Nothing like starting the season out with a bang. The Bengals travel to Foxboro Sunday and match up with a Tom Brady led Patriots team that's beaten them the last two times they've played in the regular season. I have flashbacks of the last one in Cincy, when Justin Smith was mic'ed up saying that rushing Brady was like a 9-7 drill. That game, the Pats had their way running and throwing and the Bengals didn't get a hand on Brady. He's too good for that, so it's no surprise that getting some kind of pressure on Tom Terrific is the key to this game.
When the Pats have the ball-
We all know about Tom Brady. He's one of the top QB's in league, one of the top's in the history of the league. Aaron Rodgers said earlier this offseason that TB is THE best QB in the pocket, period. High praise from another elite QB, especially with guys like Manning and Brees to compare to. So Brady's good, so good that the Pats can beat with him throwing 25 times or 52 times. If you don't get in his face, and don't knock him around, you have next to no chance to beat this team. The Pats made the playoffs last year in spite of a lousy defense because of Brady.
Beyond Brady, the next names you automatically think of on this offense are Moss and Welker. Randy Moss is still one of the elite receivers in the NFL, and is perhaps the scariest deep threat in the game. Leon Hall, in base defense, will be on the outside and has struggled against bigger receivers (see Johnson, Andre and Calvin and Jackson, Vincent), and will certainly be the target for Moss and Brady. Safety help is a must, which one of the main reasons Welker has had what seems like 10,000 catches over the middle the last few years. All signs point to Welker being healthy after blowing out his ACL last season, and his matchup with Bengal defenders in the middle of the field is a concern. The Bengals, especially in base defense with D. Jones in the middle, have given up a lot of catches and yards in the center of the field the last two years. Brett Favre and the Vikings basically ate them up last year with backs and tight ends, and I've seen every team in the preseason go after the same area. (Did you see the Roscoe Parrish TD catch right in front of Dhani?). I love D. Jones but he doesn't have any speed, and teams know it.
Julian Edelman did a nice job filling in for the injured Welker last year, but has a foot injury of his own. He did practice Friday, so he may contribute as well, but the other receivers don't worry me. One interesting Bengal note is that starting RCB Leon Hall slides to the slot in nickel coverage, with Adam Jones moving to the outside. Not only is this a huge upgrade over Morgan Trent in the slot, it puts Jones in his more natural outside position. The Cowboys tried to use Jones in the slot a couple of years ago, and he was terrible. The Bengals coaching staff are putting guys in the best position to be successful.
The Pats got nothing out of the tight end position last year, so this year the entire unit is different. In are veteren Alge Crumpler, and rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Crumpler can't run anymore, but is a good run blocker and could still be a force in redzone. The rookies are both impressive, especially Gronkowski who is an all around beast. Expect plenty of two tight end sets, where the Pats are just as likely to throw as run. The linebackers and safety not on Moss' side will have to play well in coverage and guys have to come up to help tackle once the guys make the catch.
Bill Belichick is notorious for his running back by committee attitude, and this season is no different. Maroney, Taylor and Morris are the lead power backs, with Kevin Faulk returning as the pass catcher. None of the three lead backs is special, but they can all be effective if the offensive line is doing their part. Taylor is the only one that can really make a tackler miss, the others are more likely to try to run through a tackle as run around it. The Pats will go away from the run early if it isn't working, perhaps sooner than other teams will. Faulk is really an underrated player. With Moss, Welker and the rest attracting the attention of the defense, Faulk is often left one on one with a LB. His ability to extend drives was one of the most important reasons the Pats set all those offensive records in 2007.
The offensive line is not the 2007 Patriots offensive line however. Not only are they three years older (that's 21 in NFL years), but their best lineman LG Logan Mankins is holding out and will not play. RT Sebastian Vollmer had basically taken the LT position from Matt Light last season, and is the best active OLineman, but has switched to the right side because of Mankins' holdout and injury to Nick Kaczur. LT Matt Light, RG Stephen Neal and C Dan Koppen return but are no longer elite players, especially Light who has really struggled against speed rushers the last two years. LG Dan Connolly started three games last year and will be the least experienced of the group. I really see Antwan Odom and the other pass rushers on the defensive right as a key to this game. If they can beat Light, the Pats will have to leave a back or tight end in to help on that side, and that's one less receiver to worry about. The depth of the Bengals defense will have to be their best asset in this game, as they should be able to send wave after wave of fresh guys at this weakened line. If that happens, they have a very good chance to force Brady into turnovers. Michael Johnson and Rey Maualuga, I hope you guys wreak havoc Sunday, we'll need it. Unfortunately, preseason star DT Geno Atkins is nicked up and I don't know if he's going to go. He is a true pass rushing DT, and it's all hands on deck against Brady.
