With the kickoff of the 2010 NCAA football season a couple of weeks out, I thought it would be a good time to take look at the field of contenders for this year's BCS title. Before we go too far, we must acknowledge that every team in contention this year is flawed, even #1 Alabama. For the purposes of this discussion, I thought the best way to look at the contenders was by breaking down the conferences most likely to be represented in the title game, and not necessarily by straight ranking. (The rankings I refer to are the from the preseason coaches poll).
Since the inception of the BCS, the SEC is certainly the cream of the conference crop. 6-0 in BCS Championship games warrants starting the conversation here. When talking SEC and BCS Championships, we must make two assumptions: The SEC champion WILL be represented so long as they have no more than two loses, and there will be ONLY one SEC team represented. With Alabama ranked #1 and Florida ranked #3, this definitely works in Ohio State's favor.
As it sets up, the BCS Championship really SHOULD be Ohio State vs. the SEC Champ. Yes, I said it, jinxes be damned. This season should be "national championship or bust" for the Bucks, and the whole program has be hoping for a shot at redemption after national title game loses to Florida and LSU. Be it Alabama or Florida, this should be the title match-up unless the Bucks trip up. More on that in a bit....
SEC
So the SEC once again features two of the highest ranked teams in the country in what shapes up to be a very top heavy conference. Florida should dominate a weak East Division, where Georgia could surprise on the strength of a dominant O-Line, but is breaking in a new D coordinator, and Tennessee is in transition with their third coach in as many seasons. Some say if Steve Spurrier is ever going to make a run at South Carolina, this is the year, but any real challenge to Florida would be a surprise. Alabama too, should have a relatively easy time in the West division. LSU certainly has talent, including top NFL prospect CB Patrick Peterson, but would have to have a huge leap in production from their offensive line and QB Jordan Jefferson to get Les Miles off the hot seat. Arkansas has a potentially lethal offense with ex-Michigan QB Ryan Mallett, but plays exactly zero defense. Any real threat from Auburn or Ole Miss would be a surprise. Unlike 2009, the Gators and Tide hook up in the regular season Oct. 2nd, in what certainly has the look of an SEC Championship preview. If that were to happen, I find it hard to believe that Nick Saban is going to out-coach Urban Meyer three straight times (including the 2009 SEC Championship). Hold a gun to my head, and I'll pick the Gators to win the rematch.
#1 Alabama certainly deserves the top preseason ranking. Returning 8 offensive starters, including QB Greg McElroy and arguably the best RB and WR in the country in Mark Ingram and Julio Jones, the offense should be formidable once again. And don't forget about RB Trent Richardson, who some feel might be better even than Ingram. The Center and Left side of the Offensive Line return to a team that is power run first and pass second. While McElroy will probably never be considered a premier passer, he did enough when he had to last year to win the title. I believe the passing game will miss underrated TE Colin Peek, who came to be a reliable target for McElroy last season. Limiting the run, and making Bama beat you with the pass, will still be the game plan against them. That's easier said than done.
Defensively, this team only returns 3 starters, MLB Dont'a Hightower, DE Marcel Dareus, and SS Mark Barron. The are however, very talented and deep, if lacking in starting experience. This group reminds me some of the unheralded Bama defense from two years ago, that was "too young" to have them on the doorstep of a national title. If there is a unit to be somewhat concerned about it is the secondary, where only Barron returns as a starter. But Saban is a premier recruiter, so once this team gets a few games into the season, I expect them to once again be stout.
If Alabama has one key weakness, it may be on special teams where both the place kicker and punter look to be freshmen. Replacing Javier Arenas as the primary return man won't be easy either.
The schedule makers also didn't do Bama any favors. In addition to a ranked Penn State and Florida on the early schedule, the final six opponents will be coming off a bye to face Bama. That includes a night game at LSU. Even without that added degree of difficulty, it's unlikely that Alabama would be able to go through two straight seasons undefeated in conference.
