I hear a lot of people talk $h!t about the Pirates, but since they've hired Neal Huntington in 2007, they've been moving in the right direction.
On a day that the contending teams are supposed to be the most active, the Pirates were buying just as much as selling. Today they've ended up with a new starting Catcher, a AAA ShortStop, $3M cash, 2 AAA Outfielders (John Bowker I like a whole lot), and a young big league reliever. All for spare parts they had no use for next season.
Getting Catcher Chris Snyder was especially deft as they've struggled for several years to keep their own Ryan Doumit on the field healthy. Doumit was horrible defensively anyhow, really struggling to throw out runners, but is a very solid bat from both sides of the plate. If they can't move him in a trade, look for him to start at 1B for this team next year.
For the Pirates, the reputation as a team that always sells off their talent is an unfair reality. Aramis Ramirez was traded before Huntington came on board. The trades of Xavier Nady, Demaso Marte, Jason Bay, and Nate McLouth all brought back decent value for guys that weren't going to be in the long-term plans of the organization. Did they all work out, no. Are they better off for having made the moves, yes.
Nady and Marte brought back Jeff Karstens (an okay starter) and Jose Tabata, who has shown himself to be a promising star outfielder. Tabata, McCutcheon, Walker, Alvarez and Snyder should form a nice core of position players for awhile. Karstens still has the potential to be a top to middle of the rotation guy, for them. He'd be a #4 or #5 for most other teams.
The Jason Bay deal is probably the one to be most critical about. The only valuable thing the Pirates got out that deal was two marginally average years of 3B from Andy LaRoche. At the time, the Pirates needed warm bodies on the big league club and that's about all they got. I liked LaRoche and thought a change of scenery would allow him to develop into a solid player, but it never happened.
The McLouth deal was almost addition by subtraction. McLouth really isn't a centerfielder, isn't really a leadoff guy, and isn't really a power guy. Yet he was trying to be all three for Pittsburgh. Worse yet, he was blocking Andrew McCutcheon, who is better at all three than McLouth. The fact that they freed AM up AND got some prospects in the deal made it worthwhile. Pitcher Charlie Morton hasn't been able to do much except lose at the big league level and that brings me to the one big criticism of Huntington.
Neal Huntington has really struggled to acquire good, young starting pitching. They've done a nice job of drafting or acquiring good position players, but pitching is another story. If Paul Maholm and Zach Duke are your best starters, you're not a very good team. No wonder the Pirates have some of the worst starting pitching numbers in the bigs in 2010.
At least they aren't going out and overpaying for crappy veterans like Matt Morris anymore. If you're going to be crappy, be young, cheap and crappy. The future still doesn't look very bright for the rotation. Brad Lincoln has shown some promise, but probably isn't a top of the rotation type guy. There don't appear to be any top pitching guys in the system behind him. That's going to have to change if this team is going to start winning.
As I said, I think this organization is moving in the right direction, but there's a long way to go when you're at the bottom. It's still better to be a Pirates fan than to be an Astros fan these days. I take Neal Huntington over most GM's in the game, and I'd certainly take him over Ed Wade.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Trade deadline passes and Reds do....nothing.
Surprised, no. Disappointed, a little. I can't believe they are going to stand pat with the bullpen setup as is. Cordero blew the game last night but has been decent. Masset has pitched better. Rhodes has been great, but has regressed to career norms the last few weeks. Still, any confidence in the guys behind that. They've got some promising young arms, but no one proven who you can count on in the 7th inning of a playoff game.
This pitching is not good enough to win a playoff series, and I still don't think any contending team has Johnny Gomes batting 5th.
The market for relief pitching wasn't good in terms of price, so you can understand the lack of a move, but you'd still like to think there was room for improvement. Especially since this organization hasn't been in the playoffs since 95. There going to hear it from the fans if they don't make the playoffs.
This pitching is not good enough to win a playoff series, and I still don't think any contending team has Johnny Gomes batting 5th.
The market for relief pitching wasn't good in terms of price, so you can understand the lack of a move, but you'd still like to think there was room for improvement. Especially since this organization hasn't been in the playoffs since 95. There going to hear it from the fans if they don't make the playoffs.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Andre the Giant sidelined again....CRAAAAPPPP!
Andre's Smith's foot still isn't healed and he's out of shape. They may PUP him for the first six weeks. That sucks, as he is extremely important to this team.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
The REAL impact of T.O. on the Bengals
Basically, the way I see it, T.O. is a $2M insurance policy for Antonio Bryant's knee. The latest rumors have Bryant potentially going on the Physically Unable to Participate list (meaning he'd be out the first 6 weeks of the season) if his recovery from offseason knee surgery continues at a snails pace. Both guys are outside receivers primarily, although T.O. has played some slot, so I don't see a lot of Chad Johnson, T.O. and Bryant together (that's with Bryant healthy). The biggest concern the national talking heads are worried about is locker room chemistry. I'm more worried about how this impacts the roster, and how it impacts situational personnel packages.
I heard this morning, someone on 700 WLW refer to T.O. as the biggest free agent signing in the history of the Bengals. Really? Seems like they gave a 4 year, $28M contract to Bryant right after T.O.'s initial visit. Didn't T.O. just sign a 1 year, $2M deal? I'm no math wizard, but clearly Bryant has to be viewed as the bigger signing. He's the better player, when healthy, and would clearly be the starter opposite Chad.
So that said, my biggest concern is not how T.O. impacts Bryant or even Chad, but how he impacts Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley and even Jermaine Gresham. Caldwell had some great moments last year, as the primary slot receiver and a returner. Marvin Lewis has said that Caldwell is amongst the most improved players from last season. I do not want to see T.O. stunt his growth.
Shipley is a very promising player, primarily from the slot. I heard minicamp comparisons to Wes Welker, who has to be viewed as the best in the business at that position. Shipley also has return ability, which makes not only the 53 man roster interesting but the active 45 as well.
Gresham will not be impacted as directly, but I hope the coaches don't try to use more 4 wideout sets in lieu of 3 wides and Gresham in manageable down and distance passing situations. Gresham has the makings of a true impact player in the middle of the field, and a safety net for Carson Palmer. I don't want to see his development short changed for the sake of aging veteran receivers egos.
The Bengals will more than likely dress 5 wides on the game day 45 man roster, three of which will probably not contribute to special teams. If the first three are Chad, TO and Bryant, the last two will have to be slot guys AND teamers. That means Caldwell and Shipley.
The guy in the most precarious spot may be Quan Cosby, especially if Shipley or Pacman Jones or anyone else on the 45 can emerge as a legit punt returner. Hopefully they can, because I never want to see Cosby running routes again. He dropped as many as he caught last year, which is unacceptable for a role player.
Adding TO means even more of a scrum for the 6th and last receiver spot on the 53 man roster. Obviously, Jerome Simpson is more than likely done, going down as one of the biggest busts in the Lewis era. Matt Jones would not likely make the team now either. That leaves Cosby and Maurice Purify, a practice squad member, as the potential incumbents against new comers Dezmon Briscoe and Freddie Brown. The decision will likely come down to special teams ability, with the losers moved to the practice squad if not claimed.
The punt returner question is one to watch very closely in camp, and is a spot directly impacted by the signing of another non-teams receiver. Am I against the move? Absolutely not. It's nice to see and hear the Bengals get some national attention for a perceived positive reason. It's also nice to give Carson Palmer as many weapons as possible in a season where they have to play better offensively to get back to the playoffs. I'm not a TO fan however, nor am I a big fan of Chad's, so the soap opera doesn't interest me. What interests me is the development of a deep and lethal offense, AND dynamic special teams. TO impacts both.
I heard this morning, someone on 700 WLW refer to T.O. as the biggest free agent signing in the history of the Bengals. Really? Seems like they gave a 4 year, $28M contract to Bryant right after T.O.'s initial visit. Didn't T.O. just sign a 1 year, $2M deal? I'm no math wizard, but clearly Bryant has to be viewed as the bigger signing. He's the better player, when healthy, and would clearly be the starter opposite Chad.
So that said, my biggest concern is not how T.O. impacts Bryant or even Chad, but how he impacts Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley and even Jermaine Gresham. Caldwell had some great moments last year, as the primary slot receiver and a returner. Marvin Lewis has said that Caldwell is amongst the most improved players from last season. I do not want to see T.O. stunt his growth.
Shipley is a very promising player, primarily from the slot. I heard minicamp comparisons to Wes Welker, who has to be viewed as the best in the business at that position. Shipley also has return ability, which makes not only the 53 man roster interesting but the active 45 as well.
Gresham will not be impacted as directly, but I hope the coaches don't try to use more 4 wideout sets in lieu of 3 wides and Gresham in manageable down and distance passing situations. Gresham has the makings of a true impact player in the middle of the field, and a safety net for Carson Palmer. I don't want to see his development short changed for the sake of aging veteran receivers egos.
The Bengals will more than likely dress 5 wides on the game day 45 man roster, three of which will probably not contribute to special teams. If the first three are Chad, TO and Bryant, the last two will have to be slot guys AND teamers. That means Caldwell and Shipley.
The guy in the most precarious spot may be Quan Cosby, especially if Shipley or Pacman Jones or anyone else on the 45 can emerge as a legit punt returner. Hopefully they can, because I never want to see Cosby running routes again. He dropped as many as he caught last year, which is unacceptable for a role player.
Adding TO means even more of a scrum for the 6th and last receiver spot on the 53 man roster. Obviously, Jerome Simpson is more than likely done, going down as one of the biggest busts in the Lewis era. Matt Jones would not likely make the team now either. That leaves Cosby and Maurice Purify, a practice squad member, as the potential incumbents against new comers Dezmon Briscoe and Freddie Brown. The decision will likely come down to special teams ability, with the losers moved to the practice squad if not claimed.
The punt returner question is one to watch very closely in camp, and is a spot directly impacted by the signing of another non-teams receiver. Am I against the move? Absolutely not. It's nice to see and hear the Bengals get some national attention for a perceived positive reason. It's also nice to give Carson Palmer as many weapons as possible in a season where they have to play better offensively to get back to the playoffs. I'm not a TO fan however, nor am I a big fan of Chad's, so the soap opera doesn't interest me. What interests me is the development of a deep and lethal offense, AND dynamic special teams. TO impacts both.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
NFL Preview-2010
***Editor's Note: While I'm showing my predictions vs. the current Vegas lines, I'm not encouraging you to put any action down. It is not my fault if you can't make your car payment because I didn't give the (insert team name here) enough respect.***
It's really tough to preview the records for the whole league with so much change from year to year. On the low end, you should figure 4 to 5 new playoff teams each season, with 6 or even 7 not being out of the norm.
For some reason, whether it's my contrarian nature, or perhaps a little bit of Bengal homer-ness, I think this season we might not see as much turnover as we have this decade. Of course, this is all baring injury. There's no way to have predicted what would happen two years ago to the Bengals and Patriots once their starting quarterbacks went down.
If everything stays as is, here's my prediction for division records (with Vegas predictions in parenthesis):
NFC-Total wins 127 (Vegas-127.5-Under)
NFC East-2 playoff teams
34 wins (34.5 wins-Under)
Dallas 11-5 (10 wins-Over)
NYG 9-7 (8.5 wins-Over)
Phi 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Was 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Dallas is a legit SB contender, I believe the Giants will be resurgent. Philly is in transition, and I don't like Washington's skill position players. Almost anything can happen in this division though.
NFC North-2 playoff teams
31 wins (32-Under)
Green Bay 11-5 (9.5-Over)
Minnesota 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Chicago 7-9 (8-Under)
Detroit 4-12 (5-Under)
I'm counting on #4 to be back with the Pack, but I still think Green Bay is the division winner. I'm not sold on Chicago and Detroit is still Detroit.
NFC South-1 playoff team
32 wins (32.5-Under)
New Orleans 11-5 (10.5-Over)
Atlanta 9-7 (9-Push)
Carolina 7-9 (7-Push)
Tampa 5-11 (6-Under)
Atlanta has a legit shot at a playoff spot, but I'll give to the Giants since I have a little more faith in their track record. If you asked me to pick one division where something crazy might happen, I'd probably pick this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans fell on their face this year, and Atlanta ended up better than expected. That said, for this, I'll stick with New Orleans.
NFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins (28.5-Over)
Seattle 9-7 (7.5-Over)
SF 9-7 (8.5-Over)
Arizona 8-8 (7.5-Over)
StL 4-12 (5-Under)
I think this division will be more competitive than most think, and I'm not ready to concede it to the 49ers. The Niners may very well end up with it, but I really think Seattle has one more playoff shot with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Arizona will be decent too, with the addition of Alan Faneca to a team that is going to want to run more now that Kurt Warner is gone. I predict you'll still have a 9 win division winner, but I'll take the Hawks to be that team.
AFC-Total Wins 129 (Vegas 130 wins-Under)
AFC East-2 playoff teams
32 wins-(32.5-Under)
NYJets 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Miami 9-7 (8.5-Over)
NE 9-7 (9.5-Under)
Buf 4-12 (5-Under)
This division is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I've heard a lot of talk about the Jets in the Superbowl, but this was a 9-7 team that barely made the playoffs and got hot at the right time. Good, yes. Great, no. Miami was bulldog tough last year but couldn't close out games. New England is always a playoff contender with Tom Brady, but I don't love the supporting cast this year. I don't feel great about taking the Pats out of the playoffs, but one of these three isn't making it, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if only one team makes it.
AFC North-2 playoff teams
33 wins-(32.5-Over)
Baltimore 10-6 (10-Push)
Cincinnati 10-6 (8-Over)
Pittsburgh 9-7 (9-Push)
Cleveland 4-12 (5.5-Under)
I have a hard time not giving the division to Baltimore with their advantage in schedule. The Bengals will be better than 8 wins, but could easily finish 9-7 instead of 10-6. I think it's going to take 10-6 to get them into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a sheik pick to replace the Bengals in the playoffs, and Vegas would agree with that. I just can't believe that without their starting QB for the first 4 games (where they could easily go 1-3), that they are going to get to 10 wins.
AFC South-1 playoff team
34 wins (34 wins-Push)
Indy 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Tenn 8-8 (8 wins-Push)
Jax 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Hou 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Indy is still the class of the division and will be in the hunt again for the #1 AFC seed. There could easily be a surprise team lurking in this division too, but I don't think it'll be the Texans. They've been a trendy pick as well, and are talking big, but they've never been good on the road and will miss offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. QB Matt Shaub also amazingly stayed healthy all of last year. The schedule is tough, and all that adds up to a sub .500 record for me. Tennessee could get back to 2008 form, and that would shake up the whole AFC playoff picture. Jacksonville could also improve dramatically. This team was in the AFC Championship game just 3 years ago.
AFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins-(31 wins-Under)
San Diego 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Denver 7-9 (7.5 wins-Under)
KC 6-10 (6.5 wins-Under)
Oakland 5-11 (6 wins-Under)
San Diego runs away with this putrid division again. Count me amongst the Denver haters (I'm still not over the Immaculate Deflection game). I don't believe this team was as good as their record indicated last season, and they once again traded away their best offensive player for the second straight year. Josh McDaniels is in for a rude awakening, one in which his team plays more like the end of '09 than the beginning. KC and Oakland should be better, and either could win two or three more than I'm predicting. They still won't sniff the playoffs.
*If you paid attention, Vegas is actually predicting 257.5 wins. There are only 256 possible wins.
You'll have to tune back in for playoff and Superbowl predictions. I actually find those type of predictions ridiculous, but it doesn't make much sense to predict all the records and not taking a stab at the playoffs.
It's really tough to preview the records for the whole league with so much change from year to year. On the low end, you should figure 4 to 5 new playoff teams each season, with 6 or even 7 not being out of the norm.
For some reason, whether it's my contrarian nature, or perhaps a little bit of Bengal homer-ness, I think this season we might not see as much turnover as we have this decade. Of course, this is all baring injury. There's no way to have predicted what would happen two years ago to the Bengals and Patriots once their starting quarterbacks went down.
If everything stays as is, here's my prediction for division records (with Vegas predictions in parenthesis):
NFC-Total wins 127 (Vegas-127.5-Under)
NFC East-2 playoff teams
34 wins (34.5 wins-Under)
Dallas 11-5 (10 wins-Over)
NYG 9-7 (8.5 wins-Over)
Phi 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Was 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Dallas is a legit SB contender, I believe the Giants will be resurgent. Philly is in transition, and I don't like Washington's skill position players. Almost anything can happen in this division though.
NFC North-2 playoff teams
31 wins (32-Under)
Green Bay 11-5 (9.5-Over)
Minnesota 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Chicago 7-9 (8-Under)
Detroit 4-12 (5-Under)
I'm counting on #4 to be back with the Pack, but I still think Green Bay is the division winner. I'm not sold on Chicago and Detroit is still Detroit.
NFC South-1 playoff team
32 wins (32.5-Under)
New Orleans 11-5 (10.5-Over)
Atlanta 9-7 (9-Push)
Carolina 7-9 (7-Push)
Tampa 5-11 (6-Under)
Atlanta has a legit shot at a playoff spot, but I'll give to the Giants since I have a little more faith in their track record. If you asked me to pick one division where something crazy might happen, I'd probably pick this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans fell on their face this year, and Atlanta ended up better than expected. That said, for this, I'll stick with New Orleans.
NFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins (28.5-Over)
Seattle 9-7 (7.5-Over)
SF 9-7 (8.5-Over)
Arizona 8-8 (7.5-Over)
StL 4-12 (5-Under)
I think this division will be more competitive than most think, and I'm not ready to concede it to the 49ers. The Niners may very well end up with it, but I really think Seattle has one more playoff shot with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Arizona will be decent too, with the addition of Alan Faneca to a team that is going to want to run more now that Kurt Warner is gone. I predict you'll still have a 9 win division winner, but I'll take the Hawks to be that team.
AFC-Total Wins 129 (Vegas 130 wins-Under)
AFC East-2 playoff teams
32 wins-(32.5-Under)
NYJets 10-6 (9.5-Over)
Miami 9-7 (8.5-Over)
NE 9-7 (9.5-Under)
Buf 4-12 (5-Under)
This division is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I've heard a lot of talk about the Jets in the Superbowl, but this was a 9-7 team that barely made the playoffs and got hot at the right time. Good, yes. Great, no. Miami was bulldog tough last year but couldn't close out games. New England is always a playoff contender with Tom Brady, but I don't love the supporting cast this year. I don't feel great about taking the Pats out of the playoffs, but one of these three isn't making it, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if only one team makes it.
AFC North-2 playoff teams
33 wins-(32.5-Over)
Baltimore 10-6 (10-Push)
Cincinnati 10-6 (8-Over)
Pittsburgh 9-7 (9-Push)
Cleveland 4-12 (5.5-Under)
I have a hard time not giving the division to Baltimore with their advantage in schedule. The Bengals will be better than 8 wins, but could easily finish 9-7 instead of 10-6. I think it's going to take 10-6 to get them into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a sheik pick to replace the Bengals in the playoffs, and Vegas would agree with that. I just can't believe that without their starting QB for the first 4 games (where they could easily go 1-3), that they are going to get to 10 wins.
AFC South-1 playoff team
34 wins (34 wins-Push)
Indy 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Tenn 8-8 (8 wins-Push)
Jax 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Hou 7-9 (8 wins-Under)
Indy is still the class of the division and will be in the hunt again for the #1 AFC seed. There could easily be a surprise team lurking in this division too, but I don't think it'll be the Texans. They've been a trendy pick as well, and are talking big, but they've never been good on the road and will miss offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. QB Matt Shaub also amazingly stayed healthy all of last year. The schedule is tough, and all that adds up to a sub .500 record for me. Tennessee could get back to 2008 form, and that would shake up the whole AFC playoff picture. Jacksonville could also improve dramatically. This team was in the AFC Championship game just 3 years ago.
