Big, big game for both teams, but especially the Bengals who can only afford 2 loses for the remainder of the year if they have any playoff hopes. This matchup pits two teams who can relate very well to each other in terms of their relative struggles. Both teams have been run first teams in past seasons, but are struggling to establish any dominance on the ground and are really struggling to run in the redzone. Both have defenses that are giving up a ton of yards and points and have not been nearly as effective as they were in 2009. Both had playoff aspirations going into the season, but are looking up at two divisional foes ahead of them in the standings. Both face challenging schedules beyond this matchup. Of the two, Cincy still needs this one more.
When the Dolphins have the ball-
They need to get back to running it effectively early. The Dolphins have completely abandoned the Wildcat the last two games, but I expect to see some of it this week, especially in short yardage situations. The Bengals really struggled against the zone blocking scheme of the Falcons, and I'd look for the Dolphins to try to take advantage of LT Jake Long vs. smaller Bengal RDE's. With Odom and Fanene out, we may see some Carlos Dunlap this week which may be good or bad.
Either way, it's clear that the Bengals defenders are trying too hard to make things happen. Do your job, don't try to do your job and everyone else's. Over pursuit, bad angles, not reading keys, not maintaining leverage, not having faith in the other guys, it's all adding up to big plays. Guys like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall are going to make plays, it's the 3 yard dump off that goes for 20 yards that has to stop. Make the other team earn it.
Chad Henne has developed into a decent NFL QB and the Miami Oline has only given up 10 sacks against some pretty good pass rushes. The Bengals have struggled to get pressure outside of the Baltimore game, and will have to be better to win on third down. Henne has Marshall, Brian Hartline and Devone Bess at WR, and Anthony Fasano who's a decent TE, but it's the backs out of the backfield that worry me most. The Bengal LB's and Safeties have struggled in space, and missed tackles turn into big plays. CB and S have taken hits from injuries, and JJoe absolutely has to play in this game with Adam Jones now done for the season. If he can't go, it's going to be Morgan Trent playing all game with rookie Brandon Ghee or Chris Crocker playing out of position outside on the opposite sideline. Chinny Ndukwe is out, and Roy Williams is not good in coverage even if he does play. That will mean that either or both of Reggie and Tom Nelson will have to contribute if Crocker is the choice at CB. Advantage Miami. Huge advantage without JJoe.
The Bengals have generally been out-coached on both sides of the ball this season. Out-schemed, out-adjusted. Offenses have been creative in personnel and formation and the Bengals have not responded. Additionally, the Bengals have not been able to pressure without blitzing, but the LB's in particular have been ineffective outside of Keith Rivers. The middle LB blitz has been a total joke. Outside of run support, Dhani Jones is playing like crap. If they lose this game, and drop to 2-5, it's time to move Rey Maualuga to the Mike full-time.
The Dolphin Offense is not as good as Atlanta's, but they don't turn it over and they don't commit penalties. If the Dolphins can run it at all, they are going to put up yards. The silver lining is that they've struggled as mightily in the redzone as the Bengals, so this could be a field goal fest with 800 total yards of offense.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The no-huddle has been nice. The yards, especially the pass yards, have been nice. But this team is just not putting it together with any consistency. They've run it in spots, they've passed well in spots, but they've been just as bad as good at other times. Play calling, penalties, and miscues are ever present. Even in the incredible second half vs. Atlanta, there were plenty of frustrating mistakes holding this team back. Still, just as the glass is half empty, it's also half full. You can clearly see the talent level of this offensive unit, and the ability to dominate when everyone is just doing their job.
The Bengals can't just be a passing team, especially in the redzone. 2 rushing TD's just isn't going to cut it. 1 rush over 20 yards? There are holes, but no one's blocking downfield. Cedric Benson needs to take what's there and stop tying to be the hero. He continues to have ball security problems in key spots, with the latest being an absolute killer vs. Atlanta. RT Andre Smith played decently against Atlanta, and hopefully can emerge as the dominant run blocker they hoped he'd be. This offensive line is built to run, and Benson needs to run angry this week to atone. Bernard Scott has also shown flashes that warrant touches. He is electric and can develop into a Kevin Faulk type threat if the line can block better. You can't run routes if you consistently have to max protect. This team has shown the ability to be balanced, and if they can limit mistakes, can be a top tier offensive club. The Dolphins front has taken a lot of hits from injuries and are not an elite run stopping unit. They've sold out to stop the run the last couple of weeks and have paid dearly in the passing game.
So Carson Palmer is still part of the problem, right? I've said for some time, he's still the man. He misses throws, but so does every QB. See Brees, Drew from week 7. Anyhow, the Atlanta game showed that primary receiver Chad OchoDoucheBaggo is just as apt to run the wrong route as make a huge catch. TO is clearly the #1 on this team and will be thrown a deep fade at least twice a game. (Had he gotten his feet in bounds, the Bengals score instead of Ceddy Ced fumbling). Shipley and Gresham are stars in the making. Gresham is a matchup nightmare and needs, needs, needs, to the be the #1 target in the redzone. Please find this guy this week. Shipley is a punt returner in the open field and finally showed those skills last week. He's also shown the will to go up over the middle and make huge catches. This is a top 5 pass offense with tons of weapons, but they need to translate yards to points. It's as simple as that. The Dolphins have really struggled to stop the pass. The secondary is as bad as Atlanta's and has completely relied on the pass rush to stop teams. Palmer will have another 300 yard day, but it's imperative that few if any throws get caught by the wrong jerseys.
The Oline played pretty well against a really good pass rush in Atlanta. The road gets no easier against Cam Wake and the Dolphins. Then you get the Steelers and then Dwight Freeney and the Colts. The Dolphins have wracked up 17 sacks this season and forced 3 Ben Rapistburger fumbles last week. Penalties and negative plays have to be minimized to avoid obvious passing situations that slant to the favor of the pass rush. The Dolphins love to play aggressive press man coverage anticipating quick throws. Reading the hots and breaking tackles are the key to extending drives. Given time, the double moves and fades will be there for big plays. The Bengals have to be more judicious about when to call those plays. Also, having so many defenders near the line opens the possibility for huge runs if you get through.
Again, this is a decent offense up against a struggling defense. If the offense can avoid mistakes, and gets into rhythm, they can dominate.
Special teams-
The Dolphins special teams have been bad this season, but that might be skewed a bit by one of the worst games ever vs. the Patriots. Blocked kicks for TD, returns for TD, they did it all and their teams coach was fired for their effort. The Bengals haven't been great in the return or coverage games, but they've been better since having serious early season issues. Losing Adam Jones hurts, but Cosby and B Scott are experienced. Miami's return game doesn't scare me at all since the departure of one trick pony Ted Ginn.
As I said, this could be a field goal fest and both the Nuge and Dan Carpenter have been big this season. Kevin Huber is slightly better than Brandon Fields, but both have done a good job pinning opposition inside the 20.