#3 Florida enters the first year of the post-Tebow era with lots of talent and lots of questions. Will the 6 returning offensive starters, including new starting QB John Brantley, be able to live in the shadow of #15? Or will he, and the whole program for that matter, feel a sense of freedom now that such a huge presence is gone? One thing is for sure, Brantley is a premier passing prospect whose been in the system a long time, including playing time in place of an injured Tebow in '09, and with him the Gators should have a more effective pass attack in 2010. The Offensive Line, led by All-American Mike Pouncey and road grating RT Marcus Gilbert, should be one of the best in country and is exactly what you'd hope for to help out a new QB. It also helps to have several potentially dynamic receivers in Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore, and converted running back Chris Rainey. (Thompson reportedly ran a 4.22/40 this spring. Apparently the same guy that timed Terrelle Pryor traveled to Gainesville).
The bigger question for their offense is will they be able to run it. Tebow led the team in rushing last season, and no one broke the 1,000 yard mark in rushing or receiving. A commitment to the running of speed back Jeff Demps and power back Emmanuel Moody will be key to keeping defenses off balance and exploiting play action passing opportunities. Tebow will be missed for his leadership, and especially his short yardage running ability. Converted quarterback and now TE Jordan Reed may be used in Wildcat packages, and Brantley will run some as well, but this is clearly going to be a different playbook than the last four seasons.
The defense returns 6 starters led by FS Will Hill, CB Janoris Jenkins, and DE Justin Trattou who played half of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. DT Jaye Howard is a big time NFL prospect, and hard hitting Redshirt Freshman Jelani Jenkins appears to be the new MLB. The secondary should be a strength, even after the departure of Joe Haden, with three returning starters including it's leader, Senior SS Ahmad Black. Much like Alabama, what this unit lacks in starting experience, it makes up for in talent. This unit will have a new coordinator, who will reportedly mix up 3 and 4 man fronts. It may take a few weeks, but this unit will be very good.
Special teams should be in a little bit better position than Alabama, with the kicking game more settled.
The schedule is also more favorable than Alabama's. Not only do they not have the ridiculous bye week issues, outside back to back October weeks at Alabama, and against LSU, the Gator's schedule looks pretty easy. Win or lose on October 2nd, I fully expect a rematch in Atlanta. This isn't Florida rebuilding, this is spackle and some paint. This team is right back in the hunt for another conference and national title.
Big Ten (Expanded write up beyond title contenders for obvious reasons)
Outside the SEC Champ, if Ohio State isn't the next school on the BCS and network's list, they're in the top 3 (okay 4, with Texas and Notre Dame). Ohio State has been in three title games, and they have the clearest road this season. With a schedule featuring an out of conference game against #13 Miami and games against three conference opponents currently in the preseason top 15 (Iowa #10, Wisconsin #12, and Penn State #14), if OSU is undefeated they are absolutely in. Even with one loss, depending on who it's against and when, the Buckeyes would still be in serious contention for a title game berth. The conference had a very successful bowl season to end 2009, and looks to have a couple of teams capable of ending as highly in the standings as they are starting. If the Bucks do have a loss, it will be imperative that the other ranked Big Ten teams do well to prop up the overall quality of the schedule.
#2 Ohio State is the daddy of this conference, winner of 5 straight titles, and should be favored in every game they play. I won't go into a detailed breakdown of the Bucks here, but suffice it to say that the play of Terrelle Pryor and his offensive line will be the key to this team's success. The defense will be stout again behind Cam Heyward and a stud LB corps, but does have some questions in the secondary. This team is certainly talented enough to challenge anyone for the national title.
The schedule is discussed above.
#12 Wisconsin is my personal pick to finish second in the conference, returning 16 total starters and 10 on offense. QB Scott Tolzien returns, as does the best RB in the conference in John Clay. WR Nick Toon returns, as does all five O-line starters including an all-conference left side featuring T Gabe Carimi and G John Moffit. The defense returns 6 starters, including 3 of the starting 4 secondary spots. All-conference SS Jay Valai leads that unit. The defensive front will have 3 new starters, but should be solid. The Badgers have the best power running game in the conference, and Clay will present a stiff test to the Buckeyes streak of not allowing a 100 rusher. Especially in Madison, at night. Wisky's schedule is pretty favorable, with the toughest games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and at Iowa in October. I think the Badgers have the best shot to upset the Buckeyes, but it will come down to how well Tolzien plays. Really, that's the story of their season. Wisconsin led the Big Ten is scoring and total offense in 2009, but could only muster 23 combined points against OSU and Iowa. If they are going to end a Top-10 team, the running and pass game will have to be more consistent.