AFC West-1 playoff team
30 wins-(31 wins-Under)
San Diego 12-4 (11 wins-Over)
Denver 7-9 (7.5 wins-Under)
KC 6-10 (6.5 wins-Under)
Oakland 5-11 (6 wins-Under)
San Diego runs away with this putrid division again. Count me amongst the Denver haters (I'm still not over the Immaculate Deflection game). I don't believe this team was as good as their record indicated last season, and they once again traded away their best offensive player for the second straight year. Josh McDaniels is in for a rude awakening, one in which his team plays more like the end of '09 than the beginning. KC and Oakland should be better, and either could win two or three more than I'm predicting. They still won't sniff the playoffs.
*If you paid attention, Vegas is actually predicting 257.5 wins. There are only 256 possible wins.
You'll have to tune back in for playoff and Superbowl predictions. I actually find those type of predictions ridiculous, but it doesn't make much sense to predict all the records and not taking a stab at the playoffs.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Vegas Baby!
Vegas currently has the Bengals as an 8 win team, behind both Baltimore (10) and Pittsburgh (9). If you've read my analysis of the schedule, I think that's 2 games low. Even if the team stumbles more than I expect, they should still win 9. Needless to say, I'm considering putting some money where my mouth is and I never do that.
Based on SuperBowl winning odds (25/1), the Bengals are the #13 team in the NFL according to the odds makers.
There are some interesting numbers in the Vegas odds. I feel a post coming on. I said a....
Based on SuperBowl winning odds (25/1), the Bengals are the #13 team in the NFL according to the odds makers.
There are some interesting numbers in the Vegas odds. I feel a post coming on. I said a....
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bengals 2010 Schedule
Before we get into previewing the actual team and getting in depth with the roster, I though it might be interesting to look at this year's schedule. I have to admit that when the opponents were announced for this upcoming season, I felt like I'd been gut punched. Both Superbowl teams, Indy and New Orleans, are on the schedule. The Patriots, Chargers and Jets were all playoff teams. The division already includes perennial playoff teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and then you add playoff hopefuls Miami and Atlanta. That's 11 of 16 games against legitimately good teams, with a combined record 20 games over .500 last year (good for the fourth hardest schedule in the league). You get Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rivers, four of the top five QB's in the league, and Ryan, Flacco, Roethlisberger and Sanchez for good measure. My first reaction was "if this team isn't a lot better than last year, they're going 8-8 this year at best".
After a very productive off-season and a year of growth for many players, I believe this team IS better than last year (We'll go into what I think of the roster and coaching in subsequent posts). I also think, after a more thorough look at the schedule, that there's quite a bit of reason for optimism. You really can't ask for a better setup considering the opponents, so let's take a look in more detail:
Week 1-@New England
This is a tough opener, there's no way to sugar coat it. While I don't think NE is as good as they were two years ago, any team Tom Brady team is formidable. Even a loss isn't the end of the world to start the season, just look at last year's Immaculate Deflection game.
Week 2-Baltimore
The Bengals usually match up pretty well with Baltimore as long as #9 is healthy. The Ravens open up Week 1 at the Jets, so they arguably will be coming off an even tougher opener than Cincy.
Week 3-@Carolina
Carolina is in a bit of a transition period. Even though QB Matt Moore played several games last year after taking over for Jake Delhomme, he's still young and the defense lost their best player in Julius Peppers to free agency. This is usually a physical team, but Cincy is used to playing teams that want to run. Catching a young team early should work in the Bengals favor. The Panthers will also have a road game at New Orleans the next week they may be looking towards.
Week 4-@Cleveland
I don't expect Cleveland to be any good this year, that's probably enough said. Cleveland will also be coming off a road game at Baltimore the previous week.
Week 5-Tampa Bay
This screams trap game to me. Even though it's at home, the bye week is lurking, and it's really hard to tell how good the Bucs will be. Tampa will be coming off a bye after playing Pittsburgh at home, and should be well prepared. The Bengals must maintain focus.
Week 6-Bye
The schedule should have the Bengals at no worse than 4-2 at the bye. I hope it's more like 5-1 because the Alpine stages are dead ahead.
Week 7-@Atlanta
The Falcons are a dangerous team, especially at home. It'll be very interesting to see if they can become a real NFC contender this year. The Bengals will be coming off a bye and the Falcons will be coming off 2 straight road games at Cleveland and at Philly, with their own bye week looming. These are very favorable conditions for a Bengals road win.
Week 8-Miami
Another dangerous opponent. Miami had both Indy and New Orleans dead to rights last year, before pulling a Dennis Green and "letting them off the hook". Fortunately for Cincy, they are catching the Dolphins in the middle of a tough stretch. At Green Bay and a home game against Pittsburgh prior to the Bengal game, and a trip to Baltimore to follow. Late October could bring some cold weather, but I don't think this will affect the run-first Dolphins much. Like Atlanta, it'll be interesting to see just how good the Dolphins are this season. Their schedule looks brutal.
Week 9-STEELER WEEK #1
Are you ready for some Football? Steelers at home on Monday Night, are you serious? PBS will be rocking. I'm getting goosebumps just typing this (literally). This will be the third of three straight road games for the Steelers. I could kiss the schedule makers. At Miami, at New Orleans, at Cincinnati. Have fun with that. Roethlisberger will be back for this stretch of games, but that's no easy task for any team.
Week 10-@Indianoplis
Barring a Manning injury, I'm just going to chalk this up as a big L after a short week. No matter how you look at it, a win in Indy would be a huge upset.
Week 11-Buffalo
After a tough four week stretch against playoff hopefuls, you can't let down here. A payback game against the Jets looms the following Thursday, and you can't have a game like last year's against Oakland in this spot. The Bills will be coming off games against Kansas City, Chicago, and Detroit, so hopefully they won't be prepared to face better competition.
Week 12-@New York Jets
Circle your calendar for Thursday Nov 25th, believe the Bengals will. This game is payback for 37-0 and a playoff loss in back to back weeks to end the promising 2009 campaign. The Jets will be coming off a pretty weak stretch where they'll have played at Detroit, at Cleveland, and Houston at home. Hopefully Andre Johnson has worn out Revis the week before. This is a pretty tough spot for the Bengals, who will more than likely drop a second straight road game on short rest.
Week 13-New Orleans
Out of the frying pan and into the fire, right? Well, like Lee Corso likes to say "not so fast my friend". New Orleans will be playing their second straight road game coming into Cincy, after what will be an emotionally charged game at Dallas. (Remember Dallas ended the perfect season in New Orleans last year). It'll be the first week in December, so the elements have to hurt the dome team a little, right? This will be New Orleans first cold weather game of the year. Again, thank you schedule makers.
Week 14-@Pittsburgh (STEELER WEEK #2)
(Editor's Note: I'm planning on representing in person in my Bernard Scott jersey, yes I will). The Steelers will be coming off two straight road games, at Buffalo and at Baltimore, before welcoming the arch rival Bengals. Again, you can't ask for more from the schedule makers. Even if the Steelers win, playing the Ravens and Bengals in back to back weeks should weaken them for the stretch run.
Week 15-Cleveland
Again, after a tough stretch, the Bengals get a little breather before facing the last climb. This will be the third straight road game for the Browns, who will have faced Miami, and a December game in Buffalo, before heading to PBS. This game is an absolute lock. Bengal win, guaranteed.
Week 16-San Diego
This is San Diego's longest road trip of the year, and their first cold weather game all season. Seriously, the schedule makers are Bengals fans right? Between this trip and a Week 12 trip to Indy (in the dome), the Chargers will face Oakland, Kansas City and San Francisco at home. Not exactly the cream of the NFL crop. I like the Bengals chances in the elements against the vertical passing attack of the Chargers, but this is no lock.
Week 17-@Baltimore
Part of me really hopes this game determines the division (although the other part wants it to have been locked up by the Bengals in week 15). Baltimore will be coming off a four game stretch against Pittsburgh, at Houston, against New Orleans, and then at Cleveland. The Cleveland game should be a bit of a breather, but we all saw what happened to Pittsburgh last year if the weather gets nasty.
See, not as bad as you first thought, right? I figure if the Bengals go no worse than 4-2 in the division, and at least .500 on the road, they'll be around 10-6. They could end up one game on either side of that, but barring injury, I'll stand on 10-6. That may not win the division, but it should solidify a playoff spot. It really comes down to how they start. 5-1 sets them up beautifully, just like last season.
In the next few Bengals posts, we'll get into what I think will be keys to this team's success, and which areas of the roster I'm most and least concerned about.
Here's to another playoff run in 2010. Who Freakin' Dey!!!
After a very productive off-season and a year of growth for many players, I believe this team IS better than last year (We'll go into what I think of the roster and coaching in subsequent posts). I also think, after a more thorough look at the schedule, that there's quite a bit of reason for optimism. You really can't ask for a better setup considering the opponents, so let's take a look in more detail:
Week 1-@New England
This is a tough opener, there's no way to sugar coat it. While I don't think NE is as good as they were two years ago, any team Tom Brady team is formidable. Even a loss isn't the end of the world to start the season, just look at last year's Immaculate Deflection game.
Week 2-Baltimore
The Bengals usually match up pretty well with Baltimore as long as #9 is healthy. The Ravens open up Week 1 at the Jets, so they arguably will be coming off an even tougher opener than Cincy.
Week 3-@Carolina
Carolina is in a bit of a transition period. Even though QB Matt Moore played several games last year after taking over for Jake Delhomme, he's still young and the defense lost their best player in Julius Peppers to free agency. This is usually a physical team, but Cincy is used to playing teams that want to run. Catching a young team early should work in the Bengals favor. The Panthers will also have a road game at New Orleans the next week they may be looking towards.
Week 4-@Cleveland
I don't expect Cleveland to be any good this year, that's probably enough said. Cleveland will also be coming off a road game at Baltimore the previous week.
Week 5-Tampa Bay
This screams trap game to me. Even though it's at home, the bye week is lurking, and it's really hard to tell how good the Bucs will be. Tampa will be coming off a bye after playing Pittsburgh at home, and should be well prepared. The Bengals must maintain focus.
Week 6-Bye
The schedule should have the Bengals at no worse than 4-2 at the bye. I hope it's more like 5-1 because the Alpine stages are dead ahead.
Week 7-@Atlanta
The Falcons are a dangerous team, especially at home. It'll be very interesting to see if they can become a real NFC contender this year. The Bengals will be coming off a bye and the Falcons will be coming off 2 straight road games at Cleveland and at Philly, with their own bye week looming. These are very favorable conditions for a Bengals road win.
Week 8-Miami
Another dangerous opponent. Miami had both Indy and New Orleans dead to rights last year, before pulling a Dennis Green and "letting them off the hook". Fortunately for Cincy, they are catching the Dolphins in the middle of a tough stretch. At Green Bay and a home game against Pittsburgh prior to the Bengal game, and a trip to Baltimore to follow. Late October could bring some cold weather, but I don't think this will affect the run-first Dolphins much. Like Atlanta, it'll be interesting to see just how good the Dolphins are this season. Their schedule looks brutal.
Week 9-STEELER WEEK #1
Are you ready for some Football? Steelers at home on Monday Night, are you serious? PBS will be rocking. I'm getting goosebumps just typing this (literally). This will be the third of three straight road games for the Steelers. I could kiss the schedule makers. At Miami, at New Orleans, at Cincinnati. Have fun with that. Roethlisberger will be back for this stretch of games, but that's no easy task for any team.
Week 10-@Indianoplis
Barring a Manning injury, I'm just going to chalk this up as a big L after a short week. No matter how you look at it, a win in Indy would be a huge upset.
Week 11-Buffalo
After a tough four week stretch against playoff hopefuls, you can't let down here. A payback game against the Jets looms the following Thursday, and you can't have a game like last year's against Oakland in this spot. The Bills will be coming off games against Kansas City, Chicago, and Detroit, so hopefully they won't be prepared to face better competition.
Week 12-@New York Jets
Circle your calendar for Thursday Nov 25th, believe the Bengals will. This game is payback for 37-0 and a playoff loss in back to back weeks to end the promising 2009 campaign. The Jets will be coming off a pretty weak stretch where they'll have played at Detroit, at Cleveland, and Houston at home. Hopefully Andre Johnson has worn out Revis the week before. This is a pretty tough spot for the Bengals, who will more than likely drop a second straight road game on short rest.
Week 13-New Orleans
Out of the frying pan and into the fire, right? Well, like Lee Corso likes to say "not so fast my friend". New Orleans will be playing their second straight road game coming into Cincy, after what will be an emotionally charged game at Dallas. (Remember Dallas ended the perfect season in New Orleans last year). It'll be the first week in December, so the elements have to hurt the dome team a little, right? This will be New Orleans first cold weather game of the year. Again, thank you schedule makers.
Week 14-@Pittsburgh (STEELER WEEK #2)
(Editor's Note: I'm planning on representing in person in my Bernard Scott jersey, yes I will). The Steelers will be coming off two straight road games, at Buffalo and at Baltimore, before welcoming the arch rival Bengals. Again, you can't ask for more from the schedule makers. Even if the Steelers win, playing the Ravens and Bengals in back to back weeks should weaken them for the stretch run.
Week 15-Cleveland
Again, after a tough stretch, the Bengals get a little breather before facing the last climb. This will be the third straight road game for the Browns, who will have faced Miami, and a December game in Buffalo, before heading to PBS. This game is an absolute lock. Bengal win, guaranteed.
Week 16-San Diego
This is San Diego's longest road trip of the year, and their first cold weather game all season. Seriously, the schedule makers are Bengals fans right? Between this trip and a Week 12 trip to Indy (in the dome), the Chargers will face Oakland, Kansas City and San Francisco at home. Not exactly the cream of the NFL crop. I like the Bengals chances in the elements against the vertical passing attack of the Chargers, but this is no lock.
Week 17-@Baltimore
Part of me really hopes this game determines the division (although the other part wants it to have been locked up by the Bengals in week 15). Baltimore will be coming off a four game stretch against Pittsburgh, at Houston, against New Orleans, and then at Cleveland. The Cleveland game should be a bit of a breather, but we all saw what happened to Pittsburgh last year if the weather gets nasty.
See, not as bad as you first thought, right? I figure if the Bengals go no worse than 4-2 in the division, and at least .500 on the road, they'll be around 10-6. They could end up one game on either side of that, but barring injury, I'll stand on 10-6. That may not win the division, but it should solidify a playoff spot. It really comes down to how they start. 5-1 sets them up beautifully, just like last season.
In the next few Bengals posts, we'll get into what I think will be keys to this team's success, and which areas of the roster I'm most and least concerned about.
Here's to another playoff run in 2010. Who Freakin' Dey!!!
Glad that's done.....
Now that we've covered the review of 2009, we can start the fun part of previewing 2010 for the Bengals and the NFL. Those posts (I'll break them up to keep them more manageable) will begin in the next couple of days.
Training camps start tomorrow for some teams, and next week for the Bengals. Football is back!!!!!
Training camps start tomorrow for some teams, and next week for the Bengals. Football is back!!!!!
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Playoffs
(The plan to play the Jets again backfires and the Bengals playoff game mirrored the season. Underachieving passing game, lead by a critical Vern Coles fumble ending a promising drive, under-manned over-aggressive defense giving up big plays, and the horrible kicking game all lead to a loss. At least the Jets would go on to make some noise, beating the Chargers before running out of steam against the Colts in the AFC Championship game. Chad OchoCinco (forever known as Chad Johson by me) promised he would change his name back if he couldn't get off Revis Island 2 games in a row. He didn't, and in typical Chad fashion, won't change his name back. I actually can't stand Chad and am ever so happy they got Antonio Bryant).
engals v. Jets 2-Playoffs
The Bengals are going to win this game. That’s right I said it. So what if they got spanked last week. If there’s one important lesson that must be learned about the NFL, it’s that you must take things one week at a time. This week, the Bengals will give an entirely different effort.
Marvin Lewis may have said they were playing to win last week, but after breaking down the game (okay, the first half), it didn’t look that way. Not only were they resting their two best Dlinemen, their best safety and their best running back and tight end, the defensive schemes in particular were vanilla. It’s hard to say what the offensive scheme was considering that was the worst game I’ve ever seen Bengal receivers play. All in all, it looked like the effort of a team content to play the same opponent again the next week. The Jets were playing for their playoff lives and it showed.
This is not to say that the Jets are not a good football team, they are. Are they the Super Bowl favorite, as their demonstrative coach would like everyone to think? No. They are very similar in build and style to the Bengals, and I fully expect a more even match this week. Let’s get into the reasons why.
When the Jets have the Ball:
The Jets want to run first, second, and third and then look to set up play action. They do this because that’s what fits their personnel and because they have a rookie quarterback who’s thrown more picks than touchdowns. It makes sense. They run a lot of unbalanced formations with either an extra tackle at TE, or double TE’s to one side. When they do this, they are very predictable as to play and direction (much like the Bengals). They almost tell you what’s coming and dare you to stop it. Once again, this fits the M.O. of their head coach.
Against the mainstream, the Jets will run in pass situations. The Bengals learned this the hard way. 2nd and long, and 3rd and medium down and distance are still run first situations for the Jets. The Jets picked up several first downs against base 4-3 formations where the Bengals had their pass personnel on the field. On a big 3rd and 4 out of a 3 WR set, the Jets took advantage of Johnathan Fanene being at DT and Brandon Johnson in at the SOLB and drove both guys out of the play to pick up the first down. I would fully expect with the return of Domata Peko and Robert Geathers, that the Bengals will stay in base defense and personnel groupings in these situations. Only on absolutely obvious pass downs will you see Fanene at the DT position.
The Jets also bring a running quarterback to the table, something the Bengals really haven’t seen all season. This isn’t even a true Wildcat, like the Browns occasionally run with Josh Cribbs. Not only does Brad Smith line up under center, but they also run a Pistol type set where they can run a true option. Some of these Bengal defenders probably haven’t seen that since college. With a week to prepare for what they just saw, I can’t see Mike Zimmer’s defense not being ready to stop those plays. If the Jets rely on Brad Smith to continually convert third downs like they did last week, they will be in trouble.
The Jets offensive line is terrific and FB Tony Richardson and the TE’s can all block. The Oline, especially the interior guys Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Alan Faneca are very quick off the snap and are dangerous in open space. Last week showed us way too many situations where these guys were one on one with LB’s. With Rey Maualuga out, the Bengals lack a physical presence to match these guys. The key will be for the interior DLine guys to at least get a hand on the interior OLine guys before they get to the second level.
The Bengals defense also did not blitz in the first matchup. They played straight up, without their best players, and got knocked around. Expect a much more aggressive front with more safety pressures now that Chris Crocker is back. The Bengals played the multiple receiver sets of the Jets with mostly base 4-3, sliding the safety down as the nickel corner. I expect to see the same type of look this week, but with Crocker at the nickel instead of Tom Nelson. That leaves Chinny Ndukwe as the single high safety, protecting the deep ball. This alignment allows the Bengals the flexibility to bring that nickel back on a blitz or drop to 2 deep. Crocker is also a superior run defender, so the Jets will NOT be raking up 250 rushing yards this week with he amd Peko and Geathers back.
The key will be winning on first down and putting the Jets in obvious pass situations. Mark Sanchez has pretty ugly numbers this season, especially on the road. He is best in play action and short yardage situations, where the threat of his run game gives him one on one matchups to throw to. He has the makings of a good quarterback, but he’s a long way away right now. When the Jets have had to have him carry the load, he’s generally imploded, giving the ball away far too many times. The Bengals will continue to play aggressive man to man coverage on the outsides and dare this guy to beat them. The Jets used some delayed snap counts against the Bengals last week, especially in the shotgun. A young, inexperienced quarterback will find the snap count more difficult in a hostile environment.