Prediction-
I got back on the right side of things last week, but it was the wrong side for the Bungles. They have to have this game. Miami has a three game road winning streak coming in, which always bodes well for a loss in the topsy-turvy NFL. The Dolphins have not had a running back top 80 yards this season, and the Bengals D will have to be wanting blood after such a poor performance in the Dirty South. The Dolphins D just doesn't match up well at all with this offense, especially the pass offense. If they don't create turnovers caused by intense pressure, and they haven't done a great job so far, they're going to give up a ton of yards. It's the points that matter more than yards though, and whichever team can play better in the redzone wins. It seems that every game this year is 23-20 and not surprisingly, the over-under is 43 1/2. I'll take the Bengals and the under in this absolute must win game. If they lose, the next post is going to either be speculating on who the next HC will be, or who they will target in the draft. Yeah, it's that bad.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Bengals v. Falcons-Week 7
At 2-3, with a gauntlet of Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh and Indy looming, this game becomes the pivotal game of the season. The Bengals need to steal one of the next two road games and defend home turf to get back into the playoff picture. No easy task for an underachieving Bengal squad.
When the Falcons have the ball-
It's imperative to slow down the run attack and get pressure on Matt Ryan. The Falcons are a power run team with a vertical pass attack, but everything starts with the run. Ryan was off in Philly last week, missing some wide open guys. He's been great at home in his career, so the Bengals pass rush will have it's work cut out for it. LT Sam Baker really struggled with RDE Trent Cole last week, so there's reason for optimism. RDE Antwan Odom is out for four weeks while suspended, but that may not be a bad thing considered how poorly he's played. Hopefully the return of Johnathan Fanene will spark the D.
Roddy White is clearly the #1 receiver on this team and will have his share of catches. The key is keeping them short and not allowing any easy plays deep. Michael Jenkins was good in his season debut last week and gives them another decent option outside. With JJoe out, this could be a problem if Morgan Trent is asked to play a lot outside. The middle of the field is the main concern I have with Tony Gonzalez and RB Jason Snelling big factors in the pass game.
The Falcons will not have their #2 TE, so they may not run as much 2 TE sets as normal. Hopefully that helps the run D.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Falcons have an aggressive attacking pursuit based 4-3, similar to the Bengals. They are open to misdirection plays and cut back runs in the front, but also have the ability to create negative plays with great penetration. DE's John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are as good as it gets and will cause problems for RT Dennis Roland. Both guys alternate sides, so you can't lock in on one.
DT Peria Jerry is a disruptive player as well, so it's best to be able to run right at him on the interior. The Falcons do an okay job against the run, but it's the pass rush they excel at, especially at home. Staying out of long down and distance is imperative.
The secondary is bad, and was exploited all day long by the Eagles. The Bengals have hit on some long pass plays and today it's important for Chad especially to get involved. If the OLine can give Carson time, this could be a big passing day.
Brian Leonard is out, so I expect something big out of Bernard Scott today. The matchup favors his skill set more than C Benson.
Teams-
The Bengals have better returners than Atlanta and need to take advantage. Kicking games are similar.
Prediction-
Everything points to a Bengal loss, but there are some reasons for optimism. This is a classic trap game for Atlanta as they're coming off two straight road games and heading into a bye. The Bengals are the desperate team, coming off their own bye. They absolutely need to respond. I'm going to pick the Falcons, but a Bengal win won't surprise me one bit.
When the Falcons have the ball-
It's imperative to slow down the run attack and get pressure on Matt Ryan. The Falcons are a power run team with a vertical pass attack, but everything starts with the run. Ryan was off in Philly last week, missing some wide open guys. He's been great at home in his career, so the Bengals pass rush will have it's work cut out for it. LT Sam Baker really struggled with RDE Trent Cole last week, so there's reason for optimism. RDE Antwan Odom is out for four weeks while suspended, but that may not be a bad thing considered how poorly he's played. Hopefully the return of Johnathan Fanene will spark the D.
Roddy White is clearly the #1 receiver on this team and will have his share of catches. The key is keeping them short and not allowing any easy plays deep. Michael Jenkins was good in his season debut last week and gives them another decent option outside. With JJoe out, this could be a problem if Morgan Trent is asked to play a lot outside. The middle of the field is the main concern I have with Tony Gonzalez and RB Jason Snelling big factors in the pass game.
The Falcons will not have their #2 TE, so they may not run as much 2 TE sets as normal. Hopefully that helps the run D.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Falcons have an aggressive attacking pursuit based 4-3, similar to the Bengals. They are open to misdirection plays and cut back runs in the front, but also have the ability to create negative plays with great penetration. DE's John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are as good as it gets and will cause problems for RT Dennis Roland. Both guys alternate sides, so you can't lock in on one.
DT Peria Jerry is a disruptive player as well, so it's best to be able to run right at him on the interior. The Falcons do an okay job against the run, but it's the pass rush they excel at, especially at home. Staying out of long down and distance is imperative.
The secondary is bad, and was exploited all day long by the Eagles. The Bengals have hit on some long pass plays and today it's important for Chad especially to get involved. If the OLine can give Carson time, this could be a big passing day.
Brian Leonard is out, so I expect something big out of Bernard Scott today. The matchup favors his skill set more than C Benson.
Teams-
The Bengals have better returners than Atlanta and need to take advantage. Kicking games are similar.
Prediction-
Everything points to a Bengal loss, but there are some reasons for optimism. This is a classic trap game for Atlanta as they're coming off two straight road games and heading into a bye. The Bengals are the desperate team, coming off their own bye. They absolutely need to respond. I'm going to pick the Falcons, but a Bengal win won't surprise me one bit.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Bengals State of the Bye Week Address-Week 6
Wow, what a lousy start. I'd never have guessed that this team would be 2-3 going into the bye, off two vomit inducing losses to lousy Tampa Bay and lousier Cleveland. Worse still, is the way they've lost and the fact that they've basically been outplayed and out-coached in all three loses. Not good enough, not by a long shot, and the storm clouds are moving in for what could be a very rough middle of the season. Marvin Lewis is going to have to do his best coaching yet to rally this group if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. The easiest stretch of schedule is over. I thought they'd have to be at 3-2, minimum, to have a shot at the playoffs. Let's hope I'm wrong, because this season is taking on the feeling of a requiem for the Lewis era.
Before going too far forward, let's take a moment to look back. Way back. Before the Marvin Lewis was hired as head coach, after a successful run as linebackers coach in Pittsburgh and defensive coordinator in Baltimore and Washington, the Cincinnati Bengals were a laughing stock for more than a decade. Bengaldom had to suffer through the likes of Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick Lebeau (terrific coordinator, terrible head coach), as the leaders of this franchise. Marvin brought structure, a plan, and a level of professionalism that immediately changed the culture of losing. Everyone chanted "In Marvin We Trust" as the team looked to be turning slowly away from the abyss and back towards relevance. We've come a long way baby, and not in a good way. Eight mediocre years later, two playoff loses later, I don't know how many tears will be shed when Lewis does not return as head coach next season. I for one, am and will always be, a Marvin guy. And I'm very sad about the way this has gone. I think most other fans are angry, me, I'm just sad. I wanted so badly for Marvin to bring a title to Cincinnati, and it's not going to happen.
Despite some very talented teams, and despite personal drive, accountability, and professionalism, Marvin's teams have consistently shown a lack of the characteristics he exemplifies. I don't know how to explain that. This year's team is a perfect example. 12 win talent, 6 win discipline and execution. No excuse for that, and apparently no answers for fixing it. I love Marvin Lewis as a football CEO, but even I will admit that he and his staff often are out game planned and out-adjusted during games. Aggressive when you just don't need to be, sloppy when you need to be precise. That is frustrating. Watching team after team play this team waiting for them to self-destruct. Time after time, the Bengals accommodate. It's cliche, but I can't count the times the Bengals weren't beaten, they beat themselves. Ultimately, doesn't that come down to coaching?