#10 Iowa has some serious NFL talent returning on defense, a unit which finished 3rd in the nation in pass defense a year ago. 8 starters return on that side of the ball including All-Americans DE Adrian Clayborn and SS Tyler Sash, and All-Conference FS Brett Greenwood. All four starting D-linemen return, but the linebacking corps will have to replace MLB Pat Angerer and OLB AJ Edds. Also gone was the team's best cover corner in Anthony Spievey, now also playing in the NFL. This unit should be very, very good again, but may not be quite as dominant as they were in '09. Offensively, 6 starters return including QB Ricky Stanzi and nearly the entire compliment of skill position players. All-Conference WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and running mate Marvin McNutt return, as well as talented RB's Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. The O-line is a question however. 3 new starters, including the Tackle position vacated by All-American Bryan Bulaga, will have to do better than the unit that cleared the way for a run game that ranked next to last in the Big Ten in 2009. The schedule is favorable to Iowa with all of Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State at home, but if Iowa can't run, I don't believe Stanzi is good enough to beat good teams. Iowa may finish in the top 15, but I think they're overrated at #10.
#14 Penn State is a team I'm not sure I have any kind of handle on. I can't see a team that lost it's QB and that much defensive talent, and has this many other quality teams in conference is ranked higher than #20 when it's all said and done, even with RB Evan Royster.
Big 12
If Ohio State does slip up this season, the next best choice for the BCS will come from the Big 12. This is again a top heavy conference with #4 Texas, #8 Oklahoma, and #9 Nebraska dominating. It seems very strange to me that Texas would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma considering the Big 12 coaches voted OU the favorite in the conference, and OU will be favored in every game they play this season including against Texas. For the purposes of this national title discussion, I'm not even going to worry about Nebraska because, like Iowa, their below average offense cannot carry them to an undefeated season. If Ohio State loses at least once, even a one loss Texas or OU would still have a shot. Nebraska isn't in that category.
#8 Oklahoma returns 9 starters on offense, including QB Landry Jones and a full contingent of skill position players led by WR Ryan Broyles and electric RB Demarco Murray. The biggest question mark for the Sooner offense will be the play of an Offensive Line that struggled last season WITH All-American Trent Williams. Much like Jones, the OLine should be more experienced this year and like Bob Stoops, I expect better things this season. One sleeper offensive player to watch is WR Kenny Stills, who with Broyles gives the Sooners a potent pass attack even with the loss of Jermaine Gresham.
The defense only returns 5 starters, but three are returning All-Conference stars DE Jeremy Beal, WLB Travis Lewis, and FS Quinton Carter. Defensive Tackle and Corner are questions going into the season, with the departure of Gerald McCoy and the youth in the back end. Much like Texas, several key contributors on this side of the ball will be young guys getting their turn. The talent should be there for this to be one of the better units in the conference, just probably not as good as the Horns.
The Sooners should be very strong in all phases of special teams.
OU should be favored in every game they play, with Texas being the toughest on the regular schedule. The Sooners will have a home date with Florida State and a road game at Cincinnati, but there's a decent possibility this team is undefeated going into a potential Big 12 Conference title game.
#4 Texas is almost lucky that Garrett Gilbert into last season's title game, at least when it comes to 2010. Like Florida and Oklahoma to some extent, UT's title aspirations rest on the arm of a QB with limited starting experience. Gilbert is certainly the least experienced of the three, and though he played admirably against a tough Alabama defense, it's still only 1 game's worth of plays to evaluate him on. If I'm a betting man, he's the most likely to struggle.
The offense returns 6 starters, but lose top passing and receiving combination Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. LT Kyle Hix returns to anchor a line that will be counted on to get more than just 500 yards from RB Tre Newton. WR Malcolm Williams, all 6'3" 225 of him, and his 14.4 yards per catch will be counted on heavily to replace Shipley's production. He'll need to get some help from James Kirkendoll and Marquis Goodwin to make this offense effective enough to challenge for the conference, let alone the national title.
