Terrelle Pryor....boom or bust?

The ultimate success of the 2010 Ohio State Buckeyes, delivering on the promise of a pre-season #2 ranking, fittingly have been laid at the feet of #2. While Terrelle Pryor's athletic talent is undeniable, there are more questions about his leadership abilities and quarterback skills than answers. How good is he? How good can he be? Is he capable of the decision making and is he capable of making the throws necessary to win a national title? I'll admit that I don't know, but I do have some thoughts.

Firstly, I'm a homer. I admit it. I'd be more likely to say negative things if he were a Wolverine instead of a beloved Buckeye. Sue me. No, please don't. Secondly, I'm a homer. Okay, let's move on. I think Terrelle Pryor will be better this season than he was last season, both as a runner and a passer. One thing really bothers me about saying that though, is that you have to acknowledge that he got better LAST year.

I love stats, and I'd love to point directly at the stats and say the Pryor was markedly better every week after the Purdue game. I can't, because the stats don't say that. He had huge games against Penn State and Oregon after the Purdue game, but he also had very marginal games including pedestrian numbers against Michigan. Still, my overall impression of Pryor last season was that he played better after that disappointing loss at Purdue.

The coaches seemed to trust him more and more each week. Starting with more controlled passing to get him into a rhythm and finally allowing him to start airing it out more consistently. While his completion percentages weren't great in all those games, he never again had more interceptions than touchdowns as he did in the two previous loses. (Of course he'd played horribly against USC in the second game of the season).

Detractors might say that he had poor numbers against Iowa and at Michigan, and too much will be made of his huge game against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Fair points to which I would say that Jim Tressel, in typical fashion, played it close to the vest against an Iowa team starting a young backup quarterback and against a Michigan team they would've rolled with Joe Bauserman at QB. That doesn't make up for a 9-17 performance, but it's also not fair to suggest he isn't capable of repeating the 22-37 game he'd have a few weeks later in Pasadena.

I think it's rather funny that people always want to criticize his mechanics when stating that Pryor will never be a good passer. Vince Young has ugly form. Phillip Rivers has less than ideal mechanics. Bernie Kosar had an ugly motion. They were all effective. Pryor will never have great form, but does the ball come out well? The ball looks like it has a pretty nice spiral on it on both intermediate and deep balls to me. They're not always accurate, and they don't always come out on time, but they aren't wounded ducks either.

People criticize his decision making, and here I'm much more inclined to agree. Pryor has not consistently demonstrated good decision making or anticipation in the passing game. Even in the Oregon game, his best as a collegiate, Pryor struggled to read progressions when his initial target was covered. He is, or at least was, still a read and run quarterback. But he didn't always run, and that lead to negative plays. He also made some poor decisions to take sacks instead of giving up on plays. He'll have to learn that you can't always make something out of nothing.

Pryor also had a tendency towards making big mistakes in bad situations. There are times when you can force throws and times when you just can't. Deep in your own territory or in the red zone, you can't turn it over. You can't take away points and you can't, can't, can't give the other team points. He will have to be smarter and more instinctive, and I think he will.

This is Pryor's team, and this is arguably the best supporting cast he's had. Granted, there is no Beanie Wells on this team, but outside of a clear cut workhorse back, this team is more skilled than even the 2008 team that narrowly lost to Texas. Devier Posey has the potential to be an elite #1 receiver. 70 catches and 1000 yards is not unreasonable. Dan Sanzenbacher should provide a solid #2 target, though his 18.7 yards per catch will hard to duplicate. Jake Stoneburner should provide more of a pass catching threat from the Tight End position than anyone in the Tressel era. Brandon Saine, especially, provides a dynamic weapon catching the ball out of the backfield, so the weapons are there.

The play of the offensive line will be key, especially the Left Tackle position, and was a major culprit for some of Pryor's poor play last year. I can't remember how many different starting lineups they had last year, but you have to envision more stability this season. However the names shake out, the play should be better. The running game will feature more and better options than Boom Herron as well, which will only help the passing game.

So where am I going with this? Well, it wouldn't be any fun unless we did some projections for Mr. Pryor, right? To do this, I thought we'd look at a reasonably comparable player: Vince Young. Okay, I'm not saying that Terrelle Pryor will end up in the same conversation as one of arguably the greatest college players ever, only that Young is often mentioned when discussing the growth of Pryor.