Marvin deserves the heat, and so do his assistants. Three defensive coordinators have come and gone in the Lewis era. Leslie Frazier should probably still be here, but personal and professional differences ended that relationship. He's one of the hottest head coaching prospects in the game now. Chuck Bresnahan suffered from the least amount of talent on that side of the ball during Lewis' tenure, including the losses of high draft picks David Pollack and Odell Thurman, and the erosion of the skills key guys like Tory James and Deltha O'Neal. Never had a chance. Mike Zimmer has infused a new attitude and confidence in the last couple of seasons, and has also benefited from a ton of high draft picks contributing. The emergence of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph as star players would help any coordinator look good. The defense was good early, bad in the middle, and good again late, but never as dominant as we all thought it would be under a defensive guru head coach. Top 10's statistically, yes, but truly dominant, no.
Offensively, we've seen the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows under Lewis. Much of that has and does revolve around the health of Marvin's first draft pick, Carson Palmer. Lewis, Palmer, OC Bob Bratkowski (who Marvin retained as OC from the Lebeau regime), and Ken Zampese have been together throughout Lewis' tenure, destinies and legacies intertwined. The '05 Bengals will always be the great "what if" team. Much like the '09 Saints, this Bengals team featured a potent offense capable of running or throwing on anyone, and an opportunistic turnover creating defense. But the first play of that first Lewis playoff game changed everything, and a Steelers team that would've gone home for the remainder of the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl. The ultimate insult added to injury. Ah, what could have been.
The Bengals have never returned to that height on the mountain. Injuries to key guys, free agency, and the general roster turnover that is par for the NFL course, took their toll. It would be four more years before the Bengals would sniff the playoffs again, but there is no way the '09 team was as talented as the '05 team. (The 2005 Bengals had arguably 9 or 10 offensive pro-bowlers and another 2-3 on defense and special teams). The '09 Bengals won on grit and a physical style of play very different from any other Lewis team. But they couldn't beat the better teams without more firepower offensively. So they went into the 2010 offseason, probably Lewis' last, with that in mind. The added names like Gresham, Shipley, Bryant and Owens to a healthy Carson Palmer and a running game returning all it's key players. Expectations were understandably high. And in typical fashion, the Bengals under Lewis have not lived up to them.
Watching the first 5 games of the 2010 season has been torture. Death by a thousand cuts. Penalties, turnovers, bad decisions, bad philosophy, bad execution, you name it. The Bengals have found just about every possible way to make the kind of mistakes that lose games. And it's been everyone. Palmer has taken the brunt of the criticism, and much is deserved, but it's been a team effort to create this shit sandwich, and we've been forced to eat it. No playoff team is going 1-3 against Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa. Especially in the AFC. Especially when the hated Steelers were nearly 4-0 with the equipment manager playing quarterback. (I almost threw up in my mouth writing that). The Bengals needed a fast start, and this has been anything but.
They've looked great in spots. Flashes of brilliance. Then it's burns out. Why? Why do they continuously do this shit? Why do they have to make it harder on themselves? Why the silly pre-snap penalties? Why do you call a high risk play when you don't need it? Why do you throw a high risk throw when you don't need it? Why do you let other teams dictate the tempo and the play calls? The simple answer is, it's coached that way, or isn't coached depending on how you look at it. If it's coached correctly, guys either aren't implementing or don't care to. TO is bitching, Chad is bitching, Cedric is bitching, the line is bitching, and now even Palmer is bitching and beginning to throw coaches under the bus. It's not a good sign, at least in the short term. Maybe it is time for Coach Lew and Coach Brat to be gone, but it's week 6! "Game over man"!
At Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis. The next month looks fun doesn't it? How is this team going to do better than 2-2 against that? Maybe they'll be lucky to get to that. If they are 4-5 after week 9, that will give them one more loss over the last 7 weeks or they are out of the playoffs. No way a 9-7 team, with 2 conference loses already, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the division already leading them, is making the playoffs. Sprinkle in the potential for a fractured locker room and this thing could be all but done before Thanksgiving. I pray to the football gods that I'm wrong.
My biggest concern going into the season was the lack of a contract extension for Marvin because we've seen how this movie ends. Seattle, Mike Holmgren, last season of a contract, high expectations. That Seahawk team struggled early and absolutely mailed it in the second half because they knew, even with the replacement HC on the staff, there would be no accountability. Pride and professionalism are not enough in today's NFL to get athlete's to give their best. There must be accountability.
Marvin wants personnel control. Mike Brown won't give it to him. The lines have been drawn, and Marvin looks and sounds like a guy that knows the end is coming. Many will be happy about that, maybe they're right. For me, I'm profoundly sad about it. Most fans have a very short memory, and the NFL is a unique business. Win or lose, those are the only results that matter. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe it's not. I have the feeling we're about to find out if the field turf really is greener on the other side. I don't know that it will be......
Before going too far forward, let's take a moment to look back. Way back. Before the Marvin Lewis was hired as head coach, after a successful run as linebackers coach in Pittsburgh and defensive coordinator in Baltimore and Washington, the Cincinnati Bengals were a laughing stock for more than a decade. Bengaldom had to suffer through the likes of Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick Lebeau (terrific coordinator, terrible head coach), as the leaders of this franchise. Marvin brought structure, a plan, and a level of professionalism that immediately changed the culture of losing. Everyone chanted "In Marvin We Trust" as the team looked to be turning slowly away from the abyss and back towards relevance. We've come a long way baby, and not in a good way. Eight mediocre years later, two playoff loses later, I don't know how many tears will be shed when Lewis does not return as head coach next season. I for one, am and will always be, a Marvin guy. And I'm very sad about the way this has gone. I think most other fans are angry, me, I'm just sad. I wanted so badly for Marvin to bring a title to Cincinnati, and it's not going to happen.
Despite some very talented teams, and despite personal drive, accountability, and professionalism, Marvin's teams have consistently shown a lack of the characteristics he exemplifies. I don't know how to explain that. This year's team is a perfect example. 12 win talent, 6 win discipline and execution. No excuse for that, and apparently no answers for fixing it. I love Marvin Lewis as a football CEO, but even I will admit that he and his staff often are out game planned and out-adjusted during games. Aggressive when you just don't need to be, sloppy when you need to be precise. That is frustrating. Watching team after team play this team waiting for them to self-destruct. Time after time, the Bengals accommodate. It's cliche, but I can't count the times the Bengals weren't beaten, they beat themselves. Ultimately, doesn't that come down to coaching?
Marvin deserves the heat, and so do his assistants. Three defensive coordinators have come and gone in the Lewis era. Leslie Frazier should probably still be here, but personal and professional differences ended that relationship. He's one of the hottest head coaching prospects in the game now. Chuck Bresnahan suffered from the least amount of talent on that side of the ball during Lewis' tenure, including the losses of high draft picks David Pollack and Odell Thurman, and the erosion of the skills key guys like Tory James and Deltha O'Neal. Never had a chance. Mike Zimmer has infused a new attitude and confidence in the last couple of seasons, and has also benefited from a ton of high draft picks contributing. The emergence of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph as star players would help any coordinator look good. The defense was good early, bad in the middle, and good again late, but never as dominant as we all thought it would be under a defensive guru head coach. Top 10's statistically, yes, but truly dominant, no.
