Well, this has been a piss poor example of how to handle PR. We won't know exactly what happened until the legal "cases" work themselves out, but it's clear that this whole thing was mishandled. I suppose, in that vein, I shouldn't be surprised that the original presser and the second press release were such a cluster.
JT should've originally taken the same suspension as the players. Then they should've done the presser without taking questions. Or at least get the story straight about who the emails were sent to. And then, never let Gordon Gee speak again. His mouth has cost OSU major respect on two occasions....in the last year alone. Gene Smith might want to pick English over Ebonics, but that's merely a suggestion.
It's since come out that JT shared the emails with a mentor of Pryor's, so at least that part is consistent with his comments about caring for the players. I never doubted that. More will come out about this, I'm sure, but it's not really anything scandalous.
It's embarrasing, especially if it means vacated games, but it's not the end of the world. This is not paying players, this isn't cheating, this has nothing to do with recruiting violations. The punishment has come down, perhaps a year late for some. The point is that all the players are back and all parties will sit for 5 games.
Considering the legal implications, I'm not sure that some of the cover up wasn't legitimate. Whether wins are vacated by the NCAA will tell us if they agree or not. Until then, we wait......
Monday, March 28, 2011
Reds 25 man-amended
So they took Francisco instead of Alonso. Rolen is more fragile than Votto, and I suppose I'd rather see Francisco than Cairo. Still, I'm no Francisco fan. To me he's a left handed Willy Mo Pena. Dismal plate discipline with otherworldly power.
For me, I'm not a big fan of the Pablo Sandoval, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds type players. Give me 10 less homers for 30 points of average and 50 less strikeouts.
Oh well, I've already demonstrated where Dusty and I disagree. This is just another instance.
For me, I'm not a big fan of the Pablo Sandoval, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds type players. Give me 10 less homers for 30 points of average and 50 less strikeouts.
Oh well, I've already demonstrated where Dusty and I disagree. This is just another instance.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
A leading example of why I don't like Dusty Baker
Admittedly, I'm not old school. I don't think a leadoff hitter has to be your fastest player. In fact, I don't really want my leadoff hitter to attempt a lot of steals. I know, crazy.
See, I'm a borderline sabermetrics guy. I say borderline because I can't actually calculate the standard mean or tell you what a Markov chain is. But what I can tell you is that some statistics matter, and using them correctly can make your team more productive. But don't take my word for it. Look at teams like Boston and Philadelphia, among several others, that have profoundly implimented the work of Saber guys like Bill James. Yeah, those teams have great players, but they also do some things that are very counter to "the Book" that old-schoolers like Dusty Baker strictly adhere to.
I want my leadoff guy to have a high On Base Percentage. That's my main criteria. Get on for my best bats. Set the table for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Jay Bruce, period. Just being on base disrupts the defense, and opens up holes for the hitters. Running is actually counter productive at the top of the order. Seriously. Why do you want your best hitters taking pitches just for the chance (the chance) for one additional base? Screw that, I want those guys to swing away.
You want speed at the bottom of the order if anything, preferably in front of a slap hitting singles guy. Why? Because you typically NEED to manufacture runs at the bottom of the order where the worst hitters live.
So this is a bit of a setup for the real purpose of this post. Dusty Baker potentially has a good lead off hitter on his team that he'd never in a million years consider. Drew Stubbs you say? Nope. Phillips? No, rather have him in the 2. Fred Lewis? Part-time vs. Righties, maybe. No, the guy I have in mind is Ryan Hanigan.
"You're on drugs putting a Catcher at leadoff", I can hear you say. Well let's talk about the alternatives before I give you my rationale for a slow footed leadoff. Stubbs. He stunk it up as the leadoff last year in his first full season, and is really a guy that's still learning to be a pro. He hit much better down in the order last year, and I'd give him another year there to gain his confidence. Plus, who needs a leadoff who hits homers? I want 3 run homers, not solo shots. He's much better hitting 6th or 7th. Phillips is a waste as a leadoff. He's OBP sucks, and he wants to hit to RF anyhow (behind a runner on first). Enough said. Lewis would be my choice when Hernandez catches, and only against Righties. Heisey can leadoff when he spot starts vs. Lefties when Hanigan is out.
Now here's why I like Hanigan in that spot. He has a .379 career OBP, and is second to only Joey Votto with a 13% BB rate (percentage of total at bats that result in a walk). Last year, Jay Bruce was the only other Red to be over 10%. Hanigan gets on base, especially against Lefties. He doesn't strike out much either. His career K rate is less than 12%, and his 10% rate last season was the best among regulars (Phillips was at 13%). So he isn't fast, who cares? He's on base for the big guns on this team. So he doesn't have power. You don't need homers from the leadoff spot, you need them further down the order.
If you bat him 7th with Janish and a pitcher to follow, who are you scaring? But you put Stubbs down there and you can't make a mistake. It makes everyone better. Here's the lineup I'd use vs. Lefties with OBP (from 2010).
