Well, if you listen to local and national media, this might be the worst 2-1 team of all-time! Carson is done, the storm clouds are closing in, and a particularly pesky 0-3 Cleveland team is next up for the guys in stripes. Lots of national talking heads either have or will call for the upset this week, and maybe they're right. (You'll have to wait a bit to find out what I think).
When Cleveland has the ball-
The will want to run it with Peyton Hillis the way they did last week in Baltimore. To the tune of over 140 rush yards, and 180 total yards by the big bruising tailback. I said after Mangini's first draft, (you know, the one where they passed on a frachise QB in Mark Sanchez and a dynamic pass rusher like Brian Orakpo to draft a Center), that it was clear this team was going to be a ball-control offense. Even with West Coast guru Mike Holmgren hovering above, this team is going to be run first and then try to hit you over the top with play action. Regardless of Quarterback.
I think Seneca Wallace will again get the start for injured Jake "the Human Turnover" Delhomme, but it could be either or both that get time this week. Wallace is more mobile, but is not as good as distributing to all potential receivers or reading through multiple progressions. Last week he barely threw to WR's and stared down the right side of the field most of the game. Dangerous behavior against an opportunistic Bengal secondary that is getting Adam Jones back this week. Delhomme for his part may be better at distribution, but he's a static target with a bad ankle, and just can't help but give you an interception or two. I can't imagine the Browns will go with Delhomme against this Bengals pass rush. Yes, the Bengals only have 2 sacks, but anyone who's watched this team for 5 minutes can see they have an active rush.
The strength of this Browns team is the offensive line, with names like Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack leading the way. The right side has historically been an issue for this team, primarily in pass protection (sound familiar?). RT John St. Clair injured an ankle in the first quarter of the Baltimore game, so that would the side to keep an eye on this Sunday.
The RB's are solid with Hillis, a straight ahead power back, and scat back Jerome Harrison the featured weapons. Both Harrison and backup James Davis are nicked up, so it will be 20-30 touches for Hillis if I'm a betting man. The best way to nullify the run game of the Browns will be to score points on them early and make them throw. So far, no one's been able to do that. The Bengals have a very aggressive, pursuit based run defense which sets itself up for big cutback runs. The question is whether Hillis can do what Ray Rice and Deangelo Williams have done to this defense already? I have my doubts. I'm sure there will be a few good runs Sunday, but I don't expect them to put up the numbers they did against Baltimore. I'll say 100 yards rushing and a TD. As long as the Bengals make them earn those yards and not give up easy big ones, I'm okay with those totals. Hillis has also put the ball on the ground a couple of times, and the Bengals have forced some fumbles, so there may be opportunities.
The WR's and TE's for the Browns are very marginal, and they barely throw to the outside guys. Mohammed Massaquoi has had big games against the Bengals, and they must make him a factor if they want to keep the defense off big play threat Josh Cribbs. The Browns do have 4 pass plays of over 40 yards, so the big play must be respected, but much of that is based off the run game and getting a favorable matchup. I have a ton of faith in the Bengals corners and S Chris Crocker to limit this exposure.
Turnovers are especially key for the Browns offense. This team has had a 4th quarter lead in every game this year! Turnovers, especially in key moments, have been their downfall. They played a clean game against Baltimore and nearly won. If the Browns can win the turnover battle, they can make this very interesting. If they don't, they have no shot.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals had a lot of problems with the Browns defense last year in both meetings, and this defense has been pretty tough so far in 2010. The defense is a huge reason they've had the lead late in each game, and a dropped pick-six interception early against Baltimore probably was the difference in that game. This is not an elite defense by any means, but they are solid, and I've really been impressed with the effort and intensity they bring each week. The problem this week is that the entire defensive front is Questionable for a defense that's struggled to get a pass rush without the blitz.
While the 2010 Bengal offense is not as "ground and pound" oriented as they were in 2009, I'm sure the Bengals will want to establish the run game early in this one. Especially if Shaun Rodgers can't go for the Browns, they will want to push the defensive front around and force safety help in the box. The Bengals have not yet had a 20 yard run and have only 1 pass play over 40 yards, so getting the run game going to open up play action is the best case scenario. Cedric Benson and the Oline got into a nice rhythm against Carolina, and I'm sure they'll want to keep that going. The Oline has struggled to find consistency in pass protection, so getting them firing out into some good run blocks might give them more confidence. Either way, they have to avoid the pre-snap penalties, especially in the red zone. 3 red zone penalties last week cost them at least 5 points, and that's just not acceptable. The coaches mentioned reviewing the personnel on the line this week, so don't be surprised to see new starters at RT and/or LG. Last week Fatty McManBoobs wasn't active, and Anthony Collins got plenty of work. Keep an eye out.