Offensively, we've seen the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows under Lewis. Much of that has and does revolve around the health of Marvin's first draft pick, Carson Palmer. Lewis, Palmer, OC Bob Bratkowski (who Marvin retained as OC from the Lebeau regime), and Ken Zampese have been together throughout Lewis' tenure, destinies and legacies intertwined. The '05 Bengals will always be the great "what if" team. Much like the '09 Saints, this Bengals team featured a potent offense capable of running or throwing on anyone, and an opportunistic turnover creating defense. But the first play of that first Lewis playoff game changed everything, and a Steelers team that would've gone home for the remainder of the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl. The ultimate insult added to injury. Ah, what could have been.
The Bengals have never returned to that height on the mountain. Injuries to key guys, free agency, and the general roster turnover that is par for the NFL course, took their toll. It would be four more years before the Bengals would sniff the playoffs again, but there is no way the '09 team was as talented as the '05 team. (The 2005 Bengals had arguably 9 or 10 offensive pro-bowlers and another 2-3 on defense and special teams). The '09 Bengals won on grit and a physical style of play very different from any other Lewis team. But they couldn't beat the better teams without more firepower offensively. So they went into the 2010 offseason, probably Lewis' last, with that in mind. The added names like Gresham, Shipley, Bryant and Owens to a healthy Carson Palmer and a running game returning all it's key players. Expectations were understandably high. And in typical fashion, the Bengals under Lewis have not lived up to them.
Watching the first 5 games of the 2010 season has been torture. Death by a thousand cuts. Penalties, turnovers, bad decisions, bad philosophy, bad execution, you name it. The Bengals have found just about every possible way to make the kind of mistakes that lose games. And it's been everyone. Palmer has taken the brunt of the criticism, and much is deserved, but it's been a team effort to create this shit sandwich, and we've been forced to eat it. No playoff team is going 1-3 against Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa. Especially in the AFC. Especially when the hated Steelers were nearly 4-0 with the equipment manager playing quarterback. (I almost threw up in my mouth writing that). The Bengals needed a fast start, and this has been anything but.
They've looked great in spots. Flashes of brilliance. Then it's burns out. Why? Why do they continuously do this shit? Why do they have to make it harder on themselves? Why the silly pre-snap penalties? Why do you call a high risk play when you don't need it? Why do you throw a high risk throw when you don't need it? Why do you let other teams dictate the tempo and the play calls? The simple answer is, it's coached that way, or isn't coached depending on how you look at it. If it's coached correctly, guys either aren't implementing or don't care to. TO is bitching, Chad is bitching, Cedric is bitching, the line is bitching, and now even Palmer is bitching and beginning to throw coaches under the bus. It's not a good sign, at least in the short term. Maybe it is time for Coach Lew and Coach Brat to be gone, but it's week 6! "Game over man"!
At Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis. The next month looks fun doesn't it? How is this team going to do better than 2-2 against that? Maybe they'll be lucky to get to that. If they are 4-5 after week 9, that will give them one more loss over the last 7 weeks or they are out of the playoffs. No way a 9-7 team, with 2 conference loses already, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the division already leading them, is making the playoffs. Sprinkle in the potential for a fractured locker room and this thing could be all but done before Thanksgiving. I pray to the football gods that I'm wrong.
My biggest concern going into the season was the lack of a contract extension for Marvin because we've seen how this movie ends. Seattle, Mike Holmgren, last season of a contract, high expectations. That Seahawk team struggled early and absolutely mailed it in the second half because they knew, even with the replacement HC on the staff, there would be no accountability. Pride and professionalism are not enough in today's NFL to get athlete's to give their best. There must be accountability.
Marvin wants personnel control. Mike Brown won't give it to him. The lines have been drawn, and Marvin looks and sounds like a guy that knows the end is coming. Many will be happy about that, maybe they're right. For me, I'm profoundly sad about it. Most fans have a very short memory, and the NFL is a unique business. Win or lose, those are the only results that matter. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe it's not. I have the feeling we're about to find out if the field turf really is greener on the other side. I don't know that it will be......
Friday, October 8, 2010
Bengals v. Buccaneers-Week Five
Well, the 72 Dolphins can pop the champagne as I officially dropped out of the ranks of the undefeated with my prediction of a win over the lowly Browns last week. A combination of mistakes, a lack of production in the redzone, and costly penalties put the ball control Browns in the driver's seat the whole game. Even a huge day of passing yardage and a historically great day by TO couldn't pull out a win. Disappointing, but hey, at least the Steelers lost too.
This week the Bengals welcome a young and somewhat up and coming Bucs team to the Jungle, in what I thought might be a trap game heading into the bye. With the loss to the Browns, I don't think focus is going to be the problem. The problem is, and I suppose always has been under coach Lewis, a lack of consistent execution in all phases that is holding a very talented Bengals team back. They've shown they have the ability to be amongst the better teams in the league in spots, but have not been able to avoid the mistakes that hold them back. They've beaten themselves in so many games over the last few years, it's beyond frustrating.
When the Bucs have the ball-
Offensively, the Bucs philosophy isn't that much different from the Browns. They'd prefer to establish the run game, dominate time of possession, and allow young QB Josh Feeman to pick you apart in spots. They don't want the entire game on his shoulders. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they've not been able to really get that ground game going like they'd hoped and have already added RB LeGarrette Blount off waivers to help Cadillac Williams and Kareem Huggins carry the load. Blount is the big power back, in the mold of what the Bengals just saw in Peyton Hillis, so it will be important for the offense to give this Bengal defense help. Score early and get the Bucs throwing. The Bucs have also struggled in the redzone, but Blount has already helped.
The Bucs have a very underrated OLine, lead by LT Donald Penn. The Bengals have done a decent job against the run this season, even versus Cleveland, but it's based on a team pursuit concept. This was exploited by cut back running teams in the early games, and in the misdirection passing game by Cleveland. The Bengals are also struggling to get pressure from the front without blitzing, so I'd fully expect them to bring a lot of heat against Tampa. Antwan Odom just doesn't beat better LT's, so more has to come from him and Michael Johnson in relief. Cleveland caught the Bengals in favorable personnel matchups last week because they were always a threat to run. One big example being the touchdown to TE Evan Moore over Chris Crocker in one on one coverage. Tampa will try to do the same. Crocker especially, must play a better game.
Cleveland and New England's TE's had big days versus the Bengals, and "the soldier" TE Kellen Winslow will be looking to keep that trend going. Dhani Jones, already iffy in pass coverage, has a hammy injury, so it'll be interesting to see how much he goes. Both he, Keith Rivers, and S Chris Crocker were picked on in coverage last week, so expect Freeman to be looking at these matchups. The Bucs also throw to the fullback Earnest Graham, but this again is most effective out of play action. Limit the run, you limit the offense.