When the Bengals have the ball-
This isn't the Patriot Dynastic Defense of the Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, in fact, it isn't even close. The only hold over from those teams are NT Vince Wilfork and ROLB Tully Banta-Cain. Both of these guys are still good players (Banta-Cain led the team with 10 sacks), but outside of RMLB Jerod Mayo and FS Brandon Merriweather, this team is either lacking in talent or very young at the other spots. CB Leigh Bodden, the best cover guy on the team, is done for the year, so the secondary features three starters with one year or less of experience including rookie CB Devin McCourty. Talented, but inexperienced, and the Bengals must take advantage with the veteran receivers they have.
Carson Palmer is coming into his 8th season in the NFL, and has played against elite defenses with multiple schemes and looks twice each season in the division (except for the injury marred 2008 season), so whatever Bill Belichick game plans shouldn't be totally foreign. Besides, you can't game plan to overcome a lack of talent. If the Bengals don't shoot themselves in the foot, as they are more than prone to do, they should be able to light up this defense. The Pats have struggled to provide a consistent pass rush since they let go of Vrabel, so this sets up pretty well for Cincy.
Ceddy Ced Benson will again be a focal point of the offensive, and defensive, gameplanning. In the preseason, the Pats used both Wilfork and Gerard Warren (taking over for incumbent Ty Warren who's done for the year) at the NT. Surprisingly, teams were able to run at the right side effectively with either guy at the LDE position. With road graters Bobbie Williams, Dennis Roland, and Andre Smith on that side of the OLine, the Bengals should attack that side with impunity. Rookie LMLB Brandon Spikes will have to play very well to slow down the Bengals running attack. I assume slowing the run game has been Belichick's obsession all offseason, and he has the track record of taking away what you do best, so let's assume they can limit the run game.
The passing game of the Bengals should be dynamic unless they continue to stop themselves with penalties and miscues. Veteran receivers Chad (Johnson) and TO should be able to get open against Darius Butler and the young secondary of the Pats. There will be opportunities, and guys just have to make plays. TE Jermaine Gresham should be able to use his speed against slower Patriots LB's, especially Spikes if he is asked to cover. JG is a matchup problem for the safeties as well and should have a nice pro debut. Andre Caldwell is probably out with a groin injury, so Jordan Shipley will be making his first NFL start as well and will have a chance to shine right out of the gate. Bernard Scott will probably be the third down back with Brian Leonard out, and I love BScott however you get him the ball. He's good for at least one dynamic play a game. I love the matchup of the Bengals passing game vs. the Pats. Just avoid the stupid penalties.
The offensive line for the Bengals returns intact for 2010, with the only disappointment that Andre Smith has not established himself as the starter at RT. Last season, little was expected for this unit, but 2010 is different. Once again, this should be a physical run blocking unit, but I am concerned about the pass blocking of the right side. Dennis Roland especially was exposed at the end of 2009 and it's important that the pass blocking improve to give this offense the chance to put up big passing numbers. The Pats are not a good pass rushing team, but what rush they get comes from the offensive left. Andrew Whitworth is establishing himself as a Pro-Bowl caliber LT and I think he'll be up to stopping the likes of Tully Banta-Cain. The center of the line needs to take a page from the Saints-Vikings game on Thursday and push big Wilfork and Gerard Warren side to side, opening up cut back lanes. The implementation of a power zone blocking scheme and the statistical improvement of the Bengal run game in 2009 are no coincidence. Again, this is a favorable matchup for the Bengal offense. If they don't stop themselves.
Special teams-
The Bengals have the edge in the return and coverage games, and it's been a long time since they've looked this good on returns. Adam Jones especially looked fantastic in the preseason, and could be a big difference maker in this one.
The kicking game advantage goes to the Pats. Until I see it, I won't be able to shake the visions of last year's horrendous kicking.
Prediction-
I'd love to say the Bengals are going to win this game, especially considering how weak this Pats defense is, but I can't. I haven't seen a consistent enough pass rush out of this team, and I haven't seen them play a clean enough game offensively over the last year and change to state confidently that the Bengals will win. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Tom Brady throwing a late touchdown to beat the Bengals 27-23. Better luck next week hosting the Ravens.
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