Bengals v. Dolphins-Week 8

Big, big game for both teams, but especially the Bengals who can only afford 2 loses for the remainder of the year if they have any playoff hopes. This matchup pits two teams who can relate very well to each other in terms of their relative struggles. Both teams have been run first teams in past seasons, but are struggling to establish any dominance on the ground and are really struggling to run in the redzone. Both have defenses that are giving up a ton of yards and points and have not been nearly as effective as they were in 2009. Both had playoff aspirations going into the season, but are looking up at two divisional foes ahead of them in the standings. Both face challenging schedules beyond this matchup. Of the two, Cincy still needs this one more.

When the Dolphins have the ball-
They need to get back to running it effectively early. The Dolphins have completely abandoned the Wildcat the last two games, but I expect to see some of it this week, especially in short yardage situations. The Bengals really struggled against the zone blocking scheme of the Falcons, and I'd look for the Dolphins to try to take advantage of LT Jake Long vs. smaller Bengal RDE's. With Odom and Fanene out, we may see some Carlos Dunlap this week which may be good or bad.

Either way, it's clear that the Bengals defenders are trying too hard to make things happen. Do your job, don't try to do your job and everyone else's. Over pursuit, bad angles, not reading keys, not maintaining leverage, not having faith in the other guys, it's all adding up to big plays. Guys like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall are going to make plays, it's the 3 yard dump off that goes for 20 yards that has to stop. Make the other team earn it.

Chad Henne has developed into a decent NFL QB and the Miami Oline has only given up 10 sacks against some pretty good pass rushes. The Bengals have struggled to get pressure outside of the Baltimore game, and will have to be better to win on third down. Henne has Marshall, Brian Hartline and Devone Bess at WR, and Anthony Fasano who's a decent TE, but it's the backs out of the backfield that worry me most. The Bengal LB's and Safeties have struggled in space, and missed tackles turn into big plays. CB and S have taken hits from injuries, and JJoe absolutely has to play in this game with Adam Jones now done for the season. If he can't go, it's going to be Morgan Trent playing all game with rookie Brandon Ghee or Chris Crocker playing out of position outside on the opposite sideline. Chinny Ndukwe is out, and Roy Williams is not good in coverage even if he does play. That will mean that either or both of Reggie and Tom Nelson will have to contribute if Crocker is the choice at CB. Advantage Miami. Huge advantage without JJoe.

The Bengals have generally been out-coached on both sides of the ball this season. Out-schemed, out-adjusted. Offenses have been creative in personnel and formation and the Bengals have not responded. Additionally, the Bengals have not been able to pressure without blitzing, but the LB's in particular have been ineffective outside of Keith Rivers. The middle LB blitz has been a total joke. Outside of run support, Dhani Jones is playing like crap. If they lose this game, and drop to 2-5, it's time to move Rey Maualuga to the Mike full-time.

The Dolphin Offense is not as good as Atlanta's, but they don't turn it over and they don't commit penalties. If the Dolphins can run it at all, they are going to put up yards. The silver lining is that they've struggled as mightily in the redzone as the Bengals, so this could be a field goal fest with 800 total yards of offense.

When the Bengals have the ball-
The no-huddle has been nice. The yards, especially the pass yards, have been nice. But this team is just not putting it together with any consistency. They've run it in spots, they've passed well in spots, but they've been just as bad as good at other times. Play calling, penalties, and miscues are ever present. Even in the incredible second half vs. Atlanta, there were plenty of frustrating mistakes holding this team back. Still, just as the glass is half empty, it's also half full. You can clearly see the talent level of this offensive unit, and the ability to dominate when everyone is just doing their job.