The Bucs wideouts are very young, but talented. Lead by WR Mike Williams, this group can make some plays both deep and short with the ability to run. I like Williams a lot, especially if JJoe isn't going to go with his sore arm. If JJoe is out, Morgan Trent will have to play much better on the outside than he did against Cleveland where he was beaten repeatedly by Chancy Stuckey at very inopportune times.
Freeman is a bigger, stronger version of Seneca Wallace and can beat you running or throwing. He will have a run or two in this game that will move the chains, but gap discipline by the rushers will help to limit this. He's also a tough guy to sack, so it'll be very interesting to see how the rusher do against him. He is young though, and can be rattled. Just like last week, there will be just as many bad plays as good ones. The Bengals must continue to be opportunistic with turnovers when they get the chance. Get back to winning the turnover battle, and more wins will follow.
The defensive penalties must get cleaned up. Even though I have to say they got absolutely screwed on the holding call, the pass interference call, and the personal foul on Chinny, they still got called and they cost the team dearly. Lining up offsides is freaking stupid. Look at the goddamned ball!
Defensively, the Bengals will probably be missing Fanene, Roy Williams (which hurts in run support), and possibly Pat Sims. I expect DJones and JJoe to go, but for how long is another story.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They have to figure out a way to get more touchdowns, this is getting ridiculous. Even though the scored 2 against Cleveland, one was a fluky bomb to TO and the other they were bailed out by a personal foul call or they'd have settled for another field goal. If the redzone offense doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season. 3rd down conversion rates and scoring are the two biggest differences statistically between this team and the 2005 offense everyone compares them to. Gotta get more than 20 points a game against this schedule. They should've had 30 against that Cleveland defense.
Tampa has struggle to stop teams from moving the ball so far this season, and they haven't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop. A Charlie Batch lead Steeler team is the best offense they've seen, and even with a week to prepare, they should have plenty 'o problems against this offense. Tampa is giving up 335 yards per game, 141 on the ground without giving up a run over 40 yards. Translation=the Bengals should get the ground game going in this one with consistent positive gains. Move the chains boys.
I fully expect a heavy dose of Benson. The Bucs are still a Tampa 2 team, and will play more like Carolina than Cleveland, trying not to give up any big plays. It's critical against any Tampa 2 team, even a marginal one, that the offense stay methodical and play clean. These are two things the Bengals don't do consistently. Establishing a run game against a team that threw basically their whole draft at the defensive front is key to not only winning this game, but getting back to the identity this teams wants to have. Power running team with a vertical pass offense.
But the Bengals have had their problems running it, at least against base defenses. I don't want to hear about how great they ran in no huddle last week. They were down two scores and they were running at 6 man fronts. You better be able to run against that. It's running against 7 and 8 in the box, especially in short yardage and the redzone, that must improve. This team is not getting consistent blocking, especially from the WRs, TEs and FB positions. Benson has also looked indecisive and inept when no hole is clear. Gotta get better, and this is a good opponent to do it against.
The passing game is looking better, but there's room for improvement here too. The secondary of the Bucs are the best unit on the defense, lead by Aqib Talib and Rhonde Barber. They will still have their hands full with the weapons the Bengals have, but it's up to #9 to make good decisions and good throws and to limit mistakes. This team is still having snap count problems, and protection miscues that should not be happening. Roland got blown up twice on one on one blocks, but that is going to happen. The other two sacks were avoidable, and so were the two fumbles. You cannot give bad teams points by giving them a short field. This Bengal offense is showing some great things on drives and then short circuiting themselves. I feel like a broken record, so I'll let that go.
Suffice it to say that the Bengals will move the ball on this team, I'm looking to see if they can cash in drives for touchdowns. That will be the key to the season, and could be huge for momentum going into the bye.
Teams-
The Bengals have to get more out of their return game, especially punts. The kicking game has been solid and the coverage teams have improved since the horrid start to the season. Getting a field goal blocked is unacceptable, and cannot happen again this season. Two field goals off turnovers and a blocked field goal basically cost the Bengals a win versus Cleveland. Bad teams will beat you if you help them to. The Bucs have solid teams, including a kicker who's perfect on the season and a returner in Michael Spurlock has a return touchdown.
Prediction-
The Bengals offense should overpower this defense, and if they do, they will take away what the Bucs want to do offensively. The Bengals cannot have a repeat of last week, and I don't think they will. Bengals win at home and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.
This week the Bengals welcome a young and somewhat up and coming Bucs team to the Jungle, in what I thought might be a trap game heading into the bye. With the loss to the Browns, I don't think focus is going to be the problem. The problem is, and I suppose always has been under coach Lewis, a lack of consistent execution in all phases that is holding a very talented Bengals team back. They've shown they have the ability to be amongst the better teams in the league in spots, but have not been able to avoid the mistakes that hold them back. They've beaten themselves in so many games over the last few years, it's beyond frustrating.
When the Bucs have the ball-
Offensively, the Bucs philosophy isn't that much different from the Browns. They'd prefer to establish the run game, dominate time of possession, and allow young QB Josh Feeman to pick you apart in spots. They don't want the entire game on his shoulders. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they've not been able to really get that ground game going like they'd hoped and have already added RB LeGarrette Blount off waivers to help Cadillac Williams and Kareem Huggins carry the load. Blount is the big power back, in the mold of what the Bengals just saw in Peyton Hillis, so it will be important for the offense to give this Bengal defense help. Score early and get the Bucs throwing. The Bucs have also struggled in the redzone, but Blount has already helped.
The Bucs have a very underrated OLine, lead by LT Donald Penn. The Bengals have done a decent job against the run this season, even versus Cleveland, but it's based on a team pursuit concept. This was exploited by cut back running teams in the early games, and in the misdirection passing game by Cleveland. The Bengals are also struggling to get pressure from the front without blitzing, so I'd fully expect them to bring a lot of heat against Tampa. Antwan Odom just doesn't beat better LT's, so more has to come from him and Michael Johnson in relief. Cleveland caught the Bengals in favorable personnel matchups last week because they were always a threat to run. One big example being the touchdown to TE Evan Moore over Chris Crocker in one on one coverage. Tampa will try to do the same. Crocker especially, must play a better game.
Cleveland and New England's TE's had big days versus the Bengals, and "the soldier" TE Kellen Winslow will be looking to keep that trend going. Dhani Jones, already iffy in pass coverage, has a hammy injury, so it'll be interesting to see how much he goes. Both he, Keith Rivers, and S Chris Crocker were picked on in coverage last week, so expect Freeman to be looking at these matchups. The Bucs also throw to the fullback Earnest Graham, but this again is most effective out of play action. Limit the run, you limit the offense.
The Bucs wideouts are very young, but talented. Lead by WR Mike Williams, this group can make some plays both deep and short with the ability to run. I like Williams a lot, especially if JJoe isn't going to go with his sore arm. If JJoe is out, Morgan Trent will have to play much better on the outside than he did against Cleveland where he was beaten repeatedly by Chancy Stuckey at very inopportune times.
Freeman is a bigger, stronger version of Seneca Wallace and can beat you running or throwing. He will have a run or two in this game that will move the chains, but gap discipline by the rushers will help to limit this. He's also a tough guy to sack, so it'll be very interesting to see how the rusher do against him. He is young though, and can be rattled. Just like last week, there will be just as many bad plays as good ones. The Bengals must continue to be opportunistic with turnovers when they get the chance. Get back to winning the turnover battle, and more wins will follow.