The run game has yet to get a 20 yard run, only has 2 TD's and is only averaging 3.2 per carry. Why? One reason is that the WR's aren't blocking like they did last year. You can say a lot of negative things about Vern Coles, but he was a tenacious blocker who brought some real attitude to blocking downfield. I also think that while Gresham has been great in the pass game, he's struggled in run blocking. I want him out there, but it's easy to see that he's not throwing blocks like Dan Coats threw early in the season last year. (See Farrior, James).
Much has been made, mostly unfair, about the struggles of Carson Palmer to get back to 2005 form. It's not a fair comparison. The 2005 team had arguably 9-10 pro-bowl caliber players on that offense, a young Chris Henry, and Chris Perry who caught 51 passes. That was a ridiculously talented team that had played together for two years. This offense is very much a work in progress with new guys in several key spots. Now that said, is Carson playing great? No. Is it all his fault? Absolutely not.
Let's take a couple of plays from the Carolina game: The first interception came on a mix up on the route between Carson and Chad. The near interception to Gamble was a bad decision by Carson where he pumped and decided to throw a dangerous pass late. Carson then plain overthrew TO on a post that was nearly picked. Carson would've had a TD to TO down the seam on the second interception, but the pocket totally collapsed and he was hit as he threw. Jermaine Gresham fell down on his slant route on the next near pick, and finally Carson made a bad decision to force a ball into Chad with zone coverage all around and a LB underneath. So it's a combination of bad routes, bad decisions, bad protection, and bad throws. Everyone can do better and they know it.
Actually I think they are trying too hard to make it work, Carson in particular. Look at the breakdown of passes. To TO and Chad, Carson was 8 for 21 with 2 picks. To the inside receivers Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham, Carson was 8 for 11 and they got a big PI call that lead to the first TD. To the backs, Leonard and Benson, Carson was 3 for 5 including a really nice PA TD pass to Benson. I think he's trying way too hard to get 85 and 81 involved. Case in point, on a 3rd and 1 in the 2nd quarter vs. Carolina, Carson forced a throw into Chad on a wide slant route where the pass had to go 10-15 yards and was low and behind for an incompletion. On that play, both Shipley and Leonard were wide open over the middle and both could've had the first down on a 5 yard pass. That has to be a better read.
The offense has had some nice drives this year, and it looks like they are right on the verge of really putting this thing together. Then they make a mistake and end up in a punt or a turnover or a field goal instead of a touchdown. Everyone can get better, but it needs to come in the flow of the game and in the structure of the offensive plan. This is not an engine that needs an overhaul, it's just still in the break-in period. I have confidence that this team is much more talented than last year and they will start to prove it....soon.
So back to Cleveland. CB Eric Wright had one of his worst games as a pro where he was beaten for 3 TD's by Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin. CB's are supposed to have short memories, but if Chad or TO can beat this guy early, they'll be in his head all game. The Browns only dress 3 corners, so I think it's important for the Bengals to use their depth to wear out this team. Either way, they're going to have to be better on 3rd down. 32% conversion rate isn't nearly good enough.
Cleveland D Coordinator Rob Ryan loves to blitz, and his best guys are OLB's Matt Roth and Marcus Bernard. They will come primarily from the offensive right, meaning whoever is playing RT and RG Bobbie Williams will have to play better than they did against Carolina. When the Browns blitz, Carson needs to find the open guy and not force it into the outside guys. We need a clean game from #9 because the best players for the Browns are in the secondary.
Teams-
This game puts two of the better special teams units on display. Josh Cribbs is the best returner in the business and P Kevin Huber will have to continue his excellent punting from last week and keep the ball away. K Mike Nugent has been incredible on field goal attempts this year, but his kickoffs may be the most important kicks this week. You can't give the Browns anything extra in the return game, and you absolutely can't give them points.
The returners for the Bengals weren't great against Carolina, but they too are a threat on kicks and punts. The Browns have solid coverage teams, so anything here is a bonus.
Prediction-
A lot of people are chirping about this being an upset, but I'm not buying. While it may be close and it may be ugly, the Bengals are getting accustomed to playing games this way. And they're pretty accustomed to beating the Browns. I think the Bengals take care of business and get to 3-1 going into Week 5 vs. Tampa. All of these games before the bye are big because the road gets really bumpy after that, and a divisional game carries extra weight. The national pundits have not had a good feel for this team over the last couple of years, and when the majority are picking against them, I feel pretty confident about my pick. So far I'm 3-0 and I see 4-0 in the not too distant future. Who Dey.
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