The defense returns 7 starters, but lost a ton of NFL talent in DE Sergio Kindle, DT Lamarr Houston, and All-World S Earl Thomas. Returning CB Aaron Williams is arguably the nation's best on the back end, and the front seven is loaded with young talent led by DE Sam Acho and NT Kheeston Randall. This unit will be the team's strength, and will have to be dominant by mid-season.
Texas' schedule is more difficult than OU's with a four week stretch than includes an always tough road game at Texas Tech, UCLA, OU and a rematch of the conference title game at Nebraska. There is no love lost between Texas and Nebraska, and with this being the Huskers last in the conference, this season should be interesting.
ACC
Although it's unlikely to happen, an undefeated or even one loss ACC champ could find themselves in the BCS title game if several things go their way. #6 Virginia Tech is the conference favorite, #13 Miami lurks behind, but defending conference champ Georgia Tech, and a host of other potentially dangerous conference foes make a 10 win season unlikely for any ACC contender. North Carolina and their nearly NFL caliber defense sit in the Coastal division with VaTech and the U, and the Atlantic could present challenges from Florida State's offense or Clemson's defense.
#6 Virginia Tech returns 8 starters to an offense that includes QB Tyrod Taylor and RB's with 2 1,000 yard seasons to their credit in 2009's leading rusher Ryan Williams and 2008's Darren Evans (who returns from an ACL tear). Tyrod Taylor is much like OSU's Terrelle Pryor and Miami's Jacory Harris in that they will all have to be more consistent passers to take their teams to conference and national titles. Like Pryor, Taylor's Offensive Line will have to do a better job of pass protecting in order to improve his efficiency. Having new starting LT Nick Beckton already nursing a turf toe injury, isn't the greatest start. WR Jarrett Boykins is one of the better pass catchers in the conference, and he'll be helped by Dyrell Roberts and big Marcus Davis, but the bread and butter of this team will be the power running game.
The secondary will be the strength of a very young defense only returning 3 starters. LCB Rashad Carmichael is an outstanding cover corner, and RCB Davon Morgan and FS Eddie Whitley are both playmakers. The question will be how this unit gels in the front seven, and whether younger guys can replace the pass rush abilities of departed players like Jason Worilds. Big things will be expected of SDE Steven Friday, who is the most experienced player in that unit. The bullets start flying at this Bud Foster defense right away, as Boise St. comes calling Week 1, and it doesn't help that projected MLB Barquell Rivers is likely to miss that game.
Great special teams play is always a hallmark of Frank Boehmer's teams, and this year should be no different. In such a big game as the BSU opener, this may be the wild card that swings the game in VT's favor.
The importance of the Boise game really cannot be understated for either team. If Boise loses, they are done in the national title picture, but Va Tech is almost in the same boat considering the competition in the conference. This team may not even win their division, let alone a conference or national title. The opener is difficult, and the end of the schedule includes Georgia Tech, @North Carolina, and @Miami in consecutive weeks.
#13 Miami has a ton of returning starters on both sides of the ball, including 7 on offense. QB Jacory Harris showed flashes of brilliant playmaking, but will have to be much more consistent, especially on the road. It didn't help that the O-Line's pass protection was particularly poor in 2009. The two returning starters on the line will be switching positions to LT and LG respectively, so how fast this unit gels will be a big factor in determining the ultimate success of the offense. RB's Damien Barry and Graig Cooper, who returns from a major knee injury, will need to provide enough out of the backfield that Harris won't have to shoulder the entire offense. Much like Pryor, Harris' development is the key to this team's ultimate success.
The defense returns 9 starters, including All-Conference DE Allen Bailey, SLB Colin McCarthy, and CB Brandon Harris. Bailey, the bull-rush specialist, leads a deep D-Line that will have to get more pressure on the QB than they did a year ago. While this unit is talented, it isn't nearly as good as the "U" in their heyday. This defense has speed, but even with all the returning starters, will not be better than the third best in the conference behind UNC and Clemson.
