Monday, May 30, 2011

The REDS struggles....by the numbers

1. Pitching-
This team has scored more runs than the Boston Red Sox, and continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the game (9.8 UZR/150-and adjusted defensive metric that accounts for range AND fielding percentage). They were mediocre as a staff last year, which was good enough for the division, but relied heavily on young guys like Leake and Wood. This season, the staff finds itself in the bottom third of all staffs, still wihout an ace and now struggling just to find healthy bodies.

2. Injuries-
So much for pitching depth, at least 7 key guys have been or are hurting. This team has seen Homer Bailey on the DL twice, along with rotation mate Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman and Sam Lecure from the pen on the 15 day so far. Jared Burton and Matt Maloney are on the 60 day. Edinson Volquez, still a mess from TJ surgery, has forced Mike Leake back into the rotation despite his own struggles. Even Bronson Arroyo had to get checked out after a bad outing on the last road trip. The bullpen in particular is full of names most fans won't recognize due to injuries. This is hardly the staff the front office envisioned at season's beginning.

3. Starting Pitching-
Overall the numbers aren't too bad. 7k/9, 3bb/9, an xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) a full run below their 4.96 ERA. The biggest problem they are having is with the home run. 1.29 per 9 and a HR/FB% of 12.3, both 2nd worst in baseball. You'd expect some of that playing in GABP, but not 29th out of 30 teams. (They were at 10% in 2010). Also pitching the fourth fewest innings so far this season has put tremendous stress on what looked to be a decent bullpen.

4. Bullpen-
Injuries and overuse have made a decent pen put up below average numbers. Nothing as extreme as the starters, but they too are walking too many at 4.33/9 and you'd like to see more k's out of the pen than 7/9. There are several pens giving up more than the Reds .86 Homers/9, but we all know they've come at really bad times. That has led to an xFIP about a half a run higher than their 3.47 ERA. As bad as the Cards pen has been, they're about even with the Reds and that should've been a huge advantage for Cincy.

5. LF-
Much maligned for it's collective lack of production compared (unfairly) with last season, LF has produced 13 homers, 43 runs, 44 rbi and 8 sb, and when Heisey or Lewis play, above average defense. The problem is the .223 avg and .309 OBP, and the fact that you do trade off Gomes streaky power for better all around play with the other two. The bar was set unrealistically high due in large part to Gomes stellar May last year. He isn't as good as the 84 rbi he had last year, but neither are the other two. Still, you could live with a platoon if other positions are stepping up.

6. 3B-
Newsflash: Scott Rolen is old. He can still pick it, but he isn't the middle of the order force this team had in the first half last season. The position's .275 avg isn't terrible, but the .328 OBP isn't very good, and the 3hr and 28 rbi are miserable for a middle order position. This isn't nearly enough to get a pennant, and the Reds are locked in for another $6M for Rolen next year too, and you're lucky to get 120 games out of him.

7. SS-
The Reds knew if they started Paul Janish at SS, he was glove first and bat second (if at all). Still a positional OBP below .300 (.278) is dreadful, especially with no homers and little speed. Again, Janish's glove could play if the rest of the lineup is potent. This one isn't right now. This is probably the #1 position to look at for a trade upgrade. Hello Jose Reyes.

8. CF-
Drew Stubbs still has a lot of room for improvement, but is clearly an everyday major leaguer. You can certainly live with a .250 avg, but the walk rate needs to improve to get the OBP up above .333. He's always going to strikeout a ton (nearly 30% of AB's), but his combination of defense, power and speed will play. I still would have him down in the order rather than leading off, but that's Dusty being Dusty. Perhaps a Reyes trade would fix that.

9. RH hitting-
Votto's power production and rbi's are a little low, but he's still a premier offensive player. Jay Bruce is leading the NL in homers and leading this team with 40 rbi. He's been the only hot bat, and this team is still losing. RH hitting is one big culprit. Outside of Brandon Phillips and his 30 rbi and Stubbs' 23, there's no one on this team with 20! They once again are getting decent production from the Hernandez/Hannigan platoon, but this team needs either 3B or LF to be a run producing position from the Right side of the dish.

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