Every Tom, Dick and Harry has a mock draft, and I will at least partially join the crowd. With the Carson mess, the labor mess, and the lack of anything (outside the draft) that you could classify as a normal offseason activity, this should make for an interesting weekend at the end of this month. One thing is certain for the Cincinnati Bengals: they have an opportunity to get some good players sitting #4 in this year's draft.
There are two things I'm near certain about going into the draft: Cam Newton will go to Carolina #1, and Marcel Dareus will probably not get out of the top 3 picks. The rest is a crapshoot. There are some very, very talented football players that are absolute top 10 material. It's all about team need/preference. Dareus would be my absolute first choice for the Bengals, as they've tried repeatedly to find an interior presence in Marvin's defense to no real avail. (John Thornton, Bryan Robinson, Sam Adams, Warren Sapp who chose Al Davis over Mike freaking Brown, Darryl Gardner, and Shawn Rodgers to name a few). I love Geno Atkins but I don't know if he's an every down 3 technique.
I suppose the best way to attack this is with the "if/when" game. OK, Newton goes one, Dareus goes two. Buffalo has the choice of Patrick Peterson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley, etc. or the QB Blaine Gabbert. Chan Gailey is an offensive guy, but his run defense was horrid last year and they have an incumbent QB (yeah, I know it's Ryan Fitzpatrick, but look at his numbers last year). I think they'd really like to see Dareus drop, but I don't think Denver is going to let that happen.
So...... Let's say they take Peterson. This is a bad situation for the Bengals because they have to choose to take Gabbert to replace Carson or address positions they need help with now. I'd go for help now, and take Robert Quinn or one of the receivers. Personally, I'm going on defense. My #1 receiver would be Jermaine Gresham (a la SD with Gates), and I loved what I saw from Simpson/Caldwell/Shipley. Add a dynamic pass rusher to Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, and you've got something that rivals the Steelers in terms of pressure on the QB. They'd eat Flacco and Roethlisberger for lunch with as many sacks as those guys take. Easy pick for me. Make due with the DT rotation you've got, or add to it later. Get to third down and it's lights out.
Let's say the go Gabbert. Peterson would be my guy. He's not the outside corner that Amukamara is, but god what that guy could do from the slot. Big enough to stop the run, big enough to cover tight ends, fast enough to blitz and cover backs and slot guys. This guy could be what Charles Woodson is for the Packers (okay, maybe not quite THAT good, but good). He's the most versatile defender in the draft. Plus the guy is a dynamic returner and a guy, like a couple other big time secondary defenders in the division I could name, that wants to take it to the house when he gets the ball in his hands. Add him to JJoe (who I believe will be back), Hall, Adam Jones, Reggie Nelson and Chris Crocker and that's one hell of a secondary. Call him a corner, call him a safety, I call him a dynamic playmaker.
Outside those two, I see no need for the receivers, Nick Fairley is boom or bust, Von Miller is a 3-4 guy, Amukamara isn't a top 5 guy, and I don't see a huge difference between the #1 QB and the #5 guy. Dareus, Peterson, Quinn, in that order for my team.
Worst case, Gabbert goes before Newton and he's available at 4. I believe the Bengals would take him. I will slit my wrists, not because I don't think he can be good in the league, but because this team will not be good again for a long time with him at QB. That would be a cursed, cursed pick. One I hope will be rendered moot by Carolina's need to find a better leader than Jimmy Claussen.
The second round (or late first with a trade) is where Carson really hurts this team. Without a QB, you have to look at spending this pick on either Mallett, Locker, Ponder, or Dalton. I'm not sure what kind of West Coast system this really is going to be under new OC Jay Gruden, but the old-school philosophy placed a high priority on accurate QB's with agility and mobility over the measureables. To me, that throws out Mallett. Yes, he's the best passer in the draft, but he's got Charlie Sheen baggage....no thank you. Really, his paltry mobility kills him in the West Coast. In Bob Bratkowski's offense, yes. This one, I hope not.
Locker's got real accuracy questions. So I think it's really down to Ponder, Dalton, or they wait on a guy like Stanzi. Mavin and Co. saw all three at the Senior Bowl (before Gruden), and may have a feel for one above another. I personally like Ponder as a guy that comes from a pro-style offense and is comfortable in play-action and with the required drops. He has durability issues, and he's a rookie, so it isn't without risk. The best case would be to get a veteran QB for this year and give either this year's pick, or Dan LeFevour if they still like him, an opportunity to gradually come in. But I really wish this pick could upgrade the other areas.
Guys like DT Marvin Austin, S Rahim Moore, or a tackle or guard prospect for the right side of the Oline would be great here. Really, projecting the draft beyond the first couple of picks is pretty pointless beyond addressing general needs. So here goes:
Offensively, QB, and the right side of the line are priorities. Hopefully Fat Andre Smith can give you a full season to finally settle the "bust" debate, but Bobbie Williams isn't getting younger and the jury's still out on Kyle Cook and the Mathis/Livings platoon. The only stud is Whitworth who continues to get overlooked for the Pro Bowl.
Defensively, I'd love to see the 3-techinque DT addressed though Geno Atkins might be able to develop into that guy (he was the steal of the draft last year). You can never have enough pass rushers and good secondary players. Safety is what everyone points to, but I like Reggie Nelson and Crocker if he's healthy. I think a real impact front 7 guy is what this team needs, with secondary the fall-back. LB will be interesting if they really are moving Rey Maualuga to the Mike. Right now, they almost have to unless Muckleroy is the guy.
You win this division with your defense and with your Oline, not with flashy WR's. Maybe one year, like 2005, but not year in and year out. So there it is, and the Bengals won't do any of it. Watch and laugh as they pick Julio Jones and Ryan Mallett 1-2 and my journey to the Dark Side will be complete as Mike Brown will have given me no choice but to find another team to root for. Postscript-Brian Weaver reserves the right to change this post, after the draft, to make myself look more smarter, or to add such generalities as to have covered any/all possible outcomes.
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