Admittedly, I'm not old school. I don't think a leadoff hitter has to be your fastest player. In fact, I don't really want my leadoff hitter to attempt a lot of steals. I know, crazy.
See, I'm a borderline sabermetrics guy. I say borderline because I can't actually calculate the standard mean or tell you what a Markov chain is. But what I can tell you is that some statistics matter, and using them correctly can make your team more productive. But don't take my word for it. Look at teams like Boston and Philadelphia, among several others, that have profoundly implimented the work of Saber guys like Bill James. Yeah, those teams have great players, but they also do some things that are very counter to "the Book" that old-schoolers like Dusty Baker strictly adhere to.
I want my leadoff guy to have a high On Base Percentage. That's my main criteria. Get on for my best bats. Set the table for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Jay Bruce, period. Just being on base disrupts the defense, and opens up holes for the hitters. Running is actually counter productive at the top of the order. Seriously. Why do you want your best hitters taking pitches just for the chance (the chance) for one additional base? Screw that, I want those guys to swing away.
You want speed at the bottom of the order if anything, preferably in front of a slap hitting singles guy. Why? Because you typically NEED to manufacture runs at the bottom of the order where the worst hitters live.
So this is a bit of a setup for the real purpose of this post. Dusty Baker potentially has a good lead off hitter on his team that he'd never in a million years consider. Drew Stubbs you say? Nope. Phillips? No, rather have him in the 2. Fred Lewis? Part-time vs. Righties, maybe. No, the guy I have in mind is Ryan Hanigan.
"You're on drugs putting a Catcher at leadoff", I can hear you say. Well let's talk about the alternatives before I give you my rationale for a slow footed leadoff. Stubbs. He stunk it up as the leadoff last year in his first full season, and is really a guy that's still learning to be a pro. He hit much better down in the order last year, and I'd give him another year there to gain his confidence. Plus, who needs a leadoff who hits homers? I want 3 run homers, not solo shots. He's much better hitting 6th or 7th. Phillips is a waste as a leadoff. He's OBP sucks, and he wants to hit to RF anyhow (behind a runner on first). Enough said. Lewis would be my choice when Hernandez catches, and only against Righties. Heisey can leadoff when he spot starts vs. Lefties when Hanigan is out.
Now here's why I like Hanigan in that spot. He has a .379 career OBP, and is second to only Joey Votto with a 13% BB rate (percentage of total at bats that result in a walk). Last year, Jay Bruce was the only other Red to be over 10%. Hanigan gets on base, especially against Lefties. He doesn't strike out much either. His career K rate is less than 12%, and his 10% rate last season was the best among regulars (Phillips was at 13%). So he isn't fast, who cares? He's on base for the big guns on this team. So he doesn't have power. You don't need homers from the leadoff spot, you need them further down the order.
If you bat him 7th with Janish and a pitcher to follow, who are you scaring? But you put Stubbs down there and you can't make a mistake. It makes everyone better. Here's the lineup I'd use vs. Lefties with OBP (from 2010).
1. Hanigan (.466)
2. Phillips (.321)
3. Votto (.393)
4. Rolen (.388)
5. Gomes (.372)
6. Bruce (.352)
7. Stubbs (.310)
8. Janish (.392)
But no, Dusty will role out Stubbs who hasn't been able to figure out Lefties because he's faster. You can keep the old "Book" Dusty.
**-Just for fun, here's my lineup vs. Righties
1. Lewis (.354 career vs. RH)*
2. Phillips (.336)
3. Votto (.442)
4. Rolen (.343)
5. Bruce (.353)
6. Stubbs (.338)
7. Hernandez (.360)**
8. Janish (.310)
*Hanigan or Heisey could also leadoff vs. RH. Hanigans OBP is still a respectable .379 and Heisey's is .389 (sample size?).
** I'd rather see Heisey vs. RH than Gomes, but Dusty and I disagree.
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