The defensive penalties must get cleaned up. Even though I have to say they got absolutely screwed on the holding call, the pass interference call, and the personal foul on Chinny, they still got called and they cost the team dearly. Lining up offsides is freaking stupid. Look at the goddamned ball!
Defensively, the Bengals will probably be missing Fanene, Roy Williams (which hurts in run support), and possibly Pat Sims. I expect DJones and JJoe to go, but for how long is another story.
When the Bengals have the ball-
They have to figure out a way to get more touchdowns, this is getting ridiculous. Even though the scored 2 against Cleveland, one was a fluky bomb to TO and the other they were bailed out by a personal foul call or they'd have settled for another field goal. If the redzone offense doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season. 3rd down conversion rates and scoring are the two biggest differences statistically between this team and the 2005 offense everyone compares them to. Gotta get more than 20 points a game against this schedule. They should've had 30 against that Cleveland defense.
Tampa has struggle to stop teams from moving the ball so far this season, and they haven't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop. A Charlie Batch lead Steeler team is the best offense they've seen, and even with a week to prepare, they should have plenty 'o problems against this offense. Tampa is giving up 335 yards per game, 141 on the ground without giving up a run over 40 yards. Translation=the Bengals should get the ground game going in this one with consistent positive gains. Move the chains boys.
I fully expect a heavy dose of Benson. The Bucs are still a Tampa 2 team, and will play more like Carolina than Cleveland, trying not to give up any big plays. It's critical against any Tampa 2 team, even a marginal one, that the offense stay methodical and play clean. These are two things the Bengals don't do consistently. Establishing a run game against a team that threw basically their whole draft at the defensive front is key to not only winning this game, but getting back to the identity this teams wants to have. Power running team with a vertical pass offense.
But the Bengals have had their problems running it, at least against base defenses. I don't want to hear about how great they ran in no huddle last week. They were down two scores and they were running at 6 man fronts. You better be able to run against that. It's running against 7 and 8 in the box, especially in short yardage and the redzone, that must improve. This team is not getting consistent blocking, especially from the WRs, TEs and FB positions. Benson has also looked indecisive and inept when no hole is clear. Gotta get better, and this is a good opponent to do it against.
The passing game is looking better, but there's room for improvement here too. The secondary of the Bucs are the best unit on the defense, lead by Aqib Talib and Rhonde Barber. They will still have their hands full with the weapons the Bengals have, but it's up to #9 to make good decisions and good throws and to limit mistakes. This team is still having snap count problems, and protection miscues that should not be happening. Roland got blown up twice on one on one blocks, but that is going to happen. The other two sacks were avoidable, and so were the two fumbles. You cannot give bad teams points by giving them a short field. This Bengal offense is showing some great things on drives and then short circuiting themselves. I feel like a broken record, so I'll let that go.
Suffice it to say that the Bengals will move the ball on this team, I'm looking to see if they can cash in drives for touchdowns. That will be the key to the season, and could be huge for momentum going into the bye.
Teams-
The Bengals have to get more out of their return game, especially punts. The kicking game has been solid and the coverage teams have improved since the horrid start to the season. Getting a field goal blocked is unacceptable, and cannot happen again this season. Two field goals off turnovers and a blocked field goal basically cost the Bengals a win versus Cleveland. Bad teams will beat you if you help them to. The Bucs have solid teams, including a kicker who's perfect on the season and a returner in Michael Spurlock has a return touchdown.
Prediction-
The Bengals offense should overpower this defense, and if they do, they will take away what the Bucs want to do offensively. The Bengals cannot have a repeat of last week, and I don't think they will. Bengals win at home and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Bengals v. Browns-Week Four
Well, if you listen to local and national media, this might be the worst 2-1 team of all-time! Carson is done, the storm clouds are closing in, and a particularly pesky 0-3 Cleveland team is next up for the guys in stripes. Lots of national talking heads either have or will call for the upset this week, and maybe they're right. (You'll have to wait a bit to find out what I think).
When Cleveland has the ball-
The will want to run it with Peyton Hillis the way they did last week in Baltimore. To the tune of over 140 rush yards, and 180 total yards by the big bruising tailback. I said after Mangini's first draft, (you know, the one where they passed on a frachise QB in Mark Sanchez and a dynamic pass rusher like Brian Orakpo to draft a Center), that it was clear this team was going to be a ball-control offense. Even with West Coast guru Mike Holmgren hovering above, this team is going to be run first and then try to hit you over the top with play action. Regardless of Quarterback.
I think Seneca Wallace will again get the start for injured Jake "the Human Turnover" Delhomme, but it could be either or both that get time this week. Wallace is more mobile, but is not as good as distributing to all potential receivers or reading through multiple progressions. Last week he barely threw to WR's and stared down the right side of the field most of the game. Dangerous behavior against an opportunistic Bengal secondary that is getting Adam Jones back this week. Delhomme for his part may be better at distribution, but he's a static target with a bad ankle, and just can't help but give you an interception or two. I can't imagine the Browns will go with Delhomme against this Bengals pass rush. Yes, the Bengals only have 2 sacks, but anyone who's watched this team for 5 minutes can see they have an active rush.
The strength of this Browns team is the offensive line, with names like Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack leading the way. The right side has historically been an issue for this team, primarily in pass protection (sound familiar?). RT John St. Clair injured an ankle in the first quarter of the Baltimore game, so that would the side to keep an eye on this Sunday.
The RB's are solid with Hillis, a straight ahead power back, and scat back Jerome Harrison the featured weapons. Both Harrison and backup James Davis are nicked up, so it will be 20-30 touches for Hillis if I'm a betting man. The best way to nullify the run game of the Browns will be to score points on them early and make them throw. So far, no one's been able to do that. The Bengals have a very aggressive, pursuit based run defense which sets itself up for big cutback runs. The question is whether Hillis can do what Ray Rice and Deangelo Williams have done to this defense already? I have my doubts. I'm sure there will be a few good runs Sunday, but I don't expect them to put up the numbers they did against Baltimore. I'll say 100 yards rushing and a TD. As long as the Bengals make them earn those yards and not give up easy big ones, I'm okay with those totals. Hillis has also put the ball on the ground a couple of times, and the Bengals have forced some fumbles, so there may be opportunities.
The WR's and TE's for the Browns are very marginal, and they barely throw to the outside guys. Mohammed Massaquoi has had big games against the Bengals, and they must make him a factor if they want to keep the defense off big play threat Josh Cribbs. The Browns do have 4 pass plays of over 40 yards, so the big play must be respected, but much of that is based off the run game and getting a favorable matchup. I have a ton of faith in the Bengals corners and S Chris Crocker to limit this exposure.
Turnovers are especially key for the Browns offense. This team has had a 4th quarter lead in every game this year! Turnovers, especially in key moments, have been their downfall. They played a clean game against Baltimore and nearly won. If the Browns can win the turnover battle, they can make this very interesting. If they don't, they have no shot.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals had a lot of problems with the Browns defense last year in both meetings, and this defense has been pretty tough so far in 2010. The defense is a huge reason they've had the lead late in each game, and a dropped pick-six interception early against Baltimore probably was the difference in that game. This is not an elite defense by any means, but they are solid, and I've really been impressed with the effort and intensity they bring each week. The problem this week is that the entire defensive front is Questionable for a defense that's struggled to get a pass rush without the blitz.
