Bengals v. Buccaneers-Week Five

Well, the 72 Dolphins can pop the champagne as I officially dropped out of the ranks of the undefeated with my prediction of a win over the lowly Browns last week. A combination of mistakes, a lack of production in the redzone, and costly penalties put the ball control Browns in the driver's seat the whole game. Even a huge day of passing yardage and a historically great day by TO couldn't pull out a win. Disappointing, but hey, at least the Steelers lost too.

This week the Bengals welcome a young and somewhat up and coming Bucs team to the Jungle, in what I thought might be a trap game heading into the bye. With the loss to the Browns, I don't think focus is going to be the problem. The problem is, and I suppose always has been under coach Lewis, a lack of consistent execution in all phases that is holding a very talented Bengals team back. They've shown they have the ability to be amongst the better teams in the league in spots, but have not been able to avoid the mistakes that hold them back. They've beaten themselves in so many games over the last few years, it's beyond frustrating.

When the Bucs have the ball-
Offensively, the Bucs philosophy isn't that much different from the Browns. They'd prefer to establish the run game, dominate time of possession, and allow young QB Josh Feeman to pick you apart in spots. They don't want the entire game on his shoulders. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they've not been able to really get that ground game going like they'd hoped and have already added RB LeGarrette Blount off waivers to help Cadillac Williams and Kareem Huggins carry the load. Blount is the big power back, in the mold of what the Bengals just saw in Peyton Hillis, so it will be important for the offense to give this Bengal defense help. Score early and get the Bucs throwing. The Bucs have also struggled in the redzone, but Blount has already helped.

The Bucs have a very underrated OLine, lead by LT Donald Penn. The Bengals have done a decent job against the run this season, even versus Cleveland, but it's based on a team pursuit concept. This was exploited by cut back running teams in the early games, and in the misdirection passing game by Cleveland. The Bengals are also struggling to get pressure from the front without blitzing, so I'd fully expect them to bring a lot of heat against Tampa. Antwan Odom just doesn't beat better LT's, so more has to come from him and Michael Johnson in relief. Cleveland caught the Bengals in favorable personnel matchups last week because they were always a threat to run. One big example being the touchdown to TE Evan Moore over Chris Crocker in one on one coverage. Tampa will try to do the same. Crocker especially, must play a better game.

Cleveland and New England's TE's had big days versus the Bengals, and "the soldier" TE Kellen Winslow will be looking to keep that trend going. Dhani Jones, already iffy in pass coverage, has a hammy injury, so it'll be interesting to see how much he goes. Both he, Keith Rivers, and S Chris Crocker were picked on in coverage last week, so expect Freeman to be looking at these matchups. The Bucs also throw to the fullback Earnest Graham, but this again is most effective out of play action. Limit the run, you limit the offense.

The Bucs wideouts are very young, but talented. Lead by WR Mike Williams, this group can make some plays both deep and short with the ability to run. I like Williams a lot, especially if JJoe isn't going to go with his sore arm. If JJoe is out, Morgan Trent will have to play much better on the outside than he did against Cleveland where he was beaten repeatedly by Chancy Stuckey at very inopportune times.

Freeman is a bigger, stronger version of Seneca Wallace and can beat you running or throwing. He will have a run or two in this game that will move the chains, but gap discipline by the rushers will help to limit this. He's also a tough guy to sack, so it'll be very interesting to see how the rusher do against him. He is young though, and can be rattled. Just like last week, there will be just as many bad plays as good ones. The Bengals must continue to be opportunistic with turnovers when they get the chance. Get back to winning the turnover battle, and more wins will follow.

The defensive penalties must get cleaned up. Even though I have to say they got absolutely screwed on the holding call, the pass interference call, and the personal foul on Chinny, they still got called and they cost the team dearly. Lining up offsides is freaking stupid. Look at the goddamned ball!

Defensively, the Bengals will probably be missing Fanene, Roy Williams (which hurts in run support), and possibly Pat Sims. I expect DJones and JJoe to go, but for how long is another story.

When the Bengals have the ball-
They have to figure out a way to get more touchdowns, this is getting ridiculous. Even though the scored 2 against Cleveland, one was a fluky bomb to TO and the other they were bailed out by a personal foul call or they'd have settled for another field goal. If the redzone offense doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season. 3rd down conversion rates and scoring are the two biggest differences statistically between this team and the 2005 offense everyone compares them to. Gotta get more than 20 points a game against this schedule. They should've had 30 against that Cleveland defense.

Tampa has struggle to stop teams from moving the ball so far this season, and they haven't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop. A Charlie Batch lead Steeler team is the best offense they've seen, and even with a week to prepare, they should have plenty 'o problems against this offense. Tampa is giving up 335 yards per game, 141 on the ground without giving up a run over 40 yards. Translation=the Bengals should get the ground game going in this one with consistent positive gains. Move the chains boys.

I fully expect a heavy dose of Benson. The Bucs are still a Tampa 2 team, and will play more like Carolina than Cleveland, trying not to give up any big plays. It's critical against any Tampa 2 team, even a marginal one, that the offense stay methodical and play clean. These are two things the Bengals don't do consistently. Establishing a run game against a team that threw basically their whole draft at the defensive front is key to not only winning this game, but getting back to the identity this teams wants to have. Power running team with a vertical pass offense.

But the Bengals have had their problems running it, at least against base defenses. I don't want to hear about how great they ran in no huddle last week. They were down two scores and they were running at 6 man fronts. You better be able to run against that. It's running against 7 and 8 in the box, especially in short yardage and the redzone, that must improve. This team is not getting consistent blocking, especially from the WRs, TEs and FB positions. Benson has also looked indecisive and inept when no hole is clear. Gotta get better, and this is a good opponent to do it against.

The passing game is looking better, but there's room for improvement here too. The secondary of the Bucs are the best unit on the defense, lead by Aqib Talib and Rhonde Barber. They will still have their hands full with the weapons the Bengals have, but it's up to #9 to make good decisions and good throws and to limit mistakes. This team is still having snap count problems, and protection miscues that should not be happening. Roland got blown up twice on one on one blocks, but that is going to happen. The other two sacks were avoidable, and so were the two fumbles. You cannot give bad teams points by giving them a short field. This Bengal offense is showing some great things on drives and then short circuiting themselves. I feel like a broken record, so I'll let that go.

Suffice it to say that the Bengals will move the ball on this team, I'm looking to see if they can cash in drives for touchdowns. That will be the key to the season, and could be huge for momentum going into the bye.

Teams-
The Bengals have to get more out of their return game, especially punts. The kicking game has been solid and the coverage teams have improved since the horrid start to the season. Getting a field goal blocked is unacceptable, and cannot happen again this season. Two field goals off turnovers and a blocked field goal basically cost the Bengals a win versus Cleveland. Bad teams will beat you if you help them to. The Bucs have solid teams, including a kicker who's perfect on the season and a returner in Michael Spurlock has a return touchdown.

Prediction-
The Bengals offense should overpower this defense, and if they do, they will take away what the Bucs want to do offensively. The Bengals cannot have a repeat of last week, and I don't think they will. Bengals win at home and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.