Bengals v. Ravens-Week Two

Let me say this about game 1, it's game 1....of 16. And it's over. Enough said.

Seriously, not to minimize the beat down the Bengals took at the hands of a much better prepared New England team, but it has little bearing on this weeks game. There were good and bad things about the game, but I think it's much more valuable to look at the two games against Baltimore last year than it is to look at either the Pats game or the Jets-Ravens game. Football is about matchups week to week. Momentum only takes you to the kickoff. And fortunately for Cincinnati, they've matched up well against Baltimore with #9 at the helm. To the tune of 8-3 since Carson Palmer took over as the starting QB.

Both teams have improved since last season, so this should be a very entertaining game. And it's important because it's the first divisional game and the Bengals could be down 2 games to Baltimore right out of the gate with a loss.

When Baltimore has the ball-
Baltimore has to establish the run better than they did last year vs. the Bengals, and better than they did last week against the Jets. The Ravens ran it 17 and 18 times last year for 55 and 82 yards respectively. Yes, the Ravens added receivers and they should be better passing than last season, but this offense goes through Ray Rice and the running game first and foremost.

In both games last season, the Bengals dominated the line of scrimmage against the Ravens. Baltimore can't get bullied like that again this year. The Ravens were not able to move the Jets at all, but the Pats were able to get some runs on the Bengals. With a mix of power runs, draws and screens, they have to get Rice 25 touches. If they can't keep the defense honest, they will not be able to exploit coverage the way the Pats did.

So the Ravens have better receivers, huh? Well the Bengals have better coverage guys than last year too. They also have better coverage guys, as a unit, then the Jets do. The Ravens exploited one on one coverage by an overrated Antonio Cromartie and a rookie in Kyle Wilson. Have fun with Jonathan Joseph and Adam Jones on the outside and Leon Hall and Chris Crocker in the middle of the field. It won't be so easy to get big plays. Expect the Bengals to take the same approach as they did against New England, and make the offense earn points with methodical drives. The weakness of the Bengals defense is in the underneath coverage of the linebackers and run support safety. If you can get Todd Heap (who's nicked up already), TJ and Ray Rice moving around in that first level, the matchup favors the offense. Dhani Jones cannot cover, and I'm tired of saying it every week. If Flacco sees #57 chasing his guy, he should throw it there every time. But outside that, this is a much more difficult secondary to throw on.

The pass rush is a different story. While last year they outsacked the Ravens 6-2, the Bengals struggle to get consistent pressure. Tom Brady carved them up, and Flacco can do the same if given a half hour to throw. The left side of the Ravens line is very solid, but I do think the right side can be exploited. Plan on seeing a lot of Geno Atkins at DT. John Fanene is questionable with a lingering hamstring injury, so we may even see rookie Carlos Dunlap this week. No matter who is in, the pressure has to be better, and when they do blitz, guys need to know their coverage assignments. Blown coverages lead to big plays. You also can't lose contain with Flacco, who is an underrated runner. Remember his pro debut in 2008? Marvin Lewis does.

When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals are going to want to follow the blueprint from last year and run it right at this run stuffing defense. Amazingly, the Bengals dominated this vaunted front seven last year to the tune of 146 and 142 rushing yards in both games. They bullied the bullies all season long, and are going to look to take out some frustrations from the Pats game on this front. If the Ravens can't stop the run, they're dead meat because this pass offense is far more potent than it was last year. Especially in the red zone, this Bengals offense is diverse and talented at every spot. I know I can't wait for the Raven defenders to meet Jermaine Gresham. They are not going to like have to defend this guy twice a year.

Both Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott had flashes in the Pats game, and the Bengals should have Brian Leonard back for this game. Benson did have the fumble that led to a Pats score, and that can't happen. Chad also had two fumbles last year vs. the Ravens, trying to do too much in the open field, and that can't happen either. If the Bengals outrush the Ravens, they will win. The fact that they can now throw effectively out of run formations makes them even more of a threat.