The Bengals can't just be a passing team, especially in the redzone. 2 rushing TD's just isn't going to cut it. 1 rush over 20 yards? There are holes, but no one's blocking downfield. Cedric Benson needs to take what's there and stop tying to be the hero. He continues to have ball security problems in key spots, with the latest being an absolute killer vs. Atlanta. RT Andre Smith played decently against Atlanta, and hopefully can emerge as the dominant run blocker they hoped he'd be. This offensive line is built to run, and Benson needs to run angry this week to atone. Bernard Scott has also shown flashes that warrant touches. He is electric and can develop into a Kevin Faulk type threat if the line can block better. You can't run routes if you consistently have to max protect. This team has shown the ability to be balanced, and if they can limit mistakes, can be a top tier offensive club. The Dolphins front has taken a lot of hits from injuries and are not an elite run stopping unit. They've sold out to stop the run the last couple of weeks and have paid dearly in the passing game.

So Carson Palmer is still part of the problem, right? I've said for some time, he's still the man. He misses throws, but so does every QB. See Brees, Drew from week 7. Anyhow, the Atlanta game showed that primary receiver Chad OchoDoucheBaggo is just as apt to run the wrong route as make a huge catch. TO is clearly the #1 on this team and will be thrown a deep fade at least twice a game. (Had he gotten his feet in bounds, the Bengals score instead of Ceddy Ced fumbling). Shipley and Gresham are stars in the making. Gresham is a matchup nightmare and needs, needs, needs, to the be the #1 target in the redzone. Please find this guy this week. Shipley is a punt returner in the open field and finally showed those skills last week. He's also shown the will to go up over the middle and make huge catches. This is a top 5 pass offense with tons of weapons, but they need to translate yards to points. It's as simple as that. The Dolphins have really struggled to stop the pass. The secondary is as bad as Atlanta's and has completely relied on the pass rush to stop teams. Palmer will have another 300 yard day, but it's imperative that few if any throws get caught by the wrong jerseys.

The Oline played pretty well against a really good pass rush in Atlanta. The road gets no easier against Cam Wake and the Dolphins. Then you get the Steelers and then Dwight Freeney and the Colts. The Dolphins have wracked up 17 sacks this season and forced 3 Ben Rapistburger fumbles last week. Penalties and negative plays have to be minimized to avoid obvious passing situations that slant to the favor of the pass rush. The Dolphins love to play aggressive press man coverage anticipating quick throws. Reading the hots and breaking tackles are the key to extending drives. Given time, the double moves and fades will be there for big plays. The Bengals have to be more judicious about when to call those plays. Also, having so many defenders near the line opens the possibility for huge runs if you get through.

Again, this is a decent offense up against a struggling defense. If the offense can avoid mistakes, and gets into rhythm, they can dominate.

Special teams-
The Dolphins special teams have been bad this season, but that might be skewed a bit by one of the worst games ever vs. the Patriots. Blocked kicks for TD, returns for TD, they did it all and their teams coach was fired for their effort. The Bengals haven't been great in the return or coverage games, but they've been better since having serious early season issues. Losing Adam Jones hurts, but Cosby and B Scott are experienced. Miami's return game doesn't scare me at all since the departure of one trick pony Ted Ginn.

As I said, this could be a field goal fest and both the Nuge and Dan Carpenter have been big this season. Kevin Huber is slightly better than Brandon Fields, but both have done a good job pinning opposition inside the 20.

Prediction-
I got back on the right side of things last week, but it was the wrong side for the Bungles. They have to have this game. Miami has a three game road winning streak coming in, which always bodes well for a loss in the topsy-turvy NFL. The Dolphins have not had a running back top 80 yards this season, and the Bengals D will have to be wanting blood after such a poor performance in the Dirty South. The Dolphins D just doesn't match up well at all with this offense, especially the pass offense. If they don't create turnovers caused by intense pressure, and they haven't done a great job so far, they're going to give up a ton of yards. It's the points that matter more than yards though, and whichever team can play better in the redzone wins. It seems that every game this year is 23-20 and not surprisingly, the over-under is 43 1/2. I'll take the Bengals and the under in this absolute must win game. If they lose, the next post is going to either be speculating on who the next HC will be, or who they will target in the draft. Yeah, it's that bad.