While the 2010 Bengal offense is not as "ground and pound" oriented as they were in 2009, I'm sure the Bengals will want to establish the run game early in this one. Especially if Shaun Rodgers can't go for the Browns, they will want to push the defensive front around and force safety help in the box. The Bengals have not yet had a 20 yard run and have only 1 pass play over 40 yards, so getting the run game going to open up play action is the best case scenario. Cedric Benson and the Oline got into a nice rhythm against Carolina, and I'm sure they'll want to keep that going. The Oline has struggled to find consistency in pass protection, so getting them firing out into some good run blocks might give them more confidence. Either way, they have to avoid the pre-snap penalties, especially in the red zone. 3 red zone penalties last week cost them at least 5 points, and that's just not acceptable. The coaches mentioned reviewing the personnel on the line this week, so don't be surprised to see new starters at RT and/or LG. Last week Fatty McManBoobs wasn't active, and Anthony Collins got plenty of work. Keep an eye out.
The run game has yet to get a 20 yard run, only has 2 TD's and is only averaging 3.2 per carry. Why? One reason is that the WR's aren't blocking like they did last year. You can say a lot of negative things about Vern Coles, but he was a tenacious blocker who brought some real attitude to blocking downfield. I also think that while Gresham has been great in the pass game, he's struggled in run blocking. I want him out there, but it's easy to see that he's not throwing blocks like Dan Coats threw early in the season last year. (See Farrior, James).
Much has been made, mostly unfair, about the struggles of Carson Palmer to get back to 2005 form. It's not a fair comparison. The 2005 team had arguably 9-10 pro-bowl caliber players on that offense, a young Chris Henry, and Chris Perry who caught 51 passes. That was a ridiculously talented team that had played together for two years. This offense is very much a work in progress with new guys in several key spots. Now that said, is Carson playing great? No. Is it all his fault? Absolutely not.
Let's take a couple of plays from the Carolina game: The first interception came on a mix up on the route between Carson and Chad. The near interception to Gamble was a bad decision by Carson where he pumped and decided to throw a dangerous pass late. Carson then plain overthrew TO on a post that was nearly picked. Carson would've had a TD to TO down the seam on the second interception, but the pocket totally collapsed and he was hit as he threw. Jermaine Gresham fell down on his slant route on the next near pick, and finally Carson made a bad decision to force a ball into Chad with zone coverage all around and a LB underneath. So it's a combination of bad routes, bad decisions, bad protection, and bad throws. Everyone can do better and they know it.
Actually I think they are trying too hard to make it work, Carson in particular. Look at the breakdown of passes. To TO and Chad, Carson was 8 for 21 with 2 picks. To the inside receivers Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham, Carson was 8 for 11 and they got a big PI call that lead to the first TD. To the backs, Leonard and Benson, Carson was 3 for 5 including a really nice PA TD pass to Benson. I think he's trying way too hard to get 85 and 81 involved. Case in point, on a 3rd and 1 in the 2nd quarter vs. Carolina, Carson forced a throw into Chad on a wide slant route where the pass had to go 10-15 yards and was low and behind for an incompletion. On that play, both Shipley and Leonard were wide open over the middle and both could've had the first down on a 5 yard pass. That has to be a better read.
The offense has had some nice drives this year, and it looks like they are right on the verge of really putting this thing together. Then they make a mistake and end up in a punt or a turnover or a field goal instead of a touchdown. Everyone can get better, but it needs to come in the flow of the game and in the structure of the offensive plan. This is not an engine that needs an overhaul, it's just still in the break-in period. I have confidence that this team is much more talented than last year and they will start to prove it....soon.
So back to Cleveland. CB Eric Wright had one of his worst games as a pro where he was beaten for 3 TD's by Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin. CB's are supposed to have short memories, but if Chad or TO can beat this guy early, they'll be in his head all game. The Browns only dress 3 corners, so I think it's important for the Bengals to use their depth to wear out this team. Either way, they're going to have to be better on 3rd down. 32% conversion rate isn't nearly good enough.
Cleveland D Coordinator Rob Ryan loves to blitz, and his best guys are OLB's Matt Roth and Marcus Bernard. They will come primarily from the offensive right, meaning whoever is playing RT and RG Bobbie Williams will have to play better than they did against Carolina. When the Browns blitz, Carson needs to find the open guy and not force it into the outside guys. We need a clean game from #9 because the best players for the Browns are in the secondary.
Teams-
This game puts two of the better special teams units on display. Josh Cribbs is the best returner in the business and P Kevin Huber will have to continue his excellent punting from last week and keep the ball away. K Mike Nugent has been incredible on field goal attempts this year, but his kickoffs may be the most important kicks this week. You can't give the Browns anything extra in the return game, and you absolutely can't give them points.
The returners for the Bengals weren't great against Carolina, but they too are a threat on kicks and punts. The Browns have solid coverage teams, so anything here is a bonus.
Prediction-
A lot of people are chirping about this being an upset, but I'm not buying. While it may be close and it may be ugly, the Bengals are getting accustomed to playing games this way. And they're pretty accustomed to beating the Browns. I think the Bengals take care of business and get to 3-1 going into Week 5 vs. Tampa. All of these games before the bye are big because the road gets really bumpy after that, and a divisional game carries extra weight. The national pundits have not had a good feel for this team over the last couple of years, and when the majority are picking against them, I feel pretty confident about my pick. So far I'm 3-0 and I see 4-0 in the not too distant future. Who Dey.
When Cleveland has the ball-
The will want to run it with Peyton Hillis the way they did last week in Baltimore. To the tune of over 140 rush yards, and 180 total yards by the big bruising tailback. I said after Mangini's first draft, (you know, the one where they passed on a frachise QB in Mark Sanchez and a dynamic pass rusher like Brian Orakpo to draft a Center), that it was clear this team was going to be a ball-control offense. Even with West Coast guru Mike Holmgren hovering above, this team is going to be run first and then try to hit you over the top with play action. Regardless of Quarterback.
I think Seneca Wallace will again get the start for injured Jake "the Human Turnover" Delhomme, but it could be either or both that get time this week. Wallace is more mobile, but is not as good as distributing to all potential receivers or reading through multiple progressions. Last week he barely threw to WR's and stared down the right side of the field most of the game. Dangerous behavior against an opportunistic Bengal secondary that is getting Adam Jones back this week. Delhomme for his part may be better at distribution, but he's a static target with a bad ankle, and just can't help but give you an interception or two. I can't imagine the Browns will go with Delhomme against this Bengals pass rush. Yes, the Bengals only have 2 sacks, but anyone who's watched this team for 5 minutes can see they have an active rush.
The strength of this Browns team is the offensive line, with names like Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack leading the way. The right side has historically been an issue for this team, primarily in pass protection (sound familiar?). RT John St. Clair injured an ankle in the first quarter of the Baltimore game, so that would the side to keep an eye on this Sunday.