When you look at the numbers in the context of progression from year to year, there are some interesting correlations. Not necessarily comparing the numbers themselves too closely per se, but looking at the season to season improvements. Young was clearly a better runner statistically, but to this point in his career, Pryor is the better passer. Scary, I know.

Young split time at quarterback as a redshirt freshman in 2003, and started outright in 2004 and 2005, after which he turned pro. Pryor, of course, split time as a true freshman in 2008 and took over as starter last season. So for this exercise we'll compare this pairs first two seasons and look at Young's third for a preview of Pryor's.

Young 2003
84 completions/143 attempts 1,155 yards 6 TD 7 Int 135 Rushes 998 Yds 11 TD
Chance Mock had more completions and attempts, and Cedric Benson led the team in rushing.
Young 2004
148 comp/250 att 1,849 yards 12 TD 11 Int 167 Rushes 1079 Yds 14 TD
Cedric Benson led the team in rushing
Young 2005
212 comp/325 att 3,036 yards 26 TD 10 Int 155 Rushes 1050 Yds 12 TD
Young led the team in rushing, the only rusher over 1,000 yards (Jamaal Charles had 878)

Progression analysis:
Young steadily increased the number of attempts, completions and touchdowns in his three seasons, while his rushing attempts and touchdowns actually went down his third year, indicating his growing confidence in his passing ability. His rushing remained effective at nearly 7 yards per carry through his career, with nearly 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns each season. The huge jump statistically came in the passing touchdowns (26) with fewer interceptions in 75 more attempts as a passer in his third year. His total of 38 touchdowns in extremely impressive, though not totally surprising given the loss of Cedric Benson to the NFL. Young was also surrounded by NFL talent at both the Wide Receiver and Tight End positions throughout his career.


Pryor 2008
100 completions/165 attempts 1,311 yards 12 TD 4 Int 139 Rushes 631 Yds 6 TD
Pryor had more completions than Todd Boeckman had attempts. Wells led the team in rushing.

Pryor 2009
167 comp/295 attempts 2,094 yards 18 TD 11 Int 162 Rushes 779 Yds 7 TD
Pryor led team in rushing, no one close to 1,000 yards.

Progression analysis:

Pryor, like Young, split time as a first year player, though he was a true freshman not having the benefit of a redshirt year to learn the offense. While he isn't, and probably will never be the runner Young was, the 12 TD to 4 Int ratio is impressive over more attempts and completions than Young's first year. While Young increased his attempts by 105 between years one and two, Pryor threw it 130 more times (and that doesn't include the 37 attempt Rose Bowl). Pryor too, lost a premier running back to the NFL though it didn't happen to Young until year three. Pryor also had an extremely young receiving corp, which helped contribute to a drop in completion percentage and an increase in interceptions. Pryor was actually a more effective runner in year two, averaging more yards per carry and an additional score.

So what does 2010 potentially look like? Well, one key stat is going to be yards per attempt. For Young, he went from 8.1 in 2003 to 7.3 in 2004 to 9.3 in 2005. That was the key to the almost 1,200 yard increase in passing yards. Pryor averaged 7.95 in 2008 and 7.1 in 2009. If he too, can get a roughly 2 yard per attempt jump, you're looking at roughly 3,000 yards if he attempts just 30 more passes than last season. Here's what I'd predict if that's the case:

195 completions/325 attempts 2,958 yards 24 TD 12 Int 150 Rushes 750 yards 8 TD

(The 325 attempts comes out to roughly 27 per game. Tressel has said publicly he expects Pryor to throw it 25-30 times a game this season).

Over the entire season, I don't think these projections are out of line. I am calling for that elusive increase in yards per pass AND a corresponding increase in productivity and turnover prevention. I think he can do it in his third year in the system, with a stronger and more mature supporting cast. If he can make these improvements, you're talking about 32 total touchdowns.

Is Terrelle Pryor going to be a sharp passer every game? No. Is he going to have some monster games? You better believe it. Hopefully the offense is balanced enough that he doesn't have to be great every game to win. He just can't be awful, especially against good opponents.