Sanchez isn’t the only Jet with turnover issues. Shonn Greene has had fumble problems all season, and was bailed out by an off-sides penalty last week or he’d have had another one. I fully expect at least two turnovers out of the Jets in this game, and that margin may be the key.
This is not to say that the Jets don’t have weapons. Braylon Edwards is still a big play threat, even with his issue with drops. Leon Hall has had problems with big receivers all year, and was tested deep last week. Jericho Cotchery is a very solid receiver, though he is dealing with a hamstring issue. He too is capable of hooking up with Sanchez on a deep strike. Big plays must be avoided. The Bengals must make the Jets be methodical. This game has the makings of a heavy weight fight, and those types of fights usually start with a lot of body blows to setup the knockout. The Bengals can’t let this team land a big shot early.
I fully expect the Jets to come in overconfident from last week, thinking they can just line up and run it down the Bengals throats like last week. Trust me, it won’t be so easy. If the Jets are smart, they will go counter to this and immediately come out with some controlled passes to take advantage of the 8 man fronts they are sure to see. If the Bengals can tackle better than last week, the additions in personnel and aggressiveness should limit the Jets offense.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Wait, I think another Bengal receiver just dropped another pass. Good god, how bad were these guys? I know Darelle Revis is the best corner in football, but even he was beaten on a couple routes early where drops killed any momentum. At least everyone got in on the fun, and hopefully got it out of their system because Carson Palmer has always preferred to attack Rex Ryan’s 46 defense with the pass. He’s been one of the few quarterbacks to consistently beat the Ravens, and judging by how open guys were getting; it seems like the right approach. There is no way in the world this group has that bad a game collectively two weeks in a row.
Not only did the Bengals rest key guys on defense, they also rested Ced Benson and JP Foschi, their best back and best TE (a relative term). I’m not going to say the offense didn’t try, but they didn’t really audible and stuck to what was called. You can tell this when the run against an obvious 9 man front. Not going to get much against that.
Again, this is no slight to a very good Jet D. They are the strength of this team and again demonstrate the personality of their coach. Aggressive, demonstrative and generally in your face. This may be the only team in the league that has the stones to cover Chad 8-5 one on one. They line up in more exotic formations than any other defense and constantly move around prior to the snap. One thing is almost always certain, the Jets are bringing blitzers from somewhere. They put a lot of guys at the line of scrimmage, even in base defense, and have perimeter defenders who are quick to disrupt plays and get into the backfield. This is a formidable group, but they have weaknesses.
For one, their all-world DT Kris Jenkins is out for the year. The Jets are still good against the run, but not as good without him. Their run defense, and pass rush for that matter, is more about overloads and mismatches now. The will overshift in alignment and try to make you check to where they want you to go. This allows their quicker guys to shoot gaps and pursue, things that most defensive fronts don’t do. One example was a first down run that was immediately blown up by OLB Calvin Pace, who flashed in front of RT Dennis Roland and dropped Bernard Scott for a loss. I think the speed of Pace and the inside move caught Roland off guard. Playing these guys a second time in succession should be helpful on plays like that.
The pass defense hinges on Revis. The assumption is that he has half the field locked down and the rest of the defense has the other side. For the most part they are right, but as well as he played against Chad, he was awfully handsy downfield. He got called for one hold and should’ve been flagged for a PI on a deep fade down the sideline. I’d expect, in Cincy, that he’ll get more calls on him than in New Jersey.
The Bengals continue to get stupid penalties on offense, and at this point in the season, I think it’s a given. Can they overcome them and at least avoid them in critical spots? This team could’ve picked up several third downs if not for drops, including a 3rd and 13, but you can’t make a habit of it against this defense. Stay in manageable situations and win the field position battle. There will be chances out there, but the secondary receivers must play better. Andre Caldwell and Vern Coles again must play better. JP Foschi’s return should help as well. This team is in dire need of upgrades at both positions in the offseason.
While I certainly don’t expect an offensive explosion, I do expect a decent performance from the Bengals offense. Carson has seen this defense plenty, and given time, will find holes. He was absolutely on the money last weekend in bad conditions, so I have no worries about how he is playing right now. I know he wants to win, the rest of the guys need to do their parts.
Teams-
The Jets may have a slight edge in teams, but not enough to make a significant difference. The Bengals haven’t had very good returns in some weeks, so maybe they are due. Field position is important in even games.
Prediction-
A much better all-around effort by the Bengals, who understand that everything they’ve done is moot without playoff success. Marvin Lewis and Co. have waited since 2005 to get redemption and I think it’s coming (at least for one week). The Jets spent a lot of energy just to get here and partied like they won the Super Bowl after last week’s win. An already overconfident Rex Ryan is due for a wake-up call when his turnover prone quarterback plays in cold conditions, in a hostile environment, against a stronger Bengal opponent. The Jets are who we think they are: a team with one quality road win, week 1, against the Texans. Welcome to the Jungle boys. Turnovers will tell the story in this one and the Bengals win by a field goal in a game that should be in the low 40’s.
One more week of fun after this one.
engals v. Jets 2-Playoffs
The Bengals are going to win this game. That’s right I said it. So what if they got spanked last week. If there’s one important lesson that must be learned about the NFL, it’s that you must take things one week at a time. This week, the Bengals will give an entirely different effort.
Marvin Lewis may have said they were playing to win last week, but after breaking down the game (okay, the first half), it didn’t look that way. Not only were they resting their two best Dlinemen, their best safety and their best running back and tight end, the defensive schemes in particular were vanilla. It’s hard to say what the offensive scheme was considering that was the worst game I’ve ever seen Bengal receivers play. All in all, it looked like the effort of a team content to play the same opponent again the next week. The Jets were playing for their playoff lives and it showed.
This is not to say that the Jets are not a good football team, they are. Are they the Super Bowl favorite, as their demonstrative coach would like everyone to think? No. They are very similar in build and style to the Bengals, and I fully expect a more even match this week. Let’s get into the reasons why.
When the Jets have the Ball:
The Jets want to run first, second, and third and then look to set up play action. They do this because that’s what fits their personnel and because they have a rookie quarterback who’s thrown more picks than touchdowns. It makes sense. They run a lot of unbalanced formations with either an extra tackle at TE, or double TE’s to one side. When they do this, they are very predictable as to play and direction (much like the Bengals). They almost tell you what’s coming and dare you to stop it. Once again, this fits the M.O. of their head coach.
Against the mainstream, the Jets will run in pass situations. The Bengals learned this the hard way. 2nd and long, and 3rd and medium down and distance are still run first situations for the Jets. The Jets picked up several first downs against base 4-3 formations where the Bengals had their pass personnel on the field. On a big 3rd and 4 out of a 3 WR set, the Jets took advantage of Johnathan Fanene being at DT and Brandon Johnson in at the SOLB and drove both guys out of the play to pick up the first down. I would fully expect with the return of Domata Peko and Robert Geathers, that the Bengals will stay in base defense and personnel groupings in these situations. Only on absolutely obvious pass downs will you see Fanene at the DT position.
The Jets also bring a running quarterback to the table, something the Bengals really haven’t seen all season. This isn’t even a true Wildcat, like the Browns occasionally run with Josh Cribbs. Not only does Brad Smith line up under center, but they also run a Pistol type set where they can run a true option. Some of these Bengal defenders probably haven’t seen that since college. With a week to prepare for what they just saw, I can’t see Mike Zimmer’s defense not being ready to stop those plays. If the Jets rely on Brad Smith to continually convert third downs like they did last week, they will be in trouble.
The Jets offensive line is terrific and FB Tony Richardson and the TE’s can all block. The Oline, especially the interior guys Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Alan Faneca are very quick off the snap and are dangerous in open space. Last week showed us way too many situations where these guys were one on one with LB’s. With Rey Maualuga out, the Bengals lack a physical presence to match these guys. The key will be for the interior DLine guys to at least get a hand on the interior OLine guys before they get to the second level.
The Bengals defense also did not blitz in the first matchup. They played straight up, without their best players, and got knocked around. Expect a much more aggressive front with more safety pressures now that Chris Crocker is back. The Bengals played the multiple receiver sets of the Jets with mostly base 4-3, sliding the safety down as the nickel corner. I expect to see the same type of look this week, but with Crocker at the nickel instead of Tom Nelson. That leaves Chinny Ndukwe as the single high safety, protecting the deep ball. This alignment allows the Bengals the flexibility to bring that nickel back on a blitz or drop to 2 deep. Crocker is also a superior run defender, so the Jets will NOT be raking up 250 rushing yards this week with he amd Peko and Geathers back.
The key will be winning on first down and putting the Jets in obvious pass situations. Mark Sanchez has pretty ugly numbers this season, especially on the road. He is best in play action and short yardage situations, where the threat of his run game gives him one on one matchups to throw to. He has the makings of a good quarterback, but he’s a long way away right now. When the Jets have had to have him carry the load, he’s generally imploded, giving the ball away far too many times. The Bengals will continue to play aggressive man to man coverage on the outsides and dare this guy to beat them. The Jets used some delayed snap counts against the Bengals last week, especially in the shotgun. A young, inexperienced quarterback will find the snap count more difficult in a hostile environment.
Sanchez isn’t the only Jet with turnover issues. Shonn Greene has had fumble problems all season, and was bailed out by an off-sides penalty last week or he’d have had another one. I fully expect at least two turnovers out of the Jets in this game, and that margin may be the key.
This is not to say that the Jets don’t have weapons. Braylon Edwards is still a big play threat, even with his issue with drops. Leon Hall has had problems with big receivers all year, and was tested deep last week. Jericho Cotchery is a very solid receiver, though he is dealing with a hamstring issue. He too is capable of hooking up with Sanchez on a deep strike. Big plays must be avoided. The Bengals must make the Jets be methodical. This game has the makings of a heavy weight fight, and those types of fights usually start with a lot of body blows to setup the knockout. The Bengals can’t let this team land a big shot early.
I fully expect the Jets to come in overconfident from last week, thinking they can just line up and run it down the Bengals throats like last week. Trust me, it won’t be so easy. If the Jets are smart, they will go counter to this and immediately come out with some controlled passes to take advantage of the 8 man fronts they are sure to see. If the Bengals can tackle better than last week, the additions in personnel and aggressiveness should limit the Jets offense.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Wait, I think another Bengal receiver just dropped another pass. Good god, how bad were these guys? I know Darelle Revis is the best corner in football, but even he was beaten on a couple routes early where drops killed any momentum. At least everyone got in on the fun, and hopefully got it out of their system because Carson Palmer has always preferred to attack Rex Ryan’s 46 defense with the pass. He’s been one of the few quarterbacks to consistently beat the Ravens, and judging by how open guys were getting; it seems like the right approach. There is no way in the world this group has that bad a game collectively two weeks in a row.
Not only did the Bengals rest key guys on defense, they also rested Ced Benson and JP Foschi, their best back and best TE (a relative term). I’m not going to say the offense didn’t try, but they didn’t really audible and stuck to what was called. You can tell this when the run against an obvious 9 man front. Not going to get much against that.
Again, this is no slight to a very good Jet D. They are the strength of this team and again demonstrate the personality of their coach. Aggressive, demonstrative and generally in your face. This may be the only team in the league that has the stones to cover Chad 8-5 one on one. They line up in more exotic formations than any other defense and constantly move around prior to the snap. One thing is almost always certain, the Jets are bringing blitzers from somewhere. They put a lot of guys at the line of scrimmage, even in base defense, and have perimeter defenders who are quick to disrupt plays and get into the backfield. This is a formidable group, but they have weaknesses.
For one, their all-world DT Kris Jenkins is out for the year. The Jets are still good against the run, but not as good without him. Their run defense, and pass rush for that matter, is more about overloads and mismatches now. The will overshift in alignment and try to make you check to where they want you to go. This allows their quicker guys to shoot gaps and pursue, things that most defensive fronts don’t do. One example was a first down run that was immediately blown up by OLB Calvin Pace, who flashed in front of RT Dennis Roland and dropped Bernard Scott for a loss. I think the speed of Pace and the inside move caught Roland off guard. Playing these guys a second time in succession should be helpful on plays like that.
The pass defense hinges on Revis. The assumption is that he has half the field locked down and the rest of the defense has the other side. For the most part they are right, but as well as he played against Chad, he was awfully handsy downfield. He got called for one hold and should’ve been flagged for a PI on a deep fade down the sideline. I’d expect, in Cincy, that he’ll get more calls on him than in New Jersey.
The Bengals continue to get stupid penalties on offense, and at this point in the season, I think it’s a given. Can they overcome them and at least avoid them in critical spots? This team could’ve picked up several third downs if not for drops, including a 3rd and 13, but you can’t make a habit of it against this defense. Stay in manageable situations and win the field position battle. There will be chances out there, but the secondary receivers must play better. Andre Caldwell and Vern Coles again must play better. JP Foschi’s return should help as well. This team is in dire need of upgrades at both positions in the offseason.
While I certainly don’t expect an offensive explosion, I do expect a decent performance from the Bengals offense. Carson has seen this defense plenty, and given time, will find holes. He was absolutely on the money last weekend in bad conditions, so I have no worries about how he is playing right now. I know he wants to win, the rest of the guys need to do their parts.
Teams-
The Jets may have a slight edge in teams, but not enough to make a significant difference. The Bengals haven’t had very good returns in some weeks, so maybe they are due. Field position is important in even games.
Prediction-
A much better all-around effort by the Bengals, who understand that everything they’ve done is moot without playoff success. Marvin Lewis and Co. have waited since 2005 to get redemption and I think it’s coming (at least for one week). The Jets spent a lot of energy just to get here and partied like they won the Super Bowl after last week’s win. An already overconfident Rex Ryan is due for a wake-up call when his turnover prone quarterback plays in cold conditions, in a hostile environment, against a stronger Bengal opponent. The Jets are who we think they are: a team with one quality road win, week 1, against the Texans. Welcome to the Jungle boys. Turnovers will tell the story in this one and the Bengals win by a field goal in a game that should be in the low 40’s.
One more week of fun after this one.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 17
No write up for the Jets week 17 either. I know these files are somewhere, but I'm done searching.
The Jets beat the Bengals down 37-0. Beat down. To his credit, Carson Palmer was pinpoint accurate in a freezing cold environment, and got absolutely no help from his receivers. I think there were at least 5 drops in the first quarter.
The Bengals caught a lot of heat for basically laying down and letting the Jets into the Playoffs. That would end up being a big mistake.
The Jets beat the Bengals down 37-0. Beat down. To his credit, Carson Palmer was pinpoint accurate in a freezing cold environment, and got absolutely no help from his receivers. I think there were at least 5 drops in the first quarter.
The Bengals caught a lot of heat for basically laying down and letting the Jets into the Playoffs. That would end up being a big mistake.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 16
I can't find the Chiefs write up either. Jeez, my file management leaves a bit to be desired. The Bengals win another ugly game against a bad team on the strength of the running game. Ceddy Ced's 133 lead the way.
The Bengals would be 10-5 going to play the Jets in New York.
The Bengals would be 10-5 going to play the Jets in New York.
Bengals 2009 Season in Review-Week 15
(After the loss to the Vikings, and the death of Chris Henry, the heavy hearted Bengals played a heck of a game in a close loss to the Chargers. In the end, it was too much Vincent Jackson against Leon Hall, and a blown coverage at the end of the game set up a game winning field goal for SD).
Bengals v Chargers
I almost didn’t write this week’s primer because in the wake of the death of Chris Henry, football doesn’t seem as important as it did a week ago. I’m forging ahead though, because the Bengals are going to have to as they make the trek to San Diego. On top of everything else they have to deal with, San Diego is the toughest matchup they have faced so far this season. Who knows how the emotion of Slim’s death will affect them. There will undoubtedly be frustrations taken out on the Chargers, but can emotion overcome enough of the deficiencies of this team to get a win? The #2 seed is on the line this week as what amounts to two of the best three teams in the AFC square off. The Bengals are facing a second straight road game, while the Chargers are home after two straight on the road.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Jamall Williams, the all-world Nose Tackle, has been lost to the season since early in the 2009 campaign. After a few weeks of rotation, the Chargers have settled on former Bear Ian Scott to man the focal point of any 3-4 defense. RDE Luis Castillo is the best interior lineman on the team outside of Williams, and leads a solid if unspectacular interior unit. The Chargers rotate several other guys into the three interior positions, but certainly don’t have the star power of the Pittsburgh or Baltimore fronts we’re used to seeing.
The linebackers on this team are very good. Everyone talks about OLB Shaun Merriman, but the real difference maker in this unit is OLB Shaun Phillips. He leads the team in sacks, and is very active in the run game. Phillips has an ankle injury, but it does not appear serious. Merriman gets the pub, but outside two games mid-season, he’s been held without a sack. He is also dealing with a foot issue that has nagged him for two months. He and Chad 8-5 have had a war of words going on the past few months, so perhaps he’ll be good for a personal foul a la Ray Lewis. Rookie Larry English spells Merriman at his outside rush position and appears to be the heir once Lights Out departs via free agency after the season.
The middle backers are very solid with Stephen Cooper, Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler all getting significant action. I’m a big fan of Cooper, he’s very underrated but is probably better at this point than James Farrior as an interior 3-4 backer. This linebacking corps rushes a ton, and brings all kinds of zone blitzing schemes to the party. The key to any 3-4 is getting the mismatch of a linebacker one on one with a back or tight end. Watch for overloads at the snap and look for delays, especially attacking the middle of the line. The right side of the Bengals line and the left guard position have not pass blocked well of late and coordinator Ron Rivera will look to exploit that.
I’m not in love with the Charger secondary, but this is a unit that has talent and a lot of size. CB Antonio Cromartie is 6’2” and CB Quintin Jammer is a legit 6’0” and both guys are 200# plus. Cromartie is more athletic, with rougher ball skills and Jammer is the more complete corner who will look for the hit. Antoine Cason is a very capable nickel corner with good size as well. The safeties are solid, led by Eric Weddle who may be limited with a knee injury. Steve Gregory and rookie Kevin Ellison man the other safety spot. The Chargers are very high on Ellison out of USC, and he’s a load in run support at 220#.
The weakness of this defense is their ability to stuff the run. OK, the stats are going to show that they are giving up well south of 100 a game, but stats can be deceiving. Most opponents either have to pass to keep up with the Chargers offense, or they short circuit their own run game a la Dallas last week. The Chargers can be run on if you are committed and the game is close. The Bengals have the run attack and the defense to accomplish both.
The Bengals offense cannot commit the drive killing penalties they have been the last few weeks. You’re done before you even start. If they play a clean game, they can push this defensive line around. This line will be fired up emotionally, no doubt about it, but can they played with controlled aggression? The did against Baltimore.
Getting points will be the key, and this is where I see the Bengals falling short. The Vikings sat back in deep cover 2 and had their corners maul the Bengal receivers at the line. They dared the Bengals to run and put together long, methodical drives. Heck, so did Oakland, so did Cleveland, so did just about everyone outside of Green Bay and Chicago. I fully expect the Chargers to do the same with their big, physical corners. Chad will draw 2,3, and even 4 guys at times, so the other receivers have to show up. “Paging Vern Coles”. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this stuff each week.
At least we may finally see Jerome Simpson, who should run 10-12 go routes even if they only throw it once. Just the threat of his size and speed will open things up for the other guys underneath. I’d expect to see some bunch formations as well, with one receiver behind the other so they can’t get jammed. I actually expect Caldwell to have a decent game, but he needs a touchdown catch to make this close.
Also helping the offense should be the return of Bernard Scott. He and Brian Leonard are formidable in the short passing game. Watching Carson last week, there was nothing open downfield, so he will have to check down and guys will have to make plays. Look at how effective the Vikings backs were last week. The Bengals have guys who can make plays too. One guy who can’t is Dan Coats. Please stop throwing him the ball. Even if you have to go more 3-4 wides, stop asking these tight ends to make plays.
