Might have to rethink my division winner picks, but I think St. Louis is one of the 3 or 4 teams in the league that can survive that kind of loss and still compete for the division. Why?
1. The division is overrated. It was horrid last year, and Zach Grienke and Matt Garza don't automatically make it better. A high 80's win total can still win this division.
2. Chris Carpenter is the ace of the Cardinals. OK, Wainwrights WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is better the last couple of years, but Carpenter is still the #1. I love Wainwright, but go look at his home/road splits last year. Carpenter is the one I'd take if I had to choose.
3. The Cards offense will be better this year. Pujols will be better, Holliday will be good, Rasmus will continue to grow, and I think Theriot can hit better. If they get anything decent out of Berkman, this offense will be fine.
4. Dave Duncan is the crusty Jedi Master of MLB. Whether it's a young guy like McClellan or a reclamation project like Snell, someone will give them at least league average production to lessen the blow. Who the hell was Jaime Garcia last year?
The verdict. They may be 4 wins worse in 2011 than they would've been, but I liked them for more than 87.5 anyhow. I'll take them at 86 or 87 to make things interesting in a division sure to disappoint.
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