The RB's are solid with Hillis, a straight ahead power back, and scat back Jerome Harrison the featured weapons. Both Harrison and backup James Davis are nicked up, so it will be 20-30 touches for Hillis if I'm a betting man. The best way to nullify the run game of the Browns will be to score points on them early and make them throw. So far, no one's been able to do that. The Bengals have a very aggressive, pursuit based run defense which sets itself up for big cutback runs. The question is whether Hillis can do what Ray Rice and Deangelo Williams have done to this defense already? I have my doubts. I'm sure there will be a few good runs Sunday, but I don't expect them to put up the numbers they did against Baltimore. I'll say 100 yards rushing and a TD. As long as the Bengals make them earn those yards and not give up easy big ones, I'm okay with those totals. Hillis has also put the ball on the ground a couple of times, and the Bengals have forced some fumbles, so there may be opportunities.
The WR's and TE's for the Browns are very marginal, and they barely throw to the outside guys. Mohammed Massaquoi has had big games against the Bengals, and they must make him a factor if they want to keep the defense off big play threat Josh Cribbs. The Browns do have 4 pass plays of over 40 yards, so the big play must be respected, but much of that is based off the run game and getting a favorable matchup. I have a ton of faith in the Bengals corners and S Chris Crocker to limit this exposure.
Turnovers are especially key for the Browns offense. This team has had a 4th quarter lead in every game this year! Turnovers, especially in key moments, have been their downfall. They played a clean game against Baltimore and nearly won. If the Browns can win the turnover battle, they can make this very interesting. If they don't, they have no shot.
When the Bengals have the ball-
The Bengals had a lot of problems with the Browns defense last year in both meetings, and this defense has been pretty tough so far in 2010. The defense is a huge reason they've had the lead late in each game, and a dropped pick-six interception early against Baltimore probably was the difference in that game. This is not an elite defense by any means, but they are solid, and I've really been impressed with the effort and intensity they bring each week. The problem this week is that the entire defensive front is Questionable for a defense that's struggled to get a pass rush without the blitz.
While the 2010 Bengal offense is not as "ground and pound" oriented as they were in 2009, I'm sure the Bengals will want to establish the run game early in this one. Especially if Shaun Rodgers can't go for the Browns, they will want to push the defensive front around and force safety help in the box. The Bengals have not yet had a 20 yard run and have only 1 pass play over 40 yards, so getting the run game going to open up play action is the best case scenario. Cedric Benson and the Oline got into a nice rhythm against Carolina, and I'm sure they'll want to keep that going. The Oline has struggled to find consistency in pass protection, so getting them firing out into some good run blocks might give them more confidence. Either way, they have to avoid the pre-snap penalties, especially in the red zone. 3 red zone penalties last week cost them at least 5 points, and that's just not acceptable. The coaches mentioned reviewing the personnel on the line this week, so don't be surprised to see new starters at RT and/or LG. Last week Fatty McManBoobs wasn't active, and Anthony Collins got plenty of work. Keep an eye out.
The run game has yet to get a 20 yard run, only has 2 TD's and is only averaging 3.2 per carry. Why? One reason is that the WR's aren't blocking like they did last year. You can say a lot of negative things about Vern Coles, but he was a tenacious blocker who brought some real attitude to blocking downfield. I also think that while Gresham has been great in the pass game, he's struggled in run blocking. I want him out there, but it's easy to see that he's not throwing blocks like Dan Coats threw early in the season last year. (See Farrior, James).
Much has been made, mostly unfair, about the struggles of Carson Palmer to get back to 2005 form. It's not a fair comparison. The 2005 team had arguably 9-10 pro-bowl caliber players on that offense, a young Chris Henry, and Chris Perry who caught 51 passes. That was a ridiculously talented team that had played together for two years. This offense is very much a work in progress with new guys in several key spots. Now that said, is Carson playing great? No. Is it all his fault? Absolutely not.
Let's take a couple of plays from the Carolina game: The first interception came on a mix up on the route between Carson and Chad. The near interception to Gamble was a bad decision by Carson where he pumped and decided to throw a dangerous pass late. Carson then plain overthrew TO on a post that was nearly picked. Carson would've had a TD to TO down the seam on the second interception, but the pocket totally collapsed and he was hit as he threw. Jermaine Gresham fell down on his slant route on the next near pick, and finally Carson made a bad decision to force a ball into Chad with zone coverage all around and a LB underneath. So it's a combination of bad routes, bad decisions, bad protection, and bad throws. Everyone can do better and they know it.
Actually I think they are trying too hard to make it work, Carson in particular. Look at the breakdown of passes. To TO and Chad, Carson was 8 for 21 with 2 picks. To the inside receivers Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham, Carson was 8 for 11 and they got a big PI call that lead to the first TD. To the backs, Leonard and Benson, Carson was 3 for 5 including a really nice PA TD pass to Benson. I think he's trying way too hard to get 85 and 81 involved. Case in point, on a 3rd and 1 in the 2nd quarter vs. Carolina, Carson forced a throw into Chad on a wide slant route where the pass had to go 10-15 yards and was low and behind for an incompletion. On that play, both Shipley and Leonard were wide open over the middle and both could've had the first down on a 5 yard pass. That has to be a better read.
The offense has had some nice drives this year, and it looks like they are right on the verge of really putting this thing together. Then they make a mistake and end up in a punt or a turnover or a field goal instead of a touchdown. Everyone can get better, but it needs to come in the flow of the game and in the structure of the offensive plan. This is not an engine that needs an overhaul, it's just still in the break-in period. I have confidence that this team is much more talented than last year and they will start to prove it....soon.
So back to Cleveland. CB Eric Wright had one of his worst games as a pro where he was beaten for 3 TD's by Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin. CB's are supposed to have short memories, but if Chad or TO can beat this guy early, they'll be in his head all game. The Browns only dress 3 corners, so I think it's important for the Bengals to use their depth to wear out this team. Either way, they're going to have to be better on 3rd down. 32% conversion rate isn't nearly good enough.
Cleveland D Coordinator Rob Ryan loves to blitz, and his best guys are OLB's Matt Roth and Marcus Bernard. They will come primarily from the offensive right, meaning whoever is playing RT and RG Bobbie Williams will have to play better than they did against Carolina. When the Browns blitz, Carson needs to find the open guy and not force it into the outside guys. We need a clean game from #9 because the best players for the Browns are in the secondary.
Teams-
This game puts two of the better special teams units on display. Josh Cribbs is the best returner in the business and P Kevin Huber will have to continue his excellent punting from last week and keep the ball away. K Mike Nugent has been incredible on field goal attempts this year, but his kickoffs may be the most important kicks this week. You can't give the Browns anything extra in the return game, and you absolutely can't give them points.
The returners for the Bengals weren't great against Carolina, but they too are a threat on kicks and punts. The Browns have solid coverage teams, so anything here is a bonus.
Prediction-
A lot of people are chirping about this being an upset, but I'm not buying. While it may be close and it may be ugly, the Bengals are getting accustomed to playing games this way. And they're pretty accustomed to beating the Browns. I think the Bengals take care of business and get to 3-1 going into Week 5 vs. Tampa. All of these games before the bye are big because the road gets really bumpy after that, and a divisional game carries extra weight. The national pundits have not had a good feel for this team over the last couple of years, and when the majority are picking against them, I feel pretty confident about my pick. So far I'm 3-0 and I see 4-0 in the not too distant future. Who Dey.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)