If the Bengals can keep this a low scoring, ugly game, they can control the tempo. Field position will be critical, and avoiding turnovers will be too, as they were against Minnesota. That game was close until the fumble and field goal to end the half and the first scoring drive in the third quarter changed the whole dynamic. The Bengals have not done well offensively coming out of half time, and they can’t afford to be down multiple scores against the Charger offense.
When the Chargers have the ball:
This isn’t LT’s Chargers anymore; this team belongs to Phillip Rivers. I believe he is the second best quarterback in the Conference right now behind only Payton Manning. The Chargers have the premier vertical passing game in the league and Rivers is playing at an elite level. He has a solid line in front of him and weapons at every position around him. This offense will be very difficult to stop.
The run game still features LT, but his touches are limited. He is no longer featured as an every down back, but is still effective in short yardage and goal line situations. Though he only has 600 yards rushing, he has 10 touchdowns. Darren Sproles will get carries, but is primarily a weapon in the pass game. He is hard to see and hard to stop and is deadly in the screen game if given space and blocking. Every great pass team needs a safety valve who can take a four yard pass and get 8. He can get 80 with his punt return open field skills.
The receiving corps, and I include the tight end on this team, is big and fast and skilled. Vincent Jackson is a premier big receiver who routinely beats double teams with his speed and leaping ability. Antonio Gates leads the team in catches and yards from the tight end position, and is still the premier pass catching TE in the league (no offense to Dallas Clark who’s 1B). Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee round out an absolutely huge group of targets for Mr. Rivers. These guys are threats vertically and threats in the redzone, where they put a ton of pressure on smaller defenders. James Lofton early, and now Charlie Joyner deserve a ton of credit for the success of this well schooled unit.
The Bengals secondary, as good as it has been, has had difficulty defending bigger receivers. Guys like Greg Jennings, and Derrick Mason have had limited success, but Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Mohammed Massoquoi have put up big games. They’ve also been hurt over the middle by slot guys, tight ends, and backs. Ummm, the Chargers bring all of this in spades. I smell trouble.
The key to stopping, or at least slowing down, the Chargers will be pressure. The Bengals must rattle Rivers, and that is not easy to do. He is a pocket passer, so pushing around the pocket is a must. The Chargers line is solid against the rush, and is starting to get John Runyan acclimated at the RT position. Marcus McNeil is a good LT, and the interior of Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick and Luis Vasquez are all solid. The Bengal front will have to come out fired up. If the Bengals are forced to blitz, it will open up the screens and draws for Sproles. Tackling and screen recognition will be huge.
I’m sure the defense will come out firing and be flying to the football, but they must also play with discipline. The linebackers did a very poor job against Minnesota of taking angles and tackling, and will have to be better. The safeties, especially Tom Nelson with the loss of Chris Crocker, will have to do a good job of minimizing the damage that Gates can cause in the middle of the field. This is very tough with the threat of the deep ball at any time to Floyd and Jackson.
Much will be expected from JJoe and Leon Hall once again. If they play lights out, the Bengals have a shot. If they can manage to take what running game the Chargers bring out of the game and keep them in longer down and distance, they have a shot. If they can control field position, they have a shot. But if grandma had balls, she’d be grandpa. That’s a lot of if’s.
Teams:
Field position is critical. Kevin Huber had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? Field position is critical. Shayne Graham had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? The Bengals need a spark in the return game. I don’t know whether B. Scott will get back to kick returns immediately or if Cosby will continue to do both, but this teams needs at least one big return in this game.
The Chargers have probably the best punter, best kicker, and one of the best returners in the league. Fantastic for them. Seriously though, watch Mike Scifres punt, the guy is amazing.
Prediction:
As much as I’d love to say they will rally behind the loss of Chris Henry the way they did against Baltimore after Mike Zimmer’s wife died, I don’t see it. The Bengals are better than the Ravens, period. The Bengals are not better than the Chargers. Not at home, on a neutral field, and certainly not in their place. Does that mean they can’t win, no it doesn’t. The Bengals are a good football team, whose style should keep them competitive in most games. They just make too many mistakes and are not sharp enough where it matters most. Above all, they don’t score enough to beat the really good teams.
The Chargers have failed to score more than 23 only twice all year, and the Bengals have scored more than 23 only twice this year. That’s not good. The Bengals should hold it close early, but run out of steam after a quick SD score in the third quarter pushes it to a two score lead. Unless Jerome Simpson and/or Bernard Scott can make a quick score happen, it’ll be over. I’ll take the under and the Chargers by more than 6.5.
The Bengals still look good as the 3 seed, hoping to host the crappy Ravens a second time. I want no part of the Dolphins, so send them a voodoo hex please.
Bengals v Chargers
I almost didn’t write this week’s primer because in the wake of the death of Chris Henry, football doesn’t seem as important as it did a week ago. I’m forging ahead though, because the Bengals are going to have to as they make the trek to San Diego. On top of everything else they have to deal with, San Diego is the toughest matchup they have faced so far this season. Who knows how the emotion of Slim’s death will affect them. There will undoubtedly be frustrations taken out on the Chargers, but can emotion overcome enough of the deficiencies of this team to get a win? The #2 seed is on the line this week as what amounts to two of the best three teams in the AFC square off. The Bengals are facing a second straight road game, while the Chargers are home after two straight on the road.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Jamall Williams, the all-world Nose Tackle, has been lost to the season since early in the 2009 campaign. After a few weeks of rotation, the Chargers have settled on former Bear Ian Scott to man the focal point of any 3-4 defense. RDE Luis Castillo is the best interior lineman on the team outside of Williams, and leads a solid if unspectacular interior unit. The Chargers rotate several other guys into the three interior positions, but certainly don’t have the star power of the Pittsburgh or Baltimore fronts we’re used to seeing.
The linebackers on this team are very good. Everyone talks about OLB Shaun Merriman, but the real difference maker in this unit is OLB Shaun Phillips. He leads the team in sacks, and is very active in the run game. Phillips has an ankle injury, but it does not appear serious. Merriman gets the pub, but outside two games mid-season, he’s been held without a sack. He is also dealing with a foot issue that has nagged him for two months. He and Chad 8-5 have had a war of words going on the past few months, so perhaps he’ll be good for a personal foul a la Ray Lewis. Rookie Larry English spells Merriman at his outside rush position and appears to be the heir once Lights Out departs via free agency after the season.
The middle backers are very solid with Stephen Cooper, Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler all getting significant action. I’m a big fan of Cooper, he’s very underrated but is probably better at this point than James Farrior as an interior 3-4 backer. This linebacking corps rushes a ton, and brings all kinds of zone blitzing schemes to the party. The key to any 3-4 is getting the mismatch of a linebacker one on one with a back or tight end. Watch for overloads at the snap and look for delays, especially attacking the middle of the line. The right side of the Bengals line and the left guard position have not pass blocked well of late and coordinator Ron Rivera will look to exploit that.
I’m not in love with the Charger secondary, but this is a unit that has talent and a lot of size. CB Antonio Cromartie is 6’2” and CB Quintin Jammer is a legit 6’0” and both guys are 200# plus. Cromartie is more athletic, with rougher ball skills and Jammer is the more complete corner who will look for the hit. Antoine Cason is a very capable nickel corner with good size as well. The safeties are solid, led by Eric Weddle who may be limited with a knee injury. Steve Gregory and rookie Kevin Ellison man the other safety spot. The Chargers are very high on Ellison out of USC, and he’s a load in run support at 220#.
The weakness of this defense is their ability to stuff the run. OK, the stats are going to show that they are giving up well south of 100 a game, but stats can be deceiving. Most opponents either have to pass to keep up with the Chargers offense, or they short circuit their own run game a la Dallas last week. The Chargers can be run on if you are committed and the game is close. The Bengals have the run attack and the defense to accomplish both.
The Bengals offense cannot commit the drive killing penalties they have been the last few weeks. You’re done before you even start. If they play a clean game, they can push this defensive line around. This line will be fired up emotionally, no doubt about it, but can they played with controlled aggression? The did against Baltimore.
Getting points will be the key, and this is where I see the Bengals falling short. The Vikings sat back in deep cover 2 and had their corners maul the Bengal receivers at the line. They dared the Bengals to run and put together long, methodical drives. Heck, so did Oakland, so did Cleveland, so did just about everyone outside of Green Bay and Chicago. I fully expect the Chargers to do the same with their big, physical corners. Chad will draw 2,3, and even 4 guys at times, so the other receivers have to show up. “Paging Vern Coles”. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this stuff each week.
At least we may finally see Jerome Simpson, who should run 10-12 go routes even if they only throw it once. Just the threat of his size and speed will open things up for the other guys underneath. I’d expect to see some bunch formations as well, with one receiver behind the other so they can’t get jammed. I actually expect Caldwell to have a decent game, but he needs a touchdown catch to make this close.
Also helping the offense should be the return of Bernard Scott. He and Brian Leonard are formidable in the short passing game. Watching Carson last week, there was nothing open downfield, so he will have to check down and guys will have to make plays. Look at how effective the Vikings backs were last week. The Bengals have guys who can make plays too. One guy who can’t is Dan Coats. Please stop throwing him the ball. Even if you have to go more 3-4 wides, stop asking these tight ends to make plays.
If the Bengals can keep this a low scoring, ugly game, they can control the tempo. Field position will be critical, and avoiding turnovers will be too, as they were against Minnesota. That game was close until the fumble and field goal to end the half and the first scoring drive in the third quarter changed the whole dynamic. The Bengals have not done well offensively coming out of half time, and they can’t afford to be down multiple scores against the Charger offense.
When the Chargers have the ball:
This isn’t LT’s Chargers anymore; this team belongs to Phillip Rivers. I believe he is the second best quarterback in the Conference right now behind only Payton Manning. The Chargers have the premier vertical passing game in the league and Rivers is playing at an elite level. He has a solid line in front of him and weapons at every position around him. This offense will be very difficult to stop.
The run game still features LT, but his touches are limited. He is no longer featured as an every down back, but is still effective in short yardage and goal line situations. Though he only has 600 yards rushing, he has 10 touchdowns. Darren Sproles will get carries, but is primarily a weapon in the pass game. He is hard to see and hard to stop and is deadly in the screen game if given space and blocking. Every great pass team needs a safety valve who can take a four yard pass and get 8. He can get 80 with his punt return open field skills.
The receiving corps, and I include the tight end on this team, is big and fast and skilled. Vincent Jackson is a premier big receiver who routinely beats double teams with his speed and leaping ability. Antonio Gates leads the team in catches and yards from the tight end position, and is still the premier pass catching TE in the league (no offense to Dallas Clark who’s 1B). Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee round out an absolutely huge group of targets for Mr. Rivers. These guys are threats vertically and threats in the redzone, where they put a ton of pressure on smaller defenders. James Lofton early, and now Charlie Joyner deserve a ton of credit for the success of this well schooled unit.
The Bengals secondary, as good as it has been, has had difficulty defending bigger receivers. Guys like Greg Jennings, and Derrick Mason have had limited success, but Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Mohammed Massoquoi have put up big games. They’ve also been hurt over the middle by slot guys, tight ends, and backs. Ummm, the Chargers bring all of this in spades. I smell trouble.
The key to stopping, or at least slowing down, the Chargers will be pressure. The Bengals must rattle Rivers, and that is not easy to do. He is a pocket passer, so pushing around the pocket is a must. The Chargers line is solid against the rush, and is starting to get John Runyan acclimated at the RT position. Marcus McNeil is a good LT, and the interior of Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick and Luis Vasquez are all solid. The Bengal front will have to come out fired up. If the Bengals are forced to blitz, it will open up the screens and draws for Sproles. Tackling and screen recognition will be huge.
I’m sure the defense will come out firing and be flying to the football, but they must also play with discipline. The linebackers did a very poor job against Minnesota of taking angles and tackling, and will have to be better. The safeties, especially Tom Nelson with the loss of Chris Crocker, will have to do a good job of minimizing the damage that Gates can cause in the middle of the field. This is very tough with the threat of the deep ball at any time to Floyd and Jackson.
Much will be expected from JJoe and Leon Hall once again. If they play lights out, the Bengals have a shot. If they can manage to take what running game the Chargers bring out of the game and keep them in longer down and distance, they have a shot. If they can control field position, they have a shot. But if grandma had balls, she’d be grandpa. That’s a lot of if’s.
Teams:
Field position is critical. Kevin Huber had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? Field position is critical. Shayne Graham had a horrid game against Minnesota, can he bounce back? The Bengals need a spark in the return game. I don’t know whether B. Scott will get back to kick returns immediately or if Cosby will continue to do both, but this teams needs at least one big return in this game.
The Chargers have probably the best punter, best kicker, and one of the best returners in the league. Fantastic for them. Seriously though, watch Mike Scifres punt, the guy is amazing.
Prediction:
As much as I’d love to say they will rally behind the loss of Chris Henry the way they did against Baltimore after Mike Zimmer’s wife died, I don’t see it. The Bengals are better than the Ravens, period. The Bengals are not better than the Chargers. Not at home, on a neutral field, and certainly not in their place. Does that mean they can’t win, no it doesn’t. The Bengals are a good football team, whose style should keep them competitive in most games. They just make too many mistakes and are not sharp enough where it matters most. Above all, they don’t score enough to beat the really good teams.
The Chargers have failed to score more than 23 only twice all year, and the Bengals have scored more than 23 only twice this year. That’s not good. The Bengals should hold it close early, but run out of steam after a quick SD score in the third quarter pushes it to a two score lead. Unless Jerome Simpson and/or Bernard Scott can make a quick score happen, it’ll be over. I’ll take the under and the Chargers by more than 6.5.
The Bengals still look good as the 3 seed, hoping to host the crappy Ravens a second time. I want no part of the Dolphins, so send them a voodoo hex please.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 14
(The Bengals would get absolutely housed by Brett Favre and the Vikes in week 14. While the outside coverage was pretty good, the middle of the defense (esp. Dhani Jones) would get repeatedly beaten by passes to running backs. Percy Harvin didn't play, so it could've been even worse. Though the Bengals weren't as bad as they played this week, it definitely exposed them as a product of their schedule).
Bengals v. Vikings
So we finally get to the meat of the schedule, the first chance to see how this 9-3 Bengals team stacks up against a legitimate playoff team. In analyzing this matchup, I see some interesting parallels between this Bengals team and the Vikings. The first and maybe most important, is that like the Bengals, the Vikings have only beaten one team with a winning record on their way to 10-2: the Green Bay Packers. The Vikes, widely regarded as the third best team in football right now, have padded their record against pretty bad teams much like the Bengals have. Their two losses came at Pittsburgh (when, you know, Pittsburgh still looked a little like Pittsburgh) and at Arizona, and they’ve escaped two close games against San Francisco and Baltimore at home. How good is this Vikings team, really? How good are the Bengals? This game might now definitively tell us, but it should give some indications heading into January.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Holy cow, this Vikings defense is beat up. Antoine Winfield has been out for several weeks with a foot injury and is clearly the second best player on this defense behind Jared Allen. He appears to be ready to return this Sunday, but how effective can he be? The secondary is further depleted with injuries to both the other starting Corner Cedric Griffin (neck) and starting Strong Safety Tyrell Johnson (concussion), neither likely to play. Backup corner Karl Paymah, who’s pretty terrible even when healthy, is also not likely to play with a knee injury. That leaves our old friend Madieu Williams alone as the only healthy regular, playing next to a rookie in the deep backfield. Winfield’s effectiveness in coverage and run support is key to the success of this defense.
EJ Henderson, the starting middle Linebacker and as good a run stopping backer as there is in the league, is done for the year and possibly his career with a broken femur. That means rookie and special teamer Jasper Brinkley will be the man in the middle of our old friend Leslie Frazier’s defense on first and second downs. The two linebackers who will stay on the field all three downs are Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. Greenway is one of my personal favorites, and a guy that flat makes plays. He’s not much of a pass rusher, but he’s a factor in both the run and pass game and is the most versatile defender in the defensive front.
The front four of the Vikings is one of the premier units in the game, although DT Pat Williams may be limited with a foot injury. He and DT Kevin Williams form the “Williams Wall” with the help of DE Ray Edwards and of course DE Jared Allen, a front that has not surrendered over 100 yards rushing in 35 straight games. Jared Allen is the difference maker on this defense, a high motor guy with 12.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. He was shut down in the Arizona game last week, and has already come out and said he feels sorry for the Bengals this week.
While this is a very good defense, I’m not sure they are elite, especially in light of all the injuries. What they do well is stop the run. The pass rush and coverage have been surprisingly inconsistent. Allen for instance has 9.5 of his 12.5 sacks in three games, including 7.5 in two games against Green Bay. As we saw with Antwan Odom’s huge game against the Pack, getting huge sack numbers against them is common. He also had 2 more against the Bears two weeks ago, and they may have the worst offensive line in football. The moral is you have to take this guy out of the game with chips, cuts, double teams, and running right at him. The Arizona Cardinals did this to perfection last week, and the other guys did not step up.
I think the key to this game will be the play of the Bengals offensive line, backs and tight ends. Not only do they have to slide to Allen, the interior guys must not let the DTackles push the pocket. The way to negate a speed rush is to push it upfield and allow the quarterback to step up. If the DTackles push the pocket, there’s nowhere to go. Carson Palmer has done a lot of short roll outs to the right this year, and that could spell disaster with #69 bringing pursuit from the backside. Allen will look to do the Lawrence Taylor swipe anytime he’s close, and has caused game changing fumbles often. Palmer lost one last week to blindside corner blitz, so he must be more aware of danger.
The Bengals are going to try to run, that’s no secret. I think they will use plenty of unbalanced three tackle alignments to try to wear down both Allen and Edwards. How effective it will be is a big question. Without EJ Henderson, there’s no way this team is going to be as good against the run, but they’re still good. The Bengals have put up good run totals in just about every game this year, but this one may look more like the last Pittsburgh game where 80 yards may be it. Either way, it’s really about wearing down the DLine and setting up play action, so barring them being down multiple scores, they will stay balanced. The Vikes were called out by their coaches for the lack of physical play last week, so this should be a heavy weight title fight with plenty of body blows.
The Bengals offense comes into the game relative healthy, with only Bernard Scott missing with turf toe. That means plenty of power runs with Ced Benson, Larry Johnson and short passes to Brian Leonard. Carson Palmer has been campaigning for more pass attempts this week, and this game looks like the perfect time for them. Barring a complete meltdown in pass protection, a 300 yard game against this secondary is very plausible. Two things that worry me about the state of the Bengals passing game are the continued lack of a dependable second guy, let alone a third, and the leaky pass protection against straight pressures. Teams have been dropping 7-8 guys in coverage, and have still managed pressure, especially over the right side of Dennis Roland and Bobbie Williams. If the line can give Palmer time, I’d fully expect another big day for Chad MuchoMoutho.
The pre-snap penalties have also crept back over the last few games, as well as some drive killing holding calls. The Metrodome will be incredibly loud, so the Bengals will have to be very focused on not stopping their own drives. These problems have caused the Bengals to struggle all season to score points. They’ve scored over 30 only twice, with the last being the 45 point onslaught against the putrid Bears almost two months ago. The Vikings on the other hand, have scored less than 27 twice (both coming in their losses). What’s the old saying? The team that scores the most points generally wins.
The Bengals finally got a big play out of the passing game last week with Chad’s big catch, and this secondary will give up big plays if they play aggressively. I expect them to stay back and give up underneath passes rather than anything deep. That puts the brunt of the run stopping load on the front seven, so if the Bengals can move the defensive front, the pass game won’t have to carry the offense. Remember that the worst loss this season came when the offense had to score to keep up with the Texans offense. I don’t know that this Bengals offense can win in a shootout. The grind it out style works great when you’re holding teams under 20, so we’ll find out how good the Bengals D really is if they want to win.