Did you know Ed Reed is out for this game? Yeah, that's a pretty big deal. A pick six and two forced fumbles against the Bengals last year, and a general thorn in the side of any offense. He, like Troy Polamalu, makes a good defense great. The Ravens are thin at corner as it is, and the matchup of Bengals skill guys vs. Ravens secondary is big time in favor of the Bengals. The best way to negate the pass rush, besides running it well, is to send a lot of skilled guys out in patterns that consistently beat single coverage. Jordan Shipley and Gresham showed some serious potential last week at attacking the middle of a defense. Gresham especially, needs to continue to learn the pro game, and avoid mistakes like the pick six last week. I think he will, and I believe he's going to be the top pass catching tight end in this division by mid-season. Mark it down. The pass offense can light you up from short, medium, or long range if #9 is given time. For anyone still doubting Carson Palmer, I'm here to tell you, he's back. All the way back and then some. He had 2 bad throws out of 50 attempts against a Bill Belichick defense, including some unreal throws. No worries at all about him.

The biggest concern I have about this team's offense is consistent pass protection, especially from the right side. Dennis Roland is a liability in pass coverage and Andre Smith can't get on the field is passing situations. Bobbie Williams is not good enough to overcome the issues outside. The Ravens only managed 1 sack in each game last year, and will have to do better. Haloti Ngata will find that both Nate Livings and Evan Mathis are better than Jets LG Matt Slausson, who he beat like a drum Monday night. Terrell Suggs was MIA all of last year, and the next best pass rusher, Jarrett Johnson, may not go with a bad back. Sergio Kindle is still out after his unfortunate sleep walking accident, so this team is paper thin at OLB/rush DE. If they don't stop the run and/or pressure Palmer, the only hope is that the Bengals implode with penalties and mistakes. Not totally out of the realm of possibility.

The Bengals had one penalty against the Pats. Remarkable. The Jets are still getting penalties thrown on them. That was insane. The Ravens had more penalties for more yards than the Bengals in both games last year, including some devastating late defensive penalties. I hate to say it, but penalties could play a big role again this year.

Run game, turnovers, big plays, third downs and penalties are the keys. Standard stuff. The Bengals had a clear advantage in all these last year and it's why they pretty much dominated the Ravens twice.

Special teams-
Hopefully the coverage teams of the Bengals learned from the two bad returns, one of which was a TD of course, and get their act together this week. (They did improve after the TD). The great returns of the preseason didn't translate to week 1, and coach Harbaugh is a special teams guy, so we'll see if they can do anything more this week. I do predict we'll finally see the punt return team, which is a good thing. Speaking of punt returns, Tom Zibbycowski (spelling phonetically for fun) really stunk it up last week and will have a very short leash this week. Chris Carr is solid as the kick return guy.

The Nuge made his presence felt with a 50 yarder vs. New England, and it was amazing to see a good snap, hold, and kick from that distance. That's a real weapon. The were some nice punts from Huber too, and field position is always important in a game like this. For Baltimore, former Cowboy Billy Cundiff beat out hated Shayne Graham as the Ravens kicker. Cundiff is okay, but I'll take the Nuge.

Prediction-
Both games were low scoring last year, with the Bengals winning 17-14 (with the Baltimore scores coming on a pick six and a weird broken tackle by Ray Rice where Leon Hall didn't finish the play) and 17-7. The Ravens really struggled to score against this defense, and I do expect a much better Bengal effort this week. Both offenses are better than last year, but I favor the Bengals offense and special teams. I'll say 23-20 Bengals. The score could be off, but I'll be shocked if the Bengals lose and go down 0-2. Shocked. I'd honestly be less shocked if the Bengals blew them out than if they lose. Seriously. Okay, I'm out of homer Kool-Aid...gotta mix up some more. Hey Kool-Aid....(cue sound of Fat Andre Smith breaking through my wall wearing no shirt)