. If this team can’t pressure, they can’t win. They’ve given up big plays and the Bears can exploit this. Can the Bengals really lose two straight at home?
For the love of Christmas, I hope the offense comes to the party. All the talk is about Ced Benson going against his old team. I really don’t care about that. The offensive line has to take this game on their shoulders and wear down a thin defense, especially in the second half. Maybe they can take a page from the Texans playbook and use more screens to get the chains moving. Maybe Carson can carve up a pretty weak secondary the way he would’ve last week if anyone wanted to hang on to the ball. Maybe, a lot of maybe’s.
Maybe the Bengals win another 23-20 game with a late field goal. Maybe.
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