When the Packers have the ball:
If the Vikes D weren’t so banged up, the first thing we’d be talking about are the injuries on the offense. On the OLine alone, only the Center does not appear on the injury report. Both Right Tackle Phil Loadholt (who’s done a great job as a rookie) and Right Guard Anthony Herrera appear unlikely to play with a shoulder and a concussion respectively, so injuries could whittle away at the effectiveness of a very good unit. The left side is very good with perennial pro-bowler Steve Hutchison and Bryant McKinnie, and they will certainly go that way more if the right side is undermanned. Much has been made this week of McKinnie “tipping off” plays by his body position, so keep an eye on him pre-snap and see if you can tell what’s coming. Hopefully RE’s Jon Fanene and Michael Johnson can take advantage too.
Even the great Adrian Peterson can’t escape the injury report, coming into the game with an ankle injury. He will go, but some of his incredible cutting and acceleration may be limited. He is the most dynamic back in the league, and even at 80% can make big plays and scores happen at any time. The only other skill guys nicked up are WR Bernard Berrian and TE Vishante Shiancoe. WR Percy Harvin has missed practice time due to migraines, but it’s a problem he’s dealt with his whole life so I don’t expect him to be limited during the game.
The run game is obviously formidable with Peterson and back-up Chester Taylor bringing both power and speed, and the ability to score from anywhere on any play. Tackling is of paramount importance against this team. With as much big-play, quick score ability as this team has, you can’t give them extra yards or allow short plays to break for big yards. The Vikes got away from the run-first philosophy last week and it blew up in their faces, so expect Peterson early and often in this one. Peterson is the first and second choice in the redzone and short yardage, and has a nose for the goal line. The Bengals have bent but not broken all season, and have been good in the redzone. This will be a huge test. Forcing field goals could win the game.
Brett Favre is certainly enjoying one of his best seasons as a pro. 26 touchdowns to only 5 picks shows that he has not forced the ball into spots that he might have early in his career. He has developed a very good rapport with his receivers, especially Rice, Harvin and Shiancoe. The Bengals corners are probably the best Favre will see all year however, so I would expect him to target the defenders in the middle of the field before going after the edges. As we’ve seen from the Oakland game, if the nickel corner or the safeties can be isolated in man coverage it can get ugly. I fully expect Percy Harvin and Shiancoe to do plenty of damage if the pass rush can’t make Favre throw early or inaccurately. Shiancoe is Favre’s favorite redzone target, so linebacker and safety coverage will be key. Favre is a master at pumps and look-offs, so it’s important for the coverage guys to play their man and not spy the quarterback. The one silver lining is that in the two loses, Favre gave the ball away. Peterson will give the ball up as well, so turnover margain is crucial in beating this team.
On the injury front, Domata Peko is out for this game and at least a couple more. Chris Crocker didn’t look good last week after hurting his leg, which could mean Tom Nelson playing safety. Morgan Trent apparently hurt his knee, so David Jones will play nickel. Peko hurts because he’s the best overall DLineman and a guy that’s on the field all three downs. They will need him more for the playoffs, so Tank Johnson and Pat Simms will have to carry the freight for a few weeks. Although it might hurt the run defense, they can also slide Fanene and Frostee Rucker to tackle if need be. I don’t want to see a whole lot of Orien Harris or Shaun Smith.
The secondary is starting to get really thin, although they’ve only had one key member hurt in Crocker to this point. Hall and Joseph are the keys to this outside-in defensive philosophy, but Crocker has been very big as the rangy centerfielder since moving back from nickel earlier this season. The middle will be tested by this very talented skill position group, a group that’s better than any they’ve seen to this point. There will be chances at turnovers, so hopefully we won’t see any easy drops like the Oakland game.
The front seven is going to have control the Vikings run game to have a shot at winning. Dhani Jones is quietly having a hell of a good season and is really the backbone of this defense. Getting Keith Rivers back healthy is huge, and getting more and more contributions from Who Dey Rey is very encouraging. This is a stiff test for this defense that is allowing the fewest points in the NFL. Is this defense really that good, or is this a product of what has been a weak schedule to this point?
Special Teams-
Percy Harvin is an electric return guy on kickoffs. He’s averaging almost 30 per return and has 2 scores. Shayne Graham was god awful on kicks last week and spotting Harvin 10 yards puts the coverage team in a bad spot. The punt returning for the Vikes isn’t nearly as good. Ryan Longwell is a very good kicker with only one miss all year and two made from over 50.
The Bengals will probably continue to rely on Quan Cosby in both the kick and punt return games. He’s been very solid on teams this year, but could use a little more help from his blockers to set up a big return. Coverage teams will have to be more consistent, which may be difficult without ace Kyries Hebert if he can’t go with a knee injury. Shayne Graham is very marginal at this point, and will not be with this team next year.
Prediction-
The Bengals are catching the Vikings at a pretty good time, as they are really banged up physically. They’re coming off a bad loss that either exposed them as a fraud with major flaws, or simply a team having a bad week that will look to bounce back in a big way at home. I think the truth may be somewhere in between. This Vikings team was home for almost six weeks, including the bye, before going to Arizona to play an improving Cardinals team. They got away from what they do best, running behind AP, and turned the ball over trying to play catch up. I do not think either one of these teams are a Super Bowl team, but the Vikes are still probably better than the Bengals in their building.
For the Bengals to win, they must stop the run and they must give Carson Palmer time to attack this very suspect secondary. The Cardinals did this to perfection, but the Bengals may not have the personnel to do the same in the Metrodome. The Bengals must, on both sides of the ball, take the fight right to the Vikings and test their physical will. They must play a much cleaner game that they’ve done against lesser teams the last few weeks. The margin for error may be too small.
They have a great shot at winning, much better than being a 7 point underdog would seem to state, but I don’t think they will score enough in the end. They should hold their own, but big plays will get them. Whether it’s a return, missed tackles on an AP run, or a big pass to Harvin, I think the Bengals will give up a couple of easy scores that are too much to dink and dunk and overcome. They must get an easy one or two of their own, and they must win the turnover battle. It can be done.
Overall, I see a close loss with the combined score higher than the 43 over/under as these are two defenses with slightly undeserved reputations.
Bengals v. Vikings
So we finally get to the meat of the schedule, the first chance to see how this 9-3 Bengals team stacks up against a legitimate playoff team. In analyzing this matchup, I see some interesting parallels between this Bengals team and the Vikings. The first and maybe most important, is that like the Bengals, the Vikings have only beaten one team with a winning record on their way to 10-2: the Green Bay Packers. The Vikes, widely regarded as the third best team in football right now, have padded their record against pretty bad teams much like the Bengals have. Their two losses came at Pittsburgh (when, you know, Pittsburgh still looked a little like Pittsburgh) and at Arizona, and they’ve escaped two close games against San Francisco and Baltimore at home. How good is this Vikings team, really? How good are the Bengals? This game might now definitively tell us, but it should give some indications heading into January.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Holy cow, this Vikings defense is beat up. Antoine Winfield has been out for several weeks with a foot injury and is clearly the second best player on this defense behind Jared Allen. He appears to be ready to return this Sunday, but how effective can he be? The secondary is further depleted with injuries to both the other starting Corner Cedric Griffin (neck) and starting Strong Safety Tyrell Johnson (concussion), neither likely to play. Backup corner Karl Paymah, who’s pretty terrible even when healthy, is also not likely to play with a knee injury. That leaves our old friend Madieu Williams alone as the only healthy regular, playing next to a rookie in the deep backfield. Winfield’s effectiveness in coverage and run support is key to the success of this defense.
EJ Henderson, the starting middle Linebacker and as good a run stopping backer as there is in the league, is done for the year and possibly his career with a broken femur. That means rookie and special teamer Jasper Brinkley will be the man in the middle of our old friend Leslie Frazier’s defense on first and second downs. The two linebackers who will stay on the field all three downs are Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. Greenway is one of my personal favorites, and a guy that flat makes plays. He’s not much of a pass rusher, but he’s a factor in both the run and pass game and is the most versatile defender in the defensive front.
The front four of the Vikings is one of the premier units in the game, although DT Pat Williams may be limited with a foot injury. He and DT Kevin Williams form the “Williams Wall” with the help of DE Ray Edwards and of course DE Jared Allen, a front that has not surrendered over 100 yards rushing in 35 straight games. Jared Allen is the difference maker on this defense, a high motor guy with 12.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. He was shut down in the Arizona game last week, and has already come out and said he feels sorry for the Bengals this week.
While this is a very good defense, I’m not sure they are elite, especially in light of all the injuries. What they do well is stop the run. The pass rush and coverage have been surprisingly inconsistent. Allen for instance has 9.5 of his 12.5 sacks in three games, including 7.5 in two games against Green Bay. As we saw with Antwan Odom’s huge game against the Pack, getting huge sack numbers against them is common. He also had 2 more against the Bears two weeks ago, and they may have the worst offensive line in football. The moral is you have to take this guy out of the game with chips, cuts, double teams, and running right at him. The Arizona Cardinals did this to perfection last week, and the other guys did not step up.
I think the key to this game will be the play of the Bengals offensive line, backs and tight ends. Not only do they have to slide to Allen, the interior guys must not let the DTackles push the pocket. The way to negate a speed rush is to push it upfield and allow the quarterback to step up. If the DTackles push the pocket, there’s nowhere to go. Carson Palmer has done a lot of short roll outs to the right this year, and that could spell disaster with #69 bringing pursuit from the backside. Allen will look to do the Lawrence Taylor swipe anytime he’s close, and has caused game changing fumbles often. Palmer lost one last week to blindside corner blitz, so he must be more aware of danger.
The Bengals are going to try to run, that’s no secret. I think they will use plenty of unbalanced three tackle alignments to try to wear down both Allen and Edwards. How effective it will be is a big question. Without EJ Henderson, there’s no way this team is going to be as good against the run, but they’re still good. The Bengals have put up good run totals in just about every game this year, but this one may look more like the last Pittsburgh game where 80 yards may be it. Either way, it’s really about wearing down the DLine and setting up play action, so barring them being down multiple scores, they will stay balanced. The Vikes were called out by their coaches for the lack of physical play last week, so this should be a heavy weight title fight with plenty of body blows.
The Bengals offense comes into the game relative healthy, with only Bernard Scott missing with turf toe. That means plenty of power runs with Ced Benson, Larry Johnson and short passes to Brian Leonard. Carson Palmer has been campaigning for more pass attempts this week, and this game looks like the perfect time for them. Barring a complete meltdown in pass protection, a 300 yard game against this secondary is very plausible. Two things that worry me about the state of the Bengals passing game are the continued lack of a dependable second guy, let alone a third, and the leaky pass protection against straight pressures. Teams have been dropping 7-8 guys in coverage, and have still managed pressure, especially over the right side of Dennis Roland and Bobbie Williams. If the line can give Palmer time, I’d fully expect another big day for Chad MuchoMoutho.
The pre-snap penalties have also crept back over the last few games, as well as some drive killing holding calls. The Metrodome will be incredibly loud, so the Bengals will have to be very focused on not stopping their own drives. These problems have caused the Bengals to struggle all season to score points. They’ve scored over 30 only twice, with the last being the 45 point onslaught against the putrid Bears almost two months ago. The Vikings on the other hand, have scored less than 27 twice (both coming in their losses). What’s the old saying? The team that scores the most points generally wins.
The Bengals finally got a big play out of the passing game last week with Chad’s big catch, and this secondary will give up big plays if they play aggressively. I expect them to stay back and give up underneath passes rather than anything deep. That puts the brunt of the run stopping load on the front seven, so if the Bengals can move the defensive front, the pass game won’t have to carry the offense. Remember that the worst loss this season came when the offense had to score to keep up with the Texans offense. I don’t know that this Bengals offense can win in a shootout. The grind it out style works great when you’re holding teams under 20, so we’ll find out how good the Bengals D really is if they want to win.
When the Packers have the ball:
If the Vikes D weren’t so banged up, the first thing we’d be talking about are the injuries on the offense. On the OLine alone, only the Center does not appear on the injury report. Both Right Tackle Phil Loadholt (who’s done a great job as a rookie) and Right Guard Anthony Herrera appear unlikely to play with a shoulder and a concussion respectively, so injuries could whittle away at the effectiveness of a very good unit. The left side is very good with perennial pro-bowler Steve Hutchison and Bryant McKinnie, and they will certainly go that way more if the right side is undermanned. Much has been made this week of McKinnie “tipping off” plays by his body position, so keep an eye on him pre-snap and see if you can tell what’s coming. Hopefully RE’s Jon Fanene and Michael Johnson can take advantage too.
Even the great Adrian Peterson can’t escape the injury report, coming into the game with an ankle injury. He will go, but some of his incredible cutting and acceleration may be limited. He is the most dynamic back in the league, and even at 80% can make big plays and scores happen at any time. The only other skill guys nicked up are WR Bernard Berrian and TE Vishante Shiancoe. WR Percy Harvin has missed practice time due to migraines, but it’s a problem he’s dealt with his whole life so I don’t expect him to be limited during the game.
The run game is obviously formidable with Peterson and back-up Chester Taylor bringing both power and speed, and the ability to score from anywhere on any play. Tackling is of paramount importance against this team. With as much big-play, quick score ability as this team has, you can’t give them extra yards or allow short plays to break for big yards. The Vikes got away from the run-first philosophy last week and it blew up in their faces, so expect Peterson early and often in this one. Peterson is the first and second choice in the redzone and short yardage, and has a nose for the goal line. The Bengals have bent but not broken all season, and have been good in the redzone. This will be a huge test. Forcing field goals could win the game.
Brett Favre is certainly enjoying one of his best seasons as a pro. 26 touchdowns to only 5 picks shows that he has not forced the ball into spots that he might have early in his career. He has developed a very good rapport with his receivers, especially Rice, Harvin and Shiancoe. The Bengals corners are probably the best Favre will see all year however, so I would expect him to target the defenders in the middle of the field before going after the edges. As we’ve seen from the Oakland game, if the nickel corner or the safeties can be isolated in man coverage it can get ugly. I fully expect Percy Harvin and Shiancoe to do plenty of damage if the pass rush can’t make Favre throw early or inaccurately. Shiancoe is Favre’s favorite redzone target, so linebacker and safety coverage will be key. Favre is a master at pumps and look-offs, so it’s important for the coverage guys to play their man and not spy the quarterback. The one silver lining is that in the two loses, Favre gave the ball away. Peterson will give the ball up as well, so turnover margain is crucial in beating this team.
On the injury front, Domata Peko is out for this game and at least a couple more. Chris Crocker didn’t look good last week after hurting his leg, which could mean Tom Nelson playing safety. Morgan Trent apparently hurt his knee, so David Jones will play nickel. Peko hurts because he’s the best overall DLineman and a guy that’s on the field all three downs. They will need him more for the playoffs, so Tank Johnson and Pat Simms will have to carry the freight for a few weeks. Although it might hurt the run defense, they can also slide Fanene and Frostee Rucker to tackle if need be. I don’t want to see a whole lot of Orien Harris or Shaun Smith.
The secondary is starting to get really thin, although they’ve only had one key member hurt in Crocker to this point. Hall and Joseph are the keys to this outside-in defensive philosophy, but Crocker has been very big as the rangy centerfielder since moving back from nickel earlier this season. The middle will be tested by this very talented skill position group, a group that’s better than any they’ve seen to this point. There will be chances at turnovers, so hopefully we won’t see any easy drops like the Oakland game.
The front seven is going to have control the Vikings run game to have a shot at winning. Dhani Jones is quietly having a hell of a good season and is really the backbone of this defense. Getting Keith Rivers back healthy is huge, and getting more and more contributions from Who Dey Rey is very encouraging. This is a stiff test for this defense that is allowing the fewest points in the NFL. Is this defense really that good, or is this a product of what has been a weak schedule to this point?
Special Teams-
Percy Harvin is an electric return guy on kickoffs. He’s averaging almost 30 per return and has 2 scores. Shayne Graham was god awful on kicks last week and spotting Harvin 10 yards puts the coverage team in a bad spot. The punt returning for the Vikes isn’t nearly as good. Ryan Longwell is a very good kicker with only one miss all year and two made from over 50.
The Bengals will probably continue to rely on Quan Cosby in both the kick and punt return games. He’s been very solid on teams this year, but could use a little more help from his blockers to set up a big return. Coverage teams will have to be more consistent, which may be difficult without ace Kyries Hebert if he can’t go with a knee injury. Shayne Graham is very marginal at this point, and will not be with this team next year.
Prediction-
The Bengals are catching the Vikings at a pretty good time, as they are really banged up physically. They’re coming off a bad loss that either exposed them as a fraud with major flaws, or simply a team having a bad week that will look to bounce back in a big way at home. I think the truth may be somewhere in between. This Vikings team was home for almost six weeks, including the bye, before going to Arizona to play an improving Cardinals team. They got away from what they do best, running behind AP, and turned the ball over trying to play catch up. I do not think either one of these teams are a Super Bowl team, but the Vikes are still probably better than the Bengals in their building.
For the Bengals to win, they must stop the run and they must give Carson Palmer time to attack this very suspect secondary. The Cardinals did this to perfection, but the Bengals may not have the personnel to do the same in the Metrodome. The Bengals must, on both sides of the ball, take the fight right to the Vikings and test their physical will. They must play a much cleaner game that they’ve done against lesser teams the last few weeks. The margin for error may be too small.
They have a great shot at winning, much better than being a 7 point underdog would seem to state, but I don’t think they will score enough in the end. They should hold their own, but big plays will get them. Whether it’s a return, missed tackles on an AP run, or a big pass to Harvin, I think the Bengals will give up a couple of easy scores that are too much to dink and dunk and overcome. They must get an easy one or two of their own, and they must win the turnover battle. It can be done.
Overall, I see a close loss with the combined score higher than the 43 over/under as these are two defenses with slightly undeserved reputations.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 13
(The Bengals win against the last bad team they had on the schedule before two tough road games at Minnesota and San Diego).
Bengals v Lions
This is a game the Bengals must and will win. This is the last of the run of three really bad teams, and Detroit is probably the worst of the three. It’s not really a question of if the Bengals win; it’s how good they look doing it.
When the Lions have the ball:
The Bengals defense, as solid as they have been, have shown one glaring deficiency the last few weeks and that’s the inability to get the quarterback on the ground. Mike Zimmer said as much earlier this week, and was looking for better one on one efforts from the front guys. Enter Left Tackle Jeff Backus and an offensive line that has given up 32 sacks this year. Add in a young quarterback going up against a defense with a solid secondary that shows a lot of looks, and it’s not hard to envision adding a couple more picks to the 18 Matthew Stafford has already thrown.
The Bengals are doing a very good job against the run, and the Lions don’t run well. Kevin Smith has only 603 yards rushing this season, so I don’t expect them to do much against the Bengals even with Domata Peko out with a lingering knee injury.
The Lions one strength offensively is their receiving corps, led by the freak of nature that is Calvin Johnson. The Bengals have had issues against bigger receivers this year, including Mohammed Massoquoui and Andre Johnson, and they don’t come any bigger or more athletic than Johnson. The Bengals usually employ aggressive man coverage, with safety help, but this may not be enough to stop CJ. Most teams throw at least two and sometimes as many as four defenders against him, and several of Stafford’s picks have come from forcing the ball into him. He is the only difference maker on this team.
Brandon Pettigrew was looking to be coming into his own at the Tight End position, but lost his season to a knee injury. The weakness of the Bengals defense has been in the middle of the field, and the Lions are without their best option to exploit it. The Bengals defense should enjoy this game, because the next two are exponentially more difficult against Minnesota and San Diego.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so it will be interesting to see if they take a page from the Browns and sit back in cover 2 or attack the Bengals run game. The Bengals have had one really good game passing this season, and that was against a Bears team that may have the worst secondary in the league. As well as the Bengals have run the ball; I think they could really use a 300 yard passing day.