Special teams should be solid as the key players are returning starters.
The U struggled on the road last season, and this year they have consecutive games @Ohio State and @Pittsburgh, and are @Clemson and @GaTech in conference. They do catch North Carolina and Va Tech at home, but this has to be one of the most difficult schedules in the conference. Harris and the O-Line will have to come together quickly against that early schedule to have any shot of a national title.
Pac-10
#11 Oregon is the only Pac 10 team with a legitimate shot at a national title game berth, and it's going to take an undefeated season to get them there. If QB Jeremiah Masoli had not lost his mind and gotten kicked off this team, they'd certainly have been a preseason top 5 team. As it stands, this is QB Nate Costa's team. Costa actually won the QB job two seasons ago, but got hurt, so he has experience. Add in a dynamic RB like LaMichael James and the entire O-Line returning, and this team will have a good offense.
The defense will be solid, for a Pac 10 defense, led by MLB Casey Matthews and DE Kenny Rowe and 7 other returning starters.
The schedule is mediocre, with road games @Tennessee, @Southern Cal, and @Oregon State to end the season. The USC game is going to be the Trojans bowl game, and a very talented SC team will give Oregon all it wants. Without Masoli, I don't see this team doing enough to warrant a national title game bid.
Non-BCS schools
The BCS powers that be and the TV execs told you everything you need to know about what they think of non-BCS title contenders last season. With the chance to pair both Boise St. and TCU against big boy schools, they decided they'd only let those teams kill the ratings of one game instead of two, and made them play each other. Outside of one or both of these teams going undefeated, AND getting some help from Ohio State and the rest, there's no way a non-BCS team will be the first choice to take on the SEC champ. I know I sure don't want to see it.
#5 Boise State clearly has the best chance to make a title game based on the strength of their schedule. If they can beat Virginia Tech is what is basically a home game for the Hokies, and can beat a ranked Oregon State team, the in-conference road is clear for the Broncos.
The Broncos return more starters than any team in the country, with basically the entire offense, including 1st team All-American QB Kellen Moore, coming back off an undefeated season. BSU does just about everything well on offense and their numbers are PlayStation-ish, though it's a little hard to gauge just how good they are considering their usual competition. One thing is certain, if BSU leads a game in time of possession, it's most likely going to be a win against just about anyone.
The defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but they've been very solid the last couple of years. 10 starters returning, with the only loss being 1st round pick CB Kyle Wilson have them set up well again. The secondary should be very good once again, with NFL talent at corner and safety. The D-Line hasn't been great at rushing the passer, but returns 2 All-Conference starters.
I simply think it sets a horrible, horrible precedent if Boise (or TCU for that matter) get into the title game. You should not be awarded for beating up a lousy conference and playing one decent out of conference game. I don't care how many undefeated seasons you've had in the past, you should be rewarded for playing a difficult schedule, not an easy one. Go Hokies.
#7 TCU does not have the schedule to make the title game, even if they go undefeated this season. They have 16 returning starters including QB Andy Dalton, RB Joseph Turner, and all 3 Safeties in the 4-2-5 alignment, but it would take so many things to happen to get them to the title game, it's just not plausible. There will be a 2 loss big school team in the BCS championship game before an undefeated TCU with their weak schedule.
Again, one game against a ranked Oregon State, and a game @ barely ranked Utah, do not a championship resume make.
(It's a strange scheduling quirk that Oregon State plays both of the non-BCS contenders this season. I will be big a Ducks fan for at least two games this season. Three actually, including the Oregon game).
So where does this leave us?
Well, to end back where we started, I believe it's going to be Ohio State vs. the SEC champ. If not, it should be Big 12 champ vs. SEC champ (like the last two years). If not that, then either an undefeated Oregon or an undefeated or one loss ACC Champ vs. the SEC champ. Lastly on the pecking order would be Boise St. vs. the SEC champ. Hold a gun to my head and I'll say Ohio State vs. Florida, with the Buckeyes avenging a savage beat down to end the 2006 season. But I'm a blatant Ohio State homer, so take that with a grain of salt. O-H......
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