1. Hanigan (.466)
2. Phillips (.321)
3. Votto (.393)
4. Rolen (.388)
5. Gomes (.372)
6. Bruce (.352)
7. Stubbs (.310)
8. Janish (.392)
But no, Dusty will role out Stubbs who hasn't been able to figure out Lefties because he's faster. You can keep the old "Book" Dusty.
**-Just for fun, here's my lineup vs. Righties
1. Lewis (.354 career vs. RH)*
2. Phillips (.336)
3. Votto (.442)
4. Rolen (.343)
5. Bruce (.353)
6. Stubbs (.338)
7. Hernandez (.360)**
8. Janish (.310)
*Hanigan or Heisey could also leadoff vs. RH. Hanigans OBP is still a respectable .379 and Heisey's is .389 (sample size?).
** I'd rather see Heisey vs. RH than Gomes, but Dusty and I disagree.
See, I'm a borderline sabermetrics guy. I say borderline because I can't actually calculate the standard mean or tell you what a Markov chain is. But what I can tell you is that some statistics matter, and using them correctly can make your team more productive. But don't take my word for it. Look at teams like Boston and Philadelphia, among several others, that have profoundly implimented the work of Saber guys like Bill James. Yeah, those teams have great players, but they also do some things that are very counter to "the Book" that old-schoolers like Dusty Baker strictly adhere to.
I want my leadoff guy to have a high On Base Percentage. That's my main criteria. Get on for my best bats. Set the table for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Jay Bruce, period. Just being on base disrupts the defense, and opens up holes for the hitters. Running is actually counter productive at the top of the order. Seriously. Why do you want your best hitters taking pitches just for the chance (the chance) for one additional base? Screw that, I want those guys to swing away.
You want speed at the bottom of the order if anything, preferably in front of a slap hitting singles guy. Why? Because you typically NEED to manufacture runs at the bottom of the order where the worst hitters live.
So this is a bit of a setup for the real purpose of this post. Dusty Baker potentially has a good lead off hitter on his team that he'd never in a million years consider. Drew Stubbs you say? Nope. Phillips? No, rather have him in the 2. Fred Lewis? Part-time vs. Righties, maybe. No, the guy I have in mind is Ryan Hanigan.
"You're on drugs putting a Catcher at leadoff", I can hear you say. Well let's talk about the alternatives before I give you my rationale for a slow footed leadoff. Stubbs. He stunk it up as the leadoff last year in his first full season, and is really a guy that's still learning to be a pro. He hit much better down in the order last year, and I'd give him another year there to gain his confidence. Plus, who needs a leadoff who hits homers? I want 3 run homers, not solo shots. He's much better hitting 6th or 7th. Phillips is a waste as a leadoff. He's OBP sucks, and he wants to hit to RF anyhow (behind a runner on first). Enough said. Lewis would be my choice when Hernandez catches, and only against Righties. Heisey can leadoff when he spot starts vs. Lefties when Hanigan is out.
Now here's why I like Hanigan in that spot. He has a .379 career OBP, and is second to only Joey Votto with a 13% BB rate (percentage of total at bats that result in a walk). Last year, Jay Bruce was the only other Red to be over 10%. Hanigan gets on base, especially against Lefties. He doesn't strike out much either. His career K rate is less than 12%, and his 10% rate last season was the best among regulars (Phillips was at 13%). So he isn't fast, who cares? He's on base for the big guns on this team. So he doesn't have power. You don't need homers from the leadoff spot, you need them further down the order.
If you bat him 7th with Janish and a pitcher to follow, who are you scaring? But you put Stubbs down there and you can't make a mistake. It makes everyone better. Here's the lineup I'd use vs. Lefties with OBP (from 2010).
1. Hanigan (.466)
2. Phillips (.321)
3. Votto (.393)
4. Rolen (.388)
5. Gomes (.372)
6. Bruce (.352)
7. Stubbs (.310)
8. Janish (.392)
But no, Dusty will role out Stubbs who hasn't been able to figure out Lefties because he's faster. You can keep the old "Book" Dusty.
**-Just for fun, here's my lineup vs. Righties
1. Lewis (.354 career vs. RH)*
2. Phillips (.336)
3. Votto (.442)
4. Rolen (.343)
5. Bruce (.353)
6. Stubbs (.338)
7. Hernandez (.360)**
8. Janish (.310)
*Hanigan or Heisey could also leadoff vs. RH. Hanigans OBP is still a respectable .379 and Heisey's is .389 (sample size?).
** I'd rather see Heisey vs. RH than Gomes, but Dusty and I disagree.
Projecting the Reds Opening Day 25 man roster
The Reds won't need 5 starting pitchers to start the season, so like last year, I expect 11 pitchers and 14 position players for the first 3 weeks or so. Here's the roster I'd expect:
OF-(6)
Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce.
Reserves-Heisey (CF, LF, RF), Lewis (LF), Hermida (RF)*
*-This is the only question spot. I'd personally like to see this last position spot go to Yonder Alonso if he's playing a more reasonable LF by the time camp breaks. He can also back up Votto at first, as right now the only other 1B options are Cairo and Hernandez. However, this is Dusty Baker, lover of all veterans, so expect Hermida. Oh, and Hermida can only play RF. Give me reserves who are versatile....please.
IF-(6)
Rolen, Janish, Phillips, Votto.
Reserves-Cairo (3B, 2B, 1B), Renteria (SS, 2B)
C-(2)
Hernandez (1B), Hanigan
SP-
Volquez, Arroyo, Wood-L*, Bailey
*-I expect Cueto to start on the 15 day DL. That would be 2 weeks to recover and another week for rehab starts, which roughly corresponds with the need for the 5th starter. His injury helps make the last SP slot argument moot.
RP-
Cordero, Chapman-L, Masset, Burton, Arredondo, Bray-L*, Willis-L*
*-Okay, I'm projecting both Bray and Willis go North which may not happen because there really isn't a "long man" in this pen. However, who's the loogy (lefty one out guy) if not Willis? Bray isn't (he's actually better against RH in his career), and Arredondo had one good year, one TJ surgery ago, to look at where he dominated lefties. And he's right handed. Willis is the only one who looks like a one out specialist. You sure as heck don't want to waste Chapman in that role.
In this set up, you could let the first three weeks play out before making any roster moves. Cueto will not require another pitcher to be moved when he comes up. But if Bailey, or one of these other relievers don't pitch well, Mike Leake and others are waiting in Louisville.
I'd rather have the flexibility of extra lefties than a dedicated "long man". Either way, you have to be excited about the arms at the end of this bullpen. If they can throw strikes, they are going to shorten a lot of games for a team that can absolutely repeat as division champs.
OF-(6)
Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce.
Reserves-Heisey (CF, LF, RF), Lewis (LF), Hermida (RF)*
*-This is the only question spot. I'd personally like to see this last position spot go to Yonder Alonso if he's playing a more reasonable LF by the time camp breaks. He can also back up Votto at first, as right now the only other 1B options are Cairo and Hernandez. However, this is Dusty Baker, lover of all veterans, so expect Hermida. Oh, and Hermida can only play RF. Give me reserves who are versatile....please.
IF-(6)
Rolen, Janish, Phillips, Votto.
Reserves-Cairo (3B, 2B, 1B), Renteria (SS, 2B)
C-(2)
Hernandez (1B), Hanigan
SP-
Volquez, Arroyo, Wood-L*, Bailey
*-I expect Cueto to start on the 15 day DL. That would be 2 weeks to recover and another week for rehab starts, which roughly corresponds with the need for the 5th starter. His injury helps make the last SP slot argument moot.
RP-
Cordero, Chapman-L, Masset, Burton, Arredondo, Bray-L*, Willis-L*
*-Okay, I'm projecting both Bray and Willis go North which may not happen because there really isn't a "long man" in this pen. However, who's the loogy (lefty one out guy) if not Willis? Bray isn't (he's actually better against RH in his career), and Arredondo had one good year, one TJ surgery ago, to look at where he dominated lefties. And he's right handed. Willis is the only one who looks like a one out specialist. You sure as heck don't want to waste Chapman in that role.
In this set up, you could let the first three weeks play out before making any roster moves. Cueto will not require another pitcher to be moved when he comes up. But if Bailey, or one of these other relievers don't pitch well, Mike Leake and others are waiting in Louisville.
I'd rather have the flexibility of extra lefties than a dedicated "long man". Either way, you have to be excited about the arms at the end of this bullpen. If they can throw strikes, they are going to shorten a lot of games for a team that can absolutely repeat as division champs.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
2005....what could've been
Words from our fearless leader after the 2005 season, and the signing of a six year extension (with three years left on his contract):
"Hopefully this is the last place I'll end up playing," Palmer said. "That's so rare in this league these days. It's so rare to see a person have a 5-, 8-, 10-, 12-year career in one place. And I feel very fortunate that it looks like that's going to be my future."
Now every contract extension given to the offense after that season has officially blown up in Mike Brown's face. Unfortunately I don't blame him for any of them. But this is one of the few times I'll give him any credit.
Enjoy your retirement Carson. Actually, don't.....
"Hopefully this is the last place I'll end up playing," Palmer said. "That's so rare in this league these days. It's so rare to see a person have a 5-, 8-, 10-, 12-year career in one place. And I feel very fortunate that it looks like that's going to be my future."
Now every contract extension given to the offense after that season has officially blown up in Mike Brown's face. Unfortunately I don't blame him for any of them. But this is one of the few times I'll give him any credit.
Enjoy your retirement Carson. Actually, don't.....
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