You have to love a team that can run the ball and stop the run, but this team is not scoring enough points to be considered elite. No one is going to question where the Bengals are a physical football team, as this team looks primarily to wear opponents down with their big, physical offensive line. We saw a glimpse of Andre the Giant last week, and he will only help this team impose their will. This is a run first team, and it plays to the strength of the offensive personnel, but eventually they have to throw.
Carson Palmer is an elite quarterback and quarterback play wins in the playoffs, but he has been getting hit a lot the last few weeks and too many of those are coming on one on one rushes. When you see only three or four guys rush, the Oline has to give Palmer more time to find guys amidst more defenders in the secondary. The timing with the receivers outside of Chad has been inconsistent all year, so it’s paramount to give Palmer enough time to see what’s happening. The anticipation is not there with the complimentary receivers and that’s where losing Chris Henry has hurt. This team has a #1 and two #3’s right now, with little help from the tight ends or other receivers. If the defenses are getting pressure, it means that backs and tight ends have to stay in to protect, so that exacerbates the problem.
Bernard Scott is out, and this is a guy I’d like to see involved more in the pass game going forward. He’s averaging 13 a catch and can be more of a factor given the chance. Caldwell has a shot at 60 catches, but is only averaging 9 a catch. Coles is the closest thing to the second deep threat, but is clearly not the guy he used to be. Purify is garbage. He’s a physical guy who’s not going to hurt you in the run game and can contribute on teams, but clearly has no clue how to run routes and screen defenders. Jerome Simpson must be either stupid, or lazy, because he has the athleticism to play at this level. This team is missing another legitimate receiver, and it’s probably going to be next year before they get him.
But those are issues for upcoming weeks. This week, they have more than enough to beat a Lions defense that has given up over 330 points. Take out the Bears game, and this team has scored more than 23 once all season and went over 80 completions without a TD pass. For those scoring at home, that’s not good. Not scoring enough points cost them two additional wins this season, and they will not win consistently in the playoffs scoring less than 24. Hopefully the Lions can give this team the kind of confidence they got from thumping the Bears, confidence that carried them through two huge games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Chad MuchoMoutho called out the coaches this week for the lack of pass attempts, so look for them to put it up more than last week. But they will still do what the other team is dictating. If they stay back in coverage, the Bengals will run. Teams will have to pick their poison against this offense, but right now, the Bengals are only getting yards with the run game and not points. If I’m a D coordinator, I’m going to make them earn points with long drives too.
Teams:
Scott is out on kickoffs, so it’s either up to Quan Cosby to handle both punts and kick offs or Andre Caldwell trying to redeem himself after giving Oakland a win a couple of weeks ago. The Lions have an average return game, but do have a good kicker so they can trade field goals with the best of them.
Prediction:
Get touchdowns and make the Lions throw from behind. Bad things will happen for Mr. Stafford. Hopefully the Bengals find their lost pass rush and gain some continuity in the pass game. They’ve let two inferior teams hang around the last two weeks, so I’m looking for a breakout. 13 points is a lot to cover, but I think the Bengals do it this week on their way to scoring over 30. Get a win now guys, the road gets steeper after this.
Bengals v Lions
This is a game the Bengals must and will win. This is the last of the run of three really bad teams, and Detroit is probably the worst of the three. It’s not really a question of if the Bengals win; it’s how good they look doing it.
When the Lions have the ball:
The Bengals defense, as solid as they have been, have shown one glaring deficiency the last few weeks and that’s the inability to get the quarterback on the ground. Mike Zimmer said as much earlier this week, and was looking for better one on one efforts from the front guys. Enter Left Tackle Jeff Backus and an offensive line that has given up 32 sacks this year. Add in a young quarterback going up against a defense with a solid secondary that shows a lot of looks, and it’s not hard to envision adding a couple more picks to the 18 Matthew Stafford has already thrown.
The Bengals are doing a very good job against the run, and the Lions don’t run well. Kevin Smith has only 603 yards rushing this season, so I don’t expect them to do much against the Bengals even with Domata Peko out with a lingering knee injury.
The Lions one strength offensively is their receiving corps, led by the freak of nature that is Calvin Johnson. The Bengals have had issues against bigger receivers this year, including Mohammed Massoquoui and Andre Johnson, and they don’t come any bigger or more athletic than Johnson. The Bengals usually employ aggressive man coverage, with safety help, but this may not be enough to stop CJ. Most teams throw at least two and sometimes as many as four defenders against him, and several of Stafford’s picks have come from forcing the ball into him. He is the only difference maker on this team.
Brandon Pettigrew was looking to be coming into his own at the Tight End position, but lost his season to a knee injury. The weakness of the Bengals defense has been in the middle of the field, and the Lions are without their best option to exploit it. The Bengals defense should enjoy this game, because the next two are exponentially more difficult against Minnesota and San Diego.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so it will be interesting to see if they take a page from the Browns and sit back in cover 2 or attack the Bengals run game. The Bengals have had one really good game passing this season, and that was against a Bears team that may have the worst secondary in the league. As well as the Bengals have run the ball; I think they could really use a 300 yard passing day.
You have to love a team that can run the ball and stop the run, but this team is not scoring enough points to be considered elite. No one is going to question where the Bengals are a physical football team, as this team looks primarily to wear opponents down with their big, physical offensive line. We saw a glimpse of Andre the Giant last week, and he will only help this team impose their will. This is a run first team, and it plays to the strength of the offensive personnel, but eventually they have to throw.
Carson Palmer is an elite quarterback and quarterback play wins in the playoffs, but he has been getting hit a lot the last few weeks and too many of those are coming on one on one rushes. When you see only three or four guys rush, the Oline has to give Palmer more time to find guys amidst more defenders in the secondary. The timing with the receivers outside of Chad has been inconsistent all year, so it’s paramount to give Palmer enough time to see what’s happening. The anticipation is not there with the complimentary receivers and that’s where losing Chris Henry has hurt. This team has a #1 and two #3’s right now, with little help from the tight ends or other receivers. If the defenses are getting pressure, it means that backs and tight ends have to stay in to protect, so that exacerbates the problem.
Bernard Scott is out, and this is a guy I’d like to see involved more in the pass game going forward. He’s averaging 13 a catch and can be more of a factor given the chance. Caldwell has a shot at 60 catches, but is only averaging 9 a catch. Coles is the closest thing to the second deep threat, but is clearly not the guy he used to be. Purify is garbage. He’s a physical guy who’s not going to hurt you in the run game and can contribute on teams, but clearly has no clue how to run routes and screen defenders. Jerome Simpson must be either stupid, or lazy, because he has the athleticism to play at this level. This team is missing another legitimate receiver, and it’s probably going to be next year before they get him.
But those are issues for upcoming weeks. This week, they have more than enough to beat a Lions defense that has given up over 330 points. Take out the Bears game, and this team has scored more than 23 once all season and went over 80 completions without a TD pass. For those scoring at home, that’s not good. Not scoring enough points cost them two additional wins this season, and they will not win consistently in the playoffs scoring less than 24. Hopefully the Lions can give this team the kind of confidence they got from thumping the Bears, confidence that carried them through two huge games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Chad MuchoMoutho called out the coaches this week for the lack of pass attempts, so look for them to put it up more than last week. But they will still do what the other team is dictating. If they stay back in coverage, the Bengals will run. Teams will have to pick their poison against this offense, but right now, the Bengals are only getting yards with the run game and not points. If I’m a D coordinator, I’m going to make them earn points with long drives too.
Teams:
Scott is out on kickoffs, so it’s either up to Quan Cosby to handle both punts and kick offs or Andre Caldwell trying to redeem himself after giving Oakland a win a couple of weeks ago. The Lions have an average return game, but do have a good kicker so they can trade field goals with the best of them.
Prediction:
Get touchdowns and make the Lions throw from behind. Bad things will happen for Mr. Stafford. Hopefully the Bengals find their lost pass rush and gain some continuity in the pass game. They’ve let two inferior teams hang around the last two weeks, so I’m looking for a breakout. 13 points is a lot to cover, but I think the Bengals do it this week on their way to scoring over 30. Get a win now guys, the road gets steeper after this.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 12
I can't find the second Browns v. Bengals primer (I know, you're disappointed). Suffice it to say it was an ugly game, and the Bengals escaped with a win. The one thing that sticks out from that game was the extremely poor pass protection on the right side of the line. Dennis Roland was consistently beaten and Bobbie Williams had to help on inside rushes. That left the interior open and Palmer got hit a lot. That actually started in the Raiders game, but would continue to be a problem for the offense the rest of the way.
If I find the primer somewhere, I'll put it up.
If I find the primer somewhere, I'll put it up.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 11
(Big time disappointment this week. The red hot Bengals go out and lay an offensive egg in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski would basically find Morgan Trent twice in one-on-one coverage at the end of the game, including the game winning touchdown. At least he'd go on the next week to do the same thing to the Steelers).
Bengals v. Raiders
So this is an automatic in the win column right? That’s what the Eagles thought too. While I do think the Bengals will come away with a win, this Raiders team does have some talent and is not quite on the level of Cleveland, Detroit, or Tampa in terms of the worst of the many bad teams in the league. Still, contending teams win games like this, even if it’s a little uglier than it should be on paper.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Raiders defense is pretty good actually. The have a solid Dline led by Richard Seymour and Gerrard Warren and a decent secondary led by the best corner in all of football, Nnamdi Asomugha (Nam-dee As-o-mwa). (You’re welcome). It’s tough to evaluate this unit’s rankings though, because of how badly their offense has played this season. While they are only allowing opponents to convert third downs at a 34% clip, are allowing less than 60% completion percentage, and are in the middle of the pack in sacks, they are giving up almost 370 yds/game and are being dominated in time of possession. This may be the best single unit of any of the teams with 2 or less wins, but they are severely hampered by their offense.
When a team has given up a ton of yards, but their 3rd down conversion rate is low, it tells you a couple things: they’ve given up big plays, and they’ve given up a lot of first downs on first and second down. Both of those bode well for a Bengals offense that has shown some big play ability. The run defense for the Raiders has been bad, but I wonder how much of that is fatigue caused by being on the field so long. The front, led by Seymour and Warren, is pretty stout and has gotten production from backups as well. I’m not enamored with their linebackers however, and see this group as a weakness to be exploited in the run game. They are athletic, but not particularly stout and will bend to constant pounding by Cincy blockers. Kirk Morrison, the Mike, is the third leading tackler in the league, so it’ll be important for Jeremy Johnson or the linemen to get a hat on him. They have done a very nice job against tight ends this season in the pass game and can run, so expect good backside pursuit on plays to the edges.
The Bengals, even if Ced Benson is out, will look to get the run game going against this team. If the pattern of the first half of the season holds to form, Oakland’s offense won’t do much and the Bengals will have the ball plenty. Attack directly at this front or with quick cut backs, but don’t expect much on the edges. Asomugha is especially good at run support from the edge; though he will have his hands full chasing Chad Eightfive around the field. The run game will set up the play action pass, which is the best way to get big plays against this secondary. This is a unit that has given up the most rushing touchdowns in the league, so expect whoever is carrying the rock to have some success. I’d like to see at least 10 and more like 15 touches for Great Scott, who will be the feature back since Benson is looking doubtful. Brian Leonard will see more than just his normal third down touches, and newly acquired Larry Johnson may see a series or two if Benson is out. Scott especially, has shown flashes of brilliance. If the Raiders can’t slow down the Bengals running attack, they have little chance of winning.
The Raiders, thanks to that #21, are as good as anyone (namely the Bengals) at shutting down the #1 receiver for the opposition. That means that once again, the complimentary receivers for the Bengals must step up. This will be more difficult if Vern Coles can’t go with what is being called a head injury. The best thing going for the pass offense is that they’ve played Baltimore and Pittsburgh back to back, so anyone else’s pass rush should look positively slow by comparison. I do expect the Raiders to have a lot of 8 in the box to stop the run, and will probably bring pressure more often than not, relying on the coverage of their corners. Carson Palmer must stay patient and make good decisions, as turnovers are the only realistic chance the Raiders have of beating this team. I am still concerned about the proportion of throws going to Chad in this offense, and that is only exacerbated if Coles doesn’t play.
If the Bengals can continue to score touchdowns in the redzone as the have all season, and protect the ball, they will win. The Raiders are giving up 24 a game, and should oblige. Keep the ball, stay balanced, and frustrate this defense into mistakes. That is the formula.
When the Raiders have the ball:
They have been abysmally bad this season. So bad in fact, that only the woeful Cleveland offense and their 5 offensive touchdowns keep the Raiders from being the worst in the league. Jamarcus Russell has officially fulfilled his “bust” label this season, further demonstrating that the player personnel evaluation skills Al Davis once had have totally eroded. The only thing Tom Cable could do, besides kicking his dog or beating his wife (allegedly), was benching Russell. Enter Brad Gostkowski, who when we last saw him, was beating the Bengals in Tampa courtesy of the worst roughing the passer penalty in the history of the sport. Still, a win is a win, and once again (a la Derek Anderson) the Bengals face a marginal quarterback whose career highlight came against them.
This offense is built to run the ball, well supposedly for running the ball. Well, it would be if they had an offensive line that actually move people. The running backs are a relatively talented group, with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush all getting touches this year. The Bengals bring the second best run stopping unit to the party however, and I think you’ll see plenty of defenders ready to put the game in the quarterback’s hands. As Marvin Lewis said last week, the secondary especially has done a really nice job in run support this year and that defenses that are really good against the run do it by defending from the outside in. Leon Hall, JJoe, Chris Crocker and Chinedum Ndukwe have all had a hand in the getting the run defense to #2.
When the game has been in the hands of the Raiders quarterback(s), bad things have happened for them. Can a back-up do any better? Well it’s hard to be worse. While I will say that this may be the single worst collection of pass catchers in the league (really, there are better receivers in the UFL), the play of Jamarcus Russell has been putrid. Completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing 2 touchdowns to 9 picks just won’t get it done. The lone bright spot in the pass game is the play of tight end Zach Miller who is a legit pro bowl level player. He is the main target to watch on third downs. The receivers do have speed, so the secondary must avoid complacency against the big play threat. With JJoe not completely healthy with his lingering foot issue, he especially may be a target deep. Morgan Trent and David Jones may see more time in this game to spell Joseph.
The Dline and blitzing linebackers should be able to harass Mr. Gradkowski all day, which should lead to poor throws and turnovers. The worst case scenario would play out like the first Browns game where the Bengals fail to score on early opportunities and the Raiders put together a drive or two and gain some confidence. Get this team down early and step on the throat. Michael Johnson and Frostee Rucker will get plenty of opportunities to build on their efforts last week.
Teams:
The most interesting part of this game will be to see if Bernard Scott continues to run back kicks if he’s also the primary back for the offense. He won the Steelers game with a terrific display of cut back ability, acceleration, and top end speed. Can you tell I love this guy? Wait until you see him catch passes, I’m telling you, he’s a poor man’s Chris Johnson. The Bengals can’t afford to lose him or Andre Caldwell, so maybe they entertain using Quan Cosby. The Bengals kick coverage has been okay this season, but the returners from Oakland are nothing special. Raider coverage has given up a touchdown, but hopefully won’t be kicking off much in this one.
Prediction:
While I think the Bengals will win this game, I won’t be surprised if they don’t cover the 9 point spread. I also won’t be surprised if for one game the Raiders find some semblance of a passing game and hit on a big play or two. This reminds me a bit of the first Cleveland game, but hopefully not the last Tampa game against Gradkowski. In that game, the offense failed to convert several key conversions in the second half leading to a worn out defense giving up the game winning points. This Raiders team; however, is not as good and this Bengals team is much better. The Bengals are sound in all phases of the game, and even if they have to grind, they will come out 8-2 with two more bad teams coming up.
Bengals v. Raiders
So this is an automatic in the win column right? That’s what the Eagles thought too. While I do think the Bengals will come away with a win, this Raiders team does have some talent and is not quite on the level of Cleveland, Detroit, or Tampa in terms of the worst of the many bad teams in the league. Still, contending teams win games like this, even if it’s a little uglier than it should be on paper.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Raiders defense is pretty good actually. The have a solid Dline led by Richard Seymour and Gerrard Warren and a decent secondary led by the best corner in all of football, Nnamdi Asomugha (Nam-dee As-o-mwa). (You’re welcome). It’s tough to evaluate this unit’s rankings though, because of how badly their offense has played this season. While they are only allowing opponents to convert third downs at a 34% clip, are allowing less than 60% completion percentage, and are in the middle of the pack in sacks, they are giving up almost 370 yds/game and are being dominated in time of possession. This may be the best single unit of any of the teams with 2 or less wins, but they are severely hampered by their offense.
When a team has given up a ton of yards, but their 3rd down conversion rate is low, it tells you a couple things: they’ve given up big plays, and they’ve given up a lot of first downs on first and second down. Both of those bode well for a Bengals offense that has shown some big play ability. The run defense for the Raiders has been bad, but I wonder how much of that is fatigue caused by being on the field so long. The front, led by Seymour and Warren, is pretty stout and has gotten production from backups as well. I’m not enamored with their linebackers however, and see this group as a weakness to be exploited in the run game. They are athletic, but not particularly stout and will bend to constant pounding by Cincy blockers. Kirk Morrison, the Mike, is the third leading tackler in the league, so it’ll be important for Jeremy Johnson or the linemen to get a hat on him. They have done a very nice job against tight ends this season in the pass game and can run, so expect good backside pursuit on plays to the edges.
The Bengals, even if Ced Benson is out, will look to get the run game going against this team. If the pattern of the first half of the season holds to form, Oakland’s offense won’t do much and the Bengals will have the ball plenty. Attack directly at this front or with quick cut backs, but don’t expect much on the edges. Asomugha is especially good at run support from the edge; though he will have his hands full chasing Chad Eightfive around the field. The run game will set up the play action pass, which is the best way to get big plays against this secondary. This is a unit that has given up the most rushing touchdowns in the league, so expect whoever is carrying the rock to have some success. I’d like to see at least 10 and more like 15 touches for Great Scott, who will be the feature back since Benson is looking doubtful. Brian Leonard will see more than just his normal third down touches, and newly acquired Larry Johnson may see a series or two if Benson is out. Scott especially, has shown flashes of brilliance. If the Raiders can’t slow down the Bengals running attack, they have little chance of winning.
The Raiders, thanks to that #21, are as good as anyone (namely the Bengals) at shutting down the #1 receiver for the opposition. That means that once again, the complimentary receivers for the Bengals must step up. This will be more difficult if Vern Coles can’t go with what is being called a head injury. The best thing going for the pass offense is that they’ve played Baltimore and Pittsburgh back to back, so anyone else’s pass rush should look positively slow by comparison. I do expect the Raiders to have a lot of 8 in the box to stop the run, and will probably bring pressure more often than not, relying on the coverage of their corners. Carson Palmer must stay patient and make good decisions, as turnovers are the only realistic chance the Raiders have of beating this team. I am still concerned about the proportion of throws going to Chad in this offense, and that is only exacerbated if Coles doesn’t play.
If the Bengals can continue to score touchdowns in the redzone as the have all season, and protect the ball, they will win. The Raiders are giving up 24 a game, and should oblige. Keep the ball, stay balanced, and frustrate this defense into mistakes. That is the formula.
When the Raiders have the ball:
They have been abysmally bad this season. So bad in fact, that only the woeful Cleveland offense and their 5 offensive touchdowns keep the Raiders from being the worst in the league. Jamarcus Russell has officially fulfilled his “bust” label this season, further demonstrating that the player personnel evaluation skills Al Davis once had have totally eroded. The only thing Tom Cable could do, besides kicking his dog or beating his wife (allegedly), was benching Russell. Enter Brad Gostkowski, who when we last saw him, was beating the Bengals in Tampa courtesy of the worst roughing the passer penalty in the history of the sport. Still, a win is a win, and once again (a la Derek Anderson) the Bengals face a marginal quarterback whose career highlight came against them.
This offense is built to run the ball, well supposedly for running the ball. Well, it would be if they had an offensive line that actually move people. The running backs are a relatively talented group, with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush all getting touches this year. The Bengals bring the second best run stopping unit to the party however, and I think you’ll see plenty of defenders ready to put the game in the quarterback’s hands. As Marvin Lewis said last week, the secondary especially has done a really nice job in run support this year and that defenses that are really good against the run do it by defending from the outside in. Leon Hall, JJoe, Chris Crocker and Chinedum Ndukwe have all had a hand in the getting the run defense to #2.
When the game has been in the hands of the Raiders quarterback(s), bad things have happened for them. Can a back-up do any better? Well it’s hard to be worse. While I will say that this may be the single worst collection of pass catchers in the league (really, there are better receivers in the UFL), the play of Jamarcus Russell has been putrid. Completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing 2 touchdowns to 9 picks just won’t get it done. The lone bright spot in the pass game is the play of tight end Zach Miller who is a legit pro bowl level player. He is the main target to watch on third downs. The receivers do have speed, so the secondary must avoid complacency against the big play threat. With JJoe not completely healthy with his lingering foot issue, he especially may be a target deep. Morgan Trent and David Jones may see more time in this game to spell Joseph.
The Dline and blitzing linebackers should be able to harass Mr. Gradkowski all day, which should lead to poor throws and turnovers. The worst case scenario would play out like the first Browns game where the Bengals fail to score on early opportunities and the Raiders put together a drive or two and gain some confidence. Get this team down early and step on the throat. Michael Johnson and Frostee Rucker will get plenty of opportunities to build on their efforts last week.
Teams:
The most interesting part of this game will be to see if Bernard Scott continues to run back kicks if he’s also the primary back for the offense. He won the Steelers game with a terrific display of cut back ability, acceleration, and top end speed. Can you tell I love this guy? Wait until you see him catch passes, I’m telling you, he’s a poor man’s Chris Johnson. The Bengals can’t afford to lose him or Andre Caldwell, so maybe they entertain using Quan Cosby. The Bengals kick coverage has been okay this season, but the returners from Oakland are nothing special. Raider coverage has given up a touchdown, but hopefully won’t be kicking off much in this one.
Prediction:
While I think the Bengals will win this game, I won’t be surprised if they don’t cover the 9 point spread. I also won’t be surprised if for one game the Raiders find some semblance of a passing game and hit on a big play or two. This reminds me a bit of the first Cleveland game, but hopefully not the last Tampa game against Gradkowski. In that game, the offense failed to convert several key conversions in the second half leading to a worn out defense giving up the game winning points. This Raiders team; however, is not as good and this Bengals team is much better. The Bengals are sound in all phases of the game, and even if they have to grind, they will come out 8-2 with two more bad teams coming up.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
My advice to NFL owners and players
You better sort the collective bargaining agreement out. People don't want to hear about rich people squabbling over money. All we want is our football, we don't really care how much money Peyton Manning is making or how much the Jets are worth. We want our rookies signed before training camp so they can help our teams THIS year. We want our all-time favorite players to have health insurance as they get older. This isn't rocket science, it's greed. Figure it out, or jeopardize the greatest monopoly in the country. Don't ruin the sport the way baseball did in 1994. I'm really sorry you all aren't making enough money....join the club, membership is free.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Blueprint-072010
Yesterday on Mark's show the discussion was about what the Reds could do, or not do, in the trade market to bolster this team. One of the regular's to the Dayton sports radio scene called up with the suggestion of trading for Carl Crawford from the Rays. I thought I'd take a look at that first.
Carl Crawford is the best player on the second best team in the league, to the tune of 4.8 Wins Above Replacement (Evan Longoria is second with a 4.1 in case you were wondering). Crawford is in the last year of his deal, but a trade when the team is leading the Wildcard and only 2.5 games behind a suddenly beat up Yankees team is unlikely. I think this is the Rays last, best shot at a title, until they get into the new stadium anyhow. Reportedly the team will slash their payroll to $60M next season, meaning that Crawford and fellow free agents Carlos Pena and Raphael Soriano are all gone. Now with Crawford, the Rays have a potential replacement in AAA in Desmond Jennings, and 1B and closers are relatively easy to find. I expect all to be offered arbitration, and all to decline. The prospect rich Rays will get several compensatory picks for their troubles. That's a long way of saying, that Crawford and his .318avg .374obp 11hr 33sb's are off the table. If you're looking at Rays, BJ Upton is the one that's available, though I'd steer clear.
Speaking of Reds, there are a couple interesting names I'd consider. One is Ty Wigginton, the Mark DeRosa-ish Baltimore Oriole all-star* (you get an asterisk if you're taken because your team has to be represented). TW can play 3B, 2B, and 1B and has a better bat than Miguel Cairo to fill in for the inevitable Scott Rolen injury. Last year, it cost the Cardinals RP Chris Perez and a PTBNL for DeRosa and I can't imagine it would be that much more for TW and his expiring contract. He'd have about $1.4-$1.5M on his deal, so they would be adding payroll unless Baltimore kicked in for a better prospect (which is what I'd expect). Problem is, the Reds are struggling with the bullpen already, so I'm not sure what they'd have to give up.
The other name is Jermain Dye, a free agent who's apparently priced himself out of a gig this season (see Owens, Terrell). He's a career .274 hitter who averaged 30 hr's a season in homer friendly Chicago, but he's atrocious in the field. His bat is superior to Jonny Gomes, but I don't know if he'd come on the cheap to a team where he won't play everyday. But who knows?
Aside from those guys, we've already debunked the idea of adding starting pitching now that Edinson Volquez has returned. That leaves the bullpen, and unless some teams start falling out of the race, the market rate for help is too high. The Reds may have to be content with dumpster diving for veterans like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen. Is Stormy Weathers available? (I sure hope not).
Who's Hot-
Gordon Beckham (also a pick up suggestion)-.500avg 2hr 8rbis last 2 weeks
Buster Posey & Aramis Ramirez-17rbi each last 2 weeks
John Jay-.452avg 8r last 2 weeks
Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, Stephen Stasburg-all 2-0 last 2 weeks
Johan Santana-2-0 last 2 weeks (trade for this guy if you can, the Mets play Ari, Pit, and Hou the next 20 games)
Madison Bumgarner-3 and freakin 0 the last 2 weeks.
Who's Not-
Jay Bruce-(sigh) He had a 3 run jack robbed vs. Col. .089 0hr last 2 weeks
Chone Figgins-.158avg 1sb last 2 weeks (big disappointment this year-look for him to be a good value pick next year)
Dan Haren & Edwin Jackson-combined 0-4 7era for the Dbacks the last 2 weeks. When's this season over? Seems like the Dbacks never got started.
Positional Pick-ups-
Mr. Beckham is back in the swing. Only owned in 44% of yahoo leagues.
Chris Davis 1B Tex-Now that Smoak is gone, Davis can catch fire (sorry, that was lame). He can help if you need homers, but he's boom or busty.
Yunel Escobar SS Tor-Toronto has been homer happy for everyone the last couple of years, and Escobar's already hit 2 in his new uni (even though they were on the road). I expect him to tear it up and for A Gonzalez to fall off with the Braves. (Another case of "real" baseball value being different from fantasy).
Call-ups-
It's getting to the time when call-ups can impact your stretch run too. These are some positional guys worth watching.
Brett Wallace 1B Tor-Really good hitter who could put up big numbers in a hurry in that park.
JP Arencibia C Tor-John Buck is on the block for the fading Jays, and Arencibia has been killing it in AAA. His numbers will regress outside Vegas baby, but he's still an above average hitting catcher. File this name away for next year, he could be Miguel Oliva-ish.
Dustin Ackley LF Sea-Talk is Ackley is going to play infield, which only helps his value. He was arguably the best hitting prospect in the draft this year and is reportedly very close to the bigs.
***Editor's note-Once again our on air segment is nothing like this, so I'd advise you to listen AND read the blog. Really, you should be reading this blog at least twice a day. It's like brushing your teeth!***
Carl Crawford is the best player on the second best team in the league, to the tune of 4.8 Wins Above Replacement (Evan Longoria is second with a 4.1 in case you were wondering). Crawford is in the last year of his deal, but a trade when the team is leading the Wildcard and only 2.5 games behind a suddenly beat up Yankees team is unlikely. I think this is the Rays last, best shot at a title, until they get into the new stadium anyhow. Reportedly the team will slash their payroll to $60M next season, meaning that Crawford and fellow free agents Carlos Pena and Raphael Soriano are all gone. Now with Crawford, the Rays have a potential replacement in AAA in Desmond Jennings, and 1B and closers are relatively easy to find. I expect all to be offered arbitration, and all to decline. The prospect rich Rays will get several compensatory picks for their troubles. That's a long way of saying, that Crawford and his .318avg .374obp 11hr 33sb's are off the table. If you're looking at Rays, BJ Upton is the one that's available, though I'd steer clear.
Speaking of Reds, there are a couple interesting names I'd consider. One is Ty Wigginton, the Mark DeRosa-ish Baltimore Oriole all-star* (you get an asterisk if you're taken because your team has to be represented). TW can play 3B, 2B, and 1B and has a better bat than Miguel Cairo to fill in for the inevitable Scott Rolen injury. Last year, it cost the Cardinals RP Chris Perez and a PTBNL for DeRosa and I can't imagine it would be that much more for TW and his expiring contract. He'd have about $1.4-$1.5M on his deal, so they would be adding payroll unless Baltimore kicked in for a better prospect (which is what I'd expect). Problem is, the Reds are struggling with the bullpen already, so I'm not sure what they'd have to give up.
The other name is Jermain Dye, a free agent who's apparently priced himself out of a gig this season (see Owens, Terrell). He's a career .274 hitter who averaged 30 hr's a season in homer friendly Chicago, but he's atrocious in the field. His bat is superior to Jonny Gomes, but I don't know if he'd come on the cheap to a team where he won't play everyday. But who knows?
Aside from those guys, we've already debunked the idea of adding starting pitching now that Edinson Volquez has returned. That leaves the bullpen, and unless some teams start falling out of the race, the market rate for help is too high. The Reds may have to be content with dumpster diving for veterans like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen. Is Stormy Weathers available? (I sure hope not).
Who's Hot-
Gordon Beckham (also a pick up suggestion)-.500avg 2hr 8rbis last 2 weeks
Buster Posey & Aramis Ramirez-17rbi each last 2 weeks
John Jay-.452avg 8r last 2 weeks
Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, Stephen Stasburg-all 2-0 last 2 weeks
Johan Santana-2-0 last 2 weeks (trade for this guy if you can, the Mets play Ari, Pit, and Hou the next 20 games)
Madison Bumgarner-3 and freakin 0 the last 2 weeks.
Who's Not-
Jay Bruce-(sigh) He had a 3 run jack robbed vs. Col. .089 0hr last 2 weeks
Chone Figgins-.158avg 1sb last 2 weeks (big disappointment this year-look for him to be a good value pick next year)
Dan Haren & Edwin Jackson-combined 0-4 7era for the Dbacks the last 2 weeks. When's this season over? Seems like the Dbacks never got started.
Positional Pick-ups-
Mr. Beckham is back in the swing. Only owned in 44% of yahoo leagues.
Chris Davis 1B Tex-Now that Smoak is gone, Davis can catch fire (sorry, that was lame). He can help if you need homers, but he's boom or busty.
Yunel Escobar SS Tor-Toronto has been homer happy for everyone the last couple of years, and Escobar's already hit 2 in his new uni (even though they were on the road). I expect him to tear it up and for A Gonzalez to fall off with the Braves. (Another case of "real" baseball value being different from fantasy).
Call-ups-
It's getting to the time when call-ups can impact your stretch run too. These are some positional guys worth watching.
Brett Wallace 1B Tor-Really good hitter who could put up big numbers in a hurry in that park.
JP Arencibia C Tor-John Buck is on the block for the fading Jays, and Arencibia has been killing it in AAA. His numbers will regress outside Vegas baby, but he's still an above average hitting catcher. File this name away for next year, he could be Miguel Oliva-ish.
Dustin Ackley LF Sea-Talk is Ackley is going to play infield, which only helps his value. He was arguably the best hitting prospect in the draft this year and is reportedly very close to the bigs.
***Editor's note-Once again our on air segment is nothing like this, so I'd advise you to listen AND read the blog. Really, you should be reading this blog at least twice a day. It's like brushing your teeth!***
Trades a' Brewin'
You'll have to pardon the pun, but I couldn't resist considering how many times I've heard Milwaukee Brewers named in various trade rumors as we get closer to the non-waiver trade dealine.
Prince Fielder is certainly the highest profile name out there in the ethos, and would be an absolute game changer for the right club. Corey Hart is also prominently mentioned, and those two got me thinking (scary, I know), that the Reds division is shaping up to be a hot bed of potential trade activity.
Of the six teams in the division, two are clearly buyers while four are clearly sellers. That's saying something considering there's only one division in all of baseball, the AL West, that looks like a runaway. In fact, I calculate 16 teams still with playoff aspirations, leaving only 14 clearly as sellers across baseball. Four of those are in the NL Central! Of course that's because 2 of the worst teams in baseball, Pittsburgh and Houston reside in the division and Milwaukee and Chicago are probably the most disappointing teams in the NL.
So let's take a look at the buyers first. Cincinnati and St. Louis look as though they will continue to fight for the division AND a wildcard spot all year, and both teams have needs. The Reds appear to have gotten a huge boost from the return of Edinson Volquez to the rotation, but have real bullpen needs beyond Rhodes and Cordero. The lineup looses major punch when Rolen is out, and could use a RH stick, but additions are not likely. Two names that are interesting offensively would be Ty Wigginton and Jermaine Dye. Wigginton is in the Mark Derosa mold, a little pop and an okay glove at a lot of positions, who'd fill in for Rolen much better than Cairo. Dye is a bat I'd rather have than Gomes, but I don't see the payroll strapped Reds paying the free agent for less than half an overpriced season. He's awful defensively as well, so he'd have to be subbed for by Gomes or Heisey. Unfortunately, I think the Reds will continue to reward Gomes for a torrid May with playing time too often down the stretch.
The Cards have a tremendous rotation, but perennially have problems in the bullpen as well. While they've not gotten the offensive production the Reds have this season, it's also hard to envision them adding more than a complimentary offensive piece. The common denominator is a need for bullpen arms, but there just aren't that many out there at a fair price right now. The Reds are currently dumpster diving for veteran free agent arms like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen, which shows you both what the Reds payroll is like and what the trade market is like. Not good either way. It's a sellers market folks, and the prices are very high right now.
I don't predict either team brings in a big name like a Dan Haren. The division may very well come down to what complimentary pieces are able to best contribute down the stretch, more than the impact of a hired gun.
So what about the sellers? Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Chicago all have pieces they'd like to deal. Some are more attractive than others.
Houston has had Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt available for some time. Brett Myers has been added to that list, and is probably the most attractive. Berkman and Oswalt have big salaries, while Myers is more affordable AND has pitched in both the rotation and the pen successfully. My guess is he's the most likely to be moved. I'd thrown out the idea of trading closer Matt Lindstrom, but he's cheap for the Stros for a couple more years, so it would take some good prospects coming back to make it happen. The Astros minor leagues are horrid, probably the worst in the league, so they need numbers more than a single stud prospect. This reminds me of where Pittsburgh was when Neal Huntington took over a couple years ago. It was quantity over quality, and perhaps someone can take advantage of that. The Astros will not take on salary, however, and are notoriously difficult to deal with. Prediction: Myers is it.
Pittsburgh has Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit, Octavio Dotel, and possibly Joel Hanrahan and Brandon Donnelly out of the pen. As bad as the Pirates starting pitching has been, I don't see the starters going anywhere. Dotel is probably the one they'd like to move the most, and the team certainly has been active the last couple of years at the deadline (McLouth, Bay, Nady, etc.). Donnelly has pitched big innings in the playoffs for the Angels and Hanrahan had a brief stint as a closer. 1st time all-star Evan Meek is a name you hear, but I can't see the Pirates trading a good young player that far from arbitration. They only deal guys once they get expensive. They've been rumored to want to move Doumit for two years, but he's poor defensively and has a history of injuries. I don't see it. Prediction: Dotel finds a new home, and maybe they move another reliever.
Milwaukee has Fielder and Hart as mentioned. Fielder is in the last year of an $18M extension, but he's still under team control. Their options are to trade him now, extend him (which seems less and less likely), or offer arbitration. I really think trading him now is the best option. They have Matt Gamel who I still think I can become a good offensive player, and as you can see this year, they need more starting pitching. The asking price for Corey Hart is starting pitching as well, good starting pitching. According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle via mlbtraderumors.com, the asking price for Hart included either Johnathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner from the Giants. That's a heck of a lot for a guy who was rumored to be non-tendered at the beginning of the season. Imagine what they're asking for Fielder? Prediction: both of the top bats on the market get moved, probably to American League teams.
Chicago has so many bad contracts it's not even worth the carpal tunnel syndrome to type them. Suffice it to say there are probably 6,7, maybe 8, maybe more guys they'd like to move, but Ted Lilly is probably the most palatable for a buyer. The New York Mets or even the Yankees could be in play for Lilly. Derek Lee is also a possibility as he will be a free agent after the season, but it's hard to imagine the Cubs kicking in any salary relief in a deal. A team like the Rangers or the Angels might make sense for Lee.
All in all, this should be the most active division in the trade market over the next couple of weeks. It should be fun to watch.
Prince Fielder is certainly the highest profile name out there in the ethos, and would be an absolute game changer for the right club. Corey Hart is also prominently mentioned, and those two got me thinking (scary, I know), that the Reds division is shaping up to be a hot bed of potential trade activity.
Of the six teams in the division, two are clearly buyers while four are clearly sellers. That's saying something considering there's only one division in all of baseball, the AL West, that looks like a runaway. In fact, I calculate 16 teams still with playoff aspirations, leaving only 14 clearly as sellers across baseball. Four of those are in the NL Central! Of course that's because 2 of the worst teams in baseball, Pittsburgh and Houston reside in the division and Milwaukee and Chicago are probably the most disappointing teams in the NL.
So let's take a look at the buyers first. Cincinnati and St. Louis look as though they will continue to fight for the division AND a wildcard spot all year, and both teams have needs. The Reds appear to have gotten a huge boost from the return of Edinson Volquez to the rotation, but have real bullpen needs beyond Rhodes and Cordero. The lineup looses major punch when Rolen is out, and could use a RH stick, but additions are not likely. Two names that are interesting offensively would be Ty Wigginton and Jermaine Dye. Wigginton is in the Mark Derosa mold, a little pop and an okay glove at a lot of positions, who'd fill in for Rolen much better than Cairo. Dye is a bat I'd rather have than Gomes, but I don't see the payroll strapped Reds paying the free agent for less than half an overpriced season. He's awful defensively as well, so he'd have to be subbed for by Gomes or Heisey. Unfortunately, I think the Reds will continue to reward Gomes for a torrid May with playing time too often down the stretch.
The Cards have a tremendous rotation, but perennially have problems in the bullpen as well. While they've not gotten the offensive production the Reds have this season, it's also hard to envision them adding more than a complimentary offensive piece. The common denominator is a need for bullpen arms, but there just aren't that many out there at a fair price right now. The Reds are currently dumpster diving for veteran free agent arms like Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen, which shows you both what the Reds payroll is like and what the trade market is like. Not good either way. It's a sellers market folks, and the prices are very high right now.
I don't predict either team brings in a big name like a Dan Haren. The division may very well come down to what complimentary pieces are able to best contribute down the stretch, more than the impact of a hired gun.
So what about the sellers? Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Chicago all have pieces they'd like to deal. Some are more attractive than others.
Houston has had Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt available for some time. Brett Myers has been added to that list, and is probably the most attractive. Berkman and Oswalt have big salaries, while Myers is more affordable AND has pitched in both the rotation and the pen successfully. My guess is he's the most likely to be moved. I'd thrown out the idea of trading closer Matt Lindstrom, but he's cheap for the Stros for a couple more years, so it would take some good prospects coming back to make it happen. The Astros minor leagues are horrid, probably the worst in the league, so they need numbers more than a single stud prospect. This reminds me of where Pittsburgh was when Neal Huntington took over a couple years ago. It was quantity over quality, and perhaps someone can take advantage of that. The Astros will not take on salary, however, and are notoriously difficult to deal with. Prediction: Myers is it.
Pittsburgh has Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit, Octavio Dotel, and possibly Joel Hanrahan and Brandon Donnelly out of the pen. As bad as the Pirates starting pitching has been, I don't see the starters going anywhere. Dotel is probably the one they'd like to move the most, and the team certainly has been active the last couple of years at the deadline (McLouth, Bay, Nady, etc.). Donnelly has pitched big innings in the playoffs for the Angels and Hanrahan had a brief stint as a closer. 1st time all-star Evan Meek is a name you hear, but I can't see the Pirates trading a good young player that far from arbitration. They only deal guys once they get expensive. They've been rumored to want to move Doumit for two years, but he's poor defensively and has a history of injuries. I don't see it. Prediction: Dotel finds a new home, and maybe they move another reliever.
Milwaukee has Fielder and Hart as mentioned. Fielder is in the last year of an $18M extension, but he's still under team control. Their options are to trade him now, extend him (which seems less and less likely), or offer arbitration. I really think trading him now is the best option. They have Matt Gamel who I still think I can become a good offensive player, and as you can see this year, they need more starting pitching. The asking price for Corey Hart is starting pitching as well, good starting pitching. According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle via mlbtraderumors.com, the asking price for Hart included either Johnathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner from the Giants. That's a heck of a lot for a guy who was rumored to be non-tendered at the beginning of the season. Imagine what they're asking for Fielder? Prediction: both of the top bats on the market get moved, probably to American League teams.
Chicago has so many bad contracts it's not even worth the carpal tunnel syndrome to type them. Suffice it to say there are probably 6,7, maybe 8, maybe more guys they'd like to move, but Ted Lilly is probably the most palatable for a buyer. The New York Mets or even the Yankees could be in play for Lilly. Derek Lee is also a possibility as he will be a free agent after the season, but it's hard to imagine the Cubs kicking in any salary relief in a deal. A team like the Rangers or the Angels might make sense for Lee.
All in all, this should be the most active division in the trade market over the next couple of weeks. It should be fun to watch.
Bengals 2009 Season Review-Week 10
(My main man Bernard Scott's kick return was the only touchdown in an absolute brawl of a football game. The Bengals sweep the Steelers for the first time in a god awful long time to go 7-2. They need that fast start later in the year, but you already knew that).
Bengals v Steelers II
A rematch of a game dominated by the Steelers everywhere but on the scoreboard, pits two teams atop the division at 6-2 for a king of the hill battle. Both teams are playing well, and both teams have an eye on the division title. While it’s big for both teams, this game is bigger for the Steelers. If they lose, they’re down a game and any tie breaker to the Bengals head to head. They also have two remaining dates with Baltimore, while the Bengals have only Cleveland remaining on their divisional schedule. Hopefully this game will bring back the intensity of the rivalry the way it was in ’05 and ’06 when Sports Illustrated called it the Nastiest Rivalry in Sports. We fans hate the Steelers, and the Bengals need to hate them too.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Steelers have Troy Polamalu in this game after missing the last matchup with a knee injury. He makes a huge difference to say the least. He brings the unpredictability to the defensive schemes and plays both the run and pass extremely well. He is the best player on this team, and has to be not only accounted for but dictated to. It will be key for the Bengals to maintain balance, not only in the run game, but in pass distribution to keep Polamalu a step behind the play.
Aaron Smith, the talented defensive end, is out for this game and the rest of the season. He is a big loss, especially against the run. In the first matchup I predicted the best strategy would be to run left, opposite Smith, and they did on the biggest run of the game. In this game, I’d go to the right. Kyle Cook, Bobbie Williams, and Dennis Roland will need to be physical against the replacements at LE and LB’s James Farrior and Lamaar Woodley. They will need help from the tight ends and Jeremy Johnson. Daniel Coats pancaked Farrior to spring Benson for the big touchdown last time around, and don’t think anyone’s forgotten. Brett Kiesel, Casey Hampton, and Chris Hoke are very good interior line guys, so this is still a formidable unit even without Smith.
Ced Benson is running well and the line has played well, but I’m concerned about Benson’s workload and about the injury to Evan Mathis. Mathis and Cook have been outstanding this year, and it will be up to Nate Livings to fill in at LG. This may also be the game we see Andre Smith, although they may wait until the next stretch of games against less worthy opponents. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard will need to do something in this game as they are both playmakers.
Last time around, the line did a nice job in the run game and especially in pass protection, but it was critical penalties that stalled drives. In Pittsburgh, they have to play cleanly as they have the last few weeks. This team will not be intimidated by the crowd, and that is huge. It’d be nice if they could intimidate the Steeler front seven.
Passing, it’s all about giving Carson Palmer time and getting multiple guys involved. Over the last few weeks, guys like Vern Coles and Andre Caldwell have played well as compliments to Chad Eightfive. With Chris Henry going down, it will be even more important for complimentary guys to get it done. Defenses usually key on Chad, but the Steelers will outright try to take him out of the game and make other guys beat them. Everyone, including tight ends and backs have to be ready to block and catch against a defense like this. If receivers can break one tackle against this high risk defense, you can gain chunks of yards. The Steelers will usually give you a couple opportunities downfield during a game, but that is all. Take advantage, or overthrow. Don’t hang a ball up for this secondary to ballhawk. This may be the first we see of Jerome Simpson running a 9 route or two as well. Someone will have to take Slim’s spot on the 45, so that bears watching.
Most of the time, this defense wants to force underneath passes where their backend guys can come tackle. Where they are dangerous is when they show blitz and drop guys into lanes when you don’t expect it. Almost anyone can be in coverage and you don’t have time to read it, so quick decisions are key. If the Bengals turn it over more than once, they will have no shot.
The Bengals can move the ball on any defense when they are clicking, and I think this offensive line will have it’s moments against anyone. The have to play a clean game and avoid big mistakes. This is a different defense with Troy P, but it’s still not last year’s Steeler D. Be patient and take advantage of opportunities when they come. If they can stay close through the first half, they have a shot. If there are turnovers, be ready to tackle. This defense is the best in the league at scoring after turnovers perennially, and you can’t spot them points. The Denver game was close until a Tyrone Carter pick six. That was only the latest example.
When the Steelers have the ball:
This offensive unit is playing very well for Pittsburgh, perhaps even better than they were when they took the Bengal defense apart for three quarters earlier in the year. In that game, the Steelers were able to establish both the run and the short passing game early and put the Bengals in a hole quickly. The Bengals were very lucky to immerge from that game with a win, and cannot expect to survive a game like that again.
The biggest difference this time around for Pittsburgh has to be the immergence of Rashard Mendenhall as the featured back. Fast Willie Parker has been anything but in the last two years, but Mendenhall has shown the big play speed we were accustomed to seeing from the former. He is still a bit undisciplined and impatient as a runner, but will punish in the second level. The Bengals run defense has played well this year, and it will extremely important for Domata Peko, Robert Geathers, and the SAM linebacker combination of Rashad Jeanty and Rey Maualuga to play well against a run attack that strongly favors the right side. Keith Rivers will probably miss the game, which is a bummer, but the overall depth of this unit should minimize the loss some. Still, it’s disappointing that the guy with the biggest grudge is going to miss the grudge match.
The Steelers are very effective at pulling Chris Koemoatu and Heath Miller from left to right as they did on the longest of Mendenhall’s runs against Denver. Recognizing the play and beating the pulling guard to the spot will be key to neutralizing the big play out of the run game. The Steelers seem to always pull at least one trick play out of the bag against the Bengals, so expect at least one reverse out of a formation that they have success from early. The Steelers, like most effective offenses, will show the same formation but be able to run and pass out of it if down as distance allows it.
The Bengals did a pretty decent job last meeting of keeping the Steelers in longer 3rd down situations once they settled in to the game, but still allowed far too many conversions. The Steelers will kill you in shorter 3rd down distances because it plays to the strength of their quick pass game. Out of either tight bunches or spread formations, Ben Roethlisberger is very good at seeing the favorable matchup and getting the ball out before pressure comes.
Pressure is key to beating the Steelers, but you must be careful to maintain gaps as Big Ben is maybe the best in the league at slipping out of sure sacks and making big plays. The Steelers will also employ the no huddle offense, which is generally when they are most effective at picking up chunks of yardage quickly. They like to save it for later in the games and after the defense has forced a three and out to really wear out a defense. The Steelers used it to perfection in the second half of the Broncos game and turned a tight game into a blowout quickly. Here, the Bengal offense has to help out it’s defensive mates.
Hopefully a healthier Jonathan Joseph and the return of Roy Williams will help this secondary cover better than in the previous matchups. The Steeler offensive line has given up 22 sacks, and I believe the majority of those are coverage sacks where Ben holds the ball too long. Chris Crocker is back at safety as well, and Morgan Trent has played a decent nickel. Overall, this may be the best secondary the Steelers have faced. Santonio Holmes in particular had a tough game against the Bengals last time and will be looking to rebound. Mike Wallace has really immerged as a deep threat and has as much as anyone contributed to the effectiveness of Hines Ward in short to intermediate routes. Ward is still the go to guy in the redzone.
The key to the game will be how physical the defense, and especially the front seven, can be against this offensive unit. The Oline for Pittsburgh is big and tough, and the defense can’t get pushed around. If they can win on first down and force longer 3rd downs, they have a shot. Jam the receivers and make them pay for short catches. Hit them, hit them, hit them.
Teams:
Last game, not only did Andre Caldwell catch 50 yards worth of passes and score the winning touchdown, he had 100 yards of returns. Both he and Quan Cosby need to contribute Sunday, if for nothing else than field position. Stephan Logan is dangerous, and will probably get at least one good return in this game. Both field goal kickers are good, but Heinz field is a tough place to kick. Jeff Reed has the edge because of experience. This game could be won or lost by good punting, and both teams have good ones.
Prediction:
It’s hard to think about how lopsided three quarters of the last game was and how well the Steelers have played in beating teams like Minnesota and Denver since the last loss to the Bengals. They are not invincible, and are not even as good defensively as they’ve been in the past. But this offense is scary right now, and I have to think they’ll make a couple more plays and a couple less mistakes than the Bengals and win a lower scoring, ugly game. Eventually the Bengals defense will wear out. There’s no shame in a loss to a team that looks every bit like a defending Superbowl Champion in their building.
I’m not asking for a win for the Bengals to make a statement here, no matter what you hear from the national talking heads. I’m not looking for a consolation prize if they don’t. What I’m looking for is a swagger and an attitude that they belong in the top tier of teams in this league. Come out and hit Pittsburgh, and keep hitting them for 60 minutes or longer if need be. Take the fight to the bully and win, lose or draw, take a chunk out of their ear to let them know you’re not messing around anymore. No matter what the scoreboard says, kick some ass.
Bengals v Steelers II
A rematch of a game dominated by the Steelers everywhere but on the scoreboard, pits two teams atop the division at 6-2 for a king of the hill battle. Both teams are playing well, and both teams have an eye on the division title. While it’s big for both teams, this game is bigger for the Steelers. If they lose, they’re down a game and any tie breaker to the Bengals head to head. They also have two remaining dates with Baltimore, while the Bengals have only Cleveland remaining on their divisional schedule. Hopefully this game will bring back the intensity of the rivalry the way it was in ’05 and ’06 when Sports Illustrated called it the Nastiest Rivalry in Sports. We fans hate the Steelers, and the Bengals need to hate them too.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Steelers have Troy Polamalu in this game after missing the last matchup with a knee injury. He makes a huge difference to say the least. He brings the unpredictability to the defensive schemes and plays both the run and pass extremely well. He is the best player on this team, and has to be not only accounted for but dictated to. It will be key for the Bengals to maintain balance, not only in the run game, but in pass distribution to keep Polamalu a step behind the play.
Aaron Smith, the talented defensive end, is out for this game and the rest of the season. He is a big loss, especially against the run. In the first matchup I predicted the best strategy would be to run left, opposite Smith, and they did on the biggest run of the game. In this game, I’d go to the right. Kyle Cook, Bobbie Williams, and Dennis Roland will need to be physical against the replacements at LE and LB’s James Farrior and Lamaar Woodley. They will need help from the tight ends and Jeremy Johnson. Daniel Coats pancaked Farrior to spring Benson for the big touchdown last time around, and don’t think anyone’s forgotten. Brett Kiesel, Casey Hampton, and Chris Hoke are very good interior line guys, so this is still a formidable unit even without Smith.
Ced Benson is running well and the line has played well, but I’m concerned about Benson’s workload and about the injury to Evan Mathis. Mathis and Cook have been outstanding this year, and it will be up to Nate Livings to fill in at LG. This may also be the game we see Andre Smith, although they may wait until the next stretch of games against less worthy opponents. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard will need to do something in this game as they are both playmakers.
Last time around, the line did a nice job in the run game and especially in pass protection, but it was critical penalties that stalled drives. In Pittsburgh, they have to play cleanly as they have the last few weeks. This team will not be intimidated by the crowd, and that is huge. It’d be nice if they could intimidate the Steeler front seven.
Passing, it’s all about giving Carson Palmer time and getting multiple guys involved. Over the last few weeks, guys like Vern Coles and Andre Caldwell have played well as compliments to Chad Eightfive. With Chris Henry going down, it will be even more important for complimentary guys to get it done. Defenses usually key on Chad, but the Steelers will outright try to take him out of the game and make other guys beat them. Everyone, including tight ends and backs have to be ready to block and catch against a defense like this. If receivers can break one tackle against this high risk defense, you can gain chunks of yards. The Steelers will usually give you a couple opportunities downfield during a game, but that is all. Take advantage, or overthrow. Don’t hang a ball up for this secondary to ballhawk. This may be the first we see of Jerome Simpson running a 9 route or two as well. Someone will have to take Slim’s spot on the 45, so that bears watching.
Most of the time, this defense wants to force underneath passes where their backend guys can come tackle. Where they are dangerous is when they show blitz and drop guys into lanes when you don’t expect it. Almost anyone can be in coverage and you don’t have time to read it, so quick decisions are key. If the Bengals turn it over more than once, they will have no shot.
The Bengals can move the ball on any defense when they are clicking, and I think this offensive line will have it’s moments against anyone. The have to play a clean game and avoid big mistakes. This is a different defense with Troy P, but it’s still not last year’s Steeler D. Be patient and take advantage of opportunities when they come. If they can stay close through the first half, they have a shot. If there are turnovers, be ready to tackle. This defense is the best in the league at scoring after turnovers perennially, and you can’t spot them points. The Denver game was close until a Tyrone Carter pick six. That was only the latest example.
When the Steelers have the ball:
This offensive unit is playing very well for Pittsburgh, perhaps even better than they were when they took the Bengal defense apart for three quarters earlier in the year. In that game, the Steelers were able to establish both the run and the short passing game early and put the Bengals in a hole quickly. The Bengals were very lucky to immerge from that game with a win, and cannot expect to survive a game like that again.
The biggest difference this time around for Pittsburgh has to be the immergence of Rashard Mendenhall as the featured back. Fast Willie Parker has been anything but in the last two years, but Mendenhall has shown the big play speed we were accustomed to seeing from the former. He is still a bit undisciplined and impatient as a runner, but will punish in the second level. The Bengals run defense has played well this year, and it will extremely important for Domata Peko, Robert Geathers, and the SAM linebacker combination of Rashad Jeanty and Rey Maualuga to play well against a run attack that strongly favors the right side. Keith Rivers will probably miss the game, which is a bummer, but the overall depth of this unit should minimize the loss some. Still, it’s disappointing that the guy with the biggest grudge is going to miss the grudge match.
The Steelers are very effective at pulling Chris Koemoatu and Heath Miller from left to right as they did on the longest of Mendenhall’s runs against Denver. Recognizing the play and beating the pulling guard to the spot will be key to neutralizing the big play out of the run game. The Steelers seem to always pull at least one trick play out of the bag against the Bengals, so expect at least one reverse out of a formation that they have success from early. The Steelers, like most effective offenses, will show the same formation but be able to run and pass out of it if down as distance allows it.
The Bengals did a pretty decent job last meeting of keeping the Steelers in longer 3rd down situations once they settled in to the game, but still allowed far too many conversions. The Steelers will kill you in shorter 3rd down distances because it plays to the strength of their quick pass game. Out of either tight bunches or spread formations, Ben Roethlisberger is very good at seeing the favorable matchup and getting the ball out before pressure comes.
Pressure is key to beating the Steelers, but you must be careful to maintain gaps as Big Ben is maybe the best in the league at slipping out of sure sacks and making big plays. The Steelers will also employ the no huddle offense, which is generally when they are most effective at picking up chunks of yardage quickly. They like to save it for later in the games and after the defense has forced a three and out to really wear out a defense. The Steelers used it to perfection in the second half of the Broncos game and turned a tight game into a blowout quickly. Here, the Bengal offense has to help out it’s defensive mates.
Hopefully a healthier Jonathan Joseph and the return of Roy Williams will help this secondary cover better than in the previous matchups. The Steeler offensive line has given up 22 sacks, and I believe the majority of those are coverage sacks where Ben holds the ball too long. Chris Crocker is back at safety as well, and Morgan Trent has played a decent nickel. Overall, this may be the best secondary the Steelers have faced. Santonio Holmes in particular had a tough game against the Bengals last time and will be looking to rebound. Mike Wallace has really immerged as a deep threat and has as much as anyone contributed to the effectiveness of Hines Ward in short to intermediate routes. Ward is still the go to guy in the redzone.
The key to the game will be how physical the defense, and especially the front seven, can be against this offensive unit. The Oline for Pittsburgh is big and tough, and the defense can’t get pushed around. If they can win on first down and force longer 3rd downs, they have a shot. Jam the receivers and make them pay for short catches. Hit them, hit them, hit them.
Teams:
Last game, not only did Andre Caldwell catch 50 yards worth of passes and score the winning touchdown, he had 100 yards of returns. Both he and Quan Cosby need to contribute Sunday, if for nothing else than field position. Stephan Logan is dangerous, and will probably get at least one good return in this game. Both field goal kickers are good, but Heinz field is a tough place to kick. Jeff Reed has the edge because of experience. This game could be won or lost by good punting, and both teams have good ones.
Prediction:
It’s hard to think about how lopsided three quarters of the last game was and how well the Steelers have played in beating teams like Minnesota and Denver since the last loss to the Bengals. They are not invincible, and are not even as good defensively as they’ve been in the past. But this offense is scary right now, and I have to think they’ll make a couple more plays and a couple less mistakes than the Bengals and win a lower scoring, ugly game. Eventually the Bengals defense will wear out. There’s no shame in a loss to a team that looks every bit like a defending Superbowl Champion in their building.
I’m not asking for a win for the Bengals to make a statement here, no matter what you hear from the national talking heads. I’m not looking for a consolation prize if they don’t. What I’m looking for is a swagger and an attitude that they belong in the top tier of teams in this league. Come out and hit Pittsburgh, and keep hitting them for 60 minutes or longer if need be. Take the fight to the bully and win, lose or draw, take a chunk out of their ear to let them know you’re not messing around anymore. No matter what the scoreboard says